DDCI TALKING POINTS: UPDATE ON CENTRAL AMERICA SUMMARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000701870005-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: September 23, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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23 September 1982
DDCI Talking Points: Update on Central America
Summary
Central America continues to present opportunities for the
extreme left, although the insurgencies in El Salvador and
Guatemala are currently stalemated with government forces. In El
Salvador, the Magana administration is being undermined by
maneuvering between ultraconservatives and moderates within both
the military and the government,
Nevertheless, increasing regional concern over Nicaraguan
and Cuban efforts to foment and capitalize on instability is
resulting in the growing isolation of these nations. Costa Rica
is spearheading an effort to convene a security meeting of the
area's democracies; the apparent complicity by Salvadoran
guerrillas in the current hostage crisis in Honduras may
strengthen Tegucigalpa's resolve to continue its anti-communist
policies; and Panama, under President de la Espriella, is taking
an increasingly pro-US stance.
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II. Guatemala
(recent counterinsurgency
successes and the increased possibility of foreign
military and economic assistance have bolstered armed
forces' support of Rios Montt.
-- Guatemala's human rights image has been damaged by the
widely publicized execution of four guerrillas.
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-- Insurgent reprisals have begun, and terrorist attacks
in the capital threaten continued improvement in
security there.
-- The Council of State--an advisory body representing
most sectors of society--has been inaugurated,
however, and will function as a national commission
on human rights.
Meanwhile, new foreign financing to ease the foreign
exchange crisis has been announced, but this may delay a
decision to approach the IMF.
III. Costa Rica
-- President Monge's distrust of the Sandinistas has been
reflected in his pushing for a regional security
meeting, now scheduled for 4 October in San Jose.
-- Monge also recently granted asylum to Sandinista
exile hero Eden Pastora and is improving Costa Rica's
security forces with aid and training from Panama.
-- Monge is particularly angry at recent proof of
Nicaraguan complicity in a terrorist incident in San
Jose.
-- Extreme leftists have had little success in their
attempts to exploit Costa Rica's economic
vulnerabilities, but planning apparently continues.
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IV. Honduras
-- The recent taking of hostages by local and possibly
regional extreme leftists is probably a tactic to force
the Suazo government to reevaluate its increasingly
tough anti-communist policies.
-- Regardless of the outcome of the crisis, debate over
supporting US initiatives in Central America will
intensify and polarization in Honduras increase.
-- Nevertheless, Suazo and Commander-in-Chief Alvarez
probably will maintain their hard line and likely
will request additional US military and economic
assistance.
V. Panama
-- President de la Espriella is particularly concerned over
regional security and will voice this concern in his 1
October meeting with President Reagan.
-- Recent reporting indicates possible Nicaraguan
destabilization efforts aimed at derailing Panama's
pro-US policies.
-- Panamanian extreme leftists are meanwhile planning to
stage demonstrations to protest the government's
perceived security and foreign policy shifts.
VI. Nicaragua
-- Managua's recent diplomatic initiatives within the area
and Western Europe underscore the Sandinistas'
sensitivity to increasing scrutiny of their policies.
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-- They are also hinting at political relaxation at
home, and have agreed to a dialogue with the
opposition parties.
-- Their recent confrontation with the Church was a
political setback that had damaging international
repercussions.
-- Attacks against the Sandinistas by counterrevolutionary
forces along the Nicaraguan borders have declined
sharply since late July.
-- Although anti-Sandinista groups are continuing their
attempts to unify, they reman divided over
participation by former members of Somoza's National
Guard.
-- Despite the apparent willingness of the Sandinistas to
moderate their domestic activities when it is tactically
advantageous, they continue working with Cuba to augment
their already formidable military establishment.
-- Cuba could furnish the Sandista Air Force with at
least 12 older MIG-17s or MIG-21s from its inventory;
there are also enough later model MIG-21s in Cuba to
send some to Nicaragua without weakening Cuban air
defenses.
-- The aircraft could be delivered to Nicaragua in
crates or flown in from Cuba; however, the
possiblity of a direct shipment of MIGs from the
USSR cannot be discounted.
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-- In either case, the presence of MIGs in Nicaragua
probably would be detected as soon as they began
operations.
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