(SANITIZED) INCREASED TENSION AND SOME MILITARY REINFORCEMENT ALONG IRAN-AFGHANISTAN BORDER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001303190031-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2007
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: December 29, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/11/15: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01303190031-6
Approved For Release 2007/11/15: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01303190031-6
 Approved For Release 2007/11/15: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01303190031-6
D/NESA 81-128
29 December 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
Helene L. Boatner
Director, Near East/South Asia Analysis
National Foreign Assessment Center
Increased Tension
and Some Military Reinforcement Along Iran-Afghanistan
1. We have no evidence that Soviet forces in Afghanistan or along the
USSR-Iran border are preparing to intervene in Iran. Moreover, we cannot
identify any political or military development in Iran hi h has D ced an rod~
apparent indication of heightened Soviet concern.
2. The deployment and strength of Soviet and Afghan forces near the
Iran-Afghan border have not changed significantly in two years. The Soviets
have one reduced strength motorized rifle division,
with about 200 tanks and 9,500 troops deployed near 'the Iran-Afghan border to
conduct counter-guerrilla operations. An understrength Afghan infantry
division with as many as 3,000 troops is stationed at Herat and launches
aperiodic sweeps against guerrilla forces. The status of Soviet military
forces in the USSR's Transcaucasus and Turkistan Military Districts has not
changed during the past several months, except for the movement of those few
forces recently dispatched to Afghanistan.
3. We are unaware of any recent incidents which would cause Tehran to
reinforce its border with Afghanistan.
Iran has no sizable regular military forces near its northeastern
border with Afghanistan or the Soviet Union.
4. The political situation in Iran has been relativey quiet for over two
months. Acts of terrorism have declined dramatically from almost daily
occurrences this summer to sporadic and isolated incidents. The internal
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Approved For Release 2007/11/15: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01303190031-6
 Approved For Release 2007/11/15: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01303190031-6
SUBJECT:( Increased Tension and
Some Military Reinforcement Along Iran-Afghanistan Border
opposition has been crippled by harsh government repression. The regime does
not appear concerned about exiles, despite recent indications that those led
by Bani-Sadr may be planning to call for a general strike in Iran. Although
increased factionalization is evident within Iran's ruling clerical party--and
between that party and the majority of clergy who remain outside its
framework--Ayatollah Khomeini has prevented serious breaks in clerical
5. Recent Soviet policy toward Iran has continued to emphasize
cultivation of the Khomeini regime, reflecting an apparent assessment by
Moscow that the clerical regime remains the dominant factor in Iranian
political life. Soviet concern about the longevity of the regime--apparent
during the assassination wave this past summer--seems to have eased. Moscow's
relations with Tehran, however, remain strained.
He e L. Boatner
Approved For Release 2007/11/15: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01303190031-6
 Approved For Release 2007/11/15: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01303190031-6
Increased Tension and
Some Military Reinforcement Along ran-Afghanistan Border
Distribution:
Copy #1 - DDCI
Copy #2 - Executive Registry
Copy #3 - D/NFAC
Copy #4 - DD/NFAC
Copy #5 - NFAC Registry
Copy #6 - D/NESA
Copy #7 - C/PG
Copy #8 - PG/Chrono
NFAC/NESA/PG/ (29Dec81).
Approved For Release 2007/11/15: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01303190031-6