DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF THE ISSUE AND OPTIONS ON COMMERCIALIZING THE CIVIL WEATHER SATELLITES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84M00396R000300020005-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 1, 2008
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 1, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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DICUSSION AND ANALYSIS
OF THE
ISSUE AND OPTIONS
ON
COMMERCIALIZING
THE
CIVIL WEATHER SATELLITES
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I. Discussion of Issue
There are major policy, market, and potential cost saving differences bet-
ween the land remote sensing system and the civil weather satellite programs
which raise significant policy concerns over commercialization of the civil
weather satellites:
o While important national security concerns may arise as the land system
technology advances, commercialization of the civil weather satellite programs
will raise important national security concerns over military dependence (as a
backup to military satellite systems) on a commercial system observing weather
data critical to strategic, tactical, and intelligence missions, and over the
ability of the Federal Government to control this important source of infor-
mation in a national emergency. Concerns of the Department of Defense with
respect to national security issues are discussed in a classified attachment to
the CCCT Decision Memorandum.
o No negative international reaction to the commercialization of the land
program has yet been voiced. Several countries have already expressed concern
over commercialization of the U.S. civil weather satellites. It is not known
how widespread this concern will be. What position other nations will take on
the free exchange of weather data from satellites and other sources with U.S.
Government users is also unknown. Upward of 100 nations now receive weather
data from U.S. satellites. If these nations were charged significant amounts
for U.S. weather satellite data, they might either terminate the present inter-
national free flow of other weather observations that are essential to U.S.
civil and military weather programs, or charge the U.S. Government for global
data which it now receives without cost.
o Revenues from non Federal users to the operator of the land system in FY
1983 are projected to be between 40 to 50 percent of the total receipts. This
figure is expected by some sources to rise to 60 to 70 percent in the late
1980s. In contrast, the Federal Government would likely provide 95 percent or
more of the revenues from the sale of weather satellite data, at least during
the balance of this decade.
o Though land satellite data is used by a number of Federal agencies, such
use does not approximate the complex cooperative arrangements for the sharing of
meteorological data that now exists among a number of Federal users. Cooper-
ative programs include the above-described backup use of civil polar orbiting
systems by the military, the multi-agency sharing of hydrological data from the
GOES system and the planned shared processing of weather satellite data between
NOAA, the Air Force and the Navy.
In further considering this issue, the Working Group has considered the
complex interactions and linkages of weather services within the United States
itself, and between the United States and over 100 nations of the world. A
significant change in any part of this intergovernmental network could adversely
affect the overall effectiveness of civil and military weather services in the
United States. Changes in the availability of satellite data or services could
be catastrophic to the public, government agencies, and industry. Examples of
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these complex interactions and linkages are:
o Within NOAA, satellite data from both the polar orbiting and geostationary
satellite systems play a major role in the National Weather Service's
increasingly accurate and timely forecasts and warnings over the United
States. These data are indispensable in providing prompt warnings of
severe weather events and in preparing more reliable longer term weather
forecasts.
o Civil and military weather satellite systems are complementary and mutually
supportive. Both communities operate polar orbiting systems designed to
meet the unique needs of their respective service communities. Satellite
data are shared between the civil and military users. NOAA, the U.S. Air
Force, and the U.S. Navy have recently embarked on a formal shared data
processing program. The Department of Defense makes significant use of the
capabilities of NOAA's geostationary weather satellites.
o The Departments of Agriculture and Interior, the Corps of Engineers and NOAA
share hydrological data collected in regional networks of rainfall gauges
and stream flow gauges operated by each agency to meet their particular
needs. These data are collected by NOAA's geostationary weather satellites
and are provided to the various Federal and state agencies concerned with
flood forecasting, flood control, irrigation, and fresh water management.
o Increasingly, the Department of Agriculture and other agencies use NOAA
weather satellite imagery and information derived from satellite data,
along with Landsat data, in forecasting production of wheat and other crops
of great importance in international commodities trading.
0 National aviation weather forecast and dissemination responsibilities are
shared between NOAA and the Federal Aviation Administration . NOAA's
international aviation weather forecast area of responsibility meshes with
those of other nations under the International Civil Aviation Organization.
Civil weather satellites provide data that is indispensable in these
aviation services.
o Weather services provided by the private sector are based on NOAA's weather
satellite images and data, basic weather products, and conventional global
weather data.
o Almost all the governments of the world have freely exchanged weather data,
analyses, and forecasts for over a hundred years. For almost 20 years this
international data exchange has included weather satellite data. Both
civil and military weather services in the United States would be impacted
if foreign satellites and non-satellites data either were no longer
available, or available at a cost the Federal Government could not afford.
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o The dedicated satellite control facilities and data processing equipment
used for the polar and geostationary meteorological satellites are not
duplicated in NASA-developed Landsat-D equipment, nor in the equipment in
commercial communications satellite systems. Consequently, although the
aggregation of remote sensing satellites in the Department of Commerce pro-
vides a coherent focus for the activities, no elimination or consolidation
of equipment is feasible for the current generations of satellites.
o Modifications are presently underway in the method of incorporating
meteorological satellite data into the forecasts of the National weather
Service (NWS). These include changes in the data processing flow and the
polar-orbiting satellite's Equator crossing time to provide more timely
inputs to the Limited Fine Mesh model. They also include the transition of
the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) from
experimental to operational service. These activities are collaborative
efforts between the National Earth Satellite Service (NESS) and NWS, and
are not separable.
o Processing of data from the meteorological satellites is accomplished on a
large NOAA computer shared by NWS and NESS.
o Cooperative opportunities remain unexplored for the use of a foreign polar
orbiting satellite to complement the U.S. low-altitude systems, and to pro-
vide redundancy. The technology is available in Japan and Europe to pro-
duce and launch a unique, but compatible, polar orbiting metsat. Now that
the Administration has decided to reduce from two to one polar orbiters,
foreign entities, who are even more reliant upon the data than the United
States, may find this to be an attractive international effort.
o Federal procurement of data from a commercial operator may be more costly.
A private firm will require a return on its investment and for the fore-
seeable future will probably look to the Federal Government (which now
accounts for better than 95% of the market for weather satellite data) and,
in particular to NOAA, for such a return. If the Federal Government
adheres to its longstanding policy of cost-free dissemination of weather
data worldwide, it must compensate the private owner accordingly, thereby
increasing Federal costs. If it does not, the U.S. commercial entity pre-
sumably would charge other national governments for weather data. Both
NOAA and DOD might then have to buy weather data from other countries, with
a resultant net increase in cost to the U.S. Government to acquire the glo-
bal weather data needed for civil and military purposes. Further, some
economies related to government operation (i.e., DOD/NOAA joint procurement
of satellites and interagency processing of civil/military data) might not
be possible were the weather systems privately owned.
II. Discussion of Options
There are three options for further analysis of commercializing the civil
weather satellites: (1) initiate policy issues concurrently with preparing
the work statement used in the competitive selection process described in
OMB Circular A-76 to determine cost impacts, (2) after a preliminary analy-
sis of the policy implications of commercialization, initiate the A-76
process, if appropriate, and (3) reject further consider8tio of commer-
cialization of the civil weather satellite program at this time.
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Pros and cons of these options follow:
Option 1. Address the national and international policy issues associated with
commercializing civil weather satellite services concurrently with
initiating the review process described in OMB Circular A-76 to
determine cost impacts.
1. Avoids long-term policy studies which OMB, OSTP and NSC staff
believe are not required.
2. Allows decisions to be made several months earlier than under
Option 2.
3. Savings, if any, would reduce the Federal budget earlier.
4. Would provide a clear signal of the Administration's intention to
meet its civil weather satellite data needs from the private sector,
if it is cost effective to do so and policy considerations permit.
1. Allows only a very short time to assess carefully and resolve the
national security and national and international policy implications
of commercialization.
2. There may not be time to consider options or the future Federal
role in the provision of weather services.
3. Precludes consideration of other alternatives in reducing the total
Federal costs for weather satellite data, such as increased mutual
support of the requirements of the civil and defense sectors and
possible forms of internationalization.
4. The preparation of performance specifications to which a private
owner/operator must respond are complex and must be responsive to
the policy determinations. Premature statement of these require-
ments could result in a service that is not responsive to future
Federal needs. Subsequent amendment of these statements could
necessitate a new bidding process with the result that the avail-
ability of the required cost information could be delayed longer
than in Option 2.
5. Decisions made as a result of the A-76 bidding process will govern
government civil and military weather activities for decades to
come. Less than optimum decisions made prematurely could adversely
impact both civil and military weather activities. They could
result in greater rather than smaller long-term Federal costs.
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Option - 2 Conduct analyses on the national and international policy
issues associated with commercializing civil weather
satellite services, make preliminary estimates of the cost
impacts of various forms of commercialization, and, if
warranted, conduct the A-76 bidding process to determine
actual cost impacts.
1. Permits civil weather satellite policy decisions to be made
based on more comprehensive analyses of national security and
national and international issues.
2. Allows consideration of some alternatives other than commer-
cialization to achieve the goal of reducing Federal civil and
military expenditures for weather satellite data.
1. Decisions to commercialize civil weather satellite programs
would be delayed by perhaps six months. Savings, if any, would
be delayed that long.
2. Does not provide as clear a signal that the Administration
intends to meet its weather satellite data needs from the pri-
vate sector, if it is cost effective to do so.
3. Initiates in-depth, detailed policy studies which the OMB and
NSC staff believe are not required.
Option - 3 Conclude that the national security and international policy
issues associated with commercializing civil weather
satellites would so disrupt the complex linkages between
these satellite services and the civil and military weather
programs that commercialization would be unwise.
1. Avoids unnecessary national security problems which are con-
sidered by many to be very difficult to resolve.
2. Avoids an unnecessary and complex regulatory regime for the
private sector.
3. Avoids problems in the international exchange of data.
4. Avoids complications and legal problems associated with the
"freedom of information act."
5. Avoids military involvement in a commercial venture with
possible foreign policy implications. (See classified attach-
ment for further explanation.)
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6. Permits DOC/NOAA and other agencies to continue investigation
of achieving economies through cooperative weather satellite
programs such as shared data processing.
7. Permits the government greater flexibility in responding to
unforeseeable changes in weather services requirements (civil
and military).
8. Avoids a single private sector operator creating a monopoly on
weather satellite services and being in a position to dictate
future services and prices for those services.
1. One company has expressed interest in investing in both the
land and weather satellite programs as a composite business
enterprise. A decision not to commercialize the weather
satellite program might well dampen that company's interest in
Landsat.
2. Conceivably, private sector operation of the weather satellite
program could prove more cost effective than governmental
operation.
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