NFAC RESPONSIBILITY FOR INDICATIONS AND WARNING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200120001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 22, 1978
• Content Type: MF

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SENDER WILL CHEC": CLASSIFI/ ION TOP AND BOTTOM
UNCLASSIFIED COr4t IIDENTIAL SECRET
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
i
Action Staff
g j
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Mr. Walsh
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Mr. Lehman
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Dr. Stevens
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ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
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INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
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Remarks: This memo was requested by Mr. Bowie for
his breakfast meeting with the DCI 23
February. has seen.
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM: NAME. ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
1 77-71
23 Feb
UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL
SECRET
u61
Ran NO. 237 Use previous editions
1-67
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 CONF IDENTIAL
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
NFAC 78-709
22 February 1978
MEMORANDUM FOR: Robert R. Bowie
Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
National Intelligence Officer for
Conventional Forces
SUBJECT NFAC Responsibility for Indications and Warning
After having discussed the NFAC role in Warning with principal
interested officers in NFAC, I would, in brief, make the following
points :
--NFAC and the DDI have been involved in Indications and
Warning in va in e rees since 1951. From 1951 to 1974 t e
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence or the Director of the
Office of Current Intelligence (OCI) chaired the Watch Committee,
which published weekly reports on the status of t Fe -world situation
and those developments which posed potential imminent threat to
US national security. In 1974 the Watch Committee was dissolved
and the Strategic Warning Staff (SWS) created. This is a DCI
staff which serves the Director's Special Assistant for Indications
and Warniniz. (Until his tra f r to EUCOM, this Special Assistant
w There is presently no Special
Asses ant. e AC has placed three analysts on the SWS.
--The formal Indications and Warning mechanisms of the
National Intelli ence Communit , inclu in the SWS have ocused
on the key potential threats to US security such as the threat
of Soviet attac- k, a !North Korean attar- or war in the-Middle Fast.
These warning topics are considered to be Warning wit a capital
"W"). The rest of the warning problem (i.e., conflict in Africa) is
considered to be "warning" (little "w") and are handled through
special working groups as appropriate--for example, the present
work on the Horn.
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E2 IMPDET
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CONFIDENTIAL
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--NFAC is heavil involved in the study of the Indications
and Warnin ro lem. NFAC has heavy representation in the D A-
sponsore Warning Improvement Study Program (WISP) which is
currently the prime effort in the National Intelligence Community
to develop methodologies and organizational structures to handle
Indications and Warning and crisis management. NFAC is represented
on all seven of the WISP subcommittees, and chairs two of them.
Considerable time and effort has been devoted to support of the
WISP effort and NFAC has played a major role in developing the
methodologies and indications lists for WISP.
--The problem of NFAC's relationship to the NITC with regard
to Ind cai tions and -Warning is a subset of the larger problem a
NFAC interface with NITC across the board. There is wide agreement
that NFAC has a principal role in developing requirements and
priorities for Indications and Warning and crisis management.
There is less certainty about the degree to which NFAC should
perform a day-to-day "watch" function. My thought is that the
Ops Center should be manned and trained to participate in that
function with other centers--but not necessarily be prime to that
function. NITC, of course, will be a critical component in the
mechanism to control national intelligence collection during
periods of crisis, but cannot play the leading role in the day-
to-day "watch" function or the development of crisis management
collection strategies.
--The DCI has made clear his intentions to rationalize the
Indications and Warnin function within the National Intelligence
Commune It is not yet clear what roles the various agencies
would play. The Defense Intelligence Agency has, over the years,
resisted efforts of the DCI to interpose himself between the
military intelligence community and its principal consumer, the
JCS. There is clear agreement, however, that NFAC has a major role
in planning, overseeing and coordinating the Community Indications
and Warning and crisis management unction. The major issue remains
to be the extent to which NFAC will be involved in the day-to-day
Indications and Warning "watch" function. There are varying views
within the NFAC on what should be the formal NFAC responsibility
for normal Indications and Warning "watch" operations. This, I
believe, is a question for further discussion.
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0 6 FEB 197$
MEMORANDUM FOR:. Director, Current Reporting Group's
Director, Office of Regional and Political Analysis
Director, Office of Strategic Research
Director, Office of Economic Research'
Chien Publications and Presentations Group'
Director, Office of Central Reference
Director, Office of Geographic and Cartographic Research'
Director, Office. of Imagery Analysis
Director, Office of Scientific Intelligence
Director, Office of Weapons Intelligence
Director, CIA Operations Center
Chief , Requirements and Evaluation Staff ~
FROM . : Paul .V Walsh
SUBJECT-
Associate Director-Management
National Foreign Assessment Center
`Crisis Management" and Agencyi`l ask Forces
1.? The last thorough examination of CIA procedures to provide intelligence
2. It is obvious that these papers need revision in light of the
organizational and personnel changes since October, 1976. We have recommended
to the DOCI that an Agency or interagency group be convened soon to update our
crisis management procedures.
3. In the meantime, we must be prepared in the NFAC to proceed along
the lines of the draft checklist of 6 October 1976. The principal change in
procedures will require the substitution of ORPA for OCI when we consider the
office responsible for organizing a CIA analytical task force,
attached for your review..
support in the management of national crises was done by a Crisis Management
Committee chaired by Cord Meyer, then Special Assistant to the DDCI. Two draft
papers, Outline of Intelligence Community Actions During Crises and Checklist
of Intelligence Community Action During Crises, produced by that committee are
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Subject: Crisis Management and Agency Task Forces
4. Pending some action by the DDCI to revise these procedures, I have
AT asked to review our NFAC arrangements to support the DCI in
crisis situations. Office directors, the Operations Center, and the RES are
requested to send a representative to discuss this checklist on Wednesday,
8 February, at 4:15 PM in 7 E 62. Separate meetings with the NIO s and other
Agency representatives will be scheduled later, as appropriate.
Attachment:
.as .stated
Information:
National Intelligence Officer, Conventional Forces
National Intelligence Officer, Strategic Programs
National Intelligence Officer, Political-Economy
National Intelligence Officer, Nuclear Proliferation
National Intelligence Officer, Special Studies
National Intelligence Officer, USSR-Eastern Europe
National Intelligence Officer, Western Europe
National Intelligence Officer, Near East and South Asia
National Intelligence Officer, Africa
National Intelligence Officer, East Asia
National Intelligence Officer, China
National Intelligence Officer, Latin America
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 0120001-2
MFAC 4.74-78
MEMORANDUM FOR: Ambassador Carlucci
Robert R. Bowie
Director,. National Foreign Assessment Center
Crisis Management
1. Crisis management is a topic that needs to be addressed soon from
the standpoint of intelligence support to the President and cabinet officers
in crisis situations. There is some ambiguity about the specific role of
the DCI in those situations as well as -the support he requires from the
Intelligence Community and the Agency.
2. The attached papers (Outline of Intelligence Community Actions
During Crises, draft 6 October 1976, and Checklist of Intelligence Community
Action During Crises, draft 6 October 1976) are the result of careful
deliberations by an Agency committee. But..py..:concern .is..that-no furthers.::- :..:
.year ana a na it ago.::' .: -
-My personal knowledge of what - has.been done to study this problem .
dWfid&W
0 6 F EB 1978
~'I~-d#EbiF Ft~lOh1~ :~D8
is, of course, limited by the short time I have been here. I did.note that
the last chairman of a committee to study this issue was a Special Assistant
to the DDCI. My judgment is that the subject deserves your attention..
4. Some of the issues requiring discussion, if not immediate resolution
CIA task force arrangements to support DCI
in crisis management situations
Interagency or National Task Force procedures
to marshal-Community resources in support of
DCI and conflicts with departmental
responsibilities . .. .
Role of National Intelligence Tasking Center
CIA-relationship with State and Defense in
either single agency or interagency task force
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 and the Community. My representative on this matter will be ST
and he is available to provide you the background of the problem it yo
to discuss it,
SubJect_ Crisis Manageet V
-ENCLOSURE TREAT AS UNCLASSIFIED
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- CIA procedures to support DCI in PRC and
SCC roles during crisis situations
- Procedures for moving from crisis management
situations (Korea tree-cutting exercise,.
October War, evacuation from Beirut) to major,
emergency action: procedures such as displacing
intelligence support to follow President to
alternate command sites.',..
5? We are reviewing our procedures in NFAC to follow the checklist of
October, 1976, and I am confident that we can do a creditable job of providing
-support to you and the DCI in the event of a-crisis. But, I. will feel better
about this after we have considered the roles of other elements of the Agency
Attachments:
as stated
Robert owie
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DRAFT
6 October 1976
OUTLINE OF INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ACTIONS DURING CRISES
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ALERT
A Initiate CRITIC Reporting
B Notify Senior Officials and Intelligence Components
C Issue Alert Memorandum
FOCUS
A Designate Principal NIO for Crisis ?
B. Review and Adjust Collection Activities
Community -Crisis "Collection Coordinator
2. Collection Program Managers
3. Js sue Crisis Collection Guidance
4. Prepare Status Report
C Review and Adjust Analysis and Reporting
1. Identify and Retask Analytic Activities
Consider Need for:
NISR and Other Special-Crisis Reports
b. Community Analytic Task Force
Agency Task Force
3. Identify Special Crisis Reporting Requirements and
Issue Guidance
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D Participate in Crisis Planning and Decision Groups
1. WSAG
2. State Interagency Crisis Task Force
JCS Crisis Task Force (CAT/NTFs etc. )
E Review and Adjust Intelligence Support Activities
Communications
2. Facilities
3.- Personnel
RESPONSE -
A Identify and Provide Intelligence for Decision Options
B Advise President and..WSAG
C Inform - - ommu 4ty__o US s, as
D Plan and Implement Community Support for. US Actions
E Monitor Implementation of Community Actions
IV. _ - SUBSIDENCE
A Notify Community of End of Crisis
B Critique Community Performance
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DRAFT
6 October 1976
CHECKLIST OF INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ACTIONS DURING CRISES
NUMBER
- ITEM
I - ALERT
Establish NOIWON Conference (see NOIWON Members
DCID 7/1, Appendix F) and Consult (Chiefs of Operations
Ensure Prompt Delivery of CRITIC NSOC
Reports to Washington Area and U&S
Command Intelligence and !Operations
Centers
IB
on Initial Significance of CRITIC Centers- and Watch._
Reports and Alertin.g Actions = 3ffices
RESPONSIBILITY
'Initiate Crisis Situation Reporting, All Collection and
including CRITIC Reports (Per DCID 7/1) Analytic Components
.notify Senior Officials and
-Intelligence ComYnunity Components
Chiefs of Operations
Centers -
Alert DCI, DDCI, D/DCI/NI, D/DCI/IC, C/CIA/OPS Center
DDI, D/OCI, DDS&T/DO, DDO/DO, O/DDA,
to Crisis Situation
Notif CIA Watch Officers in WHSR, C/CIA/OPS Center
Yi and NMCC of Crisis
Notify FBIS of Crisis Situation and C/CIA/OPS Center
Request Priority Coverage
Alert Appropriate Field Stations and.
Is sue Appropriate Tasking
-- DDO Stations and Bases
DDO Area Division
.Chiefs (on Alert from
DDO/DO, thru O/DDO)
D/OEL
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