MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300050037-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 19, 2007
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: August 20, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/04/19: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300050037-3
. SECRET ?
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
NIO/W
?NFAC-5240-81
20 August 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH . National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM : Assistant NIO for Latin America
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America
1. El Salvador
The leftist guerrillas have become bolder and their tactics
increasingly sophisticated in their campaign of disruption and destruction.
The insurgents are hitting more widely and with greater frequency,
inflicting increased casualties on the security forces. They briefly held
a remote town, which reportedly was to have been declared a "liberated"
zone, and have disrupted much of the country's electrical power supply.
Their aim is to tie down security forces and portray a government unable
to cope. They seem to be gaining confidence and some momentum--though
the level of military activity does not begin to approach last January's
offensive.
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Government forces appear to be increasingly demoralized and dis-
couraged--especially younger officers. Moreover, the guerrillas reportedly
plan to keep up the pressure for 3-4 months. Under the circumstances, it is
difficult for security forces to train the additional forces they need and
fully absorb materiel being made available to them. Moreover, their rising
frustration increases the possibility of retaliatory actions--perhaps not
well thought out--that could prove counterproductive. Finally, the military's
discomfiture is likely to feed its long-standing distrust of cogoverning
civilian politicians, leading to renewed strains in the regime. II 25X1
2. Panama
The death of strongman Torrijos--for 13 years the principal
cohesive element in Panama's turbulent politics--greatly complicates the
local scene. Without Torrijos, it will be difficult to contain public
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dissatisfaction with the government, which became apparent some time ago.
Torrijos' official party will probably face a growing challenge from opposition
groups of the right and left. Former Torrijos subordinates will scramble
for increased influence, and there could be strains between the government and
the National Guard Torrijos had commanded. Some who had opposed the Torrijos-
negotiated Canal treaties with Washington as a "sellout" to the US will be
emboldened to reopen thaw and increasingly work to exploit nationalism
and anti-US sentiment.I I 25X1
3. Nicaragua
Despite renewed pressures by the Administration (Assistant Secretary
Enders' recent blunt talks in Managua), the Sandinistas are unlikely to
alter the behavior Washington finds increasingly provocative. Their commit-
ment to the insurgency in El Salvador remains as strong as ever, and they
are determined to build the area's most formidable military establishment. (S)
Indeed, if the Sandinistas conclude that a "showdown" with the US
is now inevitable, they may proceed still more rapidly with what they regard
as measures to "protect" themselves against the US and nearby conservative
regimes. Moreover, if the Salvadoran insurgents need additional short-term
assistance to continu current stepped-up activity, the Sandinistas
will probably oblige 25X1
4. Brazil
The unexpected departure of a top presidential aide, General Golbery (Ret.),
may signal significant policy shifts. Golbery, considered the architect of the
regime's political liberalization plan, lost out in disputes with other advisers
over the handling of this and other major issues. Politicians and other key
civilian groups now fear Brasilia's commitment to eventual restoration-of
civilian government has weakened. Many are also troubled by the government's
preoccupation with its ongoing is austerity drive, to bring down inflation
and improve external accounts. I 25X1
In coming weeks, many will be inclined to interpret every word and deed
by the regime as "proof" that their worst fears are about to be realized. If
there were, in fact, a major slowdown of the liberalization process-now
relatively far along--it would lead to serious tensions with once docile
civilian groups, by now accustomed to considerable openness and anticipating
unfettered congressional and gubernatorial eleUions. 25X1
25X1
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SECRET 0
Distribution :
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