'DENSE PACK' BASING IDEA MAY BE LAST CHANCE FOR THE MX

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000802060043-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 15, 2007
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: October 10, 1982
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Approved For Release 2007/03/16: CIA-RDP84B00049R000802060043-4
CHICAGO SUN-TIMES
By Bruce Ingersoll
10 October 1982 (13)
'Dense pack' basing idea may be last chance for the MX
ASHINGTON-Periodically for
the last six years, the MX
missile has been a waif of the
nuclear age, a weapon without a home. To
.the Air Force's frustration, one MX-basing
scheme after another has been discarded
for technical and political reasons.
Pentagon technocrats have considered
stowing the nuclear-tipped MX in trench-
es, submerging it in pools of tinted water,
..putting it aboard trains, planes, barges,
;4hlps r d submersibles, even shuttling it
4"racetrack" from one under-
ground garage to another, all to keep the
Soviets guessing where it's hidden..
Early this year, scheme No. 32 came to
the fore. The Air Force calls it "closely
spaced basing," or "dense pack." Critics
already are deriding it as "dunce pack."
100 missile, Spaced together
MX 'dense. - pack' M hardened oep.ule.
Pg.. 1
yet advanced. Whether it flies ;r' cras
Ivor depends on the outcome of
scientific debate now Taging and the reac- UNDER "fratricide" the-
tion on Capitol Hill. ory, the blast from the first Sovi-
Under the $28-billion dense pack plan, et warheads drawn into the narrow MX
1.00 MXs would be Hacked into a corridor corridor would disable the warheads that fo!-
bout one mile wide and 12 miles long. lowed, giving the u.s. time to retaliate with survmng MAs, protectea in ..-naraereci -
withstand nuclear shocks and shivers. horse." _
Were the Soviets to attack, they would For Reagan the MX decision could v
narrow corridor...... ency. It will shape the nations nuclear-
The first Soviet warheads to detonate deterrent strategy well into the 21st cen-
would create so much havoc that they tury and bear directly on the outcome of
would destroy the following warheads or the strategic arms reductions talks.
deflect them off-target, or so the theory of ORE THAN national security is
"fratricide" goes. 'The horrendous explo- at stake, however. Reagan has
lions--each bigger than the Hiroshima 1 invested a lot of political cap-
atomic blast of 194&-would . throw a ital in his le a to close the U.S- "window
shield of gamma radiation, neutrons, heat, of vulnerability" to a Soviet nuclear at-
shock waves, dust and debris over the rest, tac , and now he must make good on it.
of the MX corridor. The MX will be a 96-ton albatross around
The Air Force stoutly believes a haven his neck, a political liability, until he finds
can be found in havoc. It would be only it a satisfactory home.
temporary-one hour or so-but it would Also riding on his decision are billions in
give the United States time to retaliate _ defense contracts. Martin Marietta, the
with the surviving MXs. prime contractor on the MX, stands to
Disbelievers, however, are troubled by gain the most. About $4.5 billion already
all the uncertainties inherent in ratrici e. has been spent on the missile's design and
They wonder where nuclear physics ends development and on basing studies.
and nuclear theology begins. They can There is a growing consensus in Wash-
envision the Soviets developing tactics and ington that the MX will be doomed to
technology to defeat dense Rack. oblivion if an acceptable basing system is
Congress has given President Reagan not found soon. Defense Secretary Caspar
until Dec. I to decide what to do with the W. Weinberger as described dense pack
homeless MX. It rejected his interim pro- as our alt time at at.'
posal to put it temporarily in existing a it orce already is sending desig-
missile silos until a survivable basing sys- nated hitters to the plate to face the best
m can be found. pitching of dense pack's detractors. The
At this juncture, dense pack appears to opposing lineup is formidable.
be the president's only option. "It's a Former President Jimmy Carter, whose
strong se in the race," said a Pentagon "shell game" plan for hiding 200 MXe in
source. "In fact, I think it's the only 4,600 shelters in Nevada and Utah was
rejected by Reagan, has dismissed the
latest scheme as "ridiculous."
William Perry, former undersecretary nf
dp7e-nse for researeb and eincizieerine un er
Carter, said it would be a "stopgap r en-
sure" at best. "No deplorznent o. mimes
at fixed, known locations is survi v;ib:e "
Per asserted recent ?.
Retired A dm. Stansfield Turner Cart-
er's Central Intelligence Agency dirt-.tor,
likened the proposed corridor of MX i+ile
to France's Mai inot Line of defensive
1lwarks,-The .Soviets- would be able to
find a way around the fratricide problem
just as the German Panzer divisions swept
around the Maginot Line, he argued. .
Sen. Gary Hart (D-Colo.), an influentia!
member of the Armed Services Con w;-,
tee, contended that dense psrl: grab ii:1-'
would be unworkable and tb'is wot-1d 7' :-
tabilize the balance of nuclear tarrar.
Even' retired Air Force L I.. Geri. Ls~mt
Scowcroft a Reagan i;upporter, has si -iila?
misgivings. "I don't know whether Celiac
pack will work or not," he said. "It may be
subject to catastrophic failure."
T LEAST THREE grave t..".rsu .s
already have Been envisioned by
strategic planners and nuclear
physicists:
? The Soviets might be able to "pin down"
the MX force for the first few hours of a
DENSE PACK...Pg. 8-F
 Approved FP(RRPf lase 20~70A1E~~Ig~P84B4(0~~201~3-4
DENSE PACK... Continued
nuclear war by detonating a series of small
nuclear explosions 60 to 120 miles above
0 missile silos. Submarine-launched mis-
s could be used for this purpose.
? The Soviets could use -their enormous
SS-18 missiles to hurl five-megaton or
bigger warheads at the MX corridor. A
surface burst "at one silo would put the
adjacent silos at the lip of the crater," said
physicist Richard L. Garwin.
"In no way does dense pack provide
enduring survivability," he said. "Clearly,
the Soviets could attack 20 percent of the
silos in one wave, following after 30 min-
utes or so with another wave, and thus
destroy the entire cluster in about three
hours."
r They also could develop earth-penetrat-
ng warheads and sow the ground of the
MX corridor with them. To avoid fratri-
cide, they could time these warheads to go
F off simultaneously.
By putting the MX on land we're
creating extremely high-value targets
which are essentially undefendable," said
another physicist, Sidney Drell. "It would
J .L _
sensible
based deterrent. Our submarine missile
force is highly survivable and we can give
it every characteristic that we can design
into a lard-based system-reliable com-
mand and control and high accuracy."
There is also the problem of radioactive
-out from all the ground bursts.
'W 'I do not see that providing the. Soviets
with a big fat target which will create an
e Subroc ASW system.
NATE APPROPRIATIONS WANTS ASW STANDOFF AND SUBROC
The Senate
submarine warfare st
ropriations Committee is supporting the Navy's prices
off weapon (ASWSW) but also wants prolongee of-and perhaps a
life extension program for
The Navy combined ASW
AEROSPACE DAILY 8 October 1982 (13) Pg. 209
ing with a Common ASW Stando
submarines.
Last spring, however, the Navy deci
noted in reporting on its FY 1983 defense
icate
new budget profiles for ASWSW ind
immediate changes are made in the
Voting a $38 million ASWS
inally for the common weap
firm outyear funding for
It also noted
roc life a
a Sub
subm
submarines
cruise
astronomical amount of fall-out, which will
kill millions and millions of Americans, is
a very sound way of providing defense,"
said Adm. Thomas Moorer, former chair-
man of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Retired Adm. Gene R. LaRocque finds
it troubling that the fratricide concept is
purely theoretical, totally untried.
'"'There's never been two nuclear test shots
et,.the ` same tune, `atmospheric or' i4tlder='
ground," he said. "I'd liko to see the
theory tested before we spend $25 billion
on dense pack.".
The Air Force's. comeback : is that the
uncertainties are jus~, as challenging for
the Soviets as they are for U.S. scientists.
Its strategic planners believe that the
problem of timing warheads to hit their
targets within microseconds will stymie
them for years.
By. building the silos 1,800 to 2,200 feet
apart and hardening them to withstand
blast pressures up to 10,000 pounds per
square inch-5 pounds will flatten a frame
house-they maintain that 50 to 70 MXe
in 100 would be able to ride out any
conceivable Soviet attack.
The Air Force plan is to deploy the first
10 missiles by the end of 1986 and the rest
by mid-1989, most likely on a military
base in the Southwest.
The dense pack, at $28 billion for 100
missiles and $34 billion for DA, would be
cheaper than Carter's $41-billion shell
oAmP with 200 MXs. It also is far more
and the Vertical Launch AS
take up no more than 15 square miles,
eapon concept for
whereas the shell game would have ewsi-
lowed 1,000 times more land.
E FEEL THE basic system
at least through _1t e ei.r y
to mid-1990a," said a Defense Department
source. "This gives us ample time watch
(We -enemy's] test programs, and if we see
that he's developing methods to defeat it,
there are things we can do to further
complicate the problem for him."
Silo hardness could be enhanced, he
said. As many as five silos could be added
for each MX, enabling the Air Force to
baffle the enemy by moving the missiles
around. In"addition to "deceptive basing,"
a ballistic missile defense system could he
deployed to intercept and kill incoming
Soviet warheads.
More MXs, if necessary, could be
stashed deep inside mesas or mountains as
a "secure reserve of weapons," he said.
With mining augurs or moles, these r:,is-
siles would tunnel their way to the sur-'ace
for launching.
The four-stage MX is tentatively het. to
make its first flight Jan. 28 at Vandenberg
Air Force Base, Calif. Even if it soars
skyward perfectly, it may not fly in Con-
gress.
"If critics can find a Wee of attack that
would defeat ense pack, the S' iets
could. too, rendering worse than
worthless: a lucrative, vulnerable target
that woo be an incentive for a Soviet
first strike," said a congressional researcher.
Bruce Ingersoll is a member of the.,Sdn-
C system last year, emerg-
from surface ships as well as
this--'Would be "unaffordable,". the committee
in the
- `s4
major
ee add
- gram," the comm'
of
udget for FY '83, instea
committee told the Navy to
the fe
SW delays in asking again that the Navy report old
m
nsion improvement program. It voted to add $11 million t
able of using Subroc even after they have been equipped with
sles, and it said it is "concerned that the Navy has failed to accelerate
pmental replacement for Subroc."
bill, so it resurrected both programs. But
development schedule unless
ed without elaboration.
$42 million requested orig-
,eport by December 15 on
asibility of
ake attack
mahawk
Approved For Release 2007/03/16: CIA-RDP84B00049R000802060043-4