NIO MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENTS: JUNE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000100040003-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 20, 2005
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: June 30, 1982
• Content Type: MF

Approved 10 Release 20(?99'
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National, Intelligence Council
DDI #5412-82
30 June 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM :
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT : NIO Monthly Warning Assessments: June
1. The reports on the NIO warning meetings are attached.
2. Comments on warning situations.
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b. USSR:
(1) Brezhnev's political authority has declined,
increasing his vulnerability to pressure for early retire-
ment. Competition between Chernenko and Andropov could
bring succession maneuvering to a head in the next few
months, possibly while Brezhnev is away on vacation. If
Brezhnev's physical condition has suffered another setback,
this might impair both his ability to resist pressure
to retire and to control the succession process.
c. El Salvador-Nicaragua:
(1) The Sandinista regime may view the coordinated
Salvadoran-Honduran military operation against the
insurgents in northern Morazan as a potentially serious
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DDI #5412-82
SUBJECT: NIO Monthly Warning Assessments: June 30 June 1982
threat that requires a strong response. The apparent
growth in the hard-liners' influence in Managua increases
the chances for such a reaction. The regime, for example,
may order attacks on anti-Sandinista camps in Honduras.
(2) Growing anti-Sandinista activity may also produce
a significant hardening in Sandinista policy toward
El Salvador and Honduras. The regime may soon proclaim a
"Socialist Republic" as a means of attracting greater Soviet
and Cuban assistance.
e. Somalia:
(1) President Siad's position is eroding in the face of
discontent in'the military, tribal unrest, and an economic
crisis. His precarious regime may be ousted in the next
three months.
All Portions of this Memorandum
are Classified SECRET
SECRETI
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Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000100040003-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000100040003-0
Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000100040003-0