INDICATIONS AND WARNING, KOREA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82B00421R000100030009-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 1, 2007
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: March 9, 1976
• Content Type: MF

25x1 STAT Approved For Release 2007102/01 :CIA-RDP82B00421 8000100030009-8
 25X1
25X1
VAITEM ' BOARD
Memorandum for Holders-1
USIB -D-28.1 /20
9 March 1976
Limited Distribution
MEMORANDT.JISA FOR HOLDERS OF USIB -D-28. 1 /20
SUBJECT : Indications and Warning, K',rea
REFERENCES
security regulations.
well as Attachment V should be destroyed in accordance with current
Board as appropriate to the subject matter. The reference report as
4 March. The recommendations were either approved or endorsed by the
Approved For Release 2007/02/01: CIA-RDP82B00421 R000100030009-8
TOP SECRET I
a. USIB-D-28. 1/20, 27 February 1976,
Limited Distribution, and Attachment V
circulated to incipals as
b. USIB-M-717, 4 March 1976, Item 1
The attached report is forwarded as a replacement to reference a. ,
which was amended on the basis of Board discussion at its meeting of
Executive Secretary
 Approved For Release 2007/02/01: CIA-RDP82B00421 R000100030009-8
TOP SECRET Attachment
Memorandum for Holders-1
USIB-D-28. 1/20
9 March 1976
Limited Distribution
FINAL
US CAPABILITIES TO WARN OF A NORTH KOREAN ATTACK
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'TABLE OF CONTENTS
US CAPABILITIES TO WARN OF A NORTH KOREAN ATTACK
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
I. INTRODUCTION 1
II. ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT WARNING POSTURE. . 3
A. US Warning Needs . . . . . . . . . . 3
1. National/Political . . . . . . . 3
2. Theatre and Local Military . 3
B. US Warning Resources . . . . . . 4
1. Collection Resources . . . . . . 4
2. Analytical Resources . . . . . . 5
3. Communications . . . . . . . 10
4. US Intelligence Priorities . . . 11
C. US Warning Estimates . . . . . . . . 11
III. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . 13
IV. PROSPECTS AND PERSPECTIVES . . . . . . . 21
Attachments
1. Visit Synopsis and Persons Contacted
2. Tactical Warning Systems
3. Communications: PACOM Intelligence Watch
4. CINCPAC's Korean Indications and Warning es an
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h._ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
On 8 January 19 76 , the Director of Central Intelligence
requested that the Director, DIA, in his role as J-2 of the
Joint Staff, organize a review group representing the USIB
agencies for the purpose of assessing the Korean Indications
and Warning problem. The review group visited the Pacific
and Korean commands from 28 January to 7 February.
The principal conclusions of the review group are
summarized as follows:
- North Korea will attempt to suppress indications of
an attack to achieve surprise;
- In event of a North Korean decision to attack, there
would be detectable anomalies in North Korean
activity
ese anomalies would be limited, and the all-source
data base against which to measure the anomalies is
deficient;
- Analysis and interpretation of the anomalies would
not reach a point to support warnin of probable
attack until about H minus
The review group then makes a series of recommendations
to improve the all-source data base and the Indications and
Warning posture. The report concludes by noting that the
recommendations, if effected, would not necessarily afford
additional warning time, but would increase the confidence
with which the intelligence community could offer its
existing estimate of warning time available.
iii
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 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/02/01: CIA-RDP82B00421 R000100030009-8
Approved For Release 2007/02/01: CIA-RDP82B00421 R000100030009-8