WARNING REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300040020-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 23, 2007
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: May 20, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300040020-2
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
DDI #4186-82/1
20 May 1982
THROUGH : National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM : L. Gray Cowan
National Intelligence Officer for Africa
SUBJECT : Warning Report: Sub-Saharan Africa
1. Acti nested: None; the attached report is for your
information.
2. Background: Community representatives and specialists met on
18 May 1982 with the NIO/AF as chairman. The attached report has not
been coordinated with the other participants, but is being circulated to
them. If they feel their views have been misinterpreted, or if they have
significant additional concerns, I'll report further to you. (U)
Attachment
DDI #4186-82
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DDI (4186-82
20 May 1982
CHAD
WARNING REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040020-2
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While nothing has fundamentally changed in the Chad situation, analysts
believe that the GUNT is closer to collapse than at any time in the recent
past and that Goukouni is coming closer to requesting Libyan aid to retain his
position. The warning note concerns the short time frame in which possible
future disturbances may take place. The PKF will depart June 30 leaving the
way open either for a free-for-all for t ntrol of the central governmerpt Al
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leaving Habre free to attack N'Diamena. "
MAURITIUS
Analysts believe that some degree of violence is inevitable in the post-
election period no matter which party wins on June 1.1. Threats have been made
against American embassy personnel and in the event of an MMM victory we
cannot count on police protection from Muslim extremists. An MMM victory
which brings Jugnauth to the prime ministership may reduce the more radical
position taken by the MMM in the pre-election period. The C arty under
Duval may also be the focus of violence against Westerners. 25X1
SOUTHERN AFRICA
Analysts emphasized that while they see no immediate indication of
increased South African raids by South African ground forces into Angola, May
through August is the traditional time for increased South African activity
while the South African army is at maximum strength. There are reports that
the SADF ma be organizing a special strike force against SWAPO bases in
Angola. I 25X1
It is still uncertain how many African leaders will attend the OAU summit
in Tripoli in August. There is an increasing possibility that the OAU itself
may split with a radical rump being formed under Qadhafi's leadership. The
moderates in turn could concentrate about the Franco-African summit in Zaire
in October. We may have a repetition of the competition between moderate and
radical Af ri roups already seen in the early sixties before the formation
of the OAU. 25X1
MOZAMBIQUE
Soviet General Yepishev, Chief Political Commissar of the Armed Forces,
is slated to visit Mozambique at the end of this month. We don't know the
exact reason for his visit, but he may be coming to survey the effectiveness
of the Mozambique military and Machel's control of the armed forces. Such a
visit seems to fit Yepishev's missions to other countries he has visited in
the past. II 25X1
SECRET
Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83BO1027ROO0300040020-2
 Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040020-2
Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040020-2