BLOCK IV: THE U.S. AND A CHANGING WORLD

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030020-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2003
• Sequence Number: 20
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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BLOCK IV: THE U.S. AND A CHANGING WORLD
The objective of Block IV is to bring Seminar members
up to date on new trends in foreign and national security
policies and on recent developments in the international
arena affecting intelligence work.
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THE US IN WORLD PERSPECTIVE
The focus of this analysis will be upon how the US is
viewed from abroad after a quarter century of,world leader-
ship and dominance. Drawing on his personal contacts with
officials and businessmen from abroad and upon articles from
foreign journals and newspapers, the speaker will reflect
current foreign perceptions of America's leadership, sense of
purpose and political, economic and military influence. The
importance of the psychological element in the conduct of US
policy and the bearing which domestic US issues are seen as
having on foreign policy will be assessed and, within limits,
projected ahead.
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US FOREIGN POLICY TODAY
A broad overview of current US foreign policy will forma
the basis of this presentation. The speaker will briefly
treat the evolution of US foreign policy since 1945 as the
context for a more detailed treatment of the Administration's
approach to foreign affairs as embodied in the Nixon Doctrine.
The impact of the Nixon Doctrine on the emerging patterns-of
political, military and economic relations among nations, will
be explored as will the probable role of'the US in the new
international environment.
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US-SOVIET RELATIONS IN THE SEVENTIES
US-Soviet relations will continue to have a marked
imprint or world affairs during the decade of the Seventies.
The distinguished speaker will present his views on the areas
and issues in the international arena where Soviet and US
interest are likely to be congruent and those where the US
and Soviet Union will find themselves in conflict. Other
factors which the speaker sees as influencing the nature of
these relations, such as international social and political
dissent, arms control, leadership changes, ending of conflict
in Southeast Asia, will also be presented.
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THE STRATEGIC BALANCE: THE FOUNDATION FOR WORLD ORDER
The strategic relationship between the Super Powers which
dominates world affairs today and is likely to continue through
the 1970's will be examined by a leading authority. The dis-
cussion will turn on the political and theoretical underpinnings
of strategic equality and deterrence rather than on inventories
of military hardware. The considerations which have led the Soviet
Union and the United States to stabilize the military balance,
the forces which will continue to exert pressure on both sides to
maintain or to disrupt that stability, the impact of nuclear
deterrence on the future shape of international relations--parti-
cularly its influence on multipolar world--are questions which
will. be examined.
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JAPAN: EMERGING SUPERPOWER?
A leading authority on Japan will outline the political,
economic and social forces which have combined:to propel this
small island nation toward the ranks of superpower and a
nation with an important role in the multipolar world. The
speaker will share his views on whether Japan will continue to
concentrate on economic growth and trade or will seek to trans-
late her tremendous economic power into political and military
power. He will analyze the challenges and potential options
perceived by Japan's leaders, particularly with respect to
relations with the United States, the Soviet Union, and China,
and conclude with what he regards are the major problems which
Japan poses for the US in the seventies.
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WESTERN EUROPE: ALLY OR RIVAL?
An academic authority, former foreign policy maker and
long-time Agency consultant will survey the growing power
of "Europe" and its significance for US policy. Prospective
changes in our relations with Western Europe--military,
economic, and particularly political arrangements--and their
long-range effect on the US-Soviet balance in Europe will be
the focus. The speaker will. draw attention to problem areas
which are likely to develop for the US policy maker during
the balance of the seventies.
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WORLD POPULATION PROBLEMS
A thought-provoking point of view on the world population
problem will be presented by a knowledgeable and articulate
member of the medical profession. The speaker will provide
an appreciation for the magnitude and dimensions of world
population problems and will emphasize the complexities of
merely understanding the forces at work in the global popula-
tion explosion. His talk will highlight those social, economic,
technological and medical elements which affect population growth
and those which hinder efforts to control and regulate growth.
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THE WORLD ECONOMY: A NEW DIMENSION IN US FOREIGN POLICY
A key policy adviser will briefly review changes in the
wcrld economy which led to the President's decision to float
the dollar and end its convertibility into gold. He will
indicate the direction the United States is heading on major
international economic issues, such as restructuring of the
international monetary system and changing the rules of
international trade. Issues and problem countries likely to
pose major negotiating difficulties for the US will be reviewed.
The speaker will also indicate subjects and areas which have the
highest priority for economic intelligence support.
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CHINA TODAY
Against the backdrop of the dramatic visit of the President
to Peking and the amelioration in US-Chinese relations, the
speaker will identify contemporary forces of continuity and
change within the Peoples Republic. His analysis will emphasize
Peking's perceptions of the world and emerging lines of China's
foreign policies, strategic aims, and regional goals--particularly
as these involve the Soviet Union and the United States.
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CHINA AS AN INTELLIGENCE TARGET
The policy maker's growing concern and interest in China
with attendant increased demands for information and analysis
place added burdens upon intelligence resources. A panel of
Agency experts will identify the intelligence gaps on China--
military, political, and economic--and will assess, from the
analytical point of view, the problem of providing the policy
maker with accurate and timely information. The panel will
also discuss the difficulties and problems of acquiring infor-
mation on China with existing and projected intelligence assets
and resources.
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LESSONS OF VIETNAM
A leading authority on Southeast Asia will analyze the
Vietnam conflict from today's vantage point. He will devote
particular attention to developing his views on the mistakes
made, lessons learned and their implications for long term US
foreign and national security policy. He will share his views
on the role and effectiveness of US intelligence during the
conflict and its impact on US actions in Vietnam.
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U.S. BUSINESS ABROAD
A member of a leading legal firm, consulted by companies
with overseas interests and operations, will analyze the problems
U.S. business faces overseas.. Drawing from personal experience,
he will offer his views on the the nature and strength of inter-
national competition and suggest the means which the federal
government, particularly its foreign policy arm, might take to
assist U.S. business. The discussion will broaden to include
the speaker's analysis of the mulitnational corporation, focusing
upon its effect on trade, balance of payments problems and U.S.
foreign policy interests.
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THE MIDDLE EAST: CASE STUDY IN POLICY FORMULATION
With the Middle East as the focal point, the speaker
will discuss the dynamics of US foreign policy making from
the perspective of the NSC Staff. He will identify the major
.problems and principi1 issues which he believes will continue
to occupy the attention of the policy maker. Concentrating on
the Arab-Israeli conflict, the speaker will sketch current US
policies and goals and share his views on the prospects for
achieving long-term objectives, particularly as these clash
with other interests and forces in the area.
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MIDDLE EAST: CASE STUDY IN INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT
A senior intelligence officer with extensive analytical
experience in Middle Eastern affairs will comment on the pre-
ceeding presentation from the perspective of an intelligence
officer. His comments will include examples which illustrate
problems involved in keeping the policy maker informed and,
projecting ahead, the prospects of fulfilling his future needs.
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WORLDWIDE POLITICAL TRENDS
Against the background of the political-economic
ideologies which have dominated the 20th century thus far--
nationalism, capitalism, communism--a leading political
scientist will examine the nature of such newer phenomena as
the "New Left," resurgent political terrorism, and "the counter-
culture," The impact of these trends on the present and future
conduct of international relations, as well as prospects for
the older ideologies, will be assessed. Probable international
power struggles and major regional developments will also
receive attention.
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POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE THIRD WORLD
The presentation will center on the, major political
trends emerging in the underdeveloped nations of Latin
America, Africa and Asia and the long term problems posed
by these trends for US foreign policy. Although some attention
will be devoted to the social, economic and technical factors
which hinder development and encourage political change, the
emphasis will be upon. the speaker's analysis of the political
systems which are likely to prove most durable in the different
underdeveloped areas. He will also comment on the prospects
for achieving US aims in the third world under the Nixon Doctrine.
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TECHNOLOGY: MEASURE OF WORLD POWER?
Against a broad review of major trends in technological
innovation, this analysis will focus on the function of
technology as a factor in determining the future distribu-
tion of power--political as well as military--among nations.
The speaker will be invited to share his views on the relation-
ship of technological change to future US foreign policy
objectives.
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THE UN: WHAT ROLE IN WORLD AFFAIRS?
The United Nations has largely been ignored in recent
years by the major powers as an instrument for settling dis-
putes and for promoting national interests. A knowledgeable
speaker will share his views on the likely role of the UN in
the future, particularly in a world of shifting power centers
and changing regional groupings. He will also consider the
prospects for having the UN deal with a new type of inter-
national problem--such as terrorism, international drug traffic,
and environmental control--which may be more susceptible to
attack through this international body than on a bilateral or
other limited basis.
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