VALIDITY STUDY ON NIE 53-56 PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN AFGHANISTAN'S INTERNATIONAL POSITION PUBLISHED 10 JANUARY 1956

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020029-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 29
• Publication Date: September 23, 1959
• Content Type: NOTES

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Approved For Reiwpte 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP82M00097ROQ0600020029-3
USIB-D-16, 2/21
23 September 1959
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
Validity Study of NIE 53-56
Probable:De~v?e&loprn.ents in .A.fg hamistan's International Position
Published 10 January 1956
The attached validity study of NIE 53-56 was noted by the
Intelligence Board on 22 September 1959 (USIB-M-58, item 5`c),
25X1
Executive Secretary
Approved For Release 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020029-3
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 SECRET
Approved For Relate 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP82M00097RO%WO0020029-3
USIB-D-16. 2/2.1
23 September 1959
Validity Study of NIE 53-56
Probable Developments in Afghanistan's International Position
Published 10 January 1956
Although NIE 53-56 is three and a half years old, all of its
important estimates remain valid. Many of them are incorporated
in slightly different form in NIE 53-59; e. g. :
Daud is not likely to be ousted in the foreseeable future.
Daud and the Afghan ruling oligarchy almost certainly
desire to avoid Soviet dbm.ination and will probably continue to
seek countervailing Western material aid and political support.
The ability of the Afghans;to egt .pe-(rani-a Sovvzet 4fort1:to
tighten its hold on Afghanistan will depend on the timeliness of
Western offers of countervailing support or Western willingness
to bail them out if their independence is threatened.
The USSR is likely to be content for some time to maintain
close relations with an.d assist a ,"benevolently" neutral Afghanistan
rather than to accomplish a clear-cut takeover either by recognizable
subversion or actual force.
Afghan relations with Pakistan will remain strained.
Approved For Release 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020029-3
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