CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO: THE PRESENT OPPORTUNITY AND DANGER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00140R000100060010-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2007
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: June 8, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For ele~se 2007/04/02: CIA-RDP83BOO14R00100060010-8
of D
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June 8, 1981
CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO: THE PRESENT OPPORTUNITY AND DANGER
I. TRENDS
Overview - three futures El Salvador is the turning point
-extreme right/extreme left/centrist coalition
-time urgency--opportunity for success and failure
-three arenas of policy:
regional/transnational/domestic
Nicaragua
-consolidation of communist power
-building of military "shield"
-democratic groups still exist and are viable
El Salvador
-three forces contending for the future:
both extremes help each other
-requirements of a balanced policy - nearly met
-support for center and existing land reform essential
-more vigorous action against extreme left and extreme right
-establish objectives and provide resources to meet them
within the next 8 months to a year (there will be no second chance)
Guatemala
-partnership with moderates possible
-extreme right violence helps the extreme left and prevents U.S. support
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II. NEW DIMENSION: THE ALIGNMENT OF TRANSNATIONAL FORCES WITH THE EXTREME LEFT,
1/Cuba, regional communist networks, Soviet bloc
2/Palestinian extremists and radical Arab states
3/Social Democrats
4/Mexico
WITH THE CENTRIST COALITION,
1/U.S.
2/Christian Democrats/Germany,Venezuela
3/Several friendly governments
III. IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY
In the Region:
-Reasonable but adequate levels of intelligence and military help to
defeat the extreme left/substantially defeat them within 9-12 months
-offensive covert action against Cuban managed networks
-assertive liberalization of Nicaragua before the military shield is complete
-improved collection/neutralization vs. extreme right a coherent effort
In the Transnational Arena:
-pressure on Cuba through the region, Africa, Middle East--a range of
actions from: truthful information to discredit myths; encouragement of
defections, exposure of operations,...arms to opponents
-publicize Palestinian/radical Arab role;covert action against assets
-Social Democrats: coherent strategy of political persuasion including
identification of party/government moderates, systematic briefings,
raising of issues to head of government (e.g., Schmidt)
-Mexico: political candor at the summit; political persuasion with a
selected group of leaders listened to by President Lopez Portillo;
consider revealing Soviet/Cuban covert action out of Mexico and versus
Mexico
-strengthen positive transnational groups: Christian Democrats, AFL-CIO, AFILD
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In the Domestic Arena:
- improved communications factual and regular on these themes:
-balanced view of present social/economic context
-reforms/
-centrist groups
-correct description of the extreme left violence and its purposes
-correct description of the extreme right violence and its purposes
-Cuban covert action, especially cooperation with Palestinian radicals
Approved For Release 2007/04/02 : CIA-RDP83BOO14OR000100060010-8