MONTHLY WARNING MEETING - FEBRUARY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300040040-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 17, 2007
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: February 22, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/05/18: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040040-0
Approved For Release 2007/05/18: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040040-0
 Approved For Release 2007/05/18: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300040040-0
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
22 February 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM: Charles E. Waterman
National Intelligence Officer for NESA
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Meeting - February 1982
1. Southern Lebanon. An Israeli attack-on Southern Lebanon remains
likely, and its probability accumulates over time. Prime Minister Begin
is clearly concerned about United States reaction to such an attack, and
also wishes to ensure unified Israeli public opinion prior to undertaking
it. It is the consensus of all agencies represented that a direct terrorist
attack with Israeli casualities would suffice to trigger the invasion.
Syria wo u ly not engage the Israelis massively as a result of the
attack.
2. Syria. The situation in Hama does not seem to portend a general
breakdown of law and order in Syria. The city is isolated, and the recent
uprising has largely been brought under control by the security forces at
present. There were apparently desertions by some military personnel during
the Hama uprising, but not of integral units.
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4. Iran-Ira War. Recent activity in this war has entailed small
Iraqi attacks and perhaps a major battle with as yet unknpwn results in
the Bustan area which succeeded in retaking some territory
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. 5. Sub-Sahara. Both Polisario and Morocco are planning to intensify
operations in the Saharan war. P 1' io is seekina further Libyan
and Morocco is drawing up plans 25X1
Conspicuous United States involvement with 25X1
Morocco's military 1 s causing gradual deterioration in our relations
with Algeria. 25X1
6. Libya and the United States Sixth Fleet. A number of reports have
indicated that Libya will attack any United States fleet units operating
south of the 32'30" latitude line in the Bay of Sidra. It is the consensus
of all agencies represented that these reports are credible, and that
Qadhafi will regard his action as defensive in nature when executed. 25X1
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 Approved For Release 2007/05/18: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040040-0
Approved For Release 2007/05/18: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040040-0