VALIDITY STUDY OF SNIE 65-58 THE OUTLOOK IN INDONESIA PUBLISHED 12 AUGUST 1958 AND SNIE 65-59 LIKELIHOOD OF INDONESIAN ARMED ACTION AGAINST WEST NEW GUINEA PUBLISHED 10 FEBRUARY 1959

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020027-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: December 18, 1959
• Content Type: NOTES

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USIB-D-16. 2/23
"18 Decein.b:er 19:59
UN:'1TED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
Validity Study of SNIE 65-58
The Outlook in Indonesia
Published 12 August 1958
SNIE 65-59
Likelihood of Indonesian Armed Action
Against West New Guinea
Published 10 February 1959
The attached validity study of SNIE 65-58 and SNIE 65-59 was
noted by the Intelligence Board on I:B: :c-emb:e?r 19.:59 (USIB-M.70,
item 9. b. ).
Executive Secretary
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9 December 1959
Validity Study of SNIE 65-58
The Outlook in Indonesia
Published 12 August ."19,58
SNIE 65-59
Likelihood of Indonesian Armed Action
Against West New Guinea
Published 1(0 February 1959
1. In the main SNIE 65-58 has held up well. In general, the estimates
concerning probable Indonesian Communist Party tactics, the rebellion in
the outer islands and the economy have been borne out by events.
2. The Communist reaction to the postponement of the ele-ctions was
considerably more mild than we estimated. The estimate erred in
indicating that Sukarno would probably seek to consolidate and strengthen
the non-Communist parties to balance the growing electoral strength of
the Communists. Instead, he has continued efforts to weaken the non-
Communist parties and has depended more upon the army as a counter-
weight to the Communists.
3. SNIE 65-59 has proven to be valid and we would make no important
substantive changes in it today.
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