MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300080030-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 30
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved Fo.lease 2007/0 P83BO10 000300080030-7
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
NFAC 1277-80
21 February 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM: Robert C. Ames
National Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asia
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia
1. Lebanon/Syria/Israel. Syria's announcement that it would withdraw
its peacekeeping forces from Beirut has revived the prospect of a renewed
civil war between the adversaries in the 1975-1976 conflict: Christian
militiamen and the coalition of Palestinian fedayeen and leftist Muslim
forces. Tensions between the two sides are higher than at any time since
the end of the war; each has placed its forces on alert, mobilized reserves,
-and made other preparations in anticipation of renewed conflict. Moreover,
Syrian troop movements in the Bekaa Valley, combined with what Israeli
intelligence officials believe are credible reports of Syrian planning for
limited hostile action against Israel, have raised the possibility of broader
conflict either by intention or miscalculation.
Tensions within Lebanon appear to hold the most imminent danger.
In addition to deepening friction between Muslims and Christians, there has
been sporadic and intense fighting between rival Christian factions -- the
followers of former President Franjiyah and Pierre Jumayil's Phalanges
Party -- in north Lebanon. The Phalanges has close ties to the Israelis,
while Franji,yah has close personal ties with President Assad and in recent
clashes with the Phalanges has received assistance from Syrian forces. The
danger in continued clashes between the Christian groups is the possibility
that Israel and Syria will be drawn into the feud and/or that Muslim
militants will take advantage of Christian divisions.
2. Saudi Arabia. The hospitalization of King Khalid raises the
possibility that Saudi Arabia may soon be facing succession. Although
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We believe that the succession process, when it does
place, will be carried out smoothly and that the real test in the transition
from Khalid to Crown Prince Fahd's leadership will rest in the character
of Fahd's rule: whether he preserves the collegial nature of decision-
making, improves his somewhat tarnished reputation, and displays greater
skill in handling divisions within the Saud family that could fatally
weaken the monarchy. In the meantime, Khalid's increasingly obvious
frail health and its effects on his ability to assert leadership could
increase royal and popular unease.
3. Morocco. Increasing anti-regime activity particularly within the
student and labor movements in Morocco signals new inroads by leftists and
underscores the mounting price King Hassan is paying as a result of the
unresolved situation in Western Sahara. The drain on Morocco's resources
and energies of the Sahara imbroglio has exacerbated the country's social
and economic problems, which the King seems either unwilling or unable to
tackle. Although many and perhaps even most Moroccans still share the
King's desire to maintain Moroccan claims to Sahara, the willingness of
many to set aside other concerns is clearly flagging. The ebb and flow of
Morocco's fortunes in the struggle to maintain control of the territory has
elicited an increasingly critical -- if not hostile -- attitude toward the
King's leadership. We believe that the King's problems will continue to
mount, that they are of a magnitude that threaten him and the monarchy, and
that resolution of the Sahara problem is the necessary first step in
retrieving the King's prospects.
Robert C. Ames
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NFAC 1277-80
21 February 1980
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia
A/NIO/NESA 21 Feb. 80)
Distribution:
Orig - Addee
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