MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120020-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 20
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120020-3
DDCI
TT DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NFAC-0966-79
26 February 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
National Intelligence Officer for Warning At-
FROM : Acting National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America
1. Action Requested: None; for your information only. J
2. New Developments: Terrorism in Central America continues to
escalate and in some countries threatens the lives of US Embassy
personnel and their families. Terrorist activities have provoked harsh
repression in Nicaragua, "death squad" retribution in Guatemala, and a
right-wing warning to President Romero in El Salvador to brin ersion
under control or be ousted and replaced by a military junta.
El Salvador
3. President Romero reportedly has been given until Holy Week
(mid-April) to bring terrorism and leftist subversion under control. If
he does not succeed, a group of military officers and influential
civilians intend to remove Romero, form a military junta and crack down
hard on leftist terrorism. Meanwhile, intelligence has revealed that the
Farabundo Marti Popular Liberation Forces (FPL) is planning a new wave of
violence against the Romero government and acts of terrorism against a
list of US Embassy officials. lul
4. While FPL action could begin any time, it probably will begin
after March 1979 when a cadre of some 50 members, who are currently
receiving military and ideological training in Cuba, will return to
El Salvador. They are supposed to be the organizational core of a force
of two thousand men. Reportedly, this force is currently being trained.
in small "popular militia" units.
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National Intelligence Officers
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5. The FPL is the strongest terrorist organization in El Salvador
and has effectively carried out numerous assassinations and kidnappings.
Leftist in orientation, it has about 600 members. It is associated with
a mass organization known as the Popular Revolutionary Bloc, which numbers
about 60,000 members and carries out~nglitical action in the form of
demonstrations and work stoppages.
6. US officials and their families number more than one hundred
people in El Salvador. In addition, there are 150 Peace Corps volunteers
scattered across the country. According to the Embassy Security Officer,
adequate protection for all Americans is impossible in the face of this
threat. The Ambassador is considering various security measures including
the possibility of a staff reduction on the order of 35-40 percent to be
carried out slowly to reduce unfavorable political impact.
Nicaragua
7. Following the breakdown of US-led mediation efforts, President
Somoza is pressing his advantage to eliminate his political opposition.
In January alone, the National Guard killed or captured 95 members of
the FSLN. F_~
8. In mid-February, the National Guard shot and killed five youths
inside a church where they had staged a sit-in to support a hospital
workers' strike. Outraged, the Curia of Leon condemned the "brutal
massacre" in a telegram to Somoza. A number of groups have issued strong
condemnations of the National Guard. The mayor of Leon has reportedly
resigned, and the United People's Movement, a coalition of some 20
leftists organizations, called on the church to excommunicate Somoza.
9. Reaction to the "massacre" has been intense, and we should
anticipate that more incidents directed against the National Guard,
Somoza, and the government will occur in Leon and will spread to other
cities of Nicaragua. Although many of these confrontations are likely
to be ugly, Somoza will doubtless maintain his control over the country.
Guatemala
10. In Guatemala there has been an alarming increase in the number.
of killings -- many related to land encroachments in the rural areas.
Most of the victims were leftists. The Acting President of Guatemala,
Villagran Kramer, has attributed the killings to "death squads", giving
rise to the interpretation that the government security forces were
carrying them out because of their frustration with the system.
.which they believe puts criminals back on the streets.
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?
11. Villagran Kramer's surprising remarks will doubtless lead to
tension between him and President Lucas when the latter returns from
the United States.
Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120020-3
 Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120020-3
NFAC-0966-79
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Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120020-3