GLOBAL ECONOMIC PAPER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R001000010004-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 16, 2007
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: February 12, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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12 February 1982
MEP~ORANDUM FOR: National Intelligence Officer At-Large
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Global Economic Paper
I want to amalgamate all this next week and the way the papers
are circulated through the Community on the opportunities and possi-
bilities. I would like your thoughts on t4.is sometime in the middle
of next creek. What I've gotten so far is .too mushy, too confined to
current trends and too macroeconomic.
Attachments:
u
memos o anuary,
5 February 2)
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26 January 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Global Economic Assessment
I've developed an outline for this assessment, and with the help of
assorted people I've begun to put the thing together. Since this project has
suffered so many crash landings, in the interest of avoiding yet another one
I want to be certain that the course I'm on is the one you want:
1. We are writing a global economic assessment because our foreign
and national security policies are increasingly influenced by the global
economic environment. Hence a grasp of this environment is crucial to
achieving our national objectives.
2. Our thesis is that the global economic environment is largely the
product of government policies. That is, of the efforts by governments to
organize and mana a human resources along a chosen course such as ra id
or economic security 2sx1
Changes in the global environment arise from nationa dif erential??xl
in suc ey factors as technological innovation, investment levels, productivity,
marketing prowess, defense burdens, and social efficiencies such as the willing-
ness of a work force to accept change.
By analyzing the policies of key countries and regions, we can project
which are likely to gain influence in coming years and which are likely to
lose influence.
3. We'll begin with an overview of the US role in the global economy
during the 1970s. This section--or at least the piece that will be the basis
for this section--is now moving through Mike Boretsky's typewriter.
4. Ensuing sections will outline the status and direction of key countries
and regions:
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This section will show which countries and regions are gaining economic
influence, and which are losing influence. These judgments will be based on
our analysis of the policies these countries and regions are pursuing.
5. The next section will outline the impact that commodity shortages
would have on the trends we've projected.
6. Our final section will outline the national security implications
of the trends we've projected. We'll discuss the opportunities for leverage--
and the vulnerabilities--these trends will present in years to come.
7. This first assessment will put us in the business of providing this
sort of intelligence. We'll learn where we are weak, and how to re-deploy
our assets to improve the quality and value of our economic analysis. Our
first Global Economic Assessment will be okay. Our second one will be
brilliant.
2
SECRET
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5 February 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Global Economic Assessment
1. Here, for your approval or modification, is an outline of our
Global Economic Assessment.
2. As you will see, Part I details the economic strategies of selected
countries and regions. Part II articulates the implications of these
strategies for the US national security. .Since the strategies themselves
are mostly obvious, I suggest that we devote relatively few pages to Part I;
and that the bulk of our effort he devoted to analyzing the implications.
3. Lionel Olmer's Cabinet committee report will parallel our assessment
only at one point: technologies in which the US may lose its edge. His report
will include a set of recommendations. Ours, of course, will not.
CONFIDENTIAL
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 Approved For Release 2007/02116 :CIA-RDP83M00914R001000010004-0
GLOBAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
This assessment outlines the economic strategies of key countries and
regions. It then articulates the implications of these strategies for the
US national security.
CONFIDENTIAL
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