LETTER TO THE HONORABLE WILLIAM P. CLARK FROM WILLIAM J. CASEY RE: PROPOSAL OF DR. ROBERT BYRNES AS A REPLACEMENT TO SUCCEED DICK PIPES AS THE SOVIET EXPERT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R002300050001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 20, 1982
• Content Type: LETTER

~._pprovecl-For F,Fs 20~
LUNCHEON DATE: Monday, 20 December 1282
HOST: DCI XX DDCI Executive Director
GUEST LIST: Mr. Casey
....Mr. William Prince
Mr. David Abshire
Dr. Amos Jordan
Dr. Robert Byrnes
Ms. Aileen Masterson
C A7REP&W00914ROG2300050001.-5-
Mr. Robert Gates
Mr. Stanley Moskowitz
Tomato Juice
Filet of Sole with Lemon/Butter Sauce
Peas with Mushrooms
Tossed Salad with Choice of Dressing
White Wine with Meal
Coffee
Apple Pie with Vanilla Ice Cream
SEATING ARRANGEMENT:
.S TAT
STA.T
 Approved For Release 200610 RDP83M00914R002300050001-5
The Director of Central Intelligence
Wishin&ton. D. C 20505
20 December 1982
The Honorable William P. Clark
Assistant to the President for
National Security Affairs
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Bill,
I have an idea which strikes me as a good one and one which may appeal
to you. It is that you consider Dr. Robert Byrnes of Indiana University
as a candidate to succeed Dick Pipes as the Soviet expert on your staff.
I don't know whether Byrnes would be interested, but I'm quite sure that
his qualifications, orientation and preparation for such a task are out-
standing.
I had him out to lunch today along with Dave Abshire to be briefed on
the Soviet project on which some 30-odd of the outstanding Soviet scholars
in the world have been working over the last 18 months under Dr. Byrnes'
direction. It seems like an outstanding piece of work, almost certainly
by far the finest private sector estimate on the Soviet Union.and where it
stands for at least a decade. I judge this on the quality. of the participants
and a description I received today on the conclusions to which it arrives,
as well as the depth and the range of aspects of Soviet life which have been
treated. .
I suggest that you peruse the attached sheets which summarize the project
and list the names and affiliations of those responsible for this work.
SECRET
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The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University/ 1800 K Street Northwest /Washington DC 20006 / Telephone [phone]
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX 7108229583
THE SOVIET UNION IN THE 1980s: PROJECT SUMMARY
Background
The Georgetown Center for Strategic and. International;
Studies is-conducting a major examination of the significant
trends and developments within the Soviet Union that will shape
Soviet foreign policy over the next decade. The Soviet Union is
facing critical choices in the political, economic, military, demo-
graphic, technological and social spheres, all of which will affect
its behavior in the international arena.- Of these many factors,
seven broad areas stand out as particularly important.
Key Issues
1. The Political Succession
At the recent 26th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party,
no major changes were made in the Soviet leadership. This develop-
ment suggests that when the succession occurs, it will be dramatic.
What will be the effects on Soviet foreign policy? Will the so-called
generational change in leaders make a dramatic impact?
2. ..Economic Developments: The Military, Industry Agricultureand_-Fnergy
The basic problems of the.Soviet economy are fairly well known:
a decline in overall growth rates, in productivity, in investment, and
in the working age population; a lagging agricultural sector; and a large
share of resources dedicated to national defense. What are the policy
alternatives for the Soviet Union? Can it have bcth guns and butter?
If not, what are the implications of the Soviet choice? What will and/
'or should be the role of external economic relations? Can or will the
Soviet Union continue to pursue an economic strategy that gives a high
priority to external credits, trade, technology? How will the Soviet
Union's agricultural performance- affect its foreign policy behavior
and goals?
Although there are differing assessments about the severity
of the Soviet Union's energy problem, energy policy is also a clear
priority in Moscow. How dependent on imported oil is the'Soviet
 Approved For Release 2006X19111 : CIA-RDP83M00914R002300050001-5
Union likely to become? What will be the impact of developments in
the. energy sphere on Soviet policy?_
3. Demographic Trends and Social Tensions
The balance of the Soviet population is so changing that
ethnic Russians will soon be a minority. Nevertheless, they remain
in the majority of the key decision making roles in the Soviet hier-
archy. How will the Soviet Union adapt to its changing demographic
character? To what extent will the non-Russian and non-European
elements of the Soviet population play a greater role in Soviet policy-
making? - What are the prospects for minority unrest in the Soviet
Union? What. will be the likely impact on Soviet economic and mili-
tary structures, and what tradeoffs between them are probable, in
light of the much smaller age groups which will be joining the labor
pool? How will Soviet leaders meet rising consumer demands and dis-
satisfaction?
4. Developments in Eastern Europe
Unlike earlier crises in Eastern Europe, the current crisis
in Poland does not stem from 'a disloyal or "misguided" Communist
leadership, but a weak leadership confronting social unrest. To
what extent does this crisis reflect a more general systemic crisis
that could be repeated elsewhere-in Eastern Europe? To what extent
is it a harbinger of development in the, Soviet Union itself?
5. The Military
Unlike the political leadership, the military has largely'
experienced its succession already, although little is known about
these new leaders. What are their goals, tactics and strategies?
How do they view relations with the West?.What level of technological
skill does their weaponry indicate, and how does such weaponry com-
pare with its Western counterparts in numbers and quality?
6. Intellectual and Cultural Life
Soviet society is undergoing.considerable changes that bear
on future policy problems. How will the growth of modern communications
technology necessary for development affect the Soviet leadership's
imperative of a closed society? What are the effects of external
contacts, with both the West and the Third World? Will the status
of Marxism-Leninism change? What is the state of art, religion,
and intellectual life in the Soviet Union today?
7. External dynamics
Just as-in the United.States, the distinction between domestic
politics and foreign policy in the Soviet Union is increasingly
difficult to draw. External factors will interact with the above
mentioned internal elements to shape Soviet policy creating dilemmas
for the Soviet leadership. Among the external sources influencing
Soviet policy are perceptions - (and facts) of the future balance
of power, 'especially with the United States,-questions of political
and military opportunity, relations with the People's Republic of
China, developments in Western Eurooe and the evolution of NATO,
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military developments, technological change, and arms control con-
siderations. How are these external factors likely to influence
Soviet policy in light of domestic developments?
Methodology
This 18-month program will be built around in-house and com-
missioned research from the top experts. in the Soviet field, seminars
and briefings for the executive and legislative branches of govern-
ment, a major international conference, and a series of publications
designed to reach the widest possible audience.
In addition to the Project Director, Dr. Robert By=es,-,and
a Steering Committee of CSIS.expects and advisors,.the Center has
commissioned a number of authorities in the'Soviet field to cover
the various facets of the project. Each broad area outlined above
will be covered in depth by a working group of three or four scholars
under the leadership of a group chairman. The chairmen, all of whom
lrepresent the most substantive and up-to-date scholarship in their
respective specializations, are responsible for delineating the
boundaries of their research, choosingtheir'group members, and writing
a definitive monograph based on their findings. Group'members will
stimulate discussion and write commentaries and critiques of-the
chairmen's papers.
Communications
CSIS will communicate the findings of its study to the widest
possible audience, not only in.government but in the business and'
and academic communities as well. The Center will use a variety
of publication vehicles, including articles in the Washington Quarterly,
pieces in the nation's leading newspapers.and a special series of mono-
graphs produced by the chairmen and the working groups. The culmination
of the project will be a major volume drawing chapters from each working
group into a cohesive entity under the editorship of the Project Director-
 Approved For Release 2006105/'11 : CIA-RDP83M00914R002300050001-5
In addition, the Center will sponsor Congressional meetings,
CSIS roundtable discussions in various cities, special corporate
briefings, and a variety of other forums for participants to share
their findings.
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The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University/ 1800 KStreet Northwest/ Washington DC 20006/Telephone[phone]
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX: 7108229583
FACTORS. AFFECTING SOVIE FOREIGN POLICY
IN THE1980s
DIRECTION AND ADMINISTRATION
Dr. Robert Byrnes, DIRECTOR 402 Reisner Drive
Department of History Bloomington, Indiana 47401
Ballantine Hall (812) 336-5275
Indiana University
Bloomington, Indiana 47405
(812) 335-5484
Aileen Masterson, COORDINATOR
CSIS 1010 Papermill Court
1.800 K Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20007
Washington, D.C. 20006 (.202) 337-3745
(202) 775-3257
(202) 887-0200
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The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University/ 1800 K Street Northwest/ Washington DC 20006/Telephone[phone]
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX: 7108229583
THE ECONOMY
Robert Campbell, CHAIRMAN
Indiana University 919 E. Hunter
Department of Economics Bloomington, IN
Bloomington, IN 47401 (812). 332-3639
(812) 335-7808
Morris Bornstein
University of Michigan -2432 Londonderry.Rd.
Department of Economics Ann Arbor, MI 48104
Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (313) 663-1762
(313) 763-4153
John Hardt
Congressional Research Service
Library of Congress
LM 203 JMMB
Washington, D.C. 20540
(202) 287-8888
Gale Johnson
Chicago, IL 60637
(312) 753-4532
Thomas Wolf -
Ohio State University
2188 Tremont Road
Department of Economics
Columbus, OH 43211
Columbus, OH 43210
?.(614) 486-7553
8028 Cindy: _Lane
Bethesda, MD 20034
(301) 469-7345
University
of
Chicago
5617 Kinwood
Department
of
Economics
Chicago, IL 60637
1126-East
University
59th
of
Street
Chicago
(312) 493-4015
(614) 422-6701
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The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University/ 1800 K Street Northwest/ Washington DC 20006/Telephone [phone]
THE SYSTEM
Seweryn Bialer, CHAIRMAN
Research Institute on
International. Change
Columbia University
420 W. 118th St.
New York, NY. 10017
(212), 280-4639
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX: 7108229583
400 W. 119th Street
Butler Hall Building
New York, NY 10027
(212). 866-3291
George Breslauer
University of Cali=ornia-Berkeley 1015 Colusa_
Dept. of Political Science Berkeley, CA 94707
210 Barrows Hall (415) 527-7615
Berkeley, CA 94720.
(415) 642-4655
Thane Gustafson
Rand Corporation
1700 Main Street .. 11969 Woodbine
Santa Monica, CA 90406 ._Los Angeles, CA 90066
(213) 393-0411 (213) 390-9275
Myron Rush
Cornell University 6808 Melrose Drive
Dept. of Government McLean, VA 22101
Ithaca, NY.14850 (703) 893-9716
 Approved For Release`2006/09/11`CIA-R DP83M00914R002300050001-5
The Center for`Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University / 1800 K Street Northwest / Washington DC 20006 /Telephone 202 / 887-0200
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX: 7108229583
MILITARY FORCES
Coit Blacker, CHAIRMAN
CSIS
1800 K Street, N.W:
Washington, D.C. 20006
(202). 8.87?-0200
Washington, D.C. 20006
(202) 861-0861
Fritz E..rmarth.
Northrop Corporation- 6904 St---a Street
1015 18th Street, N.W. McLean, `7=- 22101
Arnold Horelick
Rand Corporation
1700 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90406
2950 Van Ness, N.W.
-80=
Was= incton, D.C. 20008
(202) 362-3240
(703)
821-1862
11625
Texas Avenue
Unit
301
West
LA, CA 90024
[phone] (22-3) 479-2876
David Holloway*
Cornell University
Peace Studies
Ithaca, NY 14850
(607)'256-6484
Lt. General Brent Scowcrof-t (Ret.)
International Six, Inc.
Suite 440
International Square
1875 I Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20006
(202) 861--0006
316 Eastwood Avenue
NY 11-850
(607) 272-1670.
6114 :Road
Be esda, '?ND 20316
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 'Approved For Release 2006/09/11: CIA-RDP83M00914R002300050001-5
The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University/ 1800 K Street Northwest/ Washington DC 20006/Telephone [phone]
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX_ 7108229583
DEMOGRAPHIC _AND SOC_A_" FACTORS
Gail Lapidus, CHATR`-L.N
University of California-Berk__-_ 133_ Queens Road
Center for Slavic and East Berkeley, C__ 94708
European Studies (415) 841-7156
Berkeley, CA 94702
(415) 642-3290
Walter Connor 1105 N. Rcckingha-i St.
Foreign Service Insti tu'te Arl_ngton, VA 22205
Director, Soviet Studies (703) 534-2056
1400 Key Blvd. _--
-Arlington, VA 22209
(703) 235-8841
Murray Feshbach
Georgetown University 11403 Fair Oak Drive
Department of Demographics Silver Spring, MD 20902
37th & 0 Streets,,N.W. 5301) 593-1448
Washington, _D. C, ._200.57__ _____
(202) 625-4333
Gregory Massell
City University of New York 511 East 20th Street
Hunter College, CUN'_' Apt 8'ri
659 Park Avenue New York, MY 10010
New York, NY 10027 (212) 475-2158
(212) 570-3570
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The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University/ 1800 K Street Northwest/ Washington DC20006/Telephone [phone]
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX: 7108229583
INTELLECTUAL AND CULTURAL FACTORS'.
Maurice Friedberg, CHAIRMAN
University of,Illinois at Urban Champaign
Dept. of Slavic Language
and Literature
707 S. Matthews, Room 3092
Urbana-Champaign _
Urbana, IL 61801
(217) 333-0681
3001 Meadowbrook
Champaign, IL 61820
(217) 359-0703
John B. Dunlop
Oberlin College .291 Elm Street
Dept. of German and Russian Oberlin, OH 44074
Oberlin, OH 44074 - (216) 774-3332
(216) 775-8651
Leo Labedz
SURVEY
Ilford House
133-135 Oxford Street,
London, ENGLAND
(01) 734-0592
Sidney Monas
University of'Texas
Slavic Department
Austin, TX 78703
(512) 471-3607
30 Western Road
London N 29 HY ENGLAND
(01) 883-9239
2200 Trail of Madrones
Austin, TX 78746
(512) 327-3305
 Approved For Release 2006/09/11: CIA-RDP83M00914R002300050001-5
The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University/ 1800 K Street Northwest/ Washington DC 20006 / Telephone [phone]
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX: 7108229583
Andrzej Korbonski, CHAIRMAN
University of California-Los Angeles .718 Radcliffe Avenue
Dept of Political Science Pacific Palisades, CA
Los Angeles, CA 90024 90272
(213) 825-3784 direct (213) 459-2230
.(213) 825-4331
Charles Gati
Union College 39. Claremont Avenue
Dept. of Political Science New York, NY 10027
.Social Sciences Building (212) 864-8291
Schenectady, NY 12308
(212) 280-4681
Sarah Terry
Tufts University
Dept. of Political Science
Medford, MA 02155
(617) 628-5000 ext 275
396 Marsh Street
.Belmont, MA 02178
(617) 489-2817
Jiri Valenta
Council on Foreign Relations' 400 West 119th-Street
The Harold Pratt House New York, NY 10027
58 East 68.th Street (212) 865-5150
New York, NY 10021
(212)-734-0400
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The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University/ 1800 K Street Northwest/Washington DC20006/Telephone [phone]
OUTSIDE WORLD
Cable Address: CENSTRAT
TWX: 7108229583
Adam Ulam, CHAIRMAN
Harvard University
Russian Research Center
Archibald Cary Coolidge Hall
1737 Cambridge Street 17 Lowell. Street
Cambridge, MA 02138 Cambridge, MA 02138
(617) 495-4037 (617) 864-4178
(617) 495-4035
David Albright
National Security Affairs Dept.
Air War College 409 Thorn Place
Maxwell Air Force Base, AL 36112 Montgomery, AL 36106
(205) 293-2386 (205) 265-1911
Raymond Baker
Williams College-
Dept. of Political Science 63 North Street
Williamstown, MA 02167 Williamstown, MA 02167
(413) 597-2162 (413)-458-9508
Gerrit Gong
CSIS
1800 K Street, N.W. 7719 Fisher Drive
Washington, D.C. 20006 Falls Church, VA 22043
(202). 775-3255 (703) 893-9624
Abraham Lowenthal.
Wilson Center
Latin American Program 4620 North Park Avenue
Smithsonian Institution Bldg. Apartment 602W -
Washington, D.C. 20560 Chevy Chase, MD 20015
(.202) 357-1446 (301) 652-5887
Angela Stent
CSIS
1800 K Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. .20006
(202) 887-0200
2500 Q Street, N.W.
Apartment 427
Washington, D.C. 20007
(202) 333-2140
Rebecca Strode
National Institute for
Public Policy Suite 301
6870 Elm Street 28 Hudson View Drive
McLean, VA 22101 Beacon, NY 12504
(703) 442 _4820. ____ __ .. (914) 831-7426
 Approved For 06/09111 :CIA-RDP83M00914R002300050001-5
en, J,
n Da^taer
,., i.,,d O;t.ncr
.' F.i .."re t)lgtvCTORS
SF.N iC)f: ".LSLARCH AND
A0%1JN:STRATIVE STAFF
iJti Ale cancer
F Byrnas
~.,rr Carlson
Carver. Jr.
Cntl 'Y. CS J.
Hobert Duwnen
Cnales K. Ebmger
Georges Faunol
Mazher Hameed
Penelope H a:tland?hunberg
Robert E. Hunter
Romney W. Jones
Helen Kitchen
Robert Leiken
Ecward N. Luttwak
Francis X. Murray
Kenneth A. Myers
William Petry
Paul Craig Roberts
Barry Rubin
Thibaut de Saint Phalle
Nicholas J. Sprliotes
John A. Shaw
William J. Taylor
W Scott Thompson
Allen Weinstein
Wayne Berman
Patricia Denny
Pamela Scholl MahaIlee
Michael Moodie
Jean C. Newsom
Ettd S. Pollock
Lea Rogers
Sterling G. Slappey
M Jon Vondracek
David A. Wendt
John Yochelson
ADVISORY BOARD
Anne Armstrong
Chairman
Sen. Sam Nunn
Frederick Seitz
Cochairmen
Theodore A. Bums
Leonard H. Marks
Ralph A. Pfeiffer, Jr.
Vice Chairmen
Richard V. Allen
Sen Lloyd Bentsen
Rep. Don Banker
Emile Boursier
Reo Clarence Brown
W Glenn Campbell
Rep Richard Cheney
Leo Creme
Lester Crown
Carlo De Benedetti
Sen. Robert Dole
Henry Dudley
Oscar Dystel
Rep Dante B. Fascell
Rep Millicent Fenwick
Sen. Jake Gain
Sen. John Glenn
Sen. Barry Goldwater
Armand Hammer
Sylvia Hassenfeld
Ichiro Hattori
Eric Hotung
Sen. J. Bennett Johnston, Jr.
Donald M. Kendall
Donald Kerr
Witham F. Kieschnick
Lane Kirkland
Joseph Kraft
Paul Laxall
J3, as E. Lee
Waiter J. Levy
John C. Marous
Sen. James A McClure
Warren Meeker
Thomas H. Moorer
Robert Mosbacher
Martha T. Muse
Aroert G. Neumann
Eddy Nicholson
Most Per. John J. O'Connor, D.D.
Suliman Olayan
Sen Claiborne Pell
Rep John J. Rhodes
J Hugh Rofl, Jr.
Arthur Ross
Sen W,i Lam V. Roth, Jr.
Michael A. Samuels
Rep James D. Santini
George T Scharllenberger
Sleonan Schmidheiny
Sen Harrison Schmitt
Brent Scowcrolt
Harvey L. Silbert
Joseph Sisco
Howard K Smith
WviOr rr French Smith
Frank Stanton
Rep Samuel Stratton
Rober, S. Strauss
Ya3ue, Takeyama
William Timmons
Sen John Tower
S'icich,ro Toyoda
Jean,Lbuis an den Branden
George Will
Vin cent A Wolhngton
R James Woolsey
Rep. Clement J. Zablock,
Gordon B. Zacks
Har"et M. Zimmerman
The Center for Strategic and International Studies
Georgetown University/ 1800 K Street "Was hing ion DC 20006/Telephone [phone]
Robert J. Hen!e, S.J., Counselor Z:), gc.ew Brzezinsk: Senior Ai;, ue ;a/ S C ire. Sen.._ As;ocrat,e TAX: 7108229583
:a_-.11 Bridges. Senior Associate
Robert G Neumann Senior Associate
EXECUTIVE BOARD: Leonard H. Marks, Chas: man / Anne Armstrong. Vice C 'a rma.n Dad `3. Aoshire / T. Byron Collins. SJ / Leo Cherne/ Peer F Krogh/ Morris 1. Leibman/
Nathaniel Samuel; i Ri,_hari Schwartz / Frederick Se,:: ; Rona'c L Smith
November 9, 1982
Mr. Stanley Moskowitz
NIO for USSR.
Room 7 E 62
CIA Headquarters
Washington, D.C. 20505
In-connection with the December 20 luncheon which has
been scheduled for Mr. Casey, Dr. Abshire, and
Mr. Wood Prince, I am enclosing a brief summary of
the CSIS Soviet Project, a list of participants, and
a Who's Who excerpt on Mr. Wood Prince. If you need
any additional information or material, please let
me know.
We understand that the Director will be available
from 12 to 1 on the 20th. We shall appreciate your
forwarding information on where the gentlemen are
to meet, and whether passes must be obtained, as well
as the procedure.
For your information, Dr. Abshire will be accompanied
by Dr. Robert Byrnes, the Director of the Soviet Pro-
ject, and Aileen Masterson, the Coordinator.
Sincerely yours,
Lee Agree
Project Assistant
OVERSEAS REPRESENTATIVES: Joyce R Starr / Kenichi Ito / Joseph Godson
RESEARCH COUNCIL: Walter Laqueur, Chairman / H Boutros'Ghah / Melvin C.-an/ Stephen Gibed/ Ernst Halperin! Pierre Hassneri Robert J. Herle, SJ / David Hubbard /
Charles is sawi / J. Clayhurn La Force / Bernard Lewis I Richard Lowenthal / Laurence W Martin/ Klaus Mehnert/ Robert Osgood f Paul Seabury/ Frederick Seitz J Gaston J. Sigur /
Henri Simonet / Robert E. Ward / Albert Wohis!etter 1 Aharon Vans
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 Approved For Release 2006/09/11: CIA-RDP83M00914R002300050001-5
Luncheon with Mr. Casey, Monday, 20 December, 1200
Attendees:
Dr. David M. Abshire Dr. Amos A. Jordan, Jr.
Dr. Robert Byrnes
Ms. Aileen Masterson
Mr. William Wood Prince, guest of honor
Mr. Stanley M.,Moskowitz
STAT