INTELLIGENCE ISSUES FOR EARLY REVIEW BY THE NEW ADMINISTRATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00171R002100100013-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 8, 2001
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: January 14, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

SECRET 14 January 1981
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INTELLIGENCE ISSUES FOR EARLY REVIEW
There are a number of issues associated with satellite collection
of intelligence that warrant early and thorough review by the new admin-
istration. Seven generic categories of issues are discussed in turn
below: Launch Strategies, Robustness, Surge Capacity, Survivability,
Defense versus National Systems, the Changing Collection Environment,
and Budgetary Concerns.
? Launch Strategies: The issue of launching satellites via
the Shutt a versus Expendable Launch Vehicles (ELV) has not been ade-
quately resolved.
? Robustness: Intelligence capabilities have been refered to
as the "fourth leg" of the TRIAD. Executive, legislative, and military
leaders have become accustomed to daily and in some instances hourly
service consisting of accurate and timely indications and warning
intelligence information. The concept of robustness deals with the
ability of the Intelligence Community to consistently provide needed
intelligence regardless of natural, hostile, or technological events
or malfunctions that otherwise would disrupt its vital mission.
Robustness can be achieved in a number of ways. Depth and diversity
are two examples. Depth can be achieved by planning for backup sate-
llites, either on orbit or ready for launch, that fill in for lost
or degraded asserts. Diversity can be achieved by collecting the same
or equivalent information by different and unrelated collection systems
thereby hedging against loss or failure of one of the systems. Much
remains to be done to achieve balanced insurance against unanticipated
failure of collection systems.
9 Surge Ca acit The Intelligence Community has been commended
by various policymakers for its ability to respond to crisis, Third
World, and other ad hoc coverage requirements. The caveat to these com
mendations deplored the sacrifice in collection of high priority standing
requirements, Future collection
and processing systems should explicitly take into account potential
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surge collection requirements, both in terms of collection capacity
and geographical access.
o Survivability: Considerable progress has been made in iden-
tifying and addressing the vulnerabilities of national collection
satellites.
o Defense versus National Systems: The defense versus national
systems issue is related to but transcends the narrower issue of survi-
vability. There is a clear and growing trend toward respective paro-
chialism within the defense and intelligence communities. The recent
creation of the Defense Recconnaisance Support Program is one example.
The mission of the DRSP seems to be to procure and operate intelligence
satellites tailored specifically to Department of Defense needs. The
functions of many of these systems will-be ider tical to those provided
by Intelligence Community assets. The change of administrations offers
a timely opportunity to reassess this trend toward divergent consumer
tailored specialization and to determine whether the trend should
be encouraged, altered, or abated. There may be potential benefits
in terms of robustness, capacity, and survivability. There also may
be potential costs in terms of competitiveness, management control,
redundancy, and expense. The extent and nature of benefits and costs
should be clearly identified and weighed to arrive at a coherent
and consistent policy that meets the reasonable needs of all consumers.
o The Changing Collection Environment: The determination and tfle
technological advances of the Soviet Union have substantially altered
the dynamics of the collection environment. The rapidity with which
the target environment changes is accelerating. At the same time,
it is taking longer and longer to field new systems for collection.
It is not at all inconceivable that during the five to seven, ten cr
more years required to deploy a new system that the collection envircn-
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 SECRET
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ment could change enough to diminish or even negate the utility of the
system. There is currently no explicit or formal mechanism within
the Community to track the changing environment and identify program-
matic implications. Increased emphasis on longer range planning and
the establishment of program review milestones are two potential ways
of resolving the problem.
? Budgetary Concerns: There have been many changes and improve-
ments in the Intelligence Community budget process. The centralized
resource management function has considerably improved and smoothed
the budget review process. The improvements in process have not been
accompanied by improvements in our knowledge of and ability to assess
budget content. Specifically, we know very little about the prepara-
tion of budget submission packages and even less about how monies
are actually spent after the budget is approved. We do know of in-
stances where budget package costs are "padded" by as much as three
or four hundred percent. We also know of instances where millions
of dollars approved for one purpose are spent for-another. There are
undoubtedly many valid reasons for this situation, not the least of
which is providing program managers with much needed flexibility in
exercising their responsibilities. However, not knowing how money
is spent reduces the value of a centralized budget process. The
problems are associated with the transition from the decentralized
"streamlined management" process of the past towards something akin
to the DoD system acquisition process. Currently, we have neither.
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