TECHNICAL MANPOWER STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84M00395R000600050034-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2007
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: February 24, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM FOR: Executive Director, CIA
23
c-~a ~
4,10
9
tt aG 3
DCI/ICS 82-4202
24 February 1982
igence Community Staff
SUBJECT] Technical Manpower Study
1. The Science and Technology Advisory Panel (STAP) has been asked by
the DCI to investigate the subject of the Intelligence Community's need for
technical manpower. This subject is part of the broader manpower issue which
was identified in the 1985 Intelligence Capabilities Study as requiring
special attention for purposes of long-range planning. Among the concerns
addressed in the individual agency papers submitted during the course of that
study, the requirement for technically qualified civilian manpower stood out
in terms of its universality and potential severity. (C)
2. The, Intelligence Community has a need for engineers, physical
scientists, and computer scientists to fill positions as analysts,
researchers, and contract monitors. The Community's ability to recruit and
retain qualified and talented manpower is likely to diminish during the decade
as the competition from the private sector for a dwindling supply of
technically qualified personnel becomes more intense. The situation is
serious, and will grow more so unless steps are taken now to address the
underlying causes. With your help, the STAP proposes to review the
Community's technical manpower hiring and retention practices. It will make
specific recommendations which could be translated either into specific
program initiatives, or into modifications of personnel policy procedures.
(C)
CONFIDENTIAL
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3. To accomplish this, I am asking for your assistance in responding to
the attached questionnaire for the Central Intelligence Agency. Where
possible, the Panel has asked for data on civilian personnel only; where they
have asked for categorical breakdowns, they are looking for consistency more
than precision. A report by the National Science Foundation on the supply of
qualified science and engineering manpower has been included to help place the
Community's concerns in context. In orde t facilitate the study lease
submit the name of your action officer to , of the
Intelligence Community Staff who is providing staff support to the project; he
will be available to answer any questions you may have about the
undertaking. A response by mid-April 1982, would be of great benefit. (U)
4. I am hopeful that this effort on the part of the STAP will result in
tangible benefits to the CIA and to the Community. (U)
Attachment:
a/s
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Director
Intelligence Community Staff
Washington, D.C. 20505
DCI/ICS 82-4203
24 February 19.82
MEMORANDUM FOR: Lieutenant General Lincoln D. Faurer, USAF
Director, National Security Agency
SUBJECT: Technical Manpower Study
1. The Science and Technology Advisory Panel (STAP) has been asked by
the DCI to investigate the subject of the Intelligence Community's need for
technical manpower. This subject is part of the broader manpower issue which
was identified in the 1985 Intelligence Capabilities Study as requiring
special attention for purposes of long-range planning. Among the concerns
addressed in the individual agency papers submitted during the course of that
study, the requirement for technically qualified civilian manpower stood out
in terms of its universality and potential severity. (C)
2. The Intelligence Community has a need for engineers, physical
scientists, and computer scientists to fill positions as analysts,
researchers, and contract monitors. The Community's ability to recruit and
retain qualified and talented manpower is likely to diminish during the decade
as the competition from the private sector for a dwindling supply of
technically qualified personnel becomes more intense. The situation is
serious, and will grow more so unless steps are taken now to address the
underlying causes. With your help, the STAP proposes to review the
Community's technical manpower hiring and retention practices. It will make
specific recommendations which could be translated either into specific
program initiatives, or into modifications of personnel policy procedures.
(C)
CONFIDENTIAL
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3. To accomplish this, I am asking for your assistance in responding to
the attached questionnaire for the National Security Agency. Where possible,
the Panel has asked for data on civilian personnel only; where they have asked
for categorical breakdowns, they are looking for consistency more than
precision. A report by the National Science Foundation on the supply of
qualified science and engineering manpower has been included to help place the
Community's concerns in context. In orde ease
submit the name of your action officer to , of the 25x1
Intelligence Community Staff who is providing staff support to-Me-project; he
will be available to answer any questions you may have about the
undertaking. A response by mid-April 1982, would be of great benefit. (U)
4. I am hopeful that this effort on the part of the STAP will result in
tangible benefits to NSA and to the Community. (U)
Attachment:
a/s
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Director
Intelligence Community Staff
Washington, D.C. 20505
DCI/ICS 82-4204
24 February 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Lieutenant General James A. Williams, USA
Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
SUBJECT:
Technical Manpower Study
1. The Science and Technology Advisory Panel (STAP) has been asked by
the DCI to investigate the subject of the Intelligence Community's need for
technical manpower. This subject is part of the broader manpower issue which
was identified in the 1985 Intelligence Capabilities Study as requiring
special attention for purposes of long-range planning. Among the concerns
addressed in the individual agency papers submitted during the course of that
study, the requirement for technically qualified civilian manpower stood out
in terms of its universality and potential severity. (C)
2. The Intelligence Community has a need for engineers, physical
scientists, and computer scientists to fill positions as analysts,
researchers, and contract monitors. The Community's ability to recruit and
retain qualified and talented manpower is likely to diminish during the decade
as the competition from the private sector for a dwindling supply of
technically qualified personnel becomes more intense. The situation is
serious, and will grow more so unless steps are taken now to address the
underlying causes. With your help, the STAP proposes to review the
Community's technical manpower hiring and retention practices. It will make
specific recommendations which could be translated either into specific
program initiatives, or into modifications of personnel policy procedures.
(C)
CONFIDENTIAL
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3. To accomplish this, I am asking for your assistance in responding to
the attached questionnaire for the Foreign Science and Technology Center, the
Missile Intelligence Agency and the Medical Intelligence and Information
Agency. Where possible, the Panel has asked for data on civilian personnel
only; where they have asked for categorical breakdowns, they are looking for
consistency more than precision. A report by the National Science Foundation
on the supply of qualified science and engineering manpower has been included
to help place the Community's concerns in context. In the
study please submit the name of your action officer to
of the Intelligence Community Staff who is providing staff support to
the project; he will be available to answer any questions you may have about
the undertaking. A response by mid-April 1982, would be of great benefit.
(U)
4. I am hopeful that this effort on the part of the STAP will result in
tangible benefits to Army intelligence and to the Community. (U)
Attachment:
a/s
25X1
25X1
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Director
Intelligence Community Staff
Washington, D.C. 20505
DCI/ICS 82-4205
24 February 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Brigadier General William E. Odom, U.S. Army
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence
Department of the Army
SUBJECT:1 Technical Manpower Study
1. The Science and Technology Advisory Panel (STAP) has been asked by
the DCI to investigate the subject of the Intelligence Community's need for
technical manpower. This subject is part of the broader manpower issue which
was identified in the 1985 Intelligence Capabilities Study as requiring
special attention for purposes of long-range planning. Among the concerns
addressed in the individual agency papers submitted during the course of that
study, the requirement for technically qualified civilian manpower stood out
in terms of its universality and potential severity. (C)
2. The Intelligence Community has a need for engineers, physical
scientists, and computer scientists to fill positions as analysts,
researchers, and contract monitors. The Community's ability to recruit and
retain qualified and talented manpower is likely to diminish during the decade
as the competition from the private sector for a dwindling supply of
technically qualified personnel becomes more intense. The situation is
serious, and will grow more so unless steps are taken now to address the
underlying causes. With your help, the STAP proposes to review the
Community's technical manpower hiring and retention practices. It will make
specific recommendations which could be translated either into specific
program initiatives, or into modifications of personnel policy procedures.
CONFIDENTIAL
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3. To accomplish this, I am asking for your assistance in responding to
the attached questionnaire for the Defense Intelligence Agency only. Where
possible, the Panel has asked for data on civilian personnel only; where they
have asked for categorical breakdowns, they are looking for consistency more
than precision. A report by the National Science Foundation on the supply of
qualified science and engineering manpower has been included to help place the
Community's concerns in context. In orde ase
submit the name of your action officer to of the
Intelligence Community Staff who is provi =LdTT Support to Tne roject; he
will be available to answer any questions you may have about the
undertaking.. A response by mid-April 1982, would be of great benefit. (U)
4. I am hopeful that this effort on the part of the STAP will result in
tangible benefits to DIA and to the Community. (U)
Attachment:
a/s
CONFIDENTIAL
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Director
Intelligence Community Staff
Washington, D.C. 20505
DCI/ICS 82-4206
24 February 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Major General John B. Marks, USAF
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence
Department of the Air Force
SUBJECT:
Technical Manpower Study
1. The Science and Technology Advisory Panel (STAP) has been asked by
the DCI to investigate the subject of the Intelligence Community's need for
technical manpower. This subject is part of the broader manpower issue which
was identified in the 1985 Intelligence Capabilities Study as requiring
special attention for purposes of long-range planning. Among the concerns
addressed in the individual agency papers submitted during the course of that
study, the requirement for technically qualified civilian manpower stood out
in terms of its universality and potential severity. (C)
2. The Intelligence Community has a need for engineers, physical
scientists, and computer scientists to fill positions as analysts,
researchers, and contract monitors. The Community's ability to recruit and
retain qualified and talented manpower is likely to diminish during the decade
as the competition from the private sector for a dwindling supply of
technically qualified personnel becomes more intense. The situation is
serious, and will grow more so unless steps are taken now to address the
underlying causes. With your help, the STAP proposes to review the
Community's technical manpower hiring and retention practices. It will make
specific recommendations which could be translated either into specific
program initiatives, or into modifications of personnel policy procedures.
 Approved For Release 2007/04/QQNFa[E-IAdUR64M00395R000600050034-4
3. To accomplish this, I am asking for your assistance in responding to
the attached questionnaire for the Foreign Technology Division only. Where
possible, the Panel has asked for data on civilian personnel only; where they
have asked for categorical breakdowns, they are looking for consistency more
than precision. A report by the National Science Foundation on the supply of
qualified science and engineering manpower has been included to help place the
Community's concerns in context. In order ease
submit the name of your action officer to , of the
Intelligence Community Staff who is providing staff support to the project; he
will be available to answer any questions you may have about the
undertaking. A response by mid-April 1982, would be of great benefit. (U)
4. I am hopeful that this effort on the part of the STAP will result in
tangible. benefits to Air Force intelligence and to the Community. (U)
Attachment:
a/s
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Director
Intelligence Community Staff
Washington, D.C. 20505
DCI/ICS 82-4207
24 February 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Rear Admiral Sumner Shapiro, USN
Director of Naval Intelligence
Department of the Navy
SUBJECT: Technical Manpower Study
1. The Science and Technology Advisory Panel (STAP) has been asked by
the DCI to investigate the subject of the Intelligence Community's need for
technical manpower. This subject is part of the broader manpower issue which
was identified in the 1985 Intelligence Capabilities Study as requiring
special attention for purposes of long-range planning. Among the concerns
addressed in the individual agency papers submitted during the course of that
study, the requirement for technically qualified civilian manpower stood out
in terms of its universality and potential severity. (C)
2. The Intelligence Community has a need for engineers, physical
scientists, and computer scientists to fill positions as analysts,
researchers, and contract monitors. The Community's ability to recruit and
retain qualified and talented manpower is likely to diminish during the decade
as the competition from the private sector for a dwindling supply of
technically qualified personnel becomes more intense. The situation is
serious, and will grow more so unless steps are taken now to address the
underlying causes. With your help, the STAP proposes to review the
Community's technical manpower hiring and retention practices. It will make
specific recommendations which could be translated either into specific
program initiatives, or into modifications of personnel policy procedures.
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3. To accomplish this, I am asking for your assistance in responding to
the attached questionnaire for the Naval Intelligence Support Center only.
Where possible, the Panel has asked for data on civilian personnel only; where
they have asked for categorical breakdowns, they are looking for consistency
more than precision. A report by the National Science Foundation on the
supply of qualified science and engineering manpower has been included to help
place the Community's concerns in context. In o
please submit the name of your action officer to
of the Intelligence Community Staff who is provi = I ~.UVPUrL LU Lne
project; he will be available to answer any questions you may have about the
undertaking? A response by mid-April 1982, would be of great benefit. (U)
4. I am hopeful that this effort on the part of the STAP will result in
tangible benefits to Naval intelligence and to the Community. (U)
Attachment:
a/s
CONFIDENTIAL
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SUBJECT: Technical Manpower Study
Distribution (DCI/ICS 82-4202
DCI/ICS 82-4203
DCI/ICS 82-4204
DCI/ICS 82-4205
DCI/ICS 82-4206
DCI/ICS 82-4207)
Original - Addressee
1 - D/ICS
1 - OP Subject
1 - OP Chrono
1 - ICS Registry
DCI/ICS/0
(4 January 1982)
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The Recruitment and Retention of Personnel
with Scientific and Engineering Backgrounds
I. Present and Future Staffing
For purposes of this study, we have divided the Community's science and
technology population into the following disciplines and job descriptions:
ANALYST
RESEARCH
AND
DEVELOPMENT
CONTRACT
MONITOR
Computer Scientists
Physical Scientists
Engineers
-- Please complete the above matrix for your organization as of 30
September 1981. For each cell, provide the number of positions
authorized, and the number of positions that were filled as of that
date.
-- Please complete a similar matrix for your organization for FY 1987;
provide only the number of positions being requested.
-- In those instances where personnel shortfalls have existed for
prolonged periods, what measures has your agency taken to cope with
the situation? What have been the consequences of these measures?
What are your general recruitment procedures with respect to
technical personnel? .
What special efforts are being made to. attract the categories of
technical personnel listed above?
-- To what extent are professional groups being called upon to assist?
-- Is any one category more difficult to recruit than another? Easier
than another?
-- Are there administrative procedures or requirements that impede the
hiring of technical personnel?
III. Retention
-- What are the attrition rates in the above categories and how do they
compare with other categories of professional employees?
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-- What in the way of pay and incentives is being considered to reduce
the disparity between what is offered in the private and the public
sectors?
-- What is being done now or is under consideration in the area of job
enrichment directed specifically at technical personnel?
-- What other actions are being taken to retain these categories of
employees?
IV. Training
-- How would you characterize the objectives of that portion of your
training program directed at the categories of individuals under
discussion?
What in-house training do technical personnel receive to qualify them
for the particular job for which they were hired? To keep them
current in their technical field?
What opportunities exist for external training? To obtain an
advanced degree? To undertake independent research? To take a
sabbatical?
How is training, internal or external, integrated into an
individual's program for career development?
-- How do you assess your capability to fulfill your technical manpower
needs for the remainder of the decade?
-- Please feel free to comment on any aspect of this study not already
touched upon.
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 Approved For Release 2007/04/27: CIA-RDP84M00395R000600050034-4
II. Supply and Demand for Science and Engineering Personnel
Judged from an economic perspective, the Nation's sci-
ence and engineering labor force can be defined as being
adequate at any given time if there are enough trained per-
sonnel in all occupational specialties and at all degree levels
to produce the goods and services demanded by society.
Alternatively, we could attempt to derive science and en-
gineering personnel requirements by defining a set of social
objectives, regardless of whether those objectives were cur-
rently revealed in the marketplace for goods and services.
Such sets of social objectives might require that our society
use scientific and engineering personnel in ways that are
quite different than at present. One could then explore op-
tions for direct or indirect Federal intervention to create
actual jobs for the requisite number and mix of scientists
and engineers. However, there are a large number of com-
binations of social objectives and no unique, value-free way
to select one combination. as being superior to all others.
To define national needs in terms of alternative social ob-
jectives therefore implies a set of value judgments that
would have to be imposed on society and would be inap-
propriate for particular Federal agencies to make. For this
reason, this section assesses the quantitative adequacy of
the Nation's science and engineering labor force, now and
for the next decade; relative to the jobs that currently exist
in various science and engineering specialties, and the num-
ber that are likely to. be created by the market, given Federal
decisions being made now to increase defense expenditures,
to create a synthetic fuels industry, and to balance the bud-
get. These projections do not consider the effects on em-
ployment of the emergence of new technologies which can
offer more efficient ways to produce existing goods and
services or introduce new goods and services into the econ-
omy.
24
A. Current Balances Between Supply and
Demand
Summary of Current Situation
Four types of indicators were examined to assess the
current relative balance between the supply of and demand
for various occupational categories of science and engi-
neering personnel: (a) unemployment rates; (b) judgments
by employers of the difficulty of filling job vacancies; (c)
changes in relative salaries for new entrants into particular
fields; and (d) the mobility of personnel within science and
engineering fields and between science and engineering and
other fields. The first two indicators measure static condi-
tions at a particular time. The latter two reflect adjustments
made by the market to correct personnel shortages and sur-
pluses.
An assessment of current market conditions for science
and engineering personnel based on these sets of indicators
appears later in this section. Taken together with additional
information submitted for this review, they lead to the fol-
lowing conclusions:
? There are current shortages of computer professionals
at all degree levels and tight markets* at all degree
levels in most engineering fields.
? University engineering schools and schools and de-
partments which train computer professicnals are un-
Throughout this section the terms "tight market" and "strong mar-
ket" are used to indicate that employers have difficulties finding qualified
applicants to fill existing job openings.
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able to fill existing doctoral faculty positions, a con-
dition that reflects the strong industrial market in
these fields. Moreover, the American Society of En-
gineering Education reports that engineering and
computer departments are also experiencing difficul-
ties in retaining both their junior and senior faculty.'
In contrast, openings for Ph.D.'s in the academic
sector are scarce in all fields of the mathematical,
physical, biological, and social sciences.
? Employers in the industrial sector report that there
are more than enough qualified physicists, chemists,
mathematicians, and biologists. Trends in mobility
data, however, suggest that the demand for chemists
may be increasing faster than the supply. Despite the
adequacy of personnel in these broad fields, spot
shortages (particularly at the Ph.D. level) are re-
ported in several subspecialties, notably solid-state
and plasma physics, optics, analytical and polymer
chemistry, and toxicology.2
? The Department of Defense reports problems in re-
cruiting and retaining both civilian and military en-
gineers because of the generally superior career op-
portunities in nonmilitary employment.
? Many secondary schools report vacancies for teachers
in mathematics and the physical sciences, despite
ample supplies of people with bachelor's and mas-
ter's degrees in these fields' (Section V-D).
1. Unemployment Rates
Only about 1.5 percent of the 2.5 million scientists and
engineers in the 1978 labor force were unemployed, as
compared to 6.0 percent unemployment for the total civilian
work force.' The lower level for science and engineering
workers reflects their high degree of training relative to the
remainder of the work force as well as intense activity in
the Nation's science and engineering enterprise. The very
tight market for computer professionals was evident in an
estimated unemployment rate of only 0.3 percent. By them-
selves, very low unemployment rates are evidence more of
the general employability of scientists and engineers than
of generalized shortages. Other information is needed to
identify fields with insufficent supplies.
2. Reported Job Openings
NSF staff have asked employers of scientists and engi-
neers about the difficulty they have experienced in filling
job vacancies. In mid-1979, 27 large industrial companies
and research laboratories responded to an NSF survey on
this subject. All industrial employers who reported about
engineers, and computer professionals said that both cate-
gories were in short supply. Supporting evidence of short-
ages of engineers came from the Engineering Manpower
Commission,' the College Placement Council,? and the
National Research Council.' The U.S. Department of La-
bor's designation of several engineering subfields as "hard-
to-fill occupations" also indicates shortages. Employers in
the industrial sector indicated generally ample supplies of
physicists, biologists, chemists, and mathematicians, though
(as already noted) spot shortages are reported in several
subspecialties."
In correspondence with representatives of schools of en-
gineering and departments of computer science in 1979,
NSF staff have found widespread expressions of severe dif-
ficulty in finding doctoral faculty. The large numbers of
vacancies reflect not only the generally tight markets in
these fields, but also the disadvantage of universities in
competing with industrial employers who pay much higher
salaries and who frequently offer superior facilities and re-
search support to doctoral engineers and computer profes-
sionals. Contributing to the shortages of engineering faculty
was a drop in doctoral awards in this field of 25 percent
(3338 to 2494) between 1973 and 1979. In the latter year,
approximately one-third of the new Ph.D.'s were nonim-
migrant foreign students.'
Short papers contributed by several Federal agencies for
this study contained similar reports of the tight market for
engineers. In the defense agencies, problems in recruiting
and retaining both civilian and military engineers are ag-
gravated by low starting salaries, low promotion rates, and
often outmoded facilities for research and development.
The Department of Energy stresses the need for engineers,
particularly at the advanced degree level, to carry out re-
search and development for the Nation's synthetic fuel pro-
gram (Appendix D-4).
Two indicators--changing relative salaries (3. below)
and patterns of mobility between fields of training and fields
of employment (4. below)-provide evidence of the ad-
justments made by labor markets to alleviate shortages and
surpluses.
3. Salary Data
Economic theory predicts that salaries in a field with
shortages, 'or high demand, will rise relative to salaries in
nonshortage fields. Salaries for new employees are more
flexible than are those for experienced workers and, there-
fore, reflect changes in market conditions more closely.
From 1974 through 1979, according to data from the Col-
lege Placement Council, starting salaries for baccalaureate
computer professionals and chemical, electrical, and me-
chanical engineers rose from 53 to 58 percent as compared
to 37 and 42 percent rises for bachelor's degree holders in
business and the humanities, respectively. 10 These data also
indicated a 51 percent increase in salaries for mathematics
and chemistry baccalaureates and a 41 percent increase for
those with degrees in biology, 38 percent for the social
sciences, and 33 percent for the agricultural sciences.
4. Field Mobility Measures
Many new graduates, at all degree levels, choose to enter
fields different from those in which they were educated.
Such mobility across disciplines reflects market conditions
in the chosen field of employment relative to the field of
training as well as personal preferences. The ratio of the
number of science and engineering graduates who enter the
labor force in a particular field to the number earning de-
grees in the same discipline is an indicator of that field's
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b
l
a
ance betweed the supply of graduates and the demand
for new workers, as well as the case of transferring between
fields. By this measure, there has been a marked shortage
of degree recipients in the computer professions.
An NSF survey found that there were 2.7 times as many
1977 baccalaureates working in the computer professions
in 1979 as had earned bachelor's degrees in that field two
years earlier." At the master's degree level, the ratio was
1.6. These figures are the result of many 1977 science and
engineering graduates in other fields switching to exploit
superior job opportunities in the computer profession.
(These two figures as well as those below were adjusted to
exclude those engaged in full-time graduate study in 1979.)
In engineering and chemistry, the corresponding ratios were
all near 1, indicating strong markets in those two fields. By
contrast, the following pairs of ratios for bachelor's and
master's recipients were found in other fields: physics, .3
and .3; mathematical sciences, .2 and .4; environmental
sciences, .5 and .8; biology, .3 and .6; psychology, .1 and
.5; and economics, .2 and .6. (In these other fields, a mas-
ter'
d
s
egree is often the minimum educational requirement
so the very low ratios at the baccalaureate level may ov-
erstate the relative lack of attractive job opportunities.) At
the doctoral level, the most marked field switching has been
to the computer professions. In 1979, about 3.5 times as
many Ph.D.'s worked as computer professionals as had
ever earned degrees in the field. The largest relative exodus
occurred from physics and astronomy, which had only
about 70 percent as many working in those fields as had
earned degrees in them.,
B. Projected Supply and Demand for
Scientists and Engineers in 1990
Projections of the future balance between the supply of
and demand for scientists and engineers point out those
fields in which shortages of science and engineering per-
sonnel may prevent the U.S. from meeting important na-
tional goals. If projections indicate potential shortages, a
decision can be made about whether the Federal Govern-
ment should intervene to prevent the projected shortfall.
Because of the length of time required to train scientists
and engineers, efforts to increase supply can only have an
effect after several years-hence the need to anticipate
shortages well before they occur.
Summary of Projections
The projections described below indicate that in 1990 the
supply of scientists and engineers at all degree levels will
likely be more than adequate to meet demand in all fields
except the computer professions, statistics, and some fields
of engineering. These projections are summarized in Table
1.
In general, the number of new science graduates should
widely exceed the number who will be able to find jobs in
the disciplines in which they were trained. The projected
excess of graduates over jobs implies many with science
degrees will take employment not directly related to science
and engineering. Also implied is a continued upgrading of
the, level of training of the technical labor force. Baccalau-
reates would fill jobs once held by high school graduates
and doctorates would fill positions formerly held by those
with less training, often in positions unrelated to teaching
or research and development.
These projections indicate that for engineers with bach-
elor's or master's degrees, the labor market in 1990 should
be less tight than at any time since the early 1970s as a
result of faster expansion in the supply of qualified person-
nel than in demand for their services. Employers may have
difficulty, however, in finding graduates in some fields of
engineering, such as aeronautical and industrial, particu-
larly if defense programs expand rapidly.
Two sets of projections, one prepared by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, the other by the National Science Foun-
Table I
Projected Market For Scientists and Engineers in 1990
by Field and Level of Training
(ail scenarios)
Baccalaureates
and Masters
Physical Sciences ......... Adequate
Atmospheric ........... Balance
Chemical .............. Adequate
Geological .... . . . . . . . . . Adequate
Physics and Astronomy .. Adequate
Engineering .............. Adequate Uncertain
Aeronautical ........... Balance-Shortage' (Possible shortages
Chemical .............. Adequate
Civil .................. Adequate
Electrical .............. Adequate
Industrial .............. Shortage
Mechanical ............ Adequate
Metallurgical ......... . . Adequate
Mining ................ Adequate
Petroleum ............. Balance
Other ................. Adequate
Mathematical Sciences ..... Adequate Adequate
Mathematicians ......... Adequate
Statisticians ............ Shortage
Computer Professions ...... Shortage Shortage
Life Sciences ............. Adequate Adequate
Agricultural............ Adequate Adequate
Biological Adequate eq""?"'?'??? Adequate
Social Sciences ........... Adequate Adequate
Psychologists ........... Adequate
qOther ...... ??????..... Adequate
All Fields ................ Adequate Adequate
' Shortage under expanded defense spending assumptao only. eqNOTE: "Adequate" indicates that projected supply exceed, projected demand. "Balance..
indicates that projected supply is close to projected demand. ??Shonage?? indicates that projected
supply is less than projected demand. "I)ncertain?? is used for doctoral engineers because NSF
projects an adequate supply in 1990 where" BLS projects a shortage in 1955.
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Center for Education Statistics, and National
Science Foundation.
 an en ineers. These assumptions represent
lotion, differ as to whether in the future there will be an fairly extreme conditions. For example, the greatly ex-
ample supply or a shortage of doctoral engineers. expenditures for defense would be in a scientific
Some general limitations of all supply/demand projec- panded lions are discussed in Section II-C (below). None of these. " atechnologically
nondefenseand It
for tby 1 decreasedintense
is believed to invalidate the key projection findings pensated
marized in Table I. However, it is worth noting at the outset e should
and engineers employed bytset:ondarytschoole csci ol-
that the supply projections (discussed in detail below anect em-BLS
does
not j have Appendix A) assume that colleges and universities nderl 1 ;goe menian educational lost tutions by field Theomission
have the capacity to educate all students at both the u n- Y re ate ro ections is miti-ent in and graduate levels who want to obtain
degrees of acadeic
are gated by its inclusoonnin the pro ctions of Ph.D. utilization
in a particular field of science or engineering and ), since
Ph.
accou judged by those institutions to be qualified to do so. unwa~r (majority of thosel employed in higher educatnon.or a large
critics have suggested that this assumption may be projects that the umption, ranted for engineering colleges. They point to several fun- empUnder the loyment ofascientistssand engineBerss ro
en-
in science and en-
tors discussed in more detail in Section III-B rig in occu ations and at all degree levels will grow by
dergraduate enrollments, falling levels of Ph.D. production, gineerg rep between 1978 and 1990. This growth
and faculty shortages indicate that these colleges may not about 40 percent
sciencesnew jobsabout in 50 mathematical
new jobs
be able to train all qualified applicants.12 In this case there would create aabout nd so 18
would be fewer engineers available in 1990 than the pro- physical, the
and 25
computer
engineering jections indicate, possibly resulting in continuing tight mar- lobs during the twelvesyear,period *OBat' the most rapid
growth, -about 110 percent, is projected for computer
kets shortages in specialties and, perhaps, serious personnel
shortages in a few few o of them. professionals. Employment of all engineers combined is
Projected 1990 Supply and Utilization of Scientists and projected to grow by less than 25 percent, with the most
rapid expansion for mining (almost 50 percent) and petro-
leum engineers (40 percent). Estimated growth in all other
With the combined efforts of three agencies-the Na- major subfields ranges between 19 and 28 percent. It should
tional Science Foundation (NSF), the Bureau of Labor Sta- be noted that many computer professionals obtain their de-
tistics (BLS), and the National Center for Education Sta- glees from electrical engineering departments. If demand
tistics (NCES)-projections have been prepared of the for these categories of computer professionals were com-
supply and employment of all scientists and engineers in bined with electrical engineeri ng, employment in ihet~ftet'
-1990. In recognition of the leadership provided by Ph.D.'s specialty would be projected to grow at a much greater rate.
in teaching, research, and management, additional projec- Among the sciences, gro wth is .put at 40 percent for
' -
--bons describe possible conditions in the 1990 science and psychologists, geologists, statisticians, and economists. atmos engineering doctoral labor market. ---"--- Occupations
phprojecte slow ysicists and as~onotmersCland mathe-
1. All Scientists and Engineers
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed two sets maticians, all of which are projected at 10 percent or less.
defense expenditures
of projections of the demand for scientists and engineers at Under the baseline assumption, personnel) pee it es
all degree levels in 1990. These projections (a Technical (excluding compensation of military pe
Note in Appendix A describes BLS projection methods)' -- percent, or $6 billion in 1972 dollars, between 1978 and 43 were carried out in a series of steps linking expected 1990.
effe t
$18 billion in 1972 dollars ahas expansion
gregate economic activity to output by industry to employ--_ percent,
projected employment except for aeronautical engi-
set by occupation. BLS produced the first, or baseline, upon set of projections in 1979. These projections start with a set. _ neers. Under this assumption, requirements for aeronautical
of assumptions covering the nature of economic conditions enginee-ers would
double tab ut 4 baselin0 expansion.
and Federal policy goals during the 1980s. These assump- twelve-year period,
include a decline in unemployment to 4.5 percent by To assess the possible impact of a col d goal upon the
tions to 2.4 science and engineering
1990 r
1990 and an annual increase in labor productivity Itc consulting with the Department of Energy, devised a hy-
Th
o
e P
Y n and
percent by 1985-1990 above the current rate.
ram
thetical
and gas f cation and of
for goals in the baseline projections do not include (1) a en ply of - new fac ile s o gar coal liqthe
augmented defense budget', (2) large-scale develop
b l ced Federal budget. shale development. The program, which is not intended to
an estimation of the impact 01 each goa up
tions to alternative assumptions, BLS deve ape h plus Openings for existing positions cre-
PoticY New jobs created by growl
alternative projections in which each of these three active workers. equal total job openings m-o goals was included one at a time. This procedure allowed "- ated by in Titian f-c ty =
1 n the utilization ported
o
-To assess the sensitivity 01 the base the I d a set of
- - - synthetic fuels; or (3) a a an 1? demand projec-
 Approved For Release 2007/04/27 :
represent any official Administration proposal for synthetic
fuels production, would produce about three quadrillion
BTU's. This would be about three percent of the total en-
ergy supply, including imports, projected by BLS to be
available in 1990, and equivalent to 1.4 million barrels of
oil per day (MMBPD). In contrast, the recent House-Senate
conference synthetic fuels bill sets a 1987 goal of 0.5
MMBPD and a 1992 target of 2.0 MMBPD.
BLS projections indicate that a synthetic fuels program
of the scale analyzed would have only a very small effect
upon science and engineering employment in 1990 and
would not alter the market assessments made under the
baseline projections. In assessing the effects of a large syn-
thetic fuels program, BLS assumed that existing technology
would be used in production facilities installed over the
next ten years. As a result, most additional employment
would be devoted to the construction and operation of new
plants. These two activities require only limited numbers
of scientists and engineers.
A final alternative projection assumes that the Federal
budget will be in approximate balance by 1983 and will
continue to be so through 1990. This is in contrast to the
baseline assumption that the Federal budget will have a
$32 billion deficit in 1980 that will decline to a $23 billion
deficit in 1990. The alternative assumption of a balanced
budget,. achieved through higher taxes and lower expendi-
tures, has no major effect upon projected 1990 science and
engineering employment, since the assumed changes in fis-
cal policy would affect the economy as a whole and have
relatively little effect on those industries with high concen-
trations of scientists and engineers.
The demand for new science and engineering graduates
between 1978 and 1990 was derived from estimates of 1990
employment. This demand would be for trained but inex-.
perienced workers to replace experienced personnel who
would die or retire and to fill the new jobs created in the
twelve-year period. Under both the baseline and alternative
assumptions, about 360,000 scientists and over one million
computer professionals and engineers, or a total of about
1.4 million scientists and engineers would be needed to fill
growth and replacement demand (excluding openings in
academia). These estimates of employment openings by
occupation are compared in Table II with projections by
NCES of the supply of graduates at the baccalaureate and
master's degree levels through 1990 in each field. NCES
projects that there will be about 3.4 million science and
engineering baccalaureates and 630,000 science and engi-
neering master's degrees awarded between 1978 and 1990
in the fields considered here. (A Technical Note in Appen-
dix A describes NCES projection methods.)
CIA- R D P 84 N100395 R 000600050034-4
ings. Such inter-field mobility would continue the patterns
of recent years. It is expected that such field-switching
would prevent the emergence of a tight market for statis-
ticians and would greatly diminish shortages of computer
professionals. Other fields with large projected surpluses
of graduates are agricultural sciences and natural resources,
biology, physics and astronomy, psychology, and, as a
group, the major social sciences. Baccalaureate chemists
will also far outnumber jobs although supply may be fairly
close to demand for master's degree holders in the field.
In all engineering fields, projected baccalaureates, in-
cluding those in engineering technology, are almost 1.8
times the projected baseline openings. (Supply projections
assume that engineering colleges will be able to expand
enrollment significantly beyond current levels.) Under the
baseline projections, only industrial engineers may have
fewer graduates than openings. An accelerated defense pro-
gram may push aeronautical engineers into a small 1990
deficit. Nuclear engineeers, a small subfield for which BLS
did not prepare separate projections, may also have future
shortages, according to the Department of Energy, because
many universities have eliminated their nuclear engineering
departments and more are scheduled to do so.13 Finally,
since many new engineers are likely to continue to seek
nonengineering jobs due to their own preference, the en-
gineering labor market in 1990 may be tighter than the
numbers in Table II would indicate.
A separate study supported by the Department of Agri-
culture considered current and future supply and demand
in many occupations other than agricultural science (the
only related occupation for which BLS and NCES projec-
tions have been compared here) for which agricultural or
natural resources training may be required. The Agriculture
study found that in 1985 there may be shortages of workers
with training in several job categories such as agricultural
engineering and food and agricultural chemistry."
2. Personnel Requirements under National Energy
Scenarios
Several studies commissioned by the Federal Govern-
ment have projected requirements for technical personnel
under various national energy scenarios. Three studies have
explored the personnel implications of large-scale programs
to substitute synthetic fuels for imported oil and one has
assessed the future adequacy of personnel supply in the coal
mining industry. These studies are reviewed below.
a. The earliest and most comprehensive of the four
studies was completed under an NSF contract in
mid-1977 by the Center for Advanced Computation
(CAC) at the University of Illinois. For this study,
Scientific and Technical Personnel in Energy-Re-
lated Activities: Current Situation and Future Re-
quirements, CAC combined its own highly disag-
gregated model of the energy sector with the BLS
employment projection model. This allowed CAC
to project requirements for scientists and engineers
in 1980 and 1985 for the entire economy under three
scenarios. This is in contrast to the other three en-
Table II provides comparisons of BLS and NCES pro-
jections by field. These comparisons point to two fields
with large deficits of people with bachelor's and master's
degrees: the computer professions and statistics. Such gaps
would be expected to attract large numbers of people with
training in other fields, particularly mathematics, where
degrees are expected to be many times larger than job open-
 Approved For Release 2007/04/27: CIA-RDP84M00395R000600050P34-4
ergy-related studies which looked only at the energy-
production sector. CAC describes the three scenarios
as quoted below.
usage increases to 84.1 qi. tdrillion Btu's in 1985.
Domestic coal prods ctlor>l increases substantially
more than in Free Imp is and nuclear power
grows substantially i;nore Oil imports are much
The Free Import Scenario assumes that energy lower under Limited,1mpP~~'rts.
consumption in the"United States increases from The Synthetics Sco~!io uses the same major
the 1973 level of about 73 quadrillion Btu's to assumptions as the Limited Imports Scenario but
99.1 quadrillion Btu's in 1985. Domestic energy in addition assumes a program of developing syn-
production increases, but the growth of imports thetic oil and gas that would produce a .9
of oil and gas are substantial. MMBPD (million barrels per day) oil equivalent
The Limited Imports Scenario assumes energy in 1985 and 1.8 MMBPD equivalent in 1990. The
Table H
Comparisons of Projected Job Openings With Projected Degrees in Science and Engineering 1978-1990
Job Openings, 1978-1990
(in thousands)
Scenario
Graduates. 1978-1990
(in thousands)
Level
Baseline
Assumptions
Accelerated
Defense
Spending
Synthetic
Fuels
Program
Balanced
Federal
Budget
Baccalaureate
Degrees
Master's
Degrees
Life and Physical Scientists
Agricultural ......................
16
16
16
16
193
Atmospheric .......................
5
5
5
5
5
4
Biological ..:....... ...............
38
38
38
37
637
78
Chemical .........................
63
64
64
63
178
26
Geological ........................
22
22
23
22
67
18
Marine ...........................
2
. 2
2
2
10
3
Physics and Astronomy .............
11
11
11
11
45
19
Total ..........................
157
159
157
156
1,135
182
Mathematical Sciences
Mathematicians ....................
3
3
3
3
102
27
Statisticians ......................
19
19
19
19
3
5
Total ..........................
22
22
22
22
105
32
Computer Professionals
Programmers ......................
300
302
300
299
NA
NA
Systems Analysts ..................
221
223
221
221
Other ............................
28
29
28
28
Total ............... ...........
549
553
550
547
110
47
Social Scientists
Psychologists .....................
76
76
76
. 75
490
111
Other' ..........................
100
102
101
99
628
58
Total ..........................
176
178
177
175
1,117
170
Engineers
Aeronautical ......................
24
35
24
24
28
NA
Chemical ........................
22
22
22
21
92
Civil ............................
95
95
95
94
134
Electrical ........................
121
128
121
120
172
Industrial ........................
94
98
94
93
48
Mechanical .......................
89
95
89
89
171
Metallurgical .....................
9
9
9
9
16
Mining ..........................
7
7
7
7
11
Petroleum ........................
it
11
11
11
14
Other ............................
59
61
59
59
115
Total ..........................
528
561
534'
525
928'
196
Total all Fields ......................
1,432
1,473
1,439
1,424
3.395
626
Includes ecooomi,u. pdiucd sciea ,u. and aoctoloaisu.
' includes 4.000 enaiaoen who am not distributed by field.
' includes 12!.000 engraeenna axhoobp degrees one distributed by field.
NOTE: EM.maes of openiap do as include academe anp o me . Diesel say rim add to beds became of rounding.
SOURCES: Naboad Scieaee Foandadoa. Bureau of Lobar Seatiuia. and National center for Eduction Suastia.
 Approved For R006 2D04127 :
1985 output is assumed to be .3 o s e
oil, .1 MMBPD of coal liquids, .3 MMBPD of
high-Btu gas, and .3 MMBPD of low- and medi-
um-Btu gas from coal (pp. 125-126, CAC report).
CAC found that, for the economy as a whole, the
three scenarios differed little in their requirements
for scientists and engineers in 1985. Moreover, the
differences were "in a direction that is counterin-
tuitive." CAC found that the "Free Imports" scen-
ario had slightly greater personnel requirements.
CAC explained that "Free Imports" had the highest
level of energy consumption of the three scenarios
and hence the highest employment for energy pro-
duction. This difference outweighed the higher con-
struction employment under "Limited Imports" and
"Synthetics" (p. viii). (It should be noted that Bech-
tel National, which prepared another study re-
viewed below, provided CAC the estimates of direct
requirements for personnel for construction under
the three scenarios.)
In 1979, the Department of Energy (DOE) com-
missioned four studies to assess the feasibility of a
national program to produce 1.0 MMBPD of oil
through coal liquefaction by 1990. For two studies,
contractors, Bechtel National and UOP working with
Syst,em Development Corporation (UOP/SDC), ex-
amined whether the lack of skilled manpower, par-
ticularly engineers, would impede meeting this goal.
All four studies are summarized and presented as
appendices in a March 14, 1980 TRW draft report
to DOE, Achieving a Production Goal of I Million
BID of Coal Liquids by 1990.
Bechtel and UOP/SDC both assessed material and
manpower requirements under current liquefaction
technology. Bechtel analyzed engineering demand
by subfield, chemical, mechanical, etc., whereas
UOP/SDC examined all "technical manpower" to-
gether. Also, Bechtel considered requirements for
both construction and operation of liquefaction
plants whereas UOP/SDC, which was concerned
with the chief potential impediments to meeting the
synthetic fuels goal, examined only construction em-
ployment.
b. In Production of Synthetic Liquids from Coal: 1980-
2000, Bechtel states that the supply of civil, elec-
trical, industrial, and mechanical engineers "should
be adequate" to meet the 1990 production goal (p.
4-8) although there could be major difficulties in
sufficiently expanding the employment of chemical
engineers. Bechtel calculates that the stated goal
could require a peak of 1300 additional chemical
engineers by 1984 (p. 4-4). For comparison, this
would be about two to three percent of the 1978
stock of chemical engineers and about 13 percent of
the latter who are engaged in "process design and
construction work"(p. 4-7).
CIA-R4P8 al uat03g9 R( ~ 2pqf& 4 is evident
that coal liquefaction of one MMBPD by 1990 might
cause some labor market adjustments. These might
be reflected in such developments as experienced
engineers being bid away from other jobs to the syn-
thetic fuels program and in inexperienced graduates
being asked to assume greater responsibilities more
quickly than might normally be the case. Such ad-
justments, however, are clearly to be expected
whenever any industry rapidly expands its level of
production. Only industries with large excess capac-
ities can assume major new roles without introducing
short-term dislocations in skilled labor markets.
c. In Feasibility Appraisal: Production of Synthetic
Fuel from Direct and Indirect Coal Liquefaction
Processes, UOP/SDC examined four different tech-
nical processes for producing 1.0 MMBPD by 1990.
This DOE-contracted study found that only one, liq-
uefaction through the "methanol-gasoline" ap-
proach, would require more than 20 percent of the
technical personnel, including engineers, employed
by the firms capable of constructing liquefaction
plants. This meant to UOP/SDC that the three other
approaches, as well as an equally proportioned mix
of all four techniques, would keep technical person-
nel requirements in. construction firms below the
"danger point" (p. 6-68B).
d. The synthetic fuels scenarios discussed above would,
if implemented, all require massive increases in do-
mestic coal production. Under a DOE contract, The
MITRE Corporation prepared the 1980 report, Man-
power for the Coal Mining Industry: An Assessment
of Adequacy through the Year 2000. For this study
MITRE developed a projection model which com-
bined systems dynamics and econometric tech-
niques. This allowed an analysis of personnel supply
and demand based on interrelationships between
technological change, labor productivity, production
costs, wages, graduation rates, and other key vari-
ables. MITRE found that a shortage of mining en-
gineers was unlikely by the mid-1980s. Only under
a combination of extreme circumstances would
shortages appear (Executive Summary, p. 4).
MITRE, however, warned that there is currently a
shortage of mining and mineral engineering faculty.
Based upon the above analysis of these reports, it is
concluded that these studies are consistent with the earlier
statement that "a synthetic fuels program of this scale
would have only a very small effect upon science and en-
gineering employment in 1990 . . .The supply of engi-
neers should be generally adequate to produce 1.0 MMBPD
by 1990, although there may be short-term dislocations in
some engineering fields, particularly chemical engineer-
ing.15
The Department of Energy is less optimistic on the sub-
ject of technical personnel available for the synthetic fuel
 Approved For Release 2007/04/27: CIA-RDP84M00395R000600050034-4
industry, noting that the synthetic fuels program will place
an early peak load on engineering capacity and will have
to be carried out by engineers who are now active (Appen-
dix D-4). Some of these engineers will have to be enticed
away from other sectors of the 'economy which, in the
opinion of DOE, could cause major dislocations in those
sectors. DOE's Office of Energy Research has recently
been given responsibility for energy-related personnel as-
sessments, and plans to pursue a number of technology-
specific projections during the next few years.
3. Doctoral Scientists and Engineers
Projections prepared by the National Science Foundation
in 1978 (the methodology is described in a Technical Note
in Appendix A) estimated that there would be more than
enough Ph.D.'s through 1987 to fill available jobs at that
level in four broadly defined fields: the mathematical, phys-
ical, life, and social sciences. These projections also indi-
cated that there would be more than enough engineering
Ph.D.'s in 1987.16 'These NSF doctoral projections were
extended to 1990 for the purposes of the present review.
The 1990 projections indicate that an increasing percentage
of science and engineering Ph.D.'s are likely to be em-
ployed in jobs that are not directly related to science and
engineering. (According to a recent NSF study, many
Ph.D.'s enter such employment because of their own pref-
erence.'') Results of these Ph.D. projections are summa-
rized in Table III.
The general findings of the NSF analysis for the four
broad scientific fields are very similar to 1985 Ph.D. pro-
jections made by BLS in 1978. The two sets of projections
differ, however, for engineering, where BLS foresees a
Ph.D. shortage.'S Because the NSF projections did not ac-
count for the continued strong market for B.S. engineers,
they may have overestimated future graduate engineering
enrollments and, hence, future doctoral supply. If so, the
market for Ph.D. engineers may remain tight through 1990.
It should be noted that computer professionals are in-
cluded under the mathematical sciences in these projec-
tions, even though (as already discussed) many receive de-
grees from engineering departments. Available evidence on
current graduate enrollments and industrial demand sug-
gests that computer professionals at the Ph.D. level will be
in short supply through 1990.18
C. Limitations of Projections
Projections are useful for making general assessments of
the future adequacy of the science and engineering labor
force. For this purpose they are subject to limitations stem-
ming from two chief sources. The first type of limitation
is generic to all projections. It is caused by the impossibility
of predicting all the events that may affect whateyer is being
projected, in this case the supply and utilization of scientists
and engineers. The second type, which affects primarily
the supply projections, results from an incomplete under-
standing of how students choose careers and how the sci-
ence and engineering labor markets function.
In regard to the first type, uncertainties associated with
national and world economic conditions can have major,
unanticipated effects on science and engineering labor mar-
kets. For example, the demand for and price of particular
goods and services might shift significantly, thereby shift-
ing demands for all workers, including scientists and en-
gineers.
The emergence of new technologies is another important
factor which can have a potential influence on science and
engineering labor markets. It may affect employment either
Table III
,Full-Time Science and Engineering Doctoral Labor Force by Field
1979 Actual and 1990 Projected
(in thousands)
i
l
S
Physical
Sciences
Engineering
Mathematical
Sciences
Life
Sciences
oc
a
Sciences
Total
Labor Force
1979
....................
73
49
21
79
83
306
450
........
1990 ...........: ..................
103
80
30
113
125
Sdence/Engineering Utilization
20
74
71
278
...................
1979
67
47
370
. .....
1990 .............................
93
63
23
93
99
Non-SdencefEngineering Utilization
3
1
5
12
28
...............
1979
.............
1990 .............................
10
17
7
20
26
80
Non-Sdenceitngineering Utilization as
Percent of Labor Force
6
14
9
..................
1979
9
6
..........
1990 ............................
10
21
18
21
18
NOTE: Dead way act add to aala bccauae of mundial.
SOURCE Nationai Sneaoe rwuod+tioa.
 Approved For Release 2007/04/27: CIA-RDP84M00395R000600050034-4
by offering ways of more efficiently producing existing
goods or services or through the introduction of new goods
or services. To exploit these technical innovations, occu-
pational specialities that do not now exist may emerge or
openings in existing occupations may grow or decline un-
expectedly. Thus technological change may cause market
imbalances that cannot be foreseen when projections are
made.
With regard to the second type of limitation, the NCES
projections of baccalaureate and master's degree recipients
do not account for how the market leads students into those
fields with shortages and away from fields with poorer job
opportunities. Therefore, the projections of new graduates,
except at the doctoral level where adjustments are made by
NSF for market effects, have a tendency to overstate both
future shortages and surpluses. Also, current methods of
projecting supply can make only crude adjustments for the
widespread flow of students from the fields of their training
to the other fields where they choose to work. These flows
are often substantial when fields differ greatly in their rel-
ative balances between supply and demand. Additionally,
forecasters are unable to predict how factors, such as public
opinion about the role of science and technology in society,
may affect the flows of new graduates.
Finally, _ the projections of engineering graduates pre-
sented in this report assume that engineering schools will
be able to expand their enrollments sufficiently to meet
projected class sizes. Some specialists question the validity
of this assumption.20 Several reviewers also believe that the
current excess demand for computer professionals and en-
gineers is likely to continue and may become more severe.21
In sum, such projections are adequate to the extent that
assumptions are accurate and past trends continue; they can-
not anticipate unforeseen structural breaks with past trends.
However, we believe the general conclusions of this anal-
ysis stand in spite of these limitations and possibilities.
They are based on such wide differences between projected
graduates and job openings that only very large projection
errors could invalidate them. In summary, the main points
are: (a) in 1990 the demand for computer professionals is
likely fo be greater than the supply of those trained in the
field; (b) the labor market for a few categories of engineers
should not be tight; and (c) the supply of scientists in all
broadly defined fields should exceed requirements.
D. Quality Considerations
Assessments of the qualitative adequacy of the Nation's
science and engineeering labor force necessarily require ref-
erences to a set of norms. Examples of norms might include
statements such as: (a) all college majors in science and
engineering should be drawn from the top 15 percent of
their high school class; (b) all college and university science
and-engineering faculty should have Ph.D. degrees; or (c)
all personnel who enter science and engineering occupa-
tional specialties should have degrees in those specialties.
In one sense, the quality of our science and engineering
labor force can never be completely adequate because the
Nation can always benefit from an improvement in the
training and ability of science and engineering teachers,
researchers, and other workers. Thus, any evaluation of the
qualitative adequacy of the supply of scientists and engi-
neers should be constrained by a recognition of the com-
peting claims from other sectors of society for highly qual-
ified people, the costs of training scientists and engineers,
and the possible personal costs to those who regard them-
selves as underemployed, because they are not working in
fields or specialities for which they were trained.
No indicators are available to measure or predict the fu-
ture quality of American scientists and engineers. However,
we do know a great deal about past U.S. scientific accom-
plishments. In the 35 years since the end of World War H,
this country has established and maintained preeminence in
many fields of knowledge. Evidence of U.S. scientific and
technological leadership is found, to cite a few examples,
in the record of the manned space-flight program, the con-
tinuing dramatic improvement in computer engineering,
breakthroughs in our understanding of genetic processes,
and new insights into the fundamental structure of matter.
In recognition of pioneering work such as that cited above,
American scientists and engineers have won 51 percent of
the Nobel Prizes, excluding the prizes for peace and eco-
nomics, awarded in the post-World War II period. Publi-
cation activity and citation analyses provide additional evi-
dence of the past high level of productivity of U.S.
scientists and engineers.
On the negative side, several indicators point to a relative
decline in the technological advantage of U.S. industry
compared with its foreign competitors. These indicators in-
clude relative changes in labor productivity and relative
numbers of U.S. patents granted to U.S. and foreign ap-
plicants. No proven relationships exist between the quality
of the science and engineering labor force and industrial
productivity, though there are correlations, at least, be-
tween productivity and rates of research and development
investment.. However, it is at least plausible that the level
of technical competence of all workers in an industry, in-
cluding scientists and engineers, bears directly on the prob-
lem of improving industrial productivity. If so, then the
qualifications of students who intend to enter science and
engineering occupations are germane to the broad question
of the adequacy of science and engineering education for
long-term national needs.
Although it is clear that the current U.S. technical. labor
force contains a large share of the world's most productive
scientists and engineers, some observers question whether
the U.S. will be able to sustain this level of quality. Some
of these observers maintain that the most able students are
turning away from science and engineering to careers such
as business, law, and medicine. Evidence suggests that such
a sharply negative appraisal is not warranted.
The percentage of the science and engineering labor force
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holding doctoral degrees is one indirect measure of the abil-
ity of the U.S. to compete scientifically. A..labor force
better educated. in science and engineering is better prepared
to remain abreast of rapidly expanding scientific knowledge
and to explore new areas of exceptional opportunity, such
as recombinant DNA research. From 1973 to 1979 the num-
ber of active science and engineering doctorates expanded
from 223,000 to 317,000, or 42 percent. The rising extent
of advanced education among mathematical, physical and
life scientists was marked by a doubling between 1960 and
1978 of the proportion of Ph.D.'s in the natural sciences
labor force.
According to two indicators of the academic ability of
young people planning science and engineering study,
many able graduates will continue to join the science and
engineering labor force during the 1980s. One of these in-
dicators reflects the general scholastic capacity of future
scientists and engineers as they prepare to enter graduate
school. Another indicator is the record over the past 14
years of the college study plans of those high school stu-
dents selected as being the most capable in each year's
graduating class.
The large majority of applicants to graduate school take
the Graduate Record Examination (GRE) during their junior
or senior year in college. Over the eight-year period ending
in 1978, the test scores of prospective science and engi-
neering graduate students on the quantitative components
of the GRE remained high and unchanged both in absolute
terms and relative to the average scores of graduate students
in nonscience fields .21 In particular, candidates for graduate
study in the physical sciences, mathematics, and engineer-
ing scored much higher on average than did those planning
nonscience and nonengineering study. Undergraduates ap-
plying for admission to graduate life sciences programs
scored well below the levels of candidates in the three fields
above but still well above the average for nonscience and
nonengineering applicants. On the verbal portion of the
GRE, science and engineering applicants averaged about
the same as did those applying for study in other fields.
Each year the National Merit Scholarship Corporation
selects about 14,000 high school seniors as being the most
gifted academically in the Nation. From these finalists, a
fraction-about one-third in 1979-are chosen to receive
Merit Scholarships. In each year from 1966 to 1979 at least
41 percent and as many as 49 percent of the scholarship
winners indicated plans to major in engineering, the natural
sciences, or mathematics, including computer science sa
These figures do not include those planning preparatory
programs for the health professions or prospective social
science majors. The larger group of finalists has had similar
plans. In 1979 about 26 percent of both winners and final-
ists planned majors in the sciences and about 20 percent
planned to study engineering. Although many high school
seniors earn degrees in fields different from those which
they indicate on entry into college, science and engineering
continue to be attractive to many of the best students en-
tering college each year.
These indicators apply only to students who are contem-
plating careers or at least majors in science and engineering
fields. Broader assessments of the educational attainments
of all high school students suggest that the science and
mathematics competence of those who do not intend to
pursue serious study in these fields has declined consider-
ably since the early 1960s. These assessments are discussed
in Section V-B.
In addition, indicators of the qualifications of students
who enter college intending to pursue science or engineer-
ing majors or of those who enter graduate school in those
fields provide no information about the adequacy of the
education they receive in those institutions. A full assess-
ment of the adequacy of professional science and engi-
neering education would of necessity require reference to
present and future expectations of prospective employers.
However, even in the absence of such information, there
are indications that the U.S. higher education system is
under considerable strain and is not able to provide as high
quality education in science and, more particularly, in en-
gineering as many specialists believe it could.
1. National Academy of Engineering Task Force on Engineering Ed-
ucation. Issues in Engineering Education: A Framework for
Analysis. Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Engineering, 1980, pp.
15-16.
Paper submitted by the American Society for Engineering Education (Ap-
pendix D-2).
This point was also emphasized by several evaluators of a draft of this
review, including Donald Glower (The Ohio State University), Donald
Marlowe (American Society for Engineering Education), and F. Karl
Willenbrock (Southern Methodist University).
2. Current spot shortages in industry in several engineering fields and
in scientific subdisciplines were reported by participants in National Re-
search Council Seminars V-A and B (Appendix E). Their existence was
also noted by several evaluators of an early draft of this review, including
Lewis Branscomb (International Business Machines Co.), William Hub-
bard (The Upjohn Co.), and J.E. Stevenot (Procter and Gamble Co.).
3. National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, Press Release, Oc-
tober 19, 1978, Reston, VA.; B.G. Aldridge, "Announcement of Results
of the National Science Teachers Association Survey (1980)." Washing-
ton, D.C.: NSTA.
4. NSF Division of Science Resources Study (unpublished report).
Employment and Training Report of the President, 1979.
5. Engineers Joint Council, Engineering Manpower Commission.
Placement of Engineering and Technology Graduates, 1979. New York,
October 1979.
6. A June 17, 1980 news release from the College Placement Council
(Bethlehem, PA) notes that the number of job offers to new engineering
baccalaureates has increased by 21 percent since June 1979.
7. National Research Council Seminar IV-B (Appendix E).
8. op. cit., Note 2.
9. Based on data in recent annual issues of Summary Report. Doctoral
Recipients from U.S. Universities, published by the National Research
Council.
10. College Placement Council. Salary Survey-Final Report. Issued
annually from Bethlehem. PA.
11. College Placement Council. Bethlehem, PA. Unpublished survey.
12. op. cit.. Note 1.
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13. Comment on early draft of this review by James G. Ling. De-
partment of Energy.
14. Office of Higher Education, U.S. Department of Agriculture,
"Report of Manpower Assessment Project," 1980 (unpublished).
15. The existence of shortages of chemical engineers was cited by
Lewis Brunscomb (International Business Machines Co.) and J. E. Stev-
enot (Proctor and Gamble Co.) in critiques of an early draft of this review.
16. National Science Foundation. Projections of Science and Engi-
neering Doctorate Supply and Utilization: 1982 and 1987. NSF Report
# 79-303.
17. National Science Board. Science Indicators, 1978. Washington,
D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1979, p. 119 (Table 5-2):
18. Douglas Braddock. '-,Me Oversupply of Ph.D.'s to Continue
Through 1985. " Monthly Labor Review, October 1978, pp. 48-50.
19. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, Ph.D.'s
in computer science grew from 107 in 1970 to 196 in 1978. Such $ttwllI
in new graduates is not expected to he sufficient to meet the anticipat"I
rapid expansion in industrial and academic demand for doctorates ut this
field. See also Jerome A. Feldman and William R. Sutherland. "901
venating Experimental Computer Science." Communications ofthe.0
v. 22, #9. Sept. 1979, pp. 497-502.
20. op. cit.. Note 1.
21. Several persons expressed this belief in assessments of an fail1
draft of this review. They include Kenneth Baker (Harvey Mudd Colk')tel,
Lewis Branscomb (International Business Machines Co.). Donald GbOttt't
(The Ohio State University), John Whinnery (University of Calif tttta.
Berkeley). and F. Karl Willenbrock (Southern Methodist University).
22. op. cit.. Note. 17, pp. 125-129.
23. National Merit Scholarship Corporation, Annual Report (lssttthl
yearly).