TALKING POINTS EL SALVADOR/NICARAGUA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001604060010-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 9, 2007
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: October 28, 1982
• Content Type: FORM

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' 03 November 1982
DCI TALRING POINTS
Central America IIpdate~?
I. E1 Salvador
-- The recent insurgent offensive?appears to have ended,
although acts of sabotage are likely to continue.
-- The government still has not launched a full scale
counter attack to retake lost territory because of
fears of another large assault.
-- These fears appear unfounded, however, and there is~
no confirmation of reports that large numbers of
Nicaraguans have been air dropped into the country.
-- Although the offensive has not captured any significant
targets, it has demonstrated the guerrillas remain a
potent force. ?
-- The insurgents likely will remain capable of such
initiatives as long as the arms flow from Cuba via
Nicaragua continues.
-- Meanwhile, the guerrillas have scored a propoganda
victory by again calling for a negotiated solution.
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-- The insurgent offensive has caused.new~strains in the
fragile "National Unity" government.
-- D'Aubuisson has used the occasion to attack Defense
Minister Garcia's conduct of the war and to reject
any dialogue with the left.
-- Thus President Magana's efforts to form a peace
commission .will likely be .delayed.
-- Garcia and Magana have counterattacked by attempting to
form a broad political alliance to isolate D'Aubuisson:
.and his hardline supporters.
-- IInless this effort succeeds, Magana and Garcia will
have difficulty making progress on the various
issues, such as continuing economic reforms and
progress on the murder cases, necessary for US
Congressional aid certification.
II. Nicara ua
--- Despite their recent diplomatic victory at the UN, the
Sandinistas are sensitive to increasing West European
criticism of their lack of pluralism.
-- They have offered some concessions to the opposition,'
but the new proposals will not weaken Sandinista
political control.
-- Meanwhile, Managua has stepped up its propoganda
campaign that it is a victim of US-Honduran collusion to
overthrow the regime..
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-- Nicaragua has attempted to counter the recent San
Jose meeting of regional Foreign Ministers by
emphasizing Honduran unwillingness to talk
bilaterally and by accepting the Mexican-Venezuelan;,.
peace initiative.
-- The Sandinistas have also attacked the joint
IIS-Honduran military exercises scheduled for December
as a threat to Nicaragua.
-- Attacks by anti-Sandinista forces operating from
Honduras have increased in the past few months.
-- Nevertheless, efforts to unite these forces with
those based in Costa Rica have had little success.
-- They continue to be hindered by the presence in the
Honduran groups of former members of Somoza's ,;
National Guard.
-- The Nicaraguan military buildup continues.
-- Libya recently delivered three helicopters, and the
Soviets reportedly will deliver more helicopters
soon.
-- Jet fighter pilot training abroad continues, but
deliveries of MIGs does not appear imminent.
-- Nicaragua has experienced increasing economic
difficulties because of an acute. shortage of foreign
exchange.
-- The government has indicated that it may refuse t
honor part of its foreign debt if-its creditor banks
to not extend a sizable new loan.
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III. Honduras
As a result of President Suazo's close cooperation with
the US, Honduras is now being targeted directly by
regional and domestic Communist forces.
-- The recent hostage seizure~in San Pedro Sula and the
previous bombing of electricial power facilities i.n
Tegucigalpa are two examples of escalating violence.
-- Nicaragua also has increased its forces on~the
Honduran border, including the recent movement ~af
armored forces there.
In the face of these growing threats, Honduras 3~elieve
it must have substantial IIS military and .economic aid ~n
favorable terms.
Meanwhile, the civilian government of President Ss~azo
and the armed forces under General Aivacez contnve to
cooperate closely.
-- The political scene remains calm, with virtually all
forces except the far left seeking to make tie
transition to civilian rule a success.
-- The economic picture is much less favorable, with
little likelihood of any improvement from Last year"s
dismal 0.3 percent economic growth.
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