MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300040042-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 23, 2007
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: February 25, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved-For-Release 2007/04/24': _CI P$3B01027R000300040042-8
? SECRET
? 25X1
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
DDI-1578-82/1
25 February 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM : National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America
1. Attached is a copy of the Latin America Warning Assessment based
upon our discussion of 17 February 1982.
2. The next warning meeting will be held on 22 March 1982 at 1015
hours in room 7D64 CIA headquarters with the following tentative agenda
and requested brief oral presentations (2-3 minutes) by department/agency
or individual as indicated:
El Salvador
- Election forecast, implications; international participation (INR/Romero)
- Guerrilla strengths/weaknesses; post-election strategy (DIA)
Guatemala
- Post-election political prospects/trends (CIA 25X1
- Guerrilla strengths, activities, and plans (CIA
Brazil
- Government and military in ns? efforts to "stack the deck" prior
to November elections (CIA
- Recent military deliveries, possibility of transfers to Nicaragua
(CIA4I 25X1
- Cuban support for Central American insurgents; strategy and
recommendations (CIII
SECREj
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040042-8
 Approved For Release 2007/011~Eq
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Nicaragua
- Export of subversion; military buildup -- recent trends and implications
25X1
- Status of transition government; potential for armed violence; size
and disposition of armed left and right (CIA/ 25X1
3. Attached is a copy of the assessment and two tables on guerrilla
and security force levels. These numbers will be updated monthly or on a
more timely basis through the publication of a new, coordinated number in
the National Intelligence Daily or by sending written justification for a
change to the NIO. We will then distribute the new figure(s) to appropriate
analysts in the community for concurrence. Please notify us if you wish to
be made part of this process.
(CIA
Costa Rica
4. As is the usual practice, will need the names of 1
individuals attending the next warning ease call her by noon,
19 March 1982 25X1
L6 e r. .ue / LL. 7
Constantine C. Menges
Att: as statement
Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040042-8
 Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040042-8
Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040042-8