MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300080016-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 16
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NFAC-3214-80/1
1 May 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM : National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America
1. Attached is a copy of the Latin America Warning Assessment
based upon our discussion of 22 April 1980.
2. The next warning meeting will be held on 20 May 1980 at
1100 hours in roon 5GOO, CIA headquarters. Tentative agenda for the
meeting is as follows:
El Salvador
Honduras
Nicaragua
Cuba
Jamaica
Brazil
Please call by noon on 19 May to give her
the name of the individual participating from your office.
Att: (1)
Downgrade to CONFIDENTIAL
when separate from attachment.
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THE DIREC? OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
FROM : NIO/LA
1 May 1980
While Jamaica was not addressed at our April
warning meeting, the political violence about
which I expressed concern in the March report has
taken a turn for the worse. There is likely to be
a call for an SCC meeting on the matter over the
next two weeks.
Att: (1)
Distribution:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - DD/NFA
1 - NIO/W
2 - NIO/LA
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NFAC-3214-80
1 May 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH . Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM : National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America
1. Action Requested: None; for your information only.
2. El Salvador
There are some hopeful tendencies at work:
-- The crisis over the Archbishop's assassination has
been weathered.
Venezuela is quietly providing political and economic
advice and support.
The junta government is more aware of its "image"
problems and organizational shortcomings in regard
to reaching decisions.
The land-to-the-tiller (tenants, sharecroppers) phase
of the agrarian reform--if enacted effectively--should
increase the popularity of the government.
Archbishop Romero's replacement seems committed to
defusing (rather than exacerbating) tensions.
The extreme left does not yet appear strong or confident
enough to launch a major military offensive.
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On balance, however, the prospects for the present centrist,
reformist government substantially to increase its effectiveness and
popularity remain small.
The government is still weakened by conflicts among
junta members, and Christian Democratic officials
continue to resign.
International opinion still is broadly critical, and
the extreme left is gaining ground with center leftists
outside the government.
Rapidly worsening economic problems, brought on by
violence and uncertainty, could prove to be the junta's
achilles' heel.
-- The rightist terror campaign continues.
-- Extreme leftist violence in rural areas is expanding.
3. Honduras
The elections for the constituent assembly brought out a large
vote and may prove an important first step toward effective, reformist,
representative government. The country's basic problems remain very
large, however. Its civilian and military leadership is untested for
the road ahead. Score: some short-term gains; still vulnerable over
the medium term.
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Cuba
Castro's decision to promote a major exodus of the discontented
should work to relieve some of the building political and economic dis-
content. But unless the economic performance improves, any domestic
benefits will be shortlived. Meanwhile, the refugee issue works to
compound the loss of international prestige touched off by Cuba's
support of the Soviet Union on Afghanistan. His goal of improving
government-to-government relations with major Latin American governments
has been set back, especially with Venezuela and Peru. Mexico is a key
exception. Despite their usual skill in counterpunching on the refugee
issue, Castro and his regime probably have lost a bit of their self-
confidence over the past five months, as well as of their international
image.
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5. Brazil
Things are not going well for the Fi guei redo government.
Foreign lenders are increasingly wary about expanding credits and
investment. Satisfactory rates of economic growth and acceptable
levels of political peace both will come under challenge from the
declining international confidence and from domestic tensions (sky-
rocketing inflation, labor militancy, growing business discontent with
government restrictive measures). While not discounting a Brazilian
talent for self-correction, there is a growing likelihood that Brazil
will be visited with much greater public disorders, and with a decline
of unity and confidence within the ruling elite.
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SECRET
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6. Argentina
The increase in trade and other ties between Argentine and
the Soviet Union indicates a coincidence of short-term interests. This
should be studied more carefully; and the extent to which US-Argentine
policy strains contribute, taken into account. But there seems only an
outside chance that Argentina will seek, or accept Soviet overtures for,
a close relationship--such as in terms of military equipment or training.
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NFAC-3214-80
DCI
DDCI
D D/ N FA
NIO/W
NI0/AF
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NI0/GPF
NI0/NESA
N I0/ PE
NI0/USSR-EE
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Senior Review Panel
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