MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300090005-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 18, 2007
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: December 27, 1979
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/04/18: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300090005-4
0' SECRET 0
-4 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NFAC 7006-79
27 December 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM: Jack Davis
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America0 25X1
1. Action Requested: None; for your information only.
II
2. Background: The meeting concentrated on the situation
in El Salvador. Most participants expressed growing concern about
the survival of the reformist Junta. First, the government seemed
uncertain about its priorities and subject to at least tactical
disagreements over follow through on both the reform and pacifica-
tion fronts. Second, the leftist extremists seemed bolder, better
armed, and more effective in their disruptive activities; guerilla
raids, terrorist attacks, and demonstrations. Equally significant,
the security and military forces, especially the army, seemed in
poor condition (training, organization,-morale, leadership) to deal
with the security situation. And this problem was impossible to
solve over the short term. Finally, the extreme right had the
potential to play a spoiler role. rI
3. Most participants concluded that the time for the Junta
was probably running out: only more decisive action and increased
US economic and military assistance could stem the momentum of the
extremists; even this might not p~nVP~sufficient to preserve the
reformist government in control. IuI
4. There was general agreement that an IIM on El Salvador
be undertaken and completed as quickly as possible. 0
-A
 Approved For Release 2007/04/18: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300090005-4
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Approved For Release 2007/04/18: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300090005-4