SHORT-TERM ARGENTINE INTENTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000100030033-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2004
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: July 8, 1982
• Content Type: MF

S
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Approver Release 2004AT CIA-RDP83BB27R000100030033-8
National Intelligence Council
8 July 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
25X1
25X1
THROUGH
FROM
SUBJECT
ice airman, National Intelligence Council
Special Assistant for Warning
Short-term Argentine Intentions
1. President Bignone's government intends to maintain the
de facto ceasefire with Britain, but it cannot, for domestic political
reasons, accede to London's demand for a formal statement acknowledging
a cessation of hostilities. Foreign Minister Aguirre Lanari stated
publicly on 5 July that "There is in fact a ceasefire by Argentina
in the South Atlantic, but that does not mean that we are giving up
the defense of the 100-year-old rights." The highest priority of
the Argentine leaders is to protect their claim to sovereignty over
the Falklands, and they are therefore unwilling to take any steps,
such as a formal cessation of hostilities, that in their view would
prejudice this claim. Army Commander General Nicolaides told a
military audience on 3 July that recovery of the islands, using "the
most appropriate measures possible," would continue to be the main
objective of Argentine foreign policy.
2. The Argentines apparently are confident that the British
eventually will release the remaining Argentine prisoners of war,
lift the maritime restrictions, and end economic sanctions without
securing a formal declaration ending hostilities. This calculation
probably is correct because the Thatcher government is searching
for a way to end the impasse and to return the last 590 prisoners.
According to press reports, London is considering a unilateral
declaration on the cessation of hostilities, assuming that Argentina
would not challenge such an initiative. In a move to facilitate a
British declaration, the Argentines on 7 July released a Harrier
pilot, their only British prisoner.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83B
 Approved Foroease 2004/12/2ZECf.TRDP83BO1021WO0100030033-8
DDI #5624-82
SUBJECT: Short-term Argentine Intentions 8 July 1982
3. The Argentine government apparently does not intend to take
early action to bring the Beagle Channel dispute to a head. Although
Argentina has scores to settle with the Chileans over their assistance
to the British during the Falklands conflict, the Bignone government
does not seem to be under any immediate domestic pressure to provoke
a test of strength with Chile. Army leaders appear to see no alter-
native but to proceed with their pledge of 22 June to lead a "short-
term transition government" aimed at restoring civilian political
rule "by the early months of 1984."
4. Argentine policy on the dispute with Chile, however, may be
influenced more heavily by political infighting within the Army than
policy with respect to the Falklands. The state of affairs in the
Army is too uncertain to allow confident long-term judgments. There
is great bitterness in the officer corps over Argentina's defeat and
strong sentiment for punishing those senior generals who are responsible
for the debacle. Army politics could still generate an upheaval in
the senior command that might impel General Nicolaides to provoke a
conflict with Chile as a means of defending his position and protect-
ing the Army's political primacy.
25X1
All Portions of this Memorandum
are Classified SECRET
-2-
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000100030033-8
 i , a Approved For4pease 2004/12/225 #tDP83BO102r00100030033-8
DDI #5624-82
SUBJECT: Short-term Argentine Intentions 8 July 1982
Distribution:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - SA/IS
1 - ER
1 - VC/NIC /
1 - NIO/W Chrono
1 - SA/NIO/W
1 - DDI Registry
-3-
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000100030033-8