MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300070017-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2007
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: October 28, 1980
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NFAC-7122-80
28 October 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM : National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America
1. Action Requested: none; for your information only.
2. Jamaica
Political violence is rising sharply as the 30 October election
approaches, and rumors persist of last-minute radical efforts, with Cuban
assistance, to derail or "steal" the election. Nonetheless, the odds
strongly favor the election taking place as scheduled. And we still see
the opposition JLP as the winner--probably by a comfortable majority of
seats.
Political violence is almost certain to continue for some time
after the election, with revenge-taking by the rival gangs the immediate
driving force. This might encourage the radicals to try to keep Seaga
from taking office (he would become Prime Minister immediately after
winning the election). Only if the election is close and the bloodletting
widespread would any such plot have much chance of working. Even then,
JLP stalwarts, now with the open cooperation of the security forces,
would very likely prevail. The Cubans would probably lend some assistance
to the radicals in the post-election period, but would be unlikely to
intervene directly or on a large scale.
3. El Salvador
The leftist extremists are being weakened by casualties, defections,
and factionalism. Factionalism continues within the government as well,
and far-right military and civilian groups may see the immediate post-
election period in the US as a good opportunity for a coup attempt or for
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an indirect move for pressuring the government toward more decisive
control by hardliners. Moreover, government forces are also taking
heavy casualties, and the junta is extremely vulnerable to the extremists'
campaign of sabotage against the harvests in particular and the economy
in general.
If the present junta survives this assault, and if its rightist
supporters do not move against it, the odds are good that it will hold
on to office for at least the next several months. The chances of.it
increasing its popular and political support and consolidating its rule
decisively, however, still seem small. It still desperately needs foreign
assistance for the long haul, and still suffers from a highly unfavorable
international image.
4. Nicaragua
The Sandinistas are facing mounting problems and are increasingly
vulnerable to organized and "spontaneous" popular challenges to their
policies. Here, too, the immediate post-election period in the US may
be seen by the Sandinistas (and the Cubans) as a good opportunity for
installing more openly dictatorial practices. If Governor Reagan is
elected, and in anticipation of increased strains with the US, the
Sandinistas may be especially motivated to move in this direction.
5. Cooperation Among Rightist Governments
Again, if Governor Reagan wins the election, rightist Latin America
governments may conclude that they have more leeway to move not only against
leftist extremists but against "suspect" centrist political groups as well.
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