CONTENTS OF BLACK NOTEBOOKS KEPT IN ONE BY SOVIET MILITARY ESTIMATORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00499R000500100003-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 29, 2004
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: July 16, 1971
• Content Type: MFR

Approved For Release 24: CIA-RDP84-00499R000500100003-8
16 July 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT ~: Contents of Black Notebooks Kept in ONE by Soviet
Military Estimators
VOLUME III: QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATES, MAJOR. SOVIET FORCE COMPONENTS
AND WZAPON SYSTEMS
1.* Terns of Reference, Second Draft, Estimative History
of Soviet Military Programs and Policy Since 1950, by
S toward) Stoertz, 12 March 1963, 4 pp., S. Terms of
reference for a historical review of the development of
Soviet military forces since 1950. Major headings: I.
Validation and Modification of Physical Series. II. Human and
Physical Resources Committe;l. III. Principal Decisions and
Factors Influencing them.
2. Milestones in a Weapon System Program, Draft, by
Hlowardl Stoert , 18 March 1963, 3 pp., C. Working Outline,
with unnumbered headings: kesearch and Development, Production,
Service use, modification or improvements, Qualitative Des-
cription of the ':'rogram, and Sources of Information.
3. Estimated History of Soviet Military Policy and
Programs Since 1950, by S lowardl Stoertz, 20 March 1963, 2 pp.,
8. Outline for a study: Reasons.for starting at 1950. Phase
I Validation and modification of historical series. Phase II --
Soviet military decision-making. Phase III - Summary evalua-
tion.
* Consisting of loose papers found in the front part of the
looseleaf notebook which has been designated as Volume II by
the CIA Historical Staff. The HS has the papers in chronological
order and assigned identifying serial numbers.
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4. Memorandum, unaddressed, by I Uoward] Stoertz, Estimative
cry of Soviet Military Programs and Policies Since 1950, 1
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April 1963, 5 pp., s, transmitting Terms of Reference on same
subject, also 1 April 1963, 4 pp., S. Later draft of items 1
and 3 above. Proposes method by which DDI can undertake a
historical study of Soviet military programs and policies in
response to views of DOI Strategic Weapons Coordinating Group.
5. Choosing Strategies and Selecting Weapon Systems,
Address by Dr. Alain C. Enthoven, Deputy Assistant Secretary
of Defense (Systems Analysis), before the Naval War College,
Newport, R.I., 6 June 1963, 24 pp. Addresses question of how
to make fundamental choices of weapon systems and strategies.
Kinds of information needed to make these choices; basis on which
to make choices. Rules by which civilian and military advisors
to policy makers make the final and critical decisions. An
orientation to coat and weapon system analysis.
6. Memorandum for Assistant Director, National Estimates,
by Chairman, CIA/DIA, Joint Analysis Group,
Suggested Approac:les to Meet DOD Requirements for Detailed
Intelligence Support for Planning, 9 July 1963, 4 pp. carbon
copy on JAG letterhead, S. Reviews under five headings his
understanding of or. Enthoven's requirements. Presents choices:
1) It could be done by USIB representatives following com-
pletion of the military NIE, or 2) by JAG, as a planning document
for DOD without formal=' approval by USIB as a body. Favors
second ap-pr;o-ach.
7. Memorandum of Transmittal, by B [owardl Stoertz, Jr.,
to Assistant Director, National Estimates, Chairman, CIA/DIA
Joint Analysis Group, Chief, military-Economic Division, ORR,
12 July 3.963, 5 pp. carbon, classification not indicated..
A compilation of quantitative estimates on Soviet military
forces in current N3E's, prepared in anticipation of discussion
with Dr. Enthoven, next Friday. Discusses: Format and timing,
omissions and inconsistencies, and competing requirements of
policymakers at various levels. Concludes by noting that questions
that arise are whether to increase or decrease level of detail
in the NIE'C; whether another document will have to be scheduled
tailored specifically to DOD planning needs, whether such a
document can be done effectively by the present estimative
mechanisms, and how-to schedule it and related estimates
and projects. Referenced compilation not attached; see next
item.
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8. Draft Memorandum Re : Responsiveness of Soviet
Military Ca aabilities Estimates to DOD Consumer Requirements, by
E Staff, (ONE], 9 pp. carbon, 15 July 1963,
classification not indicated, with Tab A, Proposed Changes to
Series (six) and Soviet Military Estimates,, 7 pp. carbon.
Memorandum proper is in staff study form. Problem: To determine
the general nature of DOD consumer requirements to be met in
national intelligence and to compare current ONE products with
requirements. Discussion of problem is followed by summary
which identifies DOD planning requirement as a package of three
separate elements: 1. Cost effectiveness studies of alternative
Soviet force structures on a 10-year basis. 2. Detailed quanti-
tative and qualitative estimates of Soviet military capabilities
projected for five and 10-year periods. 3. Coordination of the
ONE schedule for production of military estimates with the DOD
planning cycle. Concludes : 1. DOD requirements for USIB-
approved military estimates can be met by annual production ME's
2, Enthoven's suggestions for improvement of military estimates
are only partly within purview of ONE and USIU. 3. ONE should
meet that part of the DOD request which requires quantification
in the longer--term, of trends observable in evidence and
reflected in estimates. 4. ONE should not accept responsibility
for studies of alternatives. Tab A Discusses problem of how to
increase responsiveness of Soviet military estimates to military
plans and policies requirements. Concludes with seven recom-
mendatiores to adapt Soviet military NIE's to DOD needs.
9. Draft Meg orandum, by RE _q 1 ff rnnr1 _ 4- n Orlvi
.e fez,, .KUI ponce to > consumer Requirements for Soviet Military
Capabilities Estimates, 19 July 1963, 17 pp. carbon, classifi-
cation not indicated. In form of staff study. Problem: To
identify DOD needs, intent to which they are met by national
intelligence, extent to which ONE can and should meet DOD
consumer requirem-:nto, and to recommend methods of doing so.
Concludes with eight recommendations for action by ONE and JAG,
to adjust. coverage of present estimates to meet DOD needs.
Would result in annual package of uSin approved data from NIE's
and IAP's for DOD by 15 April, annually.
10., Four Propositions Relating to Enthoven's Request
for a- long-range community estimate of Soviet force structures,
weapons characteristics and costs, unsigned, 26 July 1963, 6
pp. carbon copy. 3. A carbon copy of Volume II, Iter No. 20.
11. Draft a morandum for the Record, 25 July 1963,
revised 22 September 1963, by Dr. Alain Enthoven, Noy e z on
Long-Range Intelligence Projections of Sine-Soviet Forces, 12
pp., S. Copy 5 of 35 copies. Identical with enclosure to
Sherman Kent, 25 September 1963, by Alain Enthoven, OSD, listed
in Volume II, Iteri 19, but without the forwarding memorandum.
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12. Memorandum for the Board of National Estimates, by
H[award] Stoerts, Jr.,_ Proposed Schedule of Soviet Military
Estimates for Calendar 1964, 13 February 1964, 2 pp., S, with
1 p. legal size attachment, Proposed Schedule of Soviet Military
Estimates, Calendar Year 1964 and January 1965, S. An effort to
schedule military NIE's on a one-year basis instead of the
customanr two quarters. Has been informally accepted by DIA
counterparts. Attachment is identical to Volume II, Item 37.
In four copies.
13. Draft Memorandum for: Chairman, Joint 25X'
Analysis Group, by Sharman Kent, Alternative. Projections of Soviet
Military Forces, 1945-1975 (JAG 13-64, 18 December 1964), 28
January 1965, 9 pp. carbon, TS. Thanks 0 for last week's 25X1
briefing on latest JAG draft and presents OIE views on same,
under following headings : Relationship to the NIE's, Strategic
Concepts, The Test of Reasonableness, The Space Program, and The
Ground Forces.
14. Memorandum for : Mr. Allan Eva to (INR), Mr.
DIA, a , Chief, Policy 25X1
Division, NSA, by , Executive officer, National
Estimates, Future production of National Intelligence For
Defense Planning, 1 July 1965, 2 pp. S. USI i representatives
agreed on 15 June to change the IAP to National Intelligence
Projections for Planning (NIPP). The first one, to be produced
in February 1966 will be NIPP-66.
15. Memorandum for Mr. Bross, byl 25X1
NIPE Staff, Threat Studies, DIA Views, 21 cem er 1965, 1. p. S.
Transmits attached draft of a presentation to be given to Gen.
Carroll IDIA prepared by in to office of 25X1
(DIA). View in OSD/SA (Bennington) is that the
SecDef should explicitly request the DCI and General Carroll
for annual threat studies and a NIPP on Soviet, Chinese Communist,
and Warsaw Pact forces early next year. therefore suggestX1
meeting with Ray Cline, Ed Proctor, and to arrive at 25X1
covering memo, which may be a date of receipt, 21 pp. photocopy,
S. Discusses requir nt of military services for very longrange threat estimates and who should prepare them.
16. Draft memorandum, Implicit Intelligence Assumptions
for Force Planning, by Dr. I. Selin, 3 pp. thermofax, TS, with
two thermafax attnchntents. The first is a 1 p. draft list of 13
Intelligence Assumptions, by Dr. Bolin, 29 March 1966, TS. The
second is a four pp. outline of major Force-Oriented Issues,
unsigned, but with the following notation at the bottom of
p. l: C(X3D (SA) , 15 Mar 66, B. The memorandum proper discusses
Soviet ABM and MIP.V threats for 1968-1969 and through the 70's,
studies Attached drai't is without title or signature, rubber
stamped, 23 Dec 1965, same date as rubber stamped on the
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for purposes of DOD planning. Includes numbers of Soviet
missiles required to wipe out Minuteman force.
17. Memorandum for Record (In Pencil: 25X1
unsigned, in staff study form, 3-92-AP-8, 10 Mar 66, 5 pp.
photocopy, S.. Problem: To summarize the record, to outline
the present position, and to state the outlook with respect to
long-range estimates. Reviews the history of such estimating
from 1961 through 1965. Notes that Army is proposing to establish
a 52-man unit at Fort Meade to make long-range threat. dies
needed to buttress Army proposed weapon systems and force
structures and to contract to support this unit to extent of
about $2 million per year. Proposal is based on alleged refusal
of ILIA to produce the necessary studies. Recommends inter alia
that DIAAP explore with Joint Staff, OASD/SA, DDR_ , CIA,
and the Services, the combination of the JAG and the 1IPP
products into a USIB document, the reduction or elimination of
the JIEP, and the expansion of the alternative projection
and related approaches to making long-range estimates of
hdstile military capabilities.
18. Memorandum for the Record, by 25X1
report of attendance at Military Operations Research Symposium
(MORS) at Monterey , week of 23 May, dated 3 June 1966, 4 pp.
carbon, S. found general agreement at the meeting
that the intelligence community should consider how to cope with
the growing demand.: of planning and R&D people for intelligence
assumptions for long-range planning. Related issues include
whether such work should be done in-house or by contractors:
whether it should be a by-product of estimating. This meeting
was widely attended by senior military intelligence analysts
and estimators including award St:ertr of ONE , 2255XX11
DR~t, {SRI', Andrew Z 5X 1
Marshall
.Rand , an others.
19. Memorandum for the Record, by Bruce C. Clarke, Jr. t
Chairman, CIA/DIA, Joint Analysis Group, Meeting with DOD
Civilian, 19 August 1966, 2 pp. carbon, S. Report of meeting
between Clarke and on 17 August 1966 with a
senior civilian of one of service intelligence agencies, who
asked that his comments be kept off the record. The gentleman
commented critically on the SIPP, the JAG Studies, and the JIEP,
which he found incompatible, overlapping, and often out of
date, for ,example: The ABM section of the current NIPP does
not meet the planner's need for information or speak in
language the planner can understand or use. The planner needs 15
or 20 year estimates in loose leaf form so they can be kept
current. They should combine the JAG, NIP?, and JIEP, with
USIS sanction,
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20. JAG Discussion Paper, Draft memorandum byl 25X~
22 August 1966, 12 pp. xerox copy, clasaificati.Dn not indicated.
Discusses alternatives open to JAG in preparation of JAG 17.
In staff study form, but discusses numerous possibilities with-
out reaching conclusions or making recommendations.
21. Memorandum for Director, Defense Intelligence
Agency, by Alain Fntkoven, Assistant Secretary of Defense,
Threat Projection Requirements, 2 March 1967, 3 pp. xerox
drafted by Replies to 25X1
memorandum from DIA, same subject, signed by chard W.
Whitney, Major General, USA, Chief of Staff, 6 January 1967, 1
p. xerox, C, requesting a list of the long-range threat pro-
jection requirements of the DOD from January 1965 on. inthoven's
reply summarizes uses made of such estimates and includes lists
as Attachments A-C, 4 pp. xerox, S.
22, Threat Projection Requirements of Department of
Defense, by Chairman, Study Group,
5 April 1967, 4 pp., C. in staff study form. Addresses
problem of compiling definitive list of threat projection
requirements of DOD, methods for providing such projections, and
determining additional resources DIA will require to support
the list of requirements. Concludes that 558 need for valid
studies has been identified. DIA will need 50 professional
and 10 clerical positions and $746,000 of contractual support
in addition to equipment and space. Recommends approval.
23. Memorandum: for Record, National Intelligence for
Defense Planning, unsigned, undated, 17 pp. TS, copy 9 of 25
copies. Discusses reorientation of JAG Alternative Ten Year
Projections of Soviet Military Forces, NIF'a, (AP's, and JIEP's
to meet needs of DOD planners, along following headings; 1.
DODMajor Program Review Cycle, II. National Intelligence for
Defense Planning, III. Possible Improvements in the NIAP
[National Intelli enee Assumptions for Planning] Process.
Concludes that in future NIAP documents more review and elabora-
tion of consistency of programming relationships and interde-
pendence of various elements is needed.
24. Proposed Distribution List for National Intelligence
Projections for Planning, attachment to unidentified document,
undated, but marked in pencil, NIPP 68, 2 pp. list, paged
A-1 and A-2, S.
Deputy Chief, CIA Historical Staff
25X1
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