IMPLICATIONS OF AN OIL PRICE DECLINE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R001000060008-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 20, 2007
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: December 20, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/02/20: CIA-RDP83M00914R001000060008-1
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
PROvI . Robert M. Gates
Deputy Director for -intelligence
SUBJECT implications of an Oil Price Decline
1. Action Requested: Sign the attached note forwarding the
cii price decline paper. I recommend that we send it out with the
PT)B tomolzow morning.
Background: The possibility of a si%cabic oil price decline
during the next six months its increasing. The decline can have sub-
stantial positive effects on the global economy, but there arc also
substantial downside risks, especially on the political front. We
believe that the first year following an oil price decline will be
the iighest risk period. This assessment focuses on the friction
points that will accompany an oil price decline; the assessment is
designed to provide the policy commznity with some lead time on
ho,~ to chink about managing a reverse oil shock.
Robert M. Gatesr
Attachment:
As Stated
'A p bVe i r...R ase.2O 02/20;