YOU SHOW A PARALLEL IN THE ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWDOWN OF THE USSR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00274R000300150016-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 17, 2007
• Sequence Number: 16
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/05/17: CIA-RDP84B00274R000300150016-7
You show a parallel in the economic growth slowdown
of the USSR and the OECD countries during the 1970's. Was
this a coincidence or were there similar factors at play?
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I want to underline a point you make in your statement: Is
the Soviet economy in or about to enter a state of crisis? Or,
is it so weak and vulnerable that it could become unstable or
collapse in the near future?
 Approved For Release 2007/05/17: CIA-RDP84B00274R000300150016-7
Much has been said about the fact that Soviet defense
spending takes up 12-14 percent of their GNP, an enormous burden
compared to our own. But that approach to estimating the defense
burden assumes there are opportunity costs to defense allocations
and that defense activities can be compared with the costs of
equivalent activities in other sectors. How significant is that
way of estimating the defense burden in a system that does not
employ market prices?
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Doesn't the fact that military conscription is used as a
kind of national education and training program, especially for
young men from rural areas, and that troops and equipment are
used in construction, harvests, and elsewhere in the civilian
economy add to the difficulty of understanding the defense
burden?
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What evidence is there of how the Soviet leadership and
the central planners view the military burden, whether they
believe it is growing, how they measure it, and the effects it
is having on the civilian economy?
Approved For Release 2007/05/17: CIA-RDP84B00274R000300150016-7
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The point you make that the Soviets are basically
self-sufficient with respect to food is worth emphasizing
because we hear the statement made so often that the Soviets
can't feed their own people. Discuss briefly their food
self-sufficiency in light of the fact that they import so much
grain.
Approved For Release 2007/05/17: CIA-RDP84B00274R000300150016-7
 Approved For Release 2007/05/17: CIA-RDP84B00274R000300150016-7
I understand that Soviet foreign grain purchases have
lagged behind our expectations. What is your estimate of their
import requirements, how much have they purchased so far and
from whom, and how do you explain the fact that so far they
have bought so little from us and from others?
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You summarized the growth of Soviet strategic and
conventional forces overturning the former U.S. numerical superiority
in intercontinental nuclear delivery weapons and reducing the
credibility of NATO's forces. Do you conclude that the Soviets
now have superiority over the United States in strategic forces
and over NATO in conventional forces?
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What is the likelihood that the Soviets will be able to
maintain modest growth in oil production and oil exports to
the West through 1985?
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Will you also s-s the results of the recent
to the Soviets, the effects of the U.S. decision to lift the
Siberian gas pipeline equipment restrictions, and.whether the
Soviet leadership views this episode and the controversy that
still exists in the West as a victory for them?
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How do you assess the possibility that the Soviets
might be capable of increasing their exports of non-fuel
minerals, such as manganese, nickel, and chrome, with which
they are richly endowed, in order to increase their hard
currency earnings so as to be able to purchase more
Western equipment or control their trade balance?
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A study by the Commerce Department for the Joint
Economic Committee earlier this year projects a large Soviet
trade deficit with the West by 1985. Is it your assessment
that a large deficit is likely, or might they-=take actions as
they did this year to avoid it?
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Do you believe Andropov might favor Hungarian-type
decentralization of the farm sector and will you discuss how
such a reform might work and how long it would take to be
implemented?
Will you provide for the record a discussion of
Andropov's involvement in Hungary, his role with respect to
.the economic reforms there, and English translations of any
statements he may have made about the Hungarian reforms and
about the subject of economic reform in the USSR?
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The Soviets are experiencing a slowdown in economic growth as
is virtually all of the industrialized West and Japan. Yet, the
Soviet economy is often described as in a state of crisis while we
view ourselves as temporarily in the down side of the business
cycle. What do you believe is the fundamental difference between
the Soviet economic slowdown and what is happening in the West, and
are the slowdowns in our two camps related in any way?
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Now that Brezhnev has been replaced, 3 :. wc_ it cau-c,an
what changes in domestic and foreign economic policies or
economic prioritie Andropov likely to initiate based on state-
VAn
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You correctly describe the slow growth of the labor force
as a weakness. But isn't the other side of the coin that slow
population growth means fewer mouths to feed and reduced
demands for energy, consumer durables, and the like?