CARIBBEAN BASIN OVERVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2007
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: February 9, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

SECRET o ~.~ -.. - , ofl,
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
1. Caribbean Basin Overview
- 2.4 countries and 11 soon to be independent entities with a total
population of 163 million in the Caribbean Sea and rimland from Suriname
to the US border; of these 93 million live in the region from Panama to the
US border.
- Two dimensions of strategic interest and threat
A/ Continuation of subversive momentum increasingly supported by Cuba since 1978.
-- Could produce several more hostile Marxist-Leninist regimes in
Central America by 1983-84
-- Which in turn, according to the September 1981 NIE, would
"bring the revolution to Mexico's border, thereby raising the
risks of internal destabilization."
B/ In addition, a more hostile Caribbean is dangerous 'because:
-- 45% of all trade and crude oil pass through the'Caribbean
-- 50% of US petroleum is now processed in Caribbean refineries
-- 50% of NATO supplies for wartime would pass through Caribbean
-- Sea lines of communication--have become more vulnerable
(1970 - 200 Soviet shipdays; 1980 - 2,600 Soviet shipdays)
-- A communist Central America with 20 million people could have
military forces of about 500,000--if the Nicaraguan or Cuban
proportion held.
II. Cuban Threat and Actions--Three Types
A/ Military power and buildup
-- 250,000-person army plus ready reserves of 100,000-130,000
-- More than 200 MIGs; 650 tanks; 90 helicopters; other modern weapons
-- 1981 saw massive Soviet-supplied modernization--including 100 major
new weapons--MIG-23, SA-6; 66,000 metric tons
B/ 38,000 Cuban troops supporting pro-Soviet regimes including Ethiopia,
Angola, Mozambique, South Yemen...plus 30,000 Cuban civilians.
C/ Cuban support for subversion--continuous and growing
-- Nicaragua now a full partner vs El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
Costa Rica
NOTE: After the four-page briefing, attached are three charts--
Central American economies and guerrilla strengths 1960-1981;
Map showing range of unemployment in the entire Caribbean region.
Chart showing country and region population.
SECRETI 25X1
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
J L\i l\L 1 A
-- 6,000 Cubans in Nicaragua, about 1,800 military/security
-- Clear pattern in Central America--unification, training, weapons,
communications, propaganda, funds
-- Full Soviet Bloc support
-- Grenada--a propaganda partner--75KW radio-free Grenada will have
strongest in Eastern Caribbean other than Cuba's planned 100 KW radio
-- Cuba politically active in Mexico*
III. Brief Country 1eviews--Two Different Caribbean Contexts
A/ Serious subversion which makes the economic problems even worse--
most of Central America and Colombia
B/ Economic problems with noticeable subversive danger in some countries--
rest of Caribbean region
A/ Serious Subversion and Economic Problems ( 8 countries with 50M population)
El Salvador
- As the 28 March elections approach, we expect stepped-up attacks on power
lines and bridges; more raids on military installations and small towns;
and continued assassinations of public figures.
- The 24,000-man government security forces took 2,200 casualties last year;
they are spread thin.
- Successful elections should provide a political boost, but time now favors
the guerrillas because of the continuing outside support and economic
destruction.
SECRET)
25X1
J 25X1
- - -- Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8 25X1
Guatemala
- Guerrilla activity has increased sharply.
- The insurgency there is entering a new, more active phase.
Guerrilla forces doubled to 4,500 during the past year.
Cuba and Nicaragua appear to be increasing their support.
- If Salvador falls, there is little chance Guatemala can survive; otherwise,
there is some chance depending on events in the region and the internal
policies of the Guatemalan government.
Honduras
- The restoration of constitutional government in January 1982 is a positive step.
- But the Cubans and Nicaraguans are working to unify extreme left groups
for an insurgency--probably in the next 12-18 months.
- Some terrorist actions began in 1981 and will likely increase.
Terrorist/guerrilla unity meeting schedulef for mid-.February '82 in Havana.
Costa Rica
- Successful democratic election of 7 February.
- New Social Democratic president is anti-communist, will take office May 1982.
- However Cuba/Nicaragua are financing a radical left political front and
a paramilitary force which is intended to neutralize and destabilize Costa Rica.
B/ Countries with Mainly Economic Problems ( 16 countries with 113M population)
- Their economies are being undercut by global economic conditions such as high
oil prices, declining commodity prices (sugar, coffee, bauxite), stagnating
foreign investment, soaring unemployment, and declining tourism.
- Middle-class emigration is siphoning off technical skills as well as some
moderate political leadership (particularly in Surname and Guyana).
radical
- Economic conditions have made the youth increasingly susceptible to/leftist
influence (median age in region is 16).
- Most governments lack adequate security force or intelligence structures and
are extremely vulnerable to the growing threat posed by radical, Cuban and
Libyan-backed movements.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
IV. Significant-new level of other international involvement in crisis areas
For El Salvador government and regional moderates
-- Christian democratic parties of Europe and Latin America
- national and international condemnations of the extreme left
- frequent endorsements of Duarte government - Dec 81 most recent
-- International non-communist trade unions and their federations
-- All the Latin American democracies including Venezuela and Colombia
-- September 1981, 15 nations condemned the Mexican-French initiative
-- December 1981, 22.23 vote in St. Lucia (OAS endorses Salvador election;
Nicaragua, Mexico, Grenada opposed)
-- 19 January 1982, formation of Central American Democratic Community
involving El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica.
For the extreme left
-- Libya in Nicaragua including $100M in aid and advisors; seeking to
become active in several Caribbean states (Trinidad, Dominica, Bahamas,
St. Lucia)
-- Several Palestinian terrorist groups
- about 500 guerrillas have been trained in Palestinian camps
- PLO--since 1979. . . recent increase. . . public admission by
Arafat that Palestinians are helping the guerrillas in El Salvador
and that Palestinian pilots are in Nicaragua
4
- DFLP is Soviet-controlled and has been involved
- Evidence of Soviet encouragement since 1979 for their involvement.
Many but not all Social Democratic parties in Europe and Latin America.
- Growing concern about the Marxist-Leninist regime in Nicaragua
by formerly gi)llible Social Democrats.
4
SECRET_________
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
Nicaragua
No. of Guerrillas
Real GNP (%)
El Salvador No. of Guerrillas
Real GNP (%)
Guatemala
Honduras
No. of Guerrillas
Real GNP (%)
No. of Guerrillas
Real GNP (%)
Costa Rica No. of Guerrillas
Real GNP (%)
'60-'70 '71-'77
2,000
4,500
-25.8! +10
2,00013,500
1,000
4,500
2,000 4,500
+3.5 - 2
+3.3 +1.6 -5.0
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
Central America: Guerrilla Strengths, Economic Growth Rates, 1960-81
78 79 80
-25.8
6,000 ai b, +12
i
5,000 i +8
4,000 , +4
ci d fi +12
1
3,000 0
2,000 -4
1,000 ITT -8
Guatemala No. of Guerrillas
6,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
ei +12
1,000 1 I -8
1960-70 71-77 78 79 80 81 -12
1,0001 I 1 -8
1960-70 71-77 78 79 80 81 -12
a. 3/79-Havana
meeting re Nicaragua
b. 7/79-FSLN
victory in Nicaragua
c. 1 2/79-Havana
meeting on
El Salvador,
Guatemala
d. 3/80-Land reform in
El Salvador
f. 1 /81 -Failure of
offensive in
El Salvador
e. 5/80-Formation of
FDCR/Guatemala
Guerrillas
GNP
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Central America anu ppr`vedFor Release 2007/07/11 :
United States l
The Baharrtas
Cuba
Mexico
Belize
Cayman Is.
(U.K.)
Less than 10
1Gto30
30 and above
Note: Data reflect most recent figures. In
some cases data are not available.
I
r7 Trinidad
and
Tobago
Turks and Caicos
(U K.)
Colombia
Confidential
Bc..~afu. rsprswntatwn is
t not nec. wrdr autAmtatne.
631t7a 2-a2
11sa'r'y,?1"w."er"'~9t1-~..:.+t.'~ - ..~cr~n' _
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
Bermuda
(U . K. )
British Virgin I.
_ ,U K.1 10 Anguilla (U.K.)
Puerto i2fto -Virgin !s.'
(U.S.)
.? Antigua and Barbuda
St. Christopher-Ne:is,
(U.K.) Montserrat (U.K.)
j Guadeloupe (Fr.)
Wominica
Martinique-;
(Fr.) a St. Lucia
St. Vincent and
the Grenadines$* Barbados
*a Grenada
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
9 February 1982
CARIBBEAN BASIN: POPULATION AND COUNTRY STATISTICS
Country or Region
Population (millions)
Mexico
Central America (6)
70
21
Guatemala
7.2
El Salvador
5.0
Honduras
3.7
Nicaragua
2.5
Costa Rica
2.3
Belize
.1
Colombia 27
Caribbean (14 independent countries
and 11 dependent entities)
Cuba
9.9
Haiti
5.8
Dominican Republic
5.7
Jamaica
2.2
Trinidad & Tobago
1.1
Guyana
.8
Suriname
.35
Barbados
.28
Bahamas
.24
St. Lucia
.12
St. Vincent
.11
Grenada
.10
Dominica
.08
Antigua
.07
Dependent Entities
1.10
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
1. Caribbean Basin Overview *
- 24 countries and 11 soon to be independent entities with a total
population of 163' million in the Caribbean Sea and rimland from Suriname
to the US border; of these 93 million live in the region from Panama to the
US border.
- Two dimensions of strategic interest and threat
A/ Continuation of subversive momentum increasingly supported by Cuba since 1978.
-- Could produce several more hostile Marxist-Leninist regimes in
Central America by 1983-84
-- Which in turn, according to the September 1981 NIE, would
"bring the revolution to Mexico's border, thereby raising the
risks of internal destabilization."
B/ In addition, a more hostile Caribbean is dangerous because:
-- 45% of all trade and crude oil pass through the'Caribbean
-- 50% of US petroleum is now processed in Caribbean refineries
-- 50% of NATO supplies for wartime would pass through Caribbean
-- Sea lines of communication--have become more vulnerable
(1970 - 200 Soviet shipdays; 1980 - 2,600 Soviet shipdays)
-- A communist Central America with 20 million people could have
military forces of about 500,000--if the Nicaraguan or Cuban
proporti&n held.
II. Cuban Threat and Actions--Three Types
A/ Military power and buildup
-- 250,000-person army plus ready reserves of 100,000-130,000
-- More than 200 MIGs; 650 tanks; 90 helicopters; other modern weapons
-- 1981 saw massive Soviet-supplied modernization--including 100 major
new weapons--MIG-23, SA-6; 66,000 metric tons
B/ 38,000 Cuban troops supporting pro-Soviet regimes including Ethiopia,
Angola, Mozambique, South Yemen ...plus 30,000 Cuban civilians.
C/ Cuban support for subversion--continuous and growing
-- Nicaragua now a full partner vs El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
Costa Rica
NOTE: After the four-page briefing, attached are three charts--
Central American economies and guerrilla strengths 1960-1981;
Map showing range of unemployment in the entire Caribbean region.
SECRET
n,x Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049ROO0200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
6,000 Cubans in Nicaragua, about 1,800 military/security
Clear pattern in Central America--unification, training, weapons,
communications, propaganda, funds
Full Soviet Bloc support
Grenada--a propaganda partner--75KW radio-free Grenada will have
strongest in Eastern Caribbean other than Cuba's planned 100 KW radio
Cuba politically active in Mexico*
III. Brief Country Reviews--Two Different Caribbean Contexts
A/ Serious subversion which makes the economic problems even worse--
most of Central America and Colombia
B/ Economic problems with noticeable subversive danger in some countries--
rest of Caribbean region
El Salvador
8 countries with 50M population)
As the 28 March elections approach, we expect stepped-up attacks on power
lines and bridges; more raids on military installations and small towns;
and continued assassinations of public figures.
The 24,000-man government security forces took 2,200 casualties last year;
they are spread thin.
Successful elections should provide a political boost, but time now favors
the guerrillas because of the continuing outside support and economic
destruction.
A/ Serious Subversion and Economic Problems
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
1 I
Guatemala
- Guerrilla activity has increased sharply.
- The insurgency there is entering a new, more active phase.
= Guerrilla forces doubled to 4,500 during the past year.
Cuba and Nicaragua appear to be increasing their support.
- If Salvador falls, there is little chance Guatemala can survive; otherwise,
there is some chance depending on events in the region and the internal
policies of the Guatemalan government.
Honduras
- The restoration of constitutional government in January 1982 is a positive step.
- But the Cubans and Nicaraguans are working to unify extreme left groups
for an insurgency--probably in the next 12-18 months.
- Some terrorist actions began in 1981 and will likely increase.
Terrorist/guerrilla unity me?ting schedulef for mid-.February '82 in Havana.
Costa Rica
- Successful democratic election of 7 February.
- New Social Democratic president is anti-communist, will take office May 1982.
- However Cuba/Nicaragua are financing a radical left political front and
a paramilitajay force which is intended to neutralize and destabilize Costa Rica.
B/ Countries with Mainly Economic Problems ( 16 countries with 113M population)
Their economies are being undercut by global economic conditions such as high
oil prices, declining commodity prices (sugar, coffee, bauxite), stagnating
foreign investment, soaring unemployment, and declining tourism.
Middle-class emigration is siphoning off technical skills as well as some
moderate political leadership (particularly in Surname and Guyana).
radical
Economic conditions have made the youth increasingly susceptible to/leftist
influence (median age in region is 16).
Most governments lack adequate security force or intelligence structures and
are extremely vulnerable to the growing threat posed by radical, Cuban and
Libyan-backed movements.
SECRETI 25X1
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
IV. Si nifican.t new-level of other international involvement in crisis areas
For El Salvador government and regional moderates
-- Christian democratic parties of Europe and Latin America
- national and international condemnations of the extreme left
- frequent endorsements of Duarte government - Dec 81 most recent
-- International non-communist trade unions and their federations
All the Latin American democracies including Venezuela and Colombia
-- September 1981, 15 nations condemned the Mexican-French initiative
-- December 1981, 22-23 vote in St. Lucia (OAS endorses Salvador election;
Nicaragua, Mexico, Grenada opposed)
-- 19 January 1982, formation of Central American Democratic Community
involving El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica.
For the extreme left
-- Libya in Nicaragua including $100M in aid and advisors; seeking to
become active in several Caribbean states (Trinidad, Dominica, Bahamas,
St. Lucia)
-- Several Palestinian terrorist groups
- about 500 guerrillas have been trained in Palestinian camps
- PLO--since 1979. . . recent increase. . . public admission by
Arafat that Palestinians are helping the guerrillas in El Salvador
and that Palestinian pilots are in Nicaragua
4
- DFLP is Soviet-controlled and has been involved
- Evidence of Soviet encouragement since 1979 for their involvement.
Many but not all Social Democratic parties in Europe and Latin America.
- Growing concern about the Marxist-Leninist regime in Nicaragua
by formerly gullible Social Democrats.
SECRET)
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
1
'60-'70 '71-'77
'78
'79
'80
'81 est.
Nicaragua No. of Guerrillas
150 300
2,000
4,500
0
0
Real GNP (%)
+6.4
+6.0
-5.5
-25.8!
+10
0
El Salvador No. of Guerrillas
0
300
850
2,000
3,500
4,500
Real GNP (%)
+5.5
+5.2
+4.4
+3.5
-10
-10
Guatemala No. of Guerrillas
300
250
600
1,000
2,000
4,500
Real GNP (%)
+5.2
+6.2
+5.0
+4.5
+3.5
-2
Honduras No. of Guerrillas
0
0
0
0
0
100
Real GNP (%)
+4.5
+3.8
+7.9
+6.7
+2.5
0
Costa Rica No. of Guerrillas
0
0
0
0
0
0
Secret Real GNP (%)
+5.1
+6.4
+6.3
+3.3
+1.6
-5.0
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
Central America: Guerrilla Strengths, Economic Growth Rates, 1960-81
1,000 I
78 79 80
-25.8
GNP(%)
Ti +12
-8
I I I
1960-70 71-77 78 79 80 81 -12
1,000 1
Costa Rica No. of Guerrillas
6,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 -4
1,000
I I I I 1 -8
1960-70 71-77 78 79 80 81 -12
a. 3/79-Havana
meeting re Nicaragua
b. 7/79-FSLN
victory in Nicaragua
c. 12/79-Havana
meeting on
El Salvador,
Guatemala
d. 3/80-Land reform in
El Salvador
f. l/81-Failure of
offensive in
El Salvador
e. 5/80-Formation of
FDCR/Guatemala
Guerrillas
GNP
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/11 CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
Central A11 erica an
United States (
Confidential
Boundary nprewntat.on u
i nut n Nrly auten:at.n.
1531174 292
Turks and Caicos
(U. K.)
Bermuda
(U.K.)
(U.K.) -Anguilla (U.K.)
Puirt'o7tCco `virgin Is.
-
(U.S.) -(U.S.) ?
St. Christop er-Nen s? Antigua and Barbuda
(U.K.) Montserrat (U.K.)
3',Guadeloupe (Fr.)
Dominica
Martinique
(Fr.) St. Lucia
St. Ylncent an
the Grenadinas6e
Barbados
es Grenada
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8
Less than 10
10to30
30 and above
Note: Data reflect most recent figures. in
some cases data are not available.
 66 i T 't.
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zal..@
THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
`ational Intelligence Officers
9 January 1982
A/DCI/IA
.C/ALA/MCD
DD, ALA
Mr. Duane Clarridge, C/LAD/DDO
In response to the request of the DCI this
morning, I gave him a first draft of this
Caribbean Basin intelligence briefing for possible
use at the NSC meeting tomorrow.
Your comments and suggestions on this draft
would be welcome.
Att: (1)
SECRET)
Constantine C. Menges
NIO/LA
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200380006-8