MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300070033-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2007
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: August 25, 1980
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM FOR:
VIA:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
NFAC 5885-80
25 August 1980
Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Robert C. Ames
National Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asia
Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia
1. Libya. The failed coup attempt, which took place in early
August, remains a murky affair. It is unclear as to how deeply key military
units were involved and whether there was any significant collaboration
between the putschists and civilian dissidents or outsiders. Although
it appears the regime has events well in hand, Qadhafi has not appeared
publicly. The events in eastern Libya raise several disturbing prospects:
-- We were not able to anticipate the coup attempt except
in the broadest sense of knowing that Qadhafi's support
has eroded seriously and similar efforts against him
have taken place over the past five years. We 25X1
I leastern Libya, which is the 25X1
stronghold of anti-regime sentiment, and may not be able
for sometime to piece together what happened there and its
ramifications.
-- We assume that the August disturbances will increase
tensions along the Egyptian-Libyan border and thus enhance
the possibility of an incident, either by plan or mis-
calculation.
-- It is likely that the Libyan regime will become more
defensive - perhaps even suspicious of a US hand in
the coup attempt - and thus more inclined to react to
US reconnaissance missions off the Libyan coa The
last Libyan reaction took place on August 5.
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2. Pakistan. Sectarian tensions are on the rise in Pakistan. Most
recently, President Zia has inflamed friction between Shia and Sunni
Muslims through his inept handling of a plank of his Islamization program -
the Zakat tax. In addition to being angry with one another, both Shia
and Sunni activists are becoming embittered with the martial law regime.
These anti-regime sentiments are especially vulnerable to manipulation by
Shia revolutionaries in Iran, who have in recent weeks become significantly
more hostile in their approach to Zia. There is also mounting evidence
of anti-Zia activity among Baluchi tribemen, some of whom are collaborating
with the Soviet-backed Afghan government. Although sectarian agitation
appears at this stage to be within bounds controllable by Zia, it coiescalate - especially if fueled from outside - in ways that could divider-"X1
and preoccupy the regime.
3. The Arab-Israeli Issues. Developments in the Middle East over the
past month were the centerpiece of discussion among community representatives.
There was general agreement that events over the past month foreshadowed
continuing and possibly intensified tensions in the region.
-- Israeli attacks on Palestinian strongholds in southern
Lebanon could usher in rapid escalation of hostilities
there. Air clashes between the Israelis and Syrians
have already taken place. It is also possible that
there will be continuing Israeli attacks perhaps
encouraging the Christian Phalange to go after Christian
adversaries in the north led by former President
Franjiyah. This, in turn, could draw the Syrians
directly into the fray in order to protect Franjiyah,
who has been an ally and supporter of Syrian policy
in Lebanon.
The Israelis - concerned about the Palestinian arms
build up and UNFIL's inability to control Palestinian
activity - probably see the period of US elections and
Syrian preoccupation with domestic trouble as an
opportunity for greater operational flexibility. Thus,
a major Israeli operation in Lebanon is a distinct
possibility.
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Controversy over Jerusalem stirred by recent Israeli
moves has greatly diminished prospects for resuming
peace talks anytime soon. Although moves by those
opposed in general to the Camp David negotiations have
not been significant thus far, Crown Prince Fahd's
call for a "jihad" (holy war) to thwart Israeli
annexation of Jerusalem could provide an opening for
future exploitation of anti-Camp David sentiments
by radical Arab states. Meanwhile, friction between
Egypt and Israel is building and there is the appearance
of great disarray among the negotiating partners -
the US, Cairo, and Tel Aviv. The danger in this
situation is that both the tangible and intangible
foundations for the negotiating process will erode
irreversibly during this period of malaise.
Although there was general agreement among community
representatives on the problems inherent in these
individual events, there were widely differing inter-
pretations as to whether taken together these problems
significantly alter prospects for the region. On one
side were those who felt this constellation of events
was not dissimilar to other recent low periods in the
area and that there was no convincing evidence that
popular sentiment or even official attitudes indicated a
desire to take radical new actions.
Contrasting to this view were those who felt that recent
events have created a very ominous atmosphere that could
badly erode the chances for an effective resumption of
the peace process and could, in the extreme, cause the
Arabs, who have few other effective weapons, to use more
forcefully both the oil weapon and terrorism to press
their cause. The growing pessimism in Israel over the
prospects for peace and the sense of the inevitability
of another war within the Israeli military were - along
with circumstances already cited - seen as undermining
the resolve, spirit, and creative effort required to
keep the region from sli ing back into the mentality
of confrontation.
4. Topics suggested for next month's meeting included: further discussion
of Pakistan; Syrian-Soviet relations; and prospects for negotiations between
Algeria and Morocco. 25X1
Robert C. Ames
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NFAC 5885-80
25 August 1980
A/NIO/NESA
(25 Aug. 80)
Distribution:
Orig - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - ER
1 - DD/NFA
1 - DD/NFAC
1 - C/NIC
1 - SA/CI
2 - NI0/NES
-1-'-Each NIO
1 - Each Office Director
1 - Senior Review Panel
1 - NSC Coordinator
1 - OPA/NESA
1 - OPA/USSR
1 - OER/D/NE
1 - OER/D/SA
1 - NFAC Reg
1 - DDO/NE
1 - DDO/EPDS
1 - NCPO/Near East
1 - NFAC/RES
1 - OSI/LSD
1 - State/INR/RNA
1 - DIO/Near East
1 - DIA/DN2E1
1 - NSA/G-6
1 - ACSI DAMI FII
1 - ONI/Estimates Br.
1 - AF/INER
1 - HQ USMC Code INTP
0
SECRET/NOFORN
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia