WHY ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE ?

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00022R000200070003-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2000
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: July 11, 1951
• Content Type: NOTES

HSJ1C-103.1
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Economic Potential of the USSR
This is the big question that must be answered by broad generalizations
that are based as much as possible on specific knowledge of all important
sectors of the Soviet economy. We need to know how big a war the USSR can
fight? The answer to this question has all sorts ofitmplicationss for US
mobilization and the US economy. We also need to know what kind of war
the USSR can fight? If the USSR can fight major naval and air ca:paigns,
it z 7 ect the way in which we develop our own armed forces. If the
USSR can produce a lot of new weapons in quantity, that -too will have
serious implications for our own planning. Furthermore, the US needs to
'crow how ready is the USSR to fight? A study of the Soviet economy can
answer a large part of this question. Many subsidiary questions go into
the broad analysis of the economic war potential of the USSR. For exampl&
Oil
The Soviets produce only about 1/10 as much oil as the US. Does
this mean that with regard to petroleu the USSR has only 1/10 the
military potential owe US? Pro a ly not. 1'Te now that the USSR does
not use oil for apacerzeating. By analysis of the Soviet transeort system
We can determine that rioverment in their economy requires much less in the
way ofpetroleurx products than in the US. By an analysis of the chemical
industry, we can determine that the USSR does not use large quantities of
petroleum in the manufacture of plastics and other civilian products as
the US does. On the military side we can determine how many planes they
have and the types of fuel they use. We can then determine whether the
USSR can produce enough fuel to keep that number of planes in operation.
Also we can study plane production to project that production rate into
the future. By collrDaring that projected rate with a similarly p projected
rate of fuel production, we can determine the ability of the USSR their military potential within the limits of their petroleum production.
Machine Tools
The USSR has depended heavily in the past on import of machine tools
from the US and Europe. At the sale time they have given a high priority
to the development of a machine tool industry in the USSR. Is the USSR now
self sufficient in machine tools? In other words will existing stocks of
machine tools ast until th ce`caan be replaced by internal the rate of e-goansion in the entire economy so great that otthetUSSR must
acquire as many tools as ,possible from any source? that limitation on the
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expansion of the Soviet economy is created by the capacity of Soviet
machine tool production and the amount of foreign exchange available with
which to buy imported tools? The answers to these questions will affect
the US plans for economic warfare as well as our over-all mobilization
planning.
Approved For Release 2000/09/03 : CIIj I-00022ROO0200070003-3