NIO/W CONTRIBUTION TO THE WATCH COMMITTEE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000100030020-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2004
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: July 28, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Approvoor Release 2004/1 /bgR1 elA-RDP83,0027R000100030020-2
28 July 1982
NIC/W Contribution to the Watch Committee
Iran- Iraq
The fourth and possibly decisive Iranian attempt to break through Traci
defenses northeast of Basrah is imminent. If this attack fails, the Tehran regime
may attempt to create a diversion by sharply intensifying political and perhaps
military pressures on Kuwait and other Gulf states to end their assistance to
Iraq.
South Africa-Angola
--The continuing South African military buildup in. northern Namibia. and
southern Angola foreshadows another major incursion into Angola similar to the
offensive in August-September 1981. Foreign Minister Botha has warned that South
Africa would be compelled to launch a large-scale attack into Angola if its
deadline of mid-August for completing negotiations on independence for Namibia
and a withdrawal of Cuban forces from Angola is not met. Prime Minister Botha
appears determined to proceed with an "internal solution" in Namibia in the
absence of an agreement in the next month.
--Southhh African intentions have contributed to Angolan President dos Santos's
shift toward the hardline, pro-Soviet faction in the ruling party. The central
committee has purged a leading member of the party's black nationalist faction
who had opposed the Soviet and Cuban presence in Angola and favored a rapprochement
with Savimbi and closer ties with the West.
Nicaragua-Honduras
The chances of major Nicaraguan cross-border operations against anti.-Sandinista
rebel camps in Honduras have increased. Such operations might result in direct
clashes with Honduran forces and fuel. a sharp military escalation between the two
countries.
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Ethiopia-Somalia
--President Siad's declining domestic base of support will encourage the
Ethiopians to maintain military pressure on. border posts and villages inside
Somalia. Addis Ababa ap?spears confident that Siad is increasingly vulnerable
to military mutinies and coup attempts.
--Attempts by Siad to;retali.ate by expanding Somali. incursions into the Ogaden
might impel Ethiopia to escalate its military involvement in Somalia and to
establish a dissident Somali government within Somali territory.
--Moscow sees an opportunity to settle old accounts with Siad. Soviet media
have supported claims of support for Somali dissidents and a Soviet official has
said Moscow will not attempt to restrain the Ethiopians.
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