COPING WITH DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY SURPRISE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R002700100011-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 22, 2007
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: February 8, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/03/03: CIA-RDP83M00914R002700100011-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Notional Intelligence Council
DDI #1099-82
8 February 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT Coping with Diplomatic and Military Surprise
1. The attached memorandum has some interesting perspectives
on coping with diplomatic surprises and sudden military initiatives.
Although most of the points are oriented toward a specific warning
function the paper is relevant to the duties of most analysts deal-
ing with political and military problems.
2. The author also does some contingent forecasting by .
describing six situations where circumstances are converging in
away that creates a potential for shock diplomacy or sudden military
initiatives.
-- Israel - Egypt
-- China - US - Taiwan
-- West Germany - NATO Missiles
-- South Africa - Namibia - Angola
-- Poland
-- Iran - Iraq
All Portions of this Memorandum
are Classified SECRET
roved For Release 2007/03/03: CIA-RDP83M00914R00270010U011-4
 1-NIO/W
1 - NIO/W Chrono
1 - DDI Registry
Approved For Release 2007/03/03: CIA-RDP83M00914R002700100011-4
DDI #1099-82
SUBJECT: Coping with Diplomatic and Military Surprise 8 February 1982
1 - C/NIC V
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SECRET
roved For Release 2007/03/03: CIA-RDP83M00914R002700100011-4