THE PHILIPPINES: A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 27, 1980
• Content Type: NIE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
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Director of
Central
intenigoice
The Philippines:
A Difficult Road Ahead
National intelligence Estimate
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1 .
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
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NIE 56-1-80
THE PHILIPPINES:
A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Infortn.dien asJilabie AS 11/1 27 !still h I-SO ss
used in the preis.irAtiun (d this
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
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THIS ESTIMATE IS ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE.
THE NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD CONCUMS.
The following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of the
Estimate:
The Central Intelligence Agency, the intelligonce organizations of the Departments of
State and Treasury, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Notional Security
Agency.
Also Participating:
The Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Deportment of the Army
The Director of Naval Intelligence, Deportment of the Navy
The Assistant Chief of Stof I, Intelligence, Deportment of the Air Force
S&( T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
SECRET
CONTENTS
Page
KEY JUDGMENTS
1
DISCUSSION
3
Factors for Concern
3
The Regime's Achievements
Regime Weaknesses
4
Role of the Military
4
Difficult Economic Times Ahead
6
The Problem of Inflation
8
Opposition Forces ... ...
The Role of the Church
8
9
The Communists
10
Opposition Cooperation
The Muslim Rebellion
10
II
Prospects for Stability
11
Implications for the United States
14
lii
5,ECREr
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/20: CIA-RDP82M00786R000104760001-1
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