USSR-AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300170017-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 29, 2007
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: October 29, 1979
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/05/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300170017-2
Slmteg~x Warning Std
29 October 1979 25X1
kMMORAND` : FOR: Warning Working Group
USSR-Afghanistan
The NIO/W asked that -e forward the attached to all members of the WWG.
Attachment a/s
DOUGLAS J. MacEAGIN
Director
Approved For Release 2007/05/29: CIA-RDP83B010 7R000: 00170017-7
 Approved For Release 2007/05/29: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300170017-2
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to kv Warning Std
MF2 )RAS M FOR: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
USSR-Afghanistan
1. We are concerned that in the month that has elapsed since the
USSP.-Afghanistan. Alert Memorandum and t'h?? ILM Soviet Options ir,
Afzhanir .~'an were issued, the Soviet: appear to h:-.-.ve put ;_he:aseives
in posiuion to move a larger ground combat force into Afghanistan in
less tiS--_- and affording less advance warni than was believed possible
at the time those papers were written. 25X1
4. In sum, if I motorized divisions located on the
Afghanistan border are now manned at higher states of readiness, as
the evidence suggests they may be, the Soviets would bk able, within
about a 48 hour period, to insert an airL; rne. division (the 105th at
Fergana) into Kabul, a motorized rifle division, into Kandahar, and at
least major elements of a motorized rifle division into Mazar-i-Sharif.
A major ground force intervention along these lines would not nerd to be
pre