MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300100007-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 2, 2007
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: August 27, 1979
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/04/03: CIA-RDP83BG1027R000300100007-0
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
NFAC-4516-79
27 August 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : Deputy Director for National, Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning,
FROM : National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America (C)
1. Action Requested: None; for your information only. (U)
2. Mexico
President Lopez Portillo may decide to cancel his late-September
meeting in Washington with President Carter, as a sign of Mexican dis-
pleasure with the slow movement on bilateral problems, especially the
natural gas agreement, and with what they perceive to be the continued
unwillingness of the US to recognize their increased leverage in the
relationship. (S)
3. El Sa1vador-Nicaragua-Cuba
Credible signs of an attempt by elements of El Salvador's military
government and civilian oligarchy to liberalize the political system may
suddenly touch off widespread violence, as extremists on the left and
right try to undercut the opening toward moderation. Such a development
could galvanize the Cubans and the Nicaraguans to take greater risks to
provide substantial assistance to leftist insurgents than they might prefer
at this stage. (S)
4. Panama
Passage by the US Congress of enabling legislation that is
perceived by the Torrijos government to undercut US commitments under the
Canal Treaty could lead to measured anti-US demonstrations. These are
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not likely to seriously endanger US personnel and interests unless Torrijos
concludes that President Carter is supporting the legislation. Increasing
National Guard pressures on Torrijos to dump President Royo could add an
element of uncertainty to Torrijos' game plan during this delicate
period. (S)
5. Guyana
The Burnham government's campaign of violence and intimidation
against opposition forces has at least temporarily taken the steam out of
their efforts to drive him out of office. The opposition may be tempted
to regain momentum by touching off large-scale disturbances during the
Prime Minister's absence from the country to attend the Non-Aligned
Movement (NAM) summit in Cuba, 3 to 7 September. (S)
 Approved For Release 2007/04/03: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300100007-0
Approved For Release 2007/04/03: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300100007-0