GLOBAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R001000010007-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 16, 2007
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: January 15, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/02/16: CIA-RDP83M00914R001000010007-7
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
SECRET
VIA: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
National Intelligence Officer for Economics
? prepare graphs and tables;
? present more than a very generalized picture of longer-term
economic trends;
1. Herewith is first cut on the Global Economic
Assessment. I believe has done an outstanding job. There was
insufficient time, however, to
? review the paper;
? write a Summary and Conclusions.
2. From a quick reading of the paper I believe additions and changes
along the following lines would be appropriate:
Energy
A brief discussion of the circumstances under which the nominal
price of oil might fall during 1982-82--for example, an end to the
Iran-Iraq war coupled with slow growth of energy demand in the West--
and the implications thereof. For the longer term, a clear analysis of
the policy implications of divergent forecasts for real oil prices.
Other "Implications"
Some of the analysis in this section could be taken further to
cover feedback, and political-economic linkages. For example:
All portions of this document
are classified SECRET
DDI #333-82
15 January 1982
Deriv Cl By Signer
Revw on 15 Jan 88
C-/l a
25X1
25X1
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Approved For Release 2007/02/16: CIA-RDP83M00914R001000010007-7
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SECRET
the US, in their efforts to avoid excessive unemployment, but also
carries security implications. There is a risk, for example, that the
US eventually will have to procure abroad a dangerously large share of
key inputs for its military programs.
In General
While adding some material along the above lines, we would hope to boil
down some existing sections so as to hold the length of the paper to a
minimum.
Attachment,
As stated
 Approved For Release 2007/02/1 G U RDP83MOO914R001000010007-7
DDI #333-82
15 January 1982
DCI/NIC/NI0/Econ
15 Jan 82)
Distribution:
Orig - Addressee
1 - DDCI
1 - DCI/ExDir
1 - ER
1 - DDI Registry
1 - C/NIC
1 - NIC/AG - C
2 - NI0/Econ
Approved For Release 2007/02/16: CIA-RDP83M00914R001000010007-7
 Approved For Release 2007/02/16: CIA-RDP83M00914R001000010007-7
Approved For Release 2007/02/16: CIA-RDP83M00914R001000010007-7