NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 1 AUGUST 1980

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82T00466R000400020003-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 31, 2012
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: August 1, 1980
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/05: CIA-RDP82T00466R000400020003-5
Director of
Top Seeret----
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
1 August 1980
., S@Ciot
1 August 1980
COPY 2 3 5
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Situation Report
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .
Briefs and Comments
West
Germany: Renewed Terrorism Feared. . . . . . . . . .
3
Belgi
um: TNF Decision Deferred . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4
Israe
l: The Jerusalem Issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
North
Yemen - Saudi Arabia: Pressing for Funds. . . . . .
6
USSR:
Anti-US Commentary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9
UK:
Strike Aircraft Grounded . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
South Africa: Black Labor Unrest. . . . . . .. . . . . . .
10
Israel: Coalition Defection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11
Top Secret
1 August 1980
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hostage trials.
Top Secret
Iranian hardliners appear to be laying the groundwork for
held under its jurisdiction.
The Iranians are publicizing the case of an American
journalist--Mrs. Cynthia Dwyer, who was arrested last
May--probably to test US reaction to trials and to arouse
public support for espionage trials for the hostages as
well. Mrs. Dwyer is charged with espionage by "Tehran's
Central Committee Guards," but it is unclear how much
authority this group has to determine her fate. The
Prosecutor General's office states that she is not being
decide on trials of at least some of the hostages.
The Iranian legislature could take weeks to select
a prime minister, but once the legislature does debate
the hostage issue, we continue to believe it will probably
Top Secret
1 August 1980
25X1
25X1
25X1 I
25X1
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Authorities in Bonn are concerned that West German terrorists
may be planning to assassinate a prominent government official.pos_
sibly even Chancellor Schmidt, during the election campaign.
There have been no major actions by West German ter-
rorists for almost two years, and the number of active
terrorists has been severely reduced by a concentrated
police effort. West German authorities, however, expect
the terrorists to stage some sensational action to prove
that they are still a force with which to be reckoned.
Security officials believe the terrorists no longer
have sufficient personnel to kidnap a prominent official
and therefore are more likely to attempt an assassination, 25X1
probably using high explosives that can be detonated
from a distance. A large quantity of explosives and a
device that could be adapted to detonate a bomb from
afar were among the possessions of five female German
terrorists arrested in Paris in early May. According
to the West German press, there also was evidence point-
ing to Schmidt as a possible target.
Though relatively small, the remaining hard core of
West German terrorists is highly experienced and could
probably attempt an assassination in spite of the more 25X1
sophisticated countermeasures of the West German authori-
ties. Public identification of Schmidt as a possible
target should make such an attempt more difficult
may not dissuade the terrorists from trying.
Top Secret
1 August 1980
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Top Secret
The Belgian Government plans to consider cruise missile de-
ployment in September, when chances for a positive decision will
depend largely on the government's ability to secure parliamentary
approval for contentious domestic legislation it deems more im-
the summer recess.
On 30 July the cabinet's foreign policy committee
decided to postpone a decision on cruise missile deploy-
ment. Despite a committee majority in favor of theater
nuclear force modernization, key ministers are sensitive
to the Flemish Socialists' intense opposition and are
reluctant to risk a cabinet break-up over the issue.
Prime Minister Martens' main concern is that parliamen-
tary debate on TNF could disrupt efforts to achieve con-
sensus on regionalization proposals aimed at easing
Belgium's linguistic dispute. Foreign Minister Nothomb,
the Belgian Government's leading advocate of TNF, has
obtained cabinet approval to raise the issue again after
use as leverage.
Prospects for a decision should be marginally better
in the fall. Martens hopes to complete passage of the re-
gionalization legislation, which requires the support of
the Flemish Socialists, before the 9 August summer ad-
journment of parliament. If he is successful, it could
decrease, but not eliminate, the ability of the Social-
ists to use the issue as a lever to delay consideration
of TNF. Martens will also have to deal with many other
contentious issues in the fall--budget cuts, tax policy,
aid to Zaire--which TNF opponents might be tempted to
prospects. The government would then stand a better
chance of surviving a Flemish Socialist withdrawal.
The position of the Francophone Socialists could be
decisive. Their ultimate position on TNF is still un-
clear, although they supported the latest delay. They
would be reluctant to break with their Flemish brethren,
but Nothomb may be able to convince the Francophones to
acquiesce in a deployment decision, especially one con-
ditioned on a periodic alliance review of arms control
Top Secret
1 August 1980
25X1
25X11
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Diplomatic Installations in Jerusalem
Bolivia
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Haiti
Netherlands
Panama
Uruguay
Venezuela
Belgium
France
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden (Consulate)
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
* Special diplomatic representations established
before the creation of Israel; not accredited to any
state.
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ISRAEL: The Jerusalem Issue
The Begin government will continue efforts to strengthen
Israel's claim to sovereignty over a united Jerusalem despite vir-
tually unanimous international opposition to such moves.
In protest against the Knesset's passage on Wednes-
day of a law reaffirming Israel's annexation of Arab East
Jerusalem and against Prime Minister Begin's intention
to move his office to East Jerusalem, Venezuela has in-
formed Israel of its decision to transfer its Embassy from
Jerusalem to Tel Aviv. According to the US Embassy in
Tel Aviv, as many as seven other Latin American states
may follow Venezuela's lead.
Arab reaction thus far to Israel's move has been
predictably critical but restrained. Egyptian Minister
of State for Foreign Affairs Ghali was quoted yesterday
as stressing the importance of continuing the dialogue
with Israel. Cairo, however, has not foreclosed the pos-
sibility of strong action such as suspending once again
the autonomy talks; President Sadat will meet with his
advisers tomorrow night for further talks on the subject.
Some Arab delegates to the UN are pressing for a Secu-
rity Council debate on the issue.
Turkey yesterday recalled its charge in Tel Aviv
for "consultations." France, West Germany, and the
Netherlands have expressed regret over the legislation,
and other West European countries are likely to follow
suit.
Begin's determination to gain control over Jerusalem
remains firm, and he and his hardline coalition will
probably perceive foreign opposition as the result of
pressure from Arab oil-producing states. Begin's resolve
to transfer his office will only be further strengthened
by such opposition.
Opposition Labor Party Chairman Peres earlier this
week charged that the government has been "recruiting the
entire world against Israel" by its declarations of intent
to move Begin's office to East Jerusalem. Several Israeli
newspapers have also voiced misgivings over the handling
of the East Jerusalem issue.
1 August 1980
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0 2 A11
NORTH YEMEN - SAUDI ARABIA: Pressing for Funds
North Yemeni President Salih reportedly is trying to press
Saudi Arabia for funds, in part to help pay for arms from the USSR.
According to a reliable source of the US Embassy
in Sana, Salih is trying to arrange a meeting next week
with Saudi King Khalid to secure Saudi funds for Sana's
first major payment--due in a few weeks. Salih is said
to have received informal assurances that the Soviets
would consider a rescheduling of payments if he accepts
their invitation to visit Moscow. Riyadh may be willing 25X1
to grant Salih's request now to prevent a visit that could
result in the Soviets making further gains in North Yemen.
The Soviets have sought over the past year to in-
crease and secure their ties with North Yemen by expand-
ing their military supply relationship with Sana and are
now looking for a political return on their investment.
They hope an enhanced position in North Yemen, coupled
with their strong position in South Yemen, will give
them some influence over the other Arabian Peninsula
states.
Moscow is likely to try to enlist Salih's support
for its criticism of the increased US military presence
in the Persian Gulf area. In addition, the Soviets will
use the visit to publicize their argument that the US
constitutes the real threat to peace in the region.
Top Secret
1 August 1980
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L~.)A I
USSR: Anti-US Commentary
The US Embassy in Moscow reports that the Soviets
are mounting a propaganda barrage around the US decision
to grant refugee status to 12-year-old Walter Polovchak.
An article in Pravda on Sunday alleged that high-level
US officials had sanctioned the Ukranian youth's "kid-
napping" and that the US had violated "all principles
of morality and humanity" as well as the Helsinki agree-
ment of 1975. Subsequent articles in Pravda and in Literary
Gazette charged the US with using the episode to undermine
detente and held it up as an example of the misfortunes
of Soviet emigrants in the US. If the case is not re-
solved in their favor, the Soviets may continue their 25X1
propaganda attacks until this fall's review session in
Madrid of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in
Europe.
1 August 1980
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UK: Strike Aircraft Grounded
The British Buccaneer strike aircraft withdrawn re-
cently from NATO assignment because of structural defects
account for only a minor part of NATO's total strike
capability in Europe. Most of the Buccaneers--like the
Vulcan bombers, Britain's other major strike aircraft--
have been in service since the late 1950s. Original
planning had called for phasing out the Vulcans by 1983
and the Buccaneers by 1985, both to be replaced by the
Tornado multipurpose aircraft that began entering service
this year. If the Buccaneers cannot be repaired at
reasonable cost, the British may have to replace them
first and retain the Vulcans in service well beyond
1983.
Widespread demonstrations are likely in Johannesburg
today if authorities carry out their threat to fire some
10,000 black municipal employees striking for higher
wages and black union representation. Demonstrating
workers already have interrupted many public services and
have disrupted white commuter traffic. Although violence
so far has been limited, harsh police tactics and the
government's uncompromising position have helped to
Top Secret
1 August 1980
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ISRAEL: Coalition Defection
tion in may.
The resignation yesterday of Justice Minister Tamir,
on the other hand, will not affect Begin's Knesset
strength. By resigning, Tamir probably intends to pre-
pare the way to reenter Begin's Herut Party. Tamir, now
a member of the Democratic Movement, began his political
career in Herut but left the party following a power
struggle with Begin in the 1960s. He presumably will
also no longer serve on Israel's autonomy negotiating
team. His departure may give the Prime Minister greater
room to work out a deal with coalition members opposed
to his plan to reshuffle the defense and foreign ministry
portfolios following Defense Minister Weizman's resigna-
pendent deputies in crucial votes of confidence.
however, because the Knesset is in recess until mid-
October. Even if a special session is called, the Prime
Minister can probably count on the support of some inde-
Prime Minister Begin's coalition lost its Knesset
majority following the defection yesterday of Aqiua Nof,
a member of the small Democratic Movement. Begin's co-
alition now controls only 60 of the 120 Knesset votes.
The government is not in any immediate danger of collapse,
Top Secret
1 August 1980
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Top Secret
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