VALIDITY STUDY ON NIE 100-2-58 DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES BY FOURTH COUNTRIES: LIKELIHOOD AND CONSEQUENCES DATED 1 JULY 1958

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020014-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: September 22, 1960
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For Relea a4006/01/1 YF1rY`PeD'P82M00097R000 020014-9
USIB-D-16. 2/37
22 September 1960
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE :BOARD
Validity Study on NIE 100-2-58
Development of Nuclear Capabilities by Fourth Countries:
Likelihood and Consequences
dated 1 July 1958
The attached Validity Study of NIE 100-2-58 was noted by the In-
telligence Board on 20 September 1960 (USIB-M-117, item 4.b. ).
Attachment
Approved For Release 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020014-9
SECRET
 -ppro'ed For Releasb~06/01/17h~RD~82M00097R0006120014-9
Attachment to
USIB-D-16. 2/37
22 September 1960
Validity Study on NIE 100-2-58
Development of Nuclear Capabilities by Fourth Countries:
Likelihood and Consequences
dated 1 July 1958
We have reviewed the major judgments reached in NIE 100-2-58,
and now believe that the earlier estimate probably over-estimated
the likelihood of certain European countries initiating and carrying
out independent nuclear weapons programs, at least during the next
several years. On the other hand, the paper probably underestimated
the magnitude of the Communist Chinese effort to develop such a
program, and the extent of Soviet aid. Other major judgments in
NIE 100-2-58 appear to remain generally valid.
Approved For Release 2006/01/ :C,J R P82M00097R000600020014-9