MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300080004-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 4
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/06/04: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300080004-6
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
is
NFAC 4323-80
17 June 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM: Robert C. Ames
National Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asia
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia
1. Libya. Discussion of this announced agenda item produced few
unique insights into Qadhafi's prospects or scenarios for succession.
Although recent actions (e.g. Embassy burnings, assassination campaign
against Libyan dissidents abroad) suggest that Qadhafi's position may be
becoming more precarious, there is no reason to believe that a coup is
imminent. There was considerable discussion, however, of the motivations
for and likelihood of success of Libyan attempts to intercept US military
aircraft and ships. It was noted that the Libyans are becoming more capable
in their intercepts, and that practice might make perfect -- or at least
lucky -- were the olitical decision actually taken by Qadhafi to fire on
a US aircraft.
2. Western Sahara. It is likely that the Saharan Democratic Arab
Republic (SDAR) will be recognized in some way at the 1-3 July OAU Summit
in Freetown, Sierra Leone -- possibly in conjunction with new Polisario
military actions in Western Sahara. Morocco might withdraw from the OAU
if this happens, all of which would' constitute a significant setback to
Hassan's negotiating position.
3. The West Bank: A long, hot summer? The events over the last month
in the West Bank constitute a qualitative change in the prospects for
violence there. Although West Bank Palestinians are not (yet) as fanatically
motivated as Algerian freedom fighters, the Hebron attack suggests that
some may have taken a step in that direction. The possible development of
a militant, terrorist Jewish organization would exacerbate this slide into
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what could become an irreversible series of violent attacks and counter-
attacks. Clearly, we are currently in a phase of more active Israeli
repression, which can only serve as a catalyst to an eventual slide
into increased violence. The adverse impact of such developments on
autonomy negotiations and on the already increasing price tag of
friends in the area working with us on other issues is obvious. I15X1
4. Afghanistan. Factional fighting within the Afghan government is
getting worse, and the counter insurgency campaign by the Soviet military
is distinctly unsuccessful. Pakistan's President Zia has decided to increase
his support to the Afghan rebels, whose numbers are increasing. Under
these circumstances we believe that the Soviets will soon -- if they have
not already begun to do so -- significantly increase their military forces
in Afghanistan. 25X1
5. Agenda Item for July Warning Meeting. Representatives to next
month'ng should come prepared to discuss succession prospects in 25X1
Iran.
I
Robert C. Ames
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Annrn\/,-tl For Release 2007/06/04 ~ IA-R DP83BO1027R000300080004-6
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NFAC 4323-80
17 June 1980
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia
A/NIO/NESA
Approved For Release 2007/06/04: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300080004-6
Distribution:
Orig - Addee
1 - DDCI
1 - ER
1 - DD/NFA
1 - DD/NFAC
1 C/NIC
1 - SA/CI
2 - NIO/NESA
-ach NIO
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 - State/INR/RNA
Director
Senior Review Panel
NSC Coordinator
OPA/NESA
OPA/USSR
OER/D/NE
OER/D/SA
NFAC Reg
1 - DDO/NE
1 - DDO/EPDS
1 - NCPO/Near
1 - NFAC/RES
1 - OSI/LSD
(17 June
1 - HQ USMC Code INTP
1 - DIO/Near East
1 - DIA/DN2E1
1 - NSA/G-6
1 - ACSI DAMI FII
1 - ONI/Estimates
1 - AF/INER
80)
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