PROPOSAL FOR A SYSTEM FOR DETERMINING HUMINT COLLECTION CAPABILITIES RESPONSIVE TO SPECIFIC INTELLIGENCE NEEDS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R002000070003-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: January 1, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

,, Approved For Release 2006/9@TCIA-R DP83M00914R002000070003-4
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH: Director, Intelligence Community Staff
a
Chairman, Human Resources Committee
SUBJECT: Proposal for a System for Determining HUMINT Collection
Capabilities Responsive to Specific Intelligence Needs
1. Action Requested. None. For your information.
2. Background. On 24 March 1982, you ask`that I develop a system
for determining the HUMMIi4T collection capabilities which are available
to respond to specific intelligence needs. Attached-is a concept paper
for the accomplishment of this objective.
In our discussion you expressed an interest in determining the
specific sources which would constitute that capability. Many of these
can be explicitly done for you but there are certain kinds of sources
which for reasons of source sensitivity would not be included. Thus
with the cooperation _of collectors, especially the DDO, we can advise
you concerning overall capabilities including those which are sensitive
but we cannot identify the sensitive sources via the procedure proposed
in the attachment. It will remain necessary for that data to be
provided directly to you by the collectors having the capability.
3. Staffing. None.
4. Recommendation. None.
Attachment:
As stated
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2006/09/06: CIA-RDP83M00914R002000070003-4
SUBJECT: Proposal for a System for Determining HUMINT Collection
Capabilities Responsive to Specific Intelligence Needs
1. Purpose.
To provide, at the DCI's request, succinct, timely statements
of HUMINT collection capabilities--both overt (including open-source)
and clandestine--to respond to national intelligence needs.
II. General Concept.
To develop a system which could provide a meaningful response
to a DCI query concerning HUMINT collection capability to 'respond to
a particular intelligence Ll-ut which would protect sensitive
sources and methods. The following data are necessary to undertake
this effort:
o National HUMINT 6ollection objectives (as determined by
policymakers and analysts) and amplifying requirements
pertinent to the specific request.
o HUMINT collection entities which have indicated that
they have capabilities to respond.
o Recent past reporting pertinent to the intelligence need
including the type of collection asset involved.
 Approved For Release 2006/09/06: CIA-RDP83M00914R002000070003-4
o Assessment data derived from evaluation of past collection
efforts.
o Special reporting and source data involving highly sensitive
Considerable dataj(not involving sensitive sources and methods
are currently available to provide the basis for reaching judgments
on collection capability. Some of the data, currently available only
manually, can be placed in a small separate computer program. This
together with data already on computers, will provide an easily
accessible analytical base for capabilities judgments. No computer
system would provide trustworthy judgments without analysis by competent
professionals. Furthermore, a decision to place all pertinent data into
one specific program would require massive and unnecessary replication
Cnd would violate necessary compartmentation safeguard
In our judgment it would be a mistake to develop a general
system for quantifying the above data or make general use of statis-
tical probability methods to delineate capability, e.g., "60 percent
chance that the intelligence need can be met in 30 days." We believe
the likely queries would be quite broad in nature and involve
continuing collection issues. We have developed an example,
0
, which is, we believe, a
likely type of inquiry (obviously, a narrow, finite query, e.g.,
"what is the capability to determine the length of the runway at...
could theoretically be answered in explicit terms).
SECRET
 SECRET
Approved For Release 2006 09106: CIA-RDP83M00914R002000070003-4
III. Input/Data Base.
The information necessary to accomplish this evaluation would
come from the following sources:
o DCI guidance in the form of HUMINT collection objectives
with amplification from the requirements systems maintained
by various Community elements. These data are currently
available manually but could easily be placed on a
Community computer. The computer program currently
exists.
o Information on collection entities that have indicated
capability by accepting primary or secondary collection
responsibility. Also available manually but easily
adaptable to computer. The computer program currently
exists.
o Significant reporting (except highly sensitive reports)
available on two CIA systems, COLTS and RECON, supplemented
by computer data files currently operational in DoD and
State.
o Generic source data, e.g., emigres. Derivable from past
reporting.
3
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2006/6&fGKTCIA-R DP83M00914R002000070003-4
o Capability data from assessments and FOCUS studies
conducted by the Chairman, Human Resources Committee.
Other evaluation data are available from State, CIA/DO/
EPDS and DIA. These resource will become more effective
as more HUMINT assessment data is acquired. They can
easily be adapted for input into a Community computerfio
the extent security permits
o Certain types of sensitive reporting and source are not
available from the foregoing resources and would/quire
special handlin CIA/DO blue-line reports and State i;ODIS
messages are examples.)or such reporting, special
compartmentation procedures satisfactory to collectors
would be necessary. Alternatively, or in specially sensitive
cases, collectors wuld respond directly and exclusively to
the DDCI/DCI~
Analysis by a knowledgeable professional will be necessary.
Reasonable deadlines are necessary for trustworthy results. The
most practical system calls for correlated use of a Community computer,
COLTS, RECON (ultimately SAFE), collector ADP. capability, and profes-
sional analysis of the total data package kith separate input where
required for sensitive material t. Computerized data would be textual.
Inputting would be a continuing process with the base becoming more
meaningful over time.
4
SECRET
 This system can be developed and maintained without a substantial
additional resource requirement. A capability statement can now be
prepared in three working days. If additional data were automated
the statement could be prepared in two days. That response time can
be further reduced and the value and completeness of that statement
improved with additional assessment data in the system and as
related systems, especially SAFE, reach maturity.
5
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/
IV. Output/Product.
ORE1CIA-R DP83M00914R002000070003-4
By analyzing the foregoing data a qualified analyst can provide
the DCI with a succinct statement indicating the collection objectives
and requirements which exist pertinent to the cited intelligence
need, collection entities that have undertaken to report, evaluations
of recent reporting, the types of sources from which this reporting
derived, and an estimate of overall capability. A desirable additional
step, time permitting, would involve verification of the results with
the agencies concerned. A hypothetical example is at Tab A. The
step-by-step process is at Tab B.
V. Initial operating capability and full capability--time required.
roved For Release 2006/09/0
 Approved For Release 2006/09/06: CIA-RDP83M00914R002000070003-4
Approved For Release 2006/09/06: CIA-RDP83M00914R002000070003-4
 SUBJECT: Step-By-Step Procedure
Approved For Release 2006/Sp&n T CIA-RDP83M00914R002000070003-4
Time Requiredl
Step Current When Automated2
1. DCI request received and
analysis begins.
2. Pertinent objectives and 3 hours 30 minutes
requirements and respon-
sible collectors are -
delineated.
4. Responsible collectors 2 hours 2 hours3
are advised of DCI query
and requested to provide
input from data not on
COLTS and RECON--especially
sensitive capabilities and
reporting.
5. Assessment data available up to 8 hours 0 hours4
from HHCS is reviewed.
3. Based on key words, recent 2 hours,
reporting is obtained from
COLTS and RECON. (Note:
Assumes source bylines are
available on reports.)
6. Analysis of data is up to 8 hours up to 8 hours
undertaken, including
generic source data.5
7. Final report is prepared. 3 hours
3 hours
21 hours 15 1/2 hours
1. Assumes availability of computer terminal at CHB to which immediate
access is possible.
2. Assumes only interim SAFE capability is available.
3. Assumes requests can be made by secure phone. This action runs
parallel with #2 and #3 above. Time required by collectors is
not included.
4. Done as part of analysis of data (#6).
5. Assumes sensitive data from collectors is made available and not
forwarded separately.
SECRET