SIG MEETING: CENTRAL AMERICA, MONDAY, MARCH 16, 1981

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00140R000100090022-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2011
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: March 14, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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MA-e. o. 1 l1lDlrrl3 .
Enders
March 16, 1981
'Participants of SIG/Central.Amsrica'
L. Paul'Bremer, III, Executive Sscrs
sic Meetingz Central America, Monday,
The attached paper on Nicaragua is for discussion,
Francis J. West, Assistant 8acratary of Dotes"
(TSA) (Attentiont Captain yredarick)
JCS - Lt. General John Pustay (Attention Dig.: General
DOD .. Frank Carlucci, Deputy Secretary of Defense -..
Granger)
NBC - Richard V. Allen
VP's OFPICS - Admiral Murphy
At 1Wt*nt:
_As stated
'7T
GDS /17
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ThU rsday, March 19, 1981.
at the March 16 SIG to be chaired by Judge Clark with a
view to preparing the issue for NBC consideration on
CIA
 NSC PAPER ON NICARAGUA
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t'Jtt
now do we proceed with Nicaraguan assistance?
BACR+GUOUND
the Salvadoran insurgents probably continues- sunnnrts
Bl Salvador troa Nicaragua since ?ebruary 1. However,.
LL- .1 -1-? 1 & ----- -- -- - - ? - - - -
That* is no hard evidence of arms arriving to
countraos,:stockpiling, and planning future auppoxt_
?~~,~o~...=rasping Salvadorans, operations in third
Tba intelligence, agencies are oreaarina an assaggsnt
overland., shipments from Honduran stocks are cited
Our actions must accord with the law. if
there is conclusive proor that, the Government - of Nicara-
qua is currentl 'abetting violence in other. countries.,
a'detera as on must be ;made. If the evidence is
less than''conelusive there is discretion' to decide
whether Or not to Bake a determination depending on .
wnicn cor. distributed separately.
KEY COW IOID TIGNB'
counterproductive. We need tine to develop government
forces in R1 Salvador; a formal cut-off of U.S. aid
would eliminate the leverage provided by the threat
of a cut-off and could load to accelerated infiltration
into E1 Salvador, even infiltration of combat personnel.
A U.S. aid cut-off would weaken private sector
and other non-Communist forces within Nicaragua, poo-
sibly fatally.
We would also 1; !to to Continue the operation
of our Embassy in Nicaragua so that our intelligence
assets can be strengthened. We must be concerned
with h. sally ..? ems,,. -..~.
the-- standard - of evidence applied.
-- A confrontation iith Nicaragua now could be
SL~;4ZET
CDD 3/13/27
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knaYly, a confrontation with $icaregua and
with out suropean and Latin allies. Mexico, venexu*ls
our-dialogue and assistance to Nicaragua. They either
believe there is still hope for a non-communist Nicara-
9ua or want to avoid trouble with their public opinion
actions that.;-show these countries they are wrong.
As the Military buildup of Nicaragua's own forces
continues, we shall eventually have to react regardless
of whether or not Nicaragua is arming others. We
cannot permit Nicaragua to become another Cuba, armed
to the teeth and potentially intervening in:-other
countries. whi.1o; we continue to provide substantial
.public and worldwide opinion -- to delay out reaction
on this point until the buildup is clearer and until
we have;;a mor?.,.coiaprehensive Nicaragua strategy.-
The interagency group has developed four -options
to try;,to deal-.with all the above considerations.
..xTHt INTELLIC-l "' '" ,? ENT DOES NOT PROVIDE
CONCLU$XVE PROO! i'",`'* rz,- IS CURRENTLY ASSTPING
VIOLENCZ, ALL: FOUR ('?;` "i O# ARE AVAILABLE:
i'. Postponement o? n Determination on ESF _pendin
coon res. Resume mTtca Pie n of PL-480
million remains eusoen a ) or Ross v development
assistance 10 mti.ton remains sus noea, Weimer .
PL-480 nor eve opaent ezar s once are subject to the
statutory determination. Would avoid a confrontation,
and provide time to obtain better evidence of Nicaragua's
~- intentions. In the interim, a limited amountt of
. _-_ PL-460 ($3 million) would show our interest in Maintain- .
ing cod relations. Resumption of. assistance would
be difficult ,to defend in Congress.
2.'stron9 Statement, no Determination. A strong
public rr a ement woul ,... - made Indicating that the
Government of Nicaragua had supported violence in
El-Salvedor but that such activities were now reduced
or stOd. Ne would further state that, nevertheless,
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:assistain 64 would be hell' 'in suspense until steps -are
__.. `-?-M- and -that a formal determination would be made If there''-
-'were a reversal of recent improvements. Some PL-480
($3 million) would be made available in about three
weeks. -It favorable trends continue some development
assistance might. follow. Repayment of previous loans
:_would not be required and it would not be necessary
to use 614 authority to waive repayment-or subsequently
an additional testing period.
IF THE INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT PROVIDES CONCLUSIV
PROOF THAT THE GRN 10 CURRENTLY ABETTING VIOLENCE,
ONLY TEE FOLLOWING TWO O 1 NS ARE AVAILABLE:
3. Straight Determination' hake a"detersal notion
that the Gin involved in terrorism, formally suspend
assistance, and call outstanding ESP loans.-:'
_ . Would probably force an isn~rediate confrontation.
Does not buy time for our other objectives. Would
be popular with some in Congress, but would damage.
our ability to get wide support for our Salvador policy.
4.tNusnced Determination. A series ofsteps-
--. would bo. woe a ou wi Lb the Congress. mnd the Vicara.
9 ans in advance of thtr i r comprehensive -announcement
e elements are: ?.
-- a determination that Nicaragua is involved
In abetting violence, worded to concentrate on the.
past more than the present and to recognize recent
improvement;
-- use of provision 614 authority to avoid
making previously disbursed EST funds immediately-
repayable; this would be presented to Nicaragua as'
major concession and to congress as the price of
buying times a finding that the waiver is important
to V.B. national security interests is required as
well as prior congressional consultations,
-- announcement that, if favorable trends
continue, PL-480 will be restarted in about three
weeks; this is another major carrot for continued'
Nicaraguan cooperrt?4" - **- humanitarian aspects would
be stressed with Coe-..} ' . t.. j
SECRET
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It will expire at the end of FY 81 unless coonaoted
by the Congress. It requires the President to tecminate
ESP assistance to Nicaragua and makes all outstanding
ES? loans di and as able immediately if t e preset
etera rifts "that the Governme t of Nicaragua ... is
aiding, abetting, or supporting acts of violence or
terrorism in other countries...." (emphasis added) -
S.
aa~ s. avn -P.7.aj LJ va. ..+.a -- - - 7-- ---
A A (text attachedy was originally enacted
s
1
, a
risen e , ___.-
196
in the Special Central American Assistance Act of 1913.
The legislative hi,rrt,ry of the provision indicates
b t 6-bb Pr sidsnt ha$ 1ii cretion as to the nature and
~
.
a
T. e
Aft raft of roof;'to ~e rc? uire He is w out scre ion
M V.
an mu make a determination only if there is conclusiv*
t
l
sup of
.evidence that the iiu* t providing water sa
as opposedi'to'-moral or politicol suppor to acts of
violftnc..'in- a, foreign c untry.
Tha plain language of the statute rovides for
a determination only soh' re the evidence supports a finding
-
--
a the RNA -9 s eu oor~t i n amass of violence at the time
We determination WE ire i ng e. s s consistent.
with the view a t o purpose of the statute is to
deter present and future involvement in arms traffic.
rather than simply to puiniash 'Nicaragua for -past .activities-
in-this area without re,,J nrd' to current GRN actions.
nevertheless" the r I A *,s Want a~ay find the GRU to
be supporting v1il:.yaa41%j Or, 11A11 4Q moaning the stitute,
ass on past ac'Cfv-- t i t a if he considers those activities
To-evidence a cons suing pattern of support for acts
of violence. {There is -on inherent time lag in intel-
ligence reports and therefore-the statute cannot reason-
ably be interpreted as requiring a determination based
on up-to-the-moment data.) On the other hand, if he
is not persuaded that the evidence conclusively estab-
?-dishes current GRN support for violence he would not
be obligated to make a determination irrespective of
the degree of proof of sat GRi1 activities.
Given the judgmental factors necessarily-involved
in deciding whether or not a determination should be
made under this provision, a certain degree of CosAgres-
sional criticism is likely irrespective of the decision.
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Per a&cer a farther test#
, development ass i rtancs co
l
u
d be again considerirel.
-.. ?. that he would~subsequ
dicate
pr
W
d
ently
esxaAine
sit
to ?N If what M1,- . - s ration
the
to rtatart ES? assistanceonai security Interests
and otAer issues rarrantsa vvjn9 on support for violence
that it-is im a further 614 detareinatiort
portent to U 8 r-ati
This option. is d
jevliona in. Can, ...,_ theca is Serious
author ~-~-..~^~??~ ~; :.act ion 614 Which is
a valuable
ity - in many other c~~nt.~xts am
While winning time for ouneot.h
to l .1th the ercobjective, by Drov1JI,.e
assistance in moderAtn
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Foreign Assistance Act of
of th
e
Section 614 Sad?
1961, as amended (text attached) is dent inated a. `Special
Authocity." It provides the President the important
extraordinary flexib"lir to covide assistance to ford n
countries "without r~?Var to a of er rov sloes o
the -c~.` It bias trad:tiondlIy en use to avo ?
application of outdated provisions or the application
of statutory restrictions of a general nature to specific
ly
i ~~
elea
were
h
ta*o
~
r
eyi
circumstances to which t:
Se
?
to apply. For exaaw plo ,
reopening the Sues Canal
t in
t
E
.
o
gyp
provide assistance
sed to in effect reprogras fan6a
i
be
ng u
from Egypt to El. Sa va or.
914 (s) W$:4 - a~sended this year to provide :,.:
i
on
Sect
itional authority to waive statutory
,the President add
~restri'c.tions? under the Aria1 Export Control Act. This
amendment was oota3.raeu wal ",_ --
? that Section d 14 Via} _ author itv would be use pro en - y. -
ss has also established. a ?requirema-dt
The Congre
nt to eac~e in formal consultations
id
'
e
Pres
fort the
s ng? s aut or ty.
t
~
a
o
or
s.pr
with the on re
Sec on G a authority could technically be used to.-
of Section 533(1) to call""'
nt
s
overcome the requireme
outstanding loans to Nicaragua and to resume Est amsis-
tance at some later date. However, it would be extxemel
difficult to juntifv so uainq it to override a recently enacte pprovis iu+v t:n.i- . wti .:featly intended toproduce
a specific . Such a departurer frcountcy om the under
traditional
cicoumstan tance$es
uses of Section 614(a)would be challenged in the Con ress,.
or severs y restr a
i
t
i
e
na
m
by those who would like to el
under this sect on.
t
i
i
y
~
uthor
the president's broad
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