ONE WEEK INTO THE POLISH CRISIS: THE SOVIET PERSPECTIVE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2008
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: December 20, 1981
• Content Type: CABLE

Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
f9
E, LTEMPO 7682491 -3541624Z FRP1
10 0
140
_fo
SECRET
FRPi
:STATE
$1 7682491 830 RAGE.Q01 NC 7682491
a
25X1
.......... ....TQR;.?015312 M.81 .......................?.?
? -?~??--~--~-???-~??a?- -~?-*wtea.- -era- -----?-era- a-~??w?.~.-aaa?.a . ---.~ .
00 RUEAIIB
ZNY SSSSS ZOC STATE ZZH
UT83902
00
RUEHC
DE
RUEHMO
47250/01.3540948
ZNY
SSS8S
ZZH
0 200909Z DEC 81
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO.RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE-0132
INFO RVDKRK/AMEMBASSY WARSAW.IMMEDI6TE_8707
S RUDKRB/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY-7112
. .. t&."wc.nv 9NE-mI TAI MOTlevTV -t t
dY RUEHML/AMEMBASSY 5ONN_PRIORITY-1880_
RUFHMU/AMCONSUL MUNICH-PRIORITY 5854.' -
RUDKAR/AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST PRIORITY 7528
RUDKAA/AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST PRIQRITY.6641
RUEHLD/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 3598
RUDKPNQ/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN,PRIORIIY 1338
RUFHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0971_
RUDKRP/AMEMBASSY PRAGUE PRIORITY..7332
RUEHRO/AMEIMBASSY ROME PRIORITY-6408.
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY 1398
_.:TERM FOR COMBINED
UDKFMO/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM PRIORITY-1224
RUDKSA/AMEMBASSY SOFIA PRIORITY 6660 -
k RUFHNA/USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 0787
RUFHJA/USMISSION USBERLIN PRIORITY 5584
? SECRET
9
State Dept. review completed
fit
0
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
SECRET
'STATE
0
r
In , ? . , . _ . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . a .. . . . ? s ? . e ? . ? ? . s . .... ? ? ? ? ? s I s ? ? r ? ? . . ? . . ? ? . ? .?.
81 -7682 191 SSO ,. AGE 002 NC r76e2491
...... . ....................:TO$:.~01931Z.OEC.81r,...a Rt...................?
0 _ ?
6T
S E C R E T MOSCOW 17250
EXDIS
MADRID FOR USDEL CSCE
USNATO MOLD FOR EAGLEBURGER
COMBINED SECTION
? E.O., 12065: RDS 12/19/01 (HARTMAN, ARTHUR) OR?M
TAGS:_PEPR, PL, UR _ _
SUBJECT: ONE WEEK INTO THE POLISH CRISIS: THE SOVIET
1. SECRET, ENTIRE TEXT,
SUMMARY:
2. ONE WEEK INTO POLISH MARTIAL LAW,. WE BELIEVE THE_
SOVIETS KNOW THEY ARE IN DEEP-TROUBLE.. REGARDLESS OF
THE OBVIOUS SOVIET COLLUSION_IN THE SEIZURE OF POWER
BY THE POLISH GENERALS, THE DETERIORATION IN POLAND
TO MILITARY RULE IS ALREADY A_COSTLY DISASTER-FOR SOVIET
POLICY AND INTERESTS. THERE ARE CLgAR INDICATIQNS
THAT-THE SOVIETS ARE HOPING FOR A.MIRACLE FROM THE
4 JUNTA_4N WARSAW. BUT ARE NOT?CONFIOENT OF , IT.... THE
SOVIETS HAVE NOT 'FULLY . COMMITTEG,:3HEIR PRE$TIOE"OR
AUTHORITY TO THE SUCCESS OF.MARTIAL LAW IN POLAND,
TO THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT IN WARSAW OR TO JARUZELSKI
PERSONALLY, THEY ARE KEEPING UP THE PRES3URE,ON
JARUZELSKI. THE SOVIET UNION HAS.-NOT SO FAR,COMMITTED
ITSELF TO ANY FURTHER COURSE OF ACTION, IN POLAND= NONE
OF THE SOVIET OPTIONS HAS BEEN CLOSED.
3. WE BELIEVE,THE SOVIETS KEENLY UNDERSTAND-THE
COSTLINESS OF ALL THEIR OPTIONS IN?eOLANQ. THEY.ARE.
NOW ENGAGED IN DAMAGE LIMITATION EFFORTS. _IN..OUR VIEW,
THE PRIMARY SOVIET NEEDS ARE FOR ORDER ON-THEIR
WESTERN BORDER AND SECURE LINES OF,COMMVNICATION TO
THEIR.ARMIES IN-GERMANY, IF,THEJ$JNTA IN_WARSAW CAN
PULL THE DOMESTIC--SITUATION TOGETHER.AND ACHIEVE.$OME
REASONABLE. FORM OF STABILITY, WE BELIEVE THE SOVIETS
0
0
0
0
0
?
?
0
0
?
?
0
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
0
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
?
? SECRET
STATE
?
wwwwwwwwwwwwwwww-wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwBUwwwwwwww wwwwwwwwwwwSwwwwwwwwwww wwwwwwww-.
81 7682491 580
- v, :eAGE .QQ3.: _ _ NC ?768x491 ?.
i r .-......_._......?_........Y..,roa:.xois3lz.oc.e~,....., ..?..,
w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w ww w ww w w w w w w w ww w w w~. w w w w r w w w w g w w w w ww w w w w o w w w w w w w w w?
WILL BE WILLING TO ACCEPT AN, ENORMOUS.PRICEz .THE
REPLACEMENT, AT-LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING,QF-A CQMMUNZST
PARTY GOVERNMENT IN POLAND WITH A NBTIONALIST.MILITARY
ONE, THE SOVIETS PROBABLY FEAR, 'TH8T, THE .NEW POLISH-
GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT WILL NOT ONLY BE MORE NATIONALIST.THAN?ITS
PREDECESSORS, BUT PERHAPS ALSO NO MORE COMPETENT IN
BETTING. POLISM WORKERS -TO WORE;.,.AL1003T :CE6TAINLY ..YNE
NEW REGIME WILL BE MORE COSTLY YO,TNE SOVIET UNION.?
NEVERTHELESS, TO.ASSIST THE JUNTA,.CURRENT.INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE SOVIETS ARE ORGANIZING SIZEABLE EMERGENCY
SHIPMENTS OF FOOD AND OTHER AID FROM HERE AND OTHER
FLOC COUNTRIES.
4. jN THE PAST WEEK THE SOVIETS HAVE REACTEP WITH
CAUTION IN THEIR PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON-POLAND. .. . -11
L WE BELIEVE THE EMPHASIS SHOULD BE ON THE WORD "REACT."
THE SQVIETS ARE NOT SEEKING CONFRONTATION OR DISPUTE
i WITH THE WEST. SOME WESTERN PRESS-, ACCOUNTS COMING FROM MOSCOW IN.RECENT.DAYS HAVE GROSSLY
EXAGGERATED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RESTRAINED
SIGNALS WHICH THE SOVIETS HAVE BEEN-SENDING TO THE
WEST. WE THINK THE SOVIETS ARE PLAYING 17 VERY COOL,
AND WANT THE UNITED STATES To DO THE SAME.
? END SUMMARY.
5. WE ASSUME.THE SOVIETS HAD-SUBSTANTIAL KNOWLEDGE
OF JARUZELSKI'S MOVE IN ADVANCE. WITHOUT QUESTION,
THEY FELT STRONGLY THAT DRASTIC MEA$PRES WERE REQUIRED
TO PROTECT THEIR INTERESTS IN-POLAND, :THEREFORE,
WHATEVER THE DOMESTIC CONSIDERATIONS OF.THE POLISH
GENERALS, WE BELIEVE THEY SEIZED POWER TO.PREVENT
FURTHER POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DETERIORATION WHICH
L WOULD HAVE BEEN UNACCEPTABLE TO THE KREMLIN.
? ?? IT IS INCONCEIVABLE THAT THE METICULOUS?PREPARATIONS
FOR THE COUP COULD HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT WITHOUT THE
0 EXDIS
KNOWLEDGE,'AND AGREEMENT, OF THE SOVIET FORCES COMMANDER
SECRET
?
?
?
?
?
?
e
C
?
?
?
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2 0
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
6
1 0
SECRET
STATE
.
wwwwwwwrrwrwwwrrrwrwwwwwwwwrwwwwr~jrrwwwwwrrwwwwrrwrrwwww.r~wrwww~.wwwiwwrrrrwrr.
81 7682491 SSO , SAGE, Q04 _ , . NC J6e2491
._..~._.... _,......... .?..IOR;,2419312.DEC.OI ........................ ,_..
tf wwwwwwwwwwwwwrrr.wwrwwwwwww~rwwrrrwrwwwwwwwwwwrrwriwwrw*wwrwrwwwwwwr~Swwwwwwa.
?
?
AND KGB REPRESENTATIVES IN POLAND.
? -- FOR MONTHS THE SOVIETS HAVE BEEN, TELLING THE POLES
PUBLICLY AND PRIVATELY THAT CONTINUED AND INCREASING
DISORDER ON THE SOVIET WESTERN BORDER WAS INTOLERABLE.
ww THE SOVIETS HAVE PRETTY CLEARLY INDICATED THAT- THEY?
WOULD NOT SUBSIDIZE A POLISH ECONOMY IN WHICH SOLIDARITY
CALLED THE SHOTS,
w+ REMEMBERING EVENTS IN HUNGARY IN 1956 AND IN
CZECHOSLOVAKIA IN 1968, THE SOVIETS MUST HAVE.FEAREQ
THAT-THE DIRECTION OF POLISH REFORM.-WOULD ULTIMATELY
THREATEN POLAND'S POSITION IN THE_66RSAW-PACT.AND-
HENCE THE SOVIET LINES, OF COMMUNICATION TO THEIR FORWARD
ARMIES IN EAST GERMANY.
?
wr THE CREATION OF A POWER-SHARING ARRANGEMENT-AMONG
THE POLISH GOVERNMENT, THE CHURCH AND SOLIDARITY WOULD
i RELEGATE THE POLISH COMMUNIST PARTY-(AND THEREBY ALL
. L OF MOSCOW'S LOYAL HENCHMEN IN POLAND) TO.A SUBSIDIARY
ROLE WITHIN THE WEAKEST OF THE THREE PARIS OF THE .
TRIUMVERATE. SOLIDARITY AND..THE CATHOLIC_CHURCH..ARE
HATEFUL TO THE KREMLIN AS BOTH-THE SEAT.OF.SOVIET
POWER AND-THE REPOSITORY OP_RUSSIAN1$ATIONALISM._
? ;-THIS IS SIMPLY A TERRIBLE TIME IN SOVIET HISTORY.
FOR THEIR CONTROL IN POLAND TP BREAK DOWN; THE.SOVIET
ECONOMY IS A MESS; AGRICULTURE IS,.A,DISASTER; THE
AMERICANS ARE RISING TO THEIR-CHALLENGE WORLDWIDE;
THE CHINESE ARE IN CAHOOTS WITH THE. AMERICANS;
AFGHANISTAN IS MUCH MESSIER THAN THEY EXPECTED; AND,
THE WHOLE WORLD REGARDS SOVIET IDEOLOGY AS BANKRUPT,
TO CROWN IT ALL, THE POWER STRUCTURE IS FACING AN, 41
INTERREGNUM FROM WHICH NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE OUTCOME,
6. DESPITE 30VIET CRIES FOR ACTION AGAINST-SOLIDARITY,
i THE IMPOSITION OF A MILITARY-GOVERNMENT IN.FOLAND IS
NOT LIKELY TO MAKE THE SOVIETS REALLY HAPPY;
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
?
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
0
SECRET
-STATE
Ifl
...................................._..............._......_...
ww??,~??w?w?????w???w ?ww?ww?????www???ww?.wwww?www?w?ww~?wwwwwwwwww?i?ww???w???
81 7682491 880 1,1AGE 045 NC.7682491 9
TREATS SOLIDARITY.AND THE CHURCH SERIOUSLY; THE..___
PARTY_IS NOTABLE-FOR ITS ABSENCE FROM THE LEADERSHIP
AND FROM THE NEWS.P
? ?-
EVEN IF SOLIDARITY CAN BE.EFFECTIVELY?COtTROLLED.
to SIG !IF :INDEED}, .POLAND WOULD-THEN BE IN-THE-HANDS,
OF THE MILITARY AND..THE CATHQLIC_CHURCH;.RUSSIANS ARE
WEANED ON HISTORICAL. HATRED AND FEAR OF THESE TWO
POLISH INSTITUTIONS.
?? DURING A PERIOD OF MILITARY.RULE. POLAND WILL REMAIN
USELESS AND UNRELIABLEAS AN EFFECTIVE MEMBER OF THE
WARSAW PACT; THE REAR OF THE GRQUP OF SOVIET FORCES,
GERMANY, WILL STILL BE INSECURE.
?? THE POLISH ECONOMY WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A MAJOR
LIABILITY TO THE ENIIRE SOVIET BLOC. EVEN IF THE
MILITARY CAN PREVENT STRIKES, THEY MAY NOT BE ABLE..TO
GET ANYONE TO WORK VERY HARD. IF CURRENT. , SIGNS. OF
LARGE EMERGENCY. FOOD SHIPMENTS FROM THE BLOC ARE
RELIABLE, THE COSTS OF SUBSIDIZING THE JUNTA ARE
EXDIS
GOING TO BE STEEP, AND UNPOPULAR MERE,
?? THE .MARTIAL LAW. REGIME.. IS A HUGE GAMBLE IN WHICH
MANY OF-THE CHIPS BELONG TO MOSCOW. IF THE JUNTA FAILS,
THE SOVIETS FACE THE NIGHTMARE THEY-HAVE AVOIDED.
EVER SINCE THE POLISH CRISIS STARTED: THE-PROSPECT OF
THEIR OWN INTERVENTION AND LONG-TERM OCCUPATION OF
POLAND.
..._._.._..........:TORS.2015312.DEC_01.,........._,_...._..... ...
ww??w?w?w?.???.??-?ww?????wwwww???--wwww-??????w? w?ww?w??wwww???w??rw?w?.????~
-? SO_FAR, THE POLI$HV.COMMUNI$T_PARTY IS THE:.ODD.MAN
OUT OF THE STRUGGLE. THE JUNTA_IN,.ARSAW.,AT LEAST
?- WORST OF ALLe_THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP MUST CONTINUE
TO WATCH ITS SUPPOSED CLIENT. STATE?DETERMINE ITS OWN
DESTINY, THE SUCCESS_.OR FAILURE OF.THE MILITARY. -
REGIME WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE-REACTIONS OF, MILLIONS
PF POLES, NOT BY THE DECISIONS OF THE KREMLIN.
0
?
?
0
?
0
?
C
0
0
?
0
0
S
i
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2 0
SECRET
0
STATE
. .. . s . . s . . ? .. ? s s s ? . . . . ? s s s ? . . s s s . . . . s . . ? . . ? M . - . . s . . v s ? . ? ? 1 i ? f ? s ? s ? s ? ? ? ? s s
81 7682491 $80 _ .? SAGE.006- NC 7682491
k L -_....,.... ......._.........TOR~.20i531Z_DEC_81 ..................,........~..
7. BAD A$-THE MESS. IN POLAND?MUST, LOOK TO THE SOVIET. ..
LEADERSHIP, IN THE PAST WEEK IT DOES HAVE SOME REDEEMING
-0 FEATURES:
~? SOMETHING HAS BEEN DONE AT.LASTI?THE.SLOW DRIFT INTO
CHAOS HAS AT LEAST BEEN DEFLECTED IF NOT STOPPED.
z, ?? THE MILITARY RULERS OF *POLAND_ARE -NOT MEN LIKELY 'T0
FORGET THE POLICY AND PSYCHOLOGICAL NEEDS.OF SOVIET
RUSSIA) THEY MAY NOT BE LOYAL MOSCOW STOOGES, BUT THEY
ARE COMMITTED TO ESTABLISHING..ORDER. ORDER IS
FUNDAMENTALLY WHAT MOSCOW WANTS.
?? THE JUNTA HAS CLEARLY DECLARED jjS ADHERENCE TO
ITS WARSAW PACT OBLIGATIONS. IT MAY BE MILITARILY.
IMPOTENT BUT THE-POLISH GOVERNMENT IS NOT THREATENING
A REPETITION OF 1956 IN HUNGARY OR 1968 IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA.
"? SO FAR, THE POLISH-POLICE AND MILITARY,SEEM TO BE
FOLLOWING ORDERS. THIS MUST-.BE A HUGE RELIEF TO
MOSCOW, EVEN IF THE KREMLIN IS STILL HOLDING ITS
BREATH.
S ?~ IF.THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT CAN LAST,_THERE IS SOME
DISTANT PROSPECT THAT-POLAND-WILL-PULL-'ITSELF TOGETHER
AND BECOME AT LEA$T,,ECONQMICALLY FOUCTiONALI-. THE_
HUNGARIANS DID IT AFTER 1956; :THE''EAST -GERMANS DjQ 'I7
AFTER THE WALL WENT UP; THE CZECHS DID IT AFTER 1966.
8. DESPITE THEIR OBVIOUS FOREKNOWLEDGE.OF THE.COUP,
WE BELIEVE,THERE ARE CLEAR INDICATIONS THE SOVIETS
ARE FAR FROM CONFIDENT OF THE OUTCOME OF-MARTIAL LAW
IN POLAND AND ARE UNWILLING TO. EXPLICITLY COMMIT.
1 THEMSELVES TO ITS SUCCESS. ONE EFFECT 13.TO KEEP
PRESSURE ON JARUZELSKI. NOTHING.THF 30VIETS HAVE
PUBLICLY SAID SO FAR WOULD FORECLOSE ANY FURTHER.ACTION
THEY MAY FEEL COMPELLED TO.TAKE. DESPITE SOME ESCALATION
OF THE RHETORIC IN THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE SOVIET PUBLIC
i REACTION TO EVENTS IN POLAND HAS SO FAR BEEN VERY
CAUTIOUS:
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
?
0
r
41
f
0
0
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
SECRET
?
:STATE
? ? . s ? ? v s ... ? s s s ? .. ? ? ? ? a ? + ? ? . .
? . - - ? ? . . . . . . .. . . ? ? ..... ? . ..................
w w- w-*- -www * w w--*- w w w w w w w ?www *? w * w- -www ? w w w w- ?www --* w w. w w w w w w w w w- w r w w* w w?-.-.
_0 81 7682491 350 _... :PAGE .QQ7 NC 7682491
?? ? - --- ._..__._...:TOR;.?01$31Z_.DEC_61....?_???..??.._.. ??.???.._
a...wwwwwww-?wwwwawwwwwwwww--www-*----a..wwwwwwwwww?*wwww*-.w-w-w-wwww--w-www.
?r? THE SOVIETS HAVE-GIVEN ONLY. LIMITED PUBLIC :APPROVAL
TO THE IMPOSITION OF MARTIAL LAWI ,,THE1( ?NAVE,STOPPED,
? SHORT, OF OUTRIGHT ENDORSEMENT.OF JARUZELSKI'S.HANDLING
L OF IT, -SOVIET PRESTIGE AND AUTHORITY HAVE NOT BEEN
VESTED IN ANY ULTIMATELY CONSTRAINING WAY._ON_JHE
OUTCOME OF-THIS GAMBLE BY THE POLISH MILITARY.
--'IT IS IN THE INTERESTS OF`BOTH:TNE KREMLIN LEADERS
AND THE POLISH GENERALS TO-CONCEAL THE EXTENT OF ,,
SOVIET INVOLVEMENT IN THE COUP.- THE GENERALS DON'T.
WANT TO BE SEEN AS SOVIET PUPPETSI.THE SOVIETS DON'T
WANT TO FOCUS WORLD CRITICISM ON THEMSELVES.
?? THE SOVIETS HAVE_CONT_INUED,TO_BLAST SOLIDARITY,
BUT THEY HAVE KEPT THEIR HANDS OFF THE CATHOLIC CHURCH
AND HAVE BITTEN THEIR LIPS ABOUT THE ARREST OF
i EXDIS
PROMINENT PARTY FIGURES. THE-SOVIETS ARE CONSPICUOUSLY
NOT CALLING FOR ACTION OR AN ASSERTION OF AUTHORITY
BY THE POLISH PARTY; THEY ARE IGNORING THE POLISH
COMMUNIST. MOVEMENT ALMOST AS MUCH AS IS THE JUNTA
? IN WARSAW.
tww~$OVIET MEDIA ARE-NOT NOW COMMUNICATING TO-THE.-
POPULACE HERE THAT A-SHOWDOWN,:TN..POI.AND.REQUIRING_
SOVIET ACTION IS IMMINE(VT,.POLISH REPORTING IS BEING:
TREATED WITH KID.GLOVES. IN,.RECENT_DAYS,_THIS REPORT
HAS MIXED GRIM-ACCOUNTS OF.CLASHES.AND DEATHS.,WITH_ ?
INCREASING, BUT STILL..IMPLICIT, EXPRESSIONS_OF_SAT.IS?
FACTION. NO IMPLICATION OF A_BREAKDOWN IN CONTROL ,,
BY POLISH SECURITY FORCES IS BEING GIVEN. TO THE SOVIE
PUBLIC,. BUT NEITHER ARE THEY BEING A8SUkED OF A GOOD
OUTCOME.
?? IN-THE FIRST DAYS AFTER TdE_COUP, THE SOVIETS WERE
NEARLY SILENT ABOUT WESTERN-INFLUENCE IN POLAND. -
MORE RECENTLY, THEY HAVE REACTED TO WESTERN,_ESPECIALLY
AMERICAN, STATEMENTS DRAWING-THE OBVIOUS CONCLUSION .
L OF SOVIET COMPLICITY IN. THE COUP BY. ACCUSING THE-WEST
OF ENCOURAGING, AIDING AND EVEN DIRECTING THE ACTIONS
?
.?
SECRET
? Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
?
?
?
?
?
?
C
?
?
?
?
?
 'STATE
.~~ 81 7682491 850 .. , MACE .008 .. NC 7682491
.-w ...... .. ............'-?.?.T06s.201931Z.DEC.81..??_??_S?....?e...........
..f OF SOLIDARITY. HOWEVER, THESE HAVE..BEEN SOVIET-
REACTIONS, NOT INITIATIVES, AND THEY HAVE BEEN CARRIED
'.~ AT LOW MEDIA LEVELS WITHOUT OFFICIAL IMPRIMATEUR.
?? SOVIET COMMENTARY IS DEVELOPING TWO THEMES IN
RESPONSE TO THE PRESIDENT'S,PRESS CONFERENCE: AMERICAN
,s.. -INVOLVEMENT"?IN SOLIDARITY'S ALLEGED PLANS To_8EIZE
POWER AND THE AMERICAN "ECONOMIC BLOCKADE" OF POLAND
0
? AS A RESPONSE TO MARTIAL LAW. THESE THEMES ARE. _ ?
i L LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS,_THE SOVIETS TRY
TO PRQVE THAT THE WEST SOUGHT TO SABOTAGE.POLAND
POLITICALLY BEFORE THE MILITARY TAKEOVER AND IS NOW
SEEKING TO'SABOTAGE POLAND ECONOMICALLY.
?~ THE SOVIETS HAVE NOT USED-THE GATHERING OF EAST.,
BLOC PARTY CHIEFS IN MOSCOW FOR BREZHNEV'S BIRTHDAY
TO-BEAT THE DRUMS ON POLAND; INDEED, THE SILENCE ON
THIS.SUBJECT HAS BEEN STRIKING. ..THE TONE OF.
JARUZELSKI'S BIRTHDAY GREETINGS TO_BREZHNEV SUGGESTS
A POSSIBILITY THAT JARUZELSKI_WOVLD,LIKE_,A MORE
i WHOLEHEARTED COMMITMENT AND CONFIDENCE FROM MOSCOW.
WHAT ARE THE SOVIETS TRYING TO_TEL4 US IN..THEIR
PUBLIC STATEMENTS ABOUT POLAND DURING THE PAST WEEK?
?? ,THE SOVIET . GOVERNMENT IS_STILL.-WHISTLING ;N THE
DARK ABOUT THE TREMORS ON ITS WESTERN BORDER.
,? THE SOVIETS WANT SOME KIND OF ORDER IN POLAND BUT
THEY HAVE NO BETTER IDEAS NOW ABOUT HOW TO ACHIEVE IT
THAN DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS.
?~ WHILE THEY APPARENTLYARE..WILLING TO`PLACE FOOD
SUPPLIES AND CREDITS ON THE LINE TO.BACK.THE GAMBLE,
THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP IS NOT-SVFFICIENTLY CONFIDENT
-? ABOUT THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT-IN-WARSAW TO GIVE IT
OVERT SOVIET SANCTION AND SUPPORT?
? To THE SOVIETS ARE TRYING TO ACT COOL WHILE THE MILITARY
IN POLAND TRIES TO BEAT DOWN, THE FLAKESJ..THEY WANT
EVERYONE ELSE TO PLAY IT COOL AS WELL. CAUTIOUS
40
0
0
40
C
0
s
0
?
?
0
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
?
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
SECRET
-STATE-
n
o
?
S
? a ? ? - . .. . ? ., a a ? ? . ? r ? . ? s r ? ? ? _ . ? . ? . . a s . ? v ? a s ? . < r s ? s ? ? ? ? ? + . ? ? . .
81 7682491 830 , SAGE 009_ NC?7682491
r - . . ? ? r ? - s . . ? ? > w r a e v . v r ? . ? w v . r ? ? ? e ? ? M . ? 1 ? .. f ? i . ? ? ? e ?~ e `
.TOS? 2015312 OEC.$i.
?
STATEMENTS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, ARE.' GREETED WITH
EITHER SILENCE QR MILD APPROVAL. VQRE PROVOCATIVE
STATEMENTS (IN THE SOVIET VIEWPOINT) ARE PARRIED
PUBLICLY, BUT AT A LOW LEVEL AND WITHOUT OFFICIAL
IMPRIMATEUR.
r,w. IN, SHORT, THE SOVIETS ARE-HOPING FOR. A MIFACLE..F.ROM
THE_MEN ON ' HORSEBACK' IN. WARSAW, BUT THEY WON'T REALLY.
.~ BELIEVE IT TILL THEY SEE IT.
S EXDIS
10. WHAT DO THE SOVIETS FEEL THEY MUST HAVE IN POLAND?
?
k ?? SOME SEMBLANCE OF ORDER.
?? NO THREAT TO THE INTEGRITY OF THE WARSAW PACT'S
LINES OF COMMUNICATION.
?? SOME EXPECTATION THAT THE_POLISH ECONOMY WILL NOT
BE-A BASKET CASE INDEFINITELY.
?? SOME PROSPECT THAT-CONDITIONS WILL BE CREATED FOR
THE ULTIMATE RESTORATION OF REAL PARTY RULE.
?? ABOVE ALL, SOME PROGRESS TOWARD? AN END -TO UNCERTAINTY.
THE ENDLESS DRAMA OF THE POLISH CRISIS.IS_8IMPLY TOO
STRAINING FOR A SOVIET I.EADEgSHIP IN ITS TWILIGHT YEARS.
THEY WANT PREDICTABILITY ON THEIR WESTERN BORDER,
it, WHAT ARE THE SOVIETS WILLING TO PAY?
? k ?? MILITARY RATHER THAN COMMUNIST PARTY.-RULE IN THEIR
LARGEST CLIENT STATE CAT LEAST FOR-THE TIME BEING),
?. A POLISH REGIME WHICH IS MORE NATIONALIST.THAN
SOCIALIST AND MORE PRO-POLISH THAN PRO-SOVIET,
? ?~ THE CONTINUATION, UNDER MILITARY GUIDANCE. OF SOME
OF THE POST-1980 REFORMS.
s
SECRET
0
0
0
0
db
?
S
0
I
0
C
?
?
?
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
 'SECRET
:STATE
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? w ? ? ? +? ? ? r ? ? r ? s ? ? f ? ? a ? ? ? i ! ? ? ? ? ! A s ? ? a ? ? .~ ? ? ? ? r a ? ! i ? ? ? ? ? r r ? ! ? ? ? a ? ? ? ? ?
16 $1-,7682491 380 eA@E 210 _ 'NC .7662491'
r
T
ss_!?!'?- r-.?.???...#!.?.?.;TO$,i?201531Z.DEC?81 ?...?.a??!!???.??!!i?i?,
t6V s~wwwwwwwwwwwwwwrwwwwwwww*lowwwww~.wwwRwwwwwwwwwwwwsfwwwww~wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwAw~ww.
Is we PUBLIC 'SILENCE ON DEVELOPING TRENDS 'IN..POLAND WHICH
ARE HISTORICALLY AND IDEOLOGICALLY HATEFUL TO THE
7(? KREMLIN.
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
IN MOSCOW WILL PROBABLY GO ALONG WITH-THE,
0
:,gXPEDIENTS,THE_JUNTA .,CHOOSES TO EMPLOY WITHIN POLAND,
THE ' SOVIET .MOTIVATIONS
12. FOR THE SOVIET.LEADERSHIP, THE MESS_'IN POLAND
IS THE WORST KIND OF CRISIS,.'IN THE_WORST POSSIBLE
PLACE.AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME. ,.DURING THE PAST
EOUR:CENTURIES THE RUSSIAN NATIONAL_MIND_HAS BEEN
FIXATED ON THE EXPERIENCE OF._NTHE,T,IME OF TROUBLES,"
WHEN_ORDER:IN THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE COLLAPSED WITH A__ -
CONSIDERABLE ASSIST FROM CATHOLIC POLAND. SINCE THAT
TIME, THE MAINTENANCE OF ORDER WITHTN,THE-EMPIRE HAS
TAKEN-,PRECEDENCE OVER ALL OTHER GOALS. .THE PRESENT
SOVIET-EMPIRE, DESPITE ITS, MASSIVE..INERTIAL.STRENGTH.
IS SUFFERING MAJOR STRAINS. WE SE61EVE THAT-THE ;OM
PELLING.SOVIET.REOUIREMENT AND BASIC GOAL WITHIN ITS
POLISH "PROVINCE" IS THE RESTORATION OF ORDER. WE
HAVE-NO DOUBT THAT THE SOVIET, LEADERSHIP WOULD BE
WILLING TO ESTABLISH.THIS ORDER WITH THE BAYONETS OF,
THE RED ARMY, IF-THEY THOUGHT,SUCH_A MOVE...WOULD.WORK.
THE. EXPERIENCE -OF THE PAST To "YEA88 ;INPICATE5,. THAT-
THEY -HAVE BEEN-CONVINCED TMAT. MILT? RY .,ACTION _'TN
POLAND WOULD BE A.DISASTER FOR SOVIET POLICY,AND
THAT ONLY POLES CAN_EFFECTIVELY GOVERN_POLES....TO
SURRENDER CONTROL-OF POLISH AFFAIRS INTO THE HANDS
OF-THE POLISH M14.ITARY:IS-ITSELF A.MAJOR DEFEAT FOR
THE SOVIET-UNION. IT MEANS, IN ESSENCE,,THAT MOSCOL_
MUST SACRIFICE IT$.OWN CONTROL WITHIN Az LARGE PART-OF
ITS EMPIRE,TO ACHIEVE ORDER THERE..-.WE BELIEVE THAT
52 THIS.,IS A SACRIFICE THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP IS RELUCTANTLY
WILLING TO.MAKE. WE ALSO BELIEVE THAT-IF FACED WITH
CLEAR-.FAILURE BY THE POLISH MILITARY GOVERNMENT, THE
SOVIETS WILL PREFER THEIR OWN CONTROL WITHOUT ORDER
,i TO NEITHER CONTROL NOR ORDER.
rA- FOR THE UNITED STATESt
0
17 *
?
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
i
0
0
0
0
?
I
 SECRET
?
--, ? .. .. . ? > . v . . - . ... ? ? . ? . ? . . s ? s . . ? ? ? . r . s ? ? a ? s w ? . s r t ? ? .. r ? s ? .. ? s ? .. ? ? ? t ? s s ? ..r . .
ii r~swwwww~??www?ww??a*memo w?w?aamaameamWawa w?gwwww?w??wwwliwPmewwwwwwwi(?wawww?wa?
-
?. II -7682491
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2
880
. .. , PAGE . Q i i . _
. NC 7x68249 i
S
_
`
.
? ? ? r !,?.? s i' ? r . a ? s Y . r f r . ? ? _ _ ? v . i ? O ? , Z 4 i 9 3 i Z s O ~.? y a a ? ? . ? ! ? ? .. ? ? ? ? ... ? ? r . ? . s ? ? ? a
.www??wwwww?wwwr~w?wwww?www?ww?ww?wwwwwwww?www?wwllww?ww*iwww?w?w?wi~?w?w??a?.
13. FROM .THE WEST. (WHICH IN. SOVIET EYEB..MEANS_ ABOVE
ALL THE UNITED STATES) THE SOVIETS WANT ACCEPTANCE OF
EXDIS
22
0 THEIR BASIC REQUIREMENT FOR_ORDER IN POLAND...?THEY
ALSO, .EXPECT UNDERSTANDING OF.;HOW. -MUCH ,THEY . ARE...
?It SD. THEY-:ALSO.KNOW THEY HAVEvPRECIOUS~LITTLE.LEVERAGE
OVER OTHER WESTERN ACTIONS IN-THE POLISH-.CRISIS. BUT.
THEY_DON'T~REALLY MUCH CARE IE WESTERN-BANKS LOSE THEIR
MONEY AND THEY CAN ENDURE WHAT-THE WESTERN PRESS,
WESTERN PUBLICS AND EVEN WESTERN COMMUNIST PARTIES
SAY ABOUT POLAND.., THE-SOVIETS LOOK,AT THE WORLD.IN
VERY-TRADITIONAL'"GREAT POWER".TERMS. THEY SIMPLY
DON'T BELIEVE THAT. WESTERN GOVERNMENTS CANNOT AND
WILL NOT ACKNOWLEDGE THEIR PA$SION,-FOR ORDER WITHIN
THEIR EMPIRE. JO THE.EXTENTTHE WEST DOES.NOT.
ACKNOWLEDGE THIS SOVIET "RIGHT," THE.KREMLIN WILL
NURSE A GRUDGE, LOOK FOR OTHER OUTLETS FPR ITS..
BITTERNESS, AND SIMPLY ENDURE WHAT COMES. S0 FAR,
HOWEVER, THE KREMLIN HAS BEEN MUCH-MORE CONCERNED..
WITH THE ONGOING GAMBLE OF THE POLISH MILITARY. THE
SOVIETS ARE NOT SEEKING A CONFRONTATION,.WITH-THE
R-== - iNITED-STATES OVER..'PQL.AND iAND 'HOPE : JO. MINIMIZE, 7THE-
C03T8 IN ;TMEIR -RELATIONS WITH 1HE' -WEST,
L L
. 14, WARSAW MINIMIZE CONSIDERED, 'HARTMAN
s
S
0
0
0
0
0
?
1 _
0
0
I
6!
END OF MESSAGE SECRET
. =STATE
?
S
I r
0 0
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP84B00049R000200320017-2