NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00296R000200010055-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 20, 2011
• Sequence Number: 55
• Publication Date: March 21, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of 7o'_ Secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
21 March 1981
Top Secret
CO N i l )
21 March
229
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Contents
Poland: Political Tension High . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Colombia: Setback for Guerrillas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Pakistan: Domestic Impact of the Recent Hijacking . . . . 4
Japan-China-USSR: Reaction to Brezhnev's Proposal . . . . 5
Zimbabwe: Aid Donors Conference . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
25X6
Mexico: New Leader for Governing Party . . . . . . . . . . 7
Canada: Election in Ontario Benefits Trudeau . . . . . . . 8
South Korea: Student Protest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Central African Republic: Postelection Violence . . . . . 9
Top Secret 25X1
21 March 1981
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Top Secret
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POLAND: Political Tension High
The clash between police and Solidarity followers in
Bydgoszcz has raised political tension to its highest level since
last November. 25X1
Union leaders endorsed a few two-hour warning strikes
yesterday but have deferred any larger strike actions
until some time next week. Solidarity chief Walesa and
other leaders apparently believe the incident was a
provocation staged by hardliners in the government intent
on undermining Prime Minister Jaruzelski. 25X1
There evidently is considerable sentiment in union
ranks favoring a general strike. Walesa argued yesterday
against such an action, warning that the situation is
"very precarious," but he may have difficulty reining in
union militants. F -1 25X1
Should a nationwide general strike take place, the
government would come under great pressure from conserva-
tives and Moscow to declare martial law. In the current
atmosphere, such an action could lead to a total breakdown
of civil order. If this were to occur, Moscow would 25X1
almost certainly intervene militarily.
The government faces strong demands from the public
to repudiate the actions of the police during the clash.
Youth, media, and party groups in the Bydgoszcz area have
expressed their opposition to the use of force. 25X1
The government has opened an investigation, and a
preliminary report was made public this morning. It
admitted that the beatings had occurred, but added that
the commission had not established the causes of the
beatings. The regime called on Solidarity to participate
in the investigation. 25X1
Jaruzelski issued a statement yesterday in which he
said talks are "particularly necessary" in the present
circumstances. This was a response to Solidarity's de-
cision to suspend talks with the government and may also
have been an implicit rejection of the police actions.
While eager to avoid charges of a whitewash, the regime
does not want to heap abuse on the police. To do so
would give more ammunition to the hardliners and would 25X1
undermine police effectiveness. E
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Top Secret
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21 March 1981
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Military district
boundary
Baltic
Military
District
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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Aruba
(Neth.)
Approximate
boat landing
area
Esprielb
Patestbt
*BOGOTA
Venezuela
as Rio G
a
; 4ocoa
Approximate
area of guerrilla
Z clash s
Peru
Rio Araura!
Brazil
Boundary representation Is
not necessarily authoritative.
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The Army has scored a major success against the M-19 guerrillas
that may have a significant impact on the group's plans for increased
violence. 25X1
Over the past several weeks, the Army has captured
or killed 50 or more M-19 members, including at least
some of the group's high command. Most of the guerrillas
apparently landed on the southwestern coast in February
or early March and subsequently mounted attacks on several
towns in the region. The Army intercepted a large arms
shipment--including rifles, machineguns, mortars, grenades,
and bazookas--in the same area this month. 25X1
The M-19 has been largely an urban organization
since its inception in the early 1970s, and the move to
rural areas apparently was just beginning. The Army's
operation seems likely to cripple that effort and, as
the investigation continues, new leads also could help
disrupt some of M-19's urban operations.
If Havana's support is as extensive as preliminary
reports indicate, it would represent a new high in Cuban
involvement in South America. Nonetheless, it would be
consistent with Cuba's recent efforts to raise the level
of its aid to revolutionaries throughout the hemisphere.
This would heighten the Colombian Government's already
strong concern about Cuban activities and might increase
Bogota's willingness to increase its support to other
threatened countries. 25X1
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The hijackers' Links with the Late Prime Minister Bhutto's
Pakistan People's Party have temporarily set back efforts by
PAKISTAN: Domestic Impact of the Recent Hijacking
President Zia's political foes to end military rule.
Attempts by Moscow and Kabul to use the incident
against Islamabad and evidence of Afghan collusion with
the terrorists have persuaded most Pakistanis that
domestic conflict would only benefit the Soviets. This
has put the multiparty Movement for the Restoration of
Democracy on the defensive and undermined its campaign
for elections, according to a leader of the opposition
coalition. In addition, the role played by Bhutto's sons
in the hijacking has reinforced misgivings among moderates
about cooperation with the People's Party, the strongest
element in the opposition.
Zia is capitalizing on the national sense of outrage
by moving against the People's Party, apparently hoping
to break it up and permanently discredit the Bhutto
family. He has publicly suggested the party is part of
an international conspiracy to turn Pakistan into a Soviet
The President's attack on the People's Party could
backfire if Nusrat Bhutto and her daughter--both of whom
are in jail--appear to become victims or if the evidence
against them seems weak. Moreover, the incident has not
removed the root causes of discontent, and new challenges
to Zia's rule--including other terrorist incidents--
probably will occur. One lesson terrorists may draw from
the hijacking is that Zia is more likely to give in when
foreigners, particularly Americans, are among the targets.
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JAPAN-CHINA-USSR: Reaction to Brezhnev's Proposal
Japan and China are showing no interest in President Brezhnev's
recent proposal to negotiate confidence-building measures for the 25X1
Far Eases
The USSR has made demarches to Japan, China, North
Korea, and the US on the proposal but has provided few
details. Moscow apparently is suggesting that prior
notification of large ground manuevers be given and that
observers be allowed at such exercises, as is done in 25X1
The USSR also may be thinking of including air and
naval manuevers. Soviet diplomats have said, however,
that Moscow's proposal does not include Soviet forces
in Mongolia, an exception clearly aimed at leaving
unchanged Moscow's strategic position opposite China.
Japanese Foreign Minister Ito, in responding to
Soviet Ambassador Polyanski's request on 15 March that
Japan negotiate the measures, complained that Soviet
actions in East Asia have increased tension. Ito said
Tokyo would study Polyanski's demarche and respond for-
mally at a later date, but he made clear that Japan lacks
interest in the proposal. 25X1
The Soviets made a similar approach to Beijing on
7 March, suggesting consultative meetings that would lead
to a multilateral conference, presumably to include the
US. The Chinese believe the Soviets have intensified
their military buildup in the Far East, and they have
termed Brezhnev's proposal "hypocritical propaganda" and
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ZIMBABWE: Aid Donors Conference
Prime Minister Mugabe's government will host a crucial con-
ference of prospective aid donors beginning on Monday.
Mugabe is seeking $1.8 billion in assistance over
the next three years. Economic experts consider this
period vital to developing Zimbabwe's ability to achieve
self-sustained growth.
Salisbury claims it has thus far received aid of
only $83 million out of the $315 million pledged. An
unofficial British compilation, however, shows more than
$1 billion already pledged or virtually certain to be
pledged for the next four years. The funds come mainly
from the World Bank, the European Development Fund, the
US, UK, West Germany, Sweden, Canada, and China. Much
of this aid is tied to the purchase of goods, however,
and will not be available to fund Mugabe's various social
programs. 25X1
With the additional pledges expected at the confer-
ence, the total will approach the $1.5 billion figure
associated with the multidonor, multiyear Kissinger plan
of 1976 and subsequent Anglo-American settlement initia-
tives used by the Zimbabweans as the basis for their
expectations.
A successful conference will make it easier for
Mugabe to pursue his moderate, pragmatic policies. It
also will reassure the economically vital white minority, 25X1
whose confidence in Zimbabwe's long-term stability prob-
ably was shaken by the recent violence in Bulawayo.
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Boundary representation is
met necessarily hortative,
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MEXICO: New Leader for Governing Party
The change on Thursday in the leadership of the
governing Institutional Revolutionary Party probably
was aimed primarily at preparing for the presidential
and congressional elections next year. The new party
leader, Agrarian Reform Secretary Garcia Paniagua, is a
prominent anti-Communist who was formerly in charge of
intelligence and security matters in the Interior Ministry. 25X6
predecessor has played an active role in Mexico's
Central America policy and has headed the party's work
with left-of-center parties in Latin America. While the
change may result in a softening of the party's rhetoric
on Central America and in less contact with the Salvadoran
left, it is unlikely to produce a basic shift in policy 25X1
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Ontario Premier Davis's reelection in the provincial
election on Thursday makes him an even more powerful
factor in national political maneuvering. His solid win
assures the continuity of Ontario's vital support for
Prime Minister Trudeau's bid to reform the constitution
and centralize decisionmaking power over energy programs.
There are indications Davis will now feel secure in sup-
porting the move to somewhat higher energy prices that
Trudeau will need to offer in order to break the current
impasse on energy policy between Ottawa and the chief
energy-producing province of Alberta. The federal gov-
ernment and Alberta will begin negotiations next month.
The government's handling of the first student
demonstration of the spring term appears designed to
discourage future antigovernment activity and to win
votes for the progovernment party in the National
Assembly elections next Wednesday. When police moved on
a group of about 200 students at Seoul National Univer-
sity last Thursday, their tactics were harsher than those
used against similar demonstrations during the fall of
1980. Moreover, unlike earlier incidents, the incident
received extensive coverage in the press and on tele-
vision.
The government is concerned
about its showing in the election and hopes to swing pop-
ular support behind its candidates, many of whom are
running on a "social stability" platform.
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and Central African civilians and probably would allow
The government of President Dacko, who was reelected
by a narrow margin last Sunday, has contained the dis-
turbances in Bangui yesterday. The unrest was started by
accusations from the opposition of election fraud involving
the French. Although the allegations appear to have some
validity, the runner-up candidate, left-leaning Ange
Patasse, has appealed for calm in an effort to prevent
bloodshed. The French probably have sufficient military
forces to check any additional disorders. With the presi-
dential election approaching in France, however, President
Giscard is anxious to avoid clashes between French troops
French units to be used only as a last resort.
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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