JPRS ID: 10492 JAPAN REPORT

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004500060005-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JPRS L/ 10492 5 May 1982 Ja an Re ort ~ p p CFOUO 27/82) Fg~$ FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATI~N SERVICE FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040500060005-5 NOTE JPRS publications contain informat ion pricoarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. Ma terials from foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the origxnal phrasing and other characteristics retained. Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets are supplied by JPRS. P:~~cessing indicators such as [Text) or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor- mation was summarized or extracted. Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques- tion mark and enclosed in parenthe ses were not clear in the original but have been supplied a s appropriate in context. Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an item originate with the source. T imes within items are as given by source . The contents of this publication in no way represent the poli- cies, views or at.titudes of the U.S. Government. COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 FOR OFF[C[AL USE ONLY JPRS L/10492 5 May 1982 . JAPAN REPORT - (~'OUO 27/82~ CONTENTS ECO;~OMIC Trade Fricti~n With United States Analyzed (NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN, various dates) 1 SCIENCF. AND TECHNOLOGY Technology Cooperation With U.S. To Be Strengthened ~ (NIHON KEIZAI SHIMAUN, 30 Mar 82) 18 MITI Approves U.S, Participation in 5th Generation Computers (NIKKEX SANGYO SHIMBLIN, 6 Apr 82) 20 ~ Tariff Rate o n Computers Lowered to 4.~.~ Percent (NIHOTI KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 9 Apr 82~ 22 Friction With USSR Over Communications Satellite Noted (YOMIURI SHIMBUN, 9 Apr 82) 25 Translation System To Be Established, 'Dictionary' Promoted (NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN, 31 Ma.r 82) 26 Communi~~ation Committee To Cope With Uitra-Modern Technology - INIHON KOGYO SHIMBiJN, 13 Apr 82) 2$ Revision, Abo lishment of 355 Laws Approved (NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 19 Mar 82) 30 MITI, Postal Service Head for 'Second Rou:~d' Over Communications (MAINICHI SHIMBUN, 20 Mar $2) 36 . Industry Starts Preparations for Data Communications Role fNIHON KRIZAI SHIMBUN, 20 Mar 82) 39 Further Discu ssions on Data Communications Urged (YOMIURI SHIMBUN, 24 Mar 82) 42 - a - [IIT - ASIA - 111 FOUO] FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500060005-5 HUR U~HI('IAI. USE UNLY ECONOMIC TRAD~ FRICTION WITH UNITED STATES ANALYZED Tokyo NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 9, 10, 12, 17, 18,. 19 FQb 82 [9 Feb 92 p 1] [Text] Rebuilding UoS,-Japan Relations: Effort To Promote Imports; Criticism of Status Quo in Japan A s Japan-UoS, trade friction escalate^. gover~ent officials and trading companies are afraid that a Reagan shock may strike Japano The Reagan administration is chafing under an $18-billion trade deficit with Japan and a growing domestic unemployment problE:m. They believe that he may unilaterally enact stiff sanctions against Japan such as import restrictions or import surcharges. The UoS, Congress has repeatedly proposed reciprocity bills, which may be taken as a forewarning of some such action, and a movement to ' seal off Japan in emergingo Also, the effects of the expanded military budget aiming at a strong America cannot be overlooked. The EC (European Community) also began studying anti-Japanese measures on the lOth of the month. Depending on how the situation develops, Japan may drop out of GATT (General Agreement on Tariff and Trade) temporarily because of a boycott on Japan. Furthermore, the recent demands on Japan related to trade friction are for opening up to service~ as well as conventional goods, and they are spreading to domestic economic policies and defense issues. The Japanese response has become cor- respondingly difficult. The difficult must be overcome one way or another in order to ~aintain national security and the smooth working of the free economy of the West. Masumi Ezaki, chairman of tne LDP International Economic Measures Special Study Committee, will visit the United States on the 21st to talk with President Reagan, explain the policies for opening ttre Japanese market, and seek understanding. Chairman Ezaki is actually the chief person res- ponsible for enacting measur.es for improv3.ng 647 non-tariff barriers (NTB) previously determined by the government. Since this visit will occur during ' the rush for a reciprocity bill, he is likely to meet with rather harsh cricicism. However, Chairman Ezaki is taking the stance: "In order to build a new Japan-UoS. relationship, I will state clearly what needs to be said." He will advance directly on the White House and attempt to make this visit to the United States a starting point for a substant3.a1 Japanese liberalization policy. 1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500060005-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY [Interview with Chairman Masumi Ezaki of the LDP International Economic Measures Special Study Committee; questions by reported Eitatsu Furudate] Tariff Levels the Lowes t in the World [Question] First what is your own view, Mr Chairman, on the 1~'TB improvement , measures? Fsaki: The study committee spent about 80 hours examin~.ng this problem in ; parallel. with Iast yea r's budget formulation, As a resulC, while consulting with Chairman Xamanaka of the Tax System Study CoBanittee and obtai:zing full cooperation, we decided to move up the multilatexal tr.ad~ negotiations decided on dFiring the Tokyo Round of trade talks by 2 years. In other words, we decided to take ear ly ac.*.ion on all 1,653 items. Not only would this have an effect of reducing the 3eficit by 40 to 4S billion yen, but it would make Japanos average tariff rate 4.,9 percent, the lowest in the world. This was decided on as the firs t stepo Also, with respect to improvement of i.mport inspection procedures, there are 51 i~ems which have be en under study by our committee since its inceptiona _ iJltimatel.y, this was expanded to 99 itemso This shows in reverse how overly troublesome the import inspection procedures have been. This process has exposed some h~aphazard aspects in the procedures of government off-ices. I believe we have achieved substantial results. Sweeping Away Forei~n Criticism With OTO [Question] However, a conr_inual inundation of demanda for i.mprovement can be expec*ed from tt:e UniCed States and Europeo rsaki: Certainly, just as the 51 de~nands grew to 99, we can expect the number of specific demands to easily reach 120 or 130, Therefore, we decided to create an Office of Trade Ombudsman (~TO) with a complaint processing role, directly under the prime ministar's office, as an organ for comprehensive government response to the opening of the marketo By this means we can make a quick, ~o~n~rehensive response to pr~blems that involve more than one ministry or to new probl~ms and avoid the regetition of criticism by foreign countries that we always say that we will "take positive measures" but never actually respond. This is especially important in our approach to foreign countries. [Question] There are some who claim that this will be "making an image of Buddha without putting in the spirita" Ezaki: In a vertically organiz~d government administration, it is necessary to have a followup study to see if a certain thing has actually been done. The study committee is prepared to makz such a study and do everything it can to follow up. If this approach really works, I believe it can become an inter- national matter, as p o~.nted out by the U.D. Minister in Japan, Barraclough, This is a very important aspect of, avoiding friction. 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500060005-5 b'OR OFFIt'1A1, USE ONLY ~eciprocity a Principle of "Equality" [QuestionJ However, it is q uestionable whether the trade imbalance with the United States and Europe will be eliminated or whether trade friction can be avoided through these measures alone. Ezaki: Certainly, I do not think this alor.e will make the problem go away, However, we have simplified our import procedures so that they are similar to those of the United States. If ihere is a further demand to make the procedures similar to those of the EC, we are prepared to discuss it and d o something about it. And, as you mentioned, we have created a policy of beginning construrti~n on 1.3 billion units of housing and are making repeated efforts to promote product imports to expand domestic demand. Therefore, we hope that the United States and Europe and the developing countries w3.11 make a greater effort to export to Japan. We would like the bu~iness leaders of the United States and Europe to make a renewed effort to pramote this within their countries. ~ [QuestionJ However, whatever the situation is in Euroge, the United States is facing offyear elections. Even if there is a theoretical understanding, there is a rising mood of protectionism and some danger of retaliatory measures against Japan in the name of reciprocity. In other words, there could be a "Reagan shock" worse than tne "Nixon shocke" Ezakl: There is a lot of discussion of "reciprocity." We understand reciproci- ty to be a principle of equality, the carrying on of trade according to the same rules. To espouse volume restrictions and protectionism under the name of reciprocity would throw the world economy into confusion and would lead to trouble even in the limited case of the United States and Japano Japan is purchasing a large volume of agricultural products such as wheat from the United States and exporting almost no agricultural products to that country, The important thing is for the country which has a certain pxoduct to export - it to the country that does not, to the place with the greatest need. However, Japan cannot prosper unless the United States prospers. This is a fundamental principle. Furthermcare, the number of unemployed in the United States has reached almost 10 million, the greatest number since the great depression of the 1930's. We must take this very seriously. The same goes for the EC. This i.s not a simple situation. - [Question] What measures can Japan take for this? ~ Ezaki: It is necessary for us to cooperate wherever possible. In particular, our ii~dustrial sector, indee3 each company, must think of this as a"second - opening of the country" and work actively to place its facilities in the United States and other countries and promote technological assistanceo Also, we must sincerely proceed to simplify the complicated domestic distribution syst-em which has been criticized by the UoS~ auto industry; promote the application of data from U.S. testing organs, and make a positive study of the 27 items which still come under import restrictions. 3 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 rou c~rNic�in~. u~~~: ~Ni.v ~ Invite American Opinion Leaders [Question] Then what will you appeal for in your upcoming visit to the TJnited States? Ezaki.: It would be impudent to offer the secrets of Japanese success or ask the United States ~o learn from us in the area of productivityo However, one of the motive forces of Japanese progress is the quality of its managers. Any- one c4n become pres~.dent of a company regardless of his background. I would like to have them understand these differences in Japanese culture and society. Also, I wouZd Iike to extend a sincere invitation to America's opinion leaders to come to Japan to sPe and hear these things. _ An other big pr oblem between the United States and Japan is that we are not unified by a network of roads as is the EC.. That is r.~t all. It is said that there is a lack of reciprocity in our treatment of UoS. financial and service organi~ations. The Japanese have traditionally had a strong attachment to st~cks and not been inclined to let them out. This has given rise to the mis- under~tanding that we are closed and isolationist. Also, there are some items that are restricted T~ahen there is danger of a substantiaL adverse efFect on the 3apanese economy. I would li ke to explain these special problems, includir:g our Achilles heel--oil. If something happened one day in the Middle East, the prosperity of the Japanese economy could crumble. [Question] Finally, I believe there is a good possibility that during your visit on the trade friction problem the United States will make demands which include a sharing of the defense burden. Ezaki: I ~aill tr.eat defense and trade as two separate problems. To bring these two pronlems Logether would make the solution of problems between the United States and Japan much more complicated. However, I also understand something a.bout thA defense problem, so I will listen carefully and explain in detail how Japa.z is making an effort. I think new demands will be made for opening the market, and I intend to explain clearly what we can and cannot do. The promot~on of diplomacy direc~-ed toward men~bers of congress concerned with tliese matcers will also be necessary. [10 Feb 82 p 1) [Article by reported Norio Konuma] [Text] Second Move: Abolishment of NTB; Cooperation in Advanced Technology Before Paris Summit Painful A;aareness of Weak Foundations of Japanese Economy "Can't we have a third oil shock?" This remark has frequently been heard in MITI recently, and it is hard to tell whether it is a joke or a serious wish. If ar. oil shock came, there would be an immediate trade deficit. This would get rid of t;ie trade friction that is becoming such a headache for MITI. 4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500060005-5 F'OR OFFIC[AL l1SE ONI.I' Indeed, during the two previous oil shocks, the balance of international pay- ments went into the red, and the U.So and European criticism of Japan somehow disappeared. If the same thing happened again, things would " work out well." _ This approach is like "waiting for a divine wind." Of course, there would be seri ous trouble if this longed-for oil shock came. So the present situation is causing a great deal of irritation. What MITI is really trying to say is: "The f oundations of th e Japanese economy are weak." Japan is the only c a�ntry that is continuing to grow successfully . while the Uo~o and European economies remain in a slump, so it is the object of envy and complaints. However, MITI is saying: "It is not really true." MITI is afraid that witti a little Pressure from the outside, "it could easily crarnble." Minister of International Trade and Industry Abe presented a position of "maa.ntaining freedom of trade" and pro~ested reciprocity at the tripartite trade conferenc e at Key Biscayne, Florida on 15 and 16 January and in a series of talks with U.S~ Government and busi.::ass leaders. But he has also advocated . somethino else in a quiet way. That is: "The United States and Europe argue strongly that their economies are in recession and unemploymeiit has increaseil. But no country has as great a financial burden as Japan. ~apan is pressed by the debt created by many years of deficit financing. The internal situation is not as goo3 as the United States and Europe may think." This statement implies that the foundations of the Japanese economy are weak, not at all stro:ig, and that future policies are restricted. If invisible unemployment is considered, unemployment is growing in Japan, even if it is not yet as bad as in Europe and the United States. If the free trade system breaks down, there is a latent fear that a c:ountry like Japan which depends on trade will run into L�rouble. Certainly, some processed goods like automobiles, color television sets, n~achine tocls, and semiconductors are strong enough to cause trade friction ~aith f~reign count-ries. However, other basic industrial sectors such as aluminum and petrochemicals are under attack from overseas. TYiey are like a candle f.lame in the wind, and there are many problems. A~aoiding Repercussions Over Semiconductors With the px~esent petroleum situation, there wi,ll not be another oil shock soon. But if there is a shock brought on by t:~e United States unilaterally imposing sanctions on Jap~n such as import surcharges or restrictions, the Japanese economy will soon come to a standstill. This awareness "is driving MITI to take active measures to open the market, even though it believes that the reciprocity bill now being presented in the U.S. congress "will not pass" (Makoto Kuroda, assistant director of MITI's Interna.tional Trade Policy Bureau). 7'hP policy is to "reduce the number of remaining items with import restrictions and expand the boundaries" (Minister of International Trade and Industry Abe). Wh~dtever form the policy takes, MTTI wants to avoid a"Reagan shock" one way or another. 5 FOR OFFiCIAL USE ONI.Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500060005-5 Tr'OR OFFIC[AL USI�: ONL~' So what is to be done? M~TI is aware that the previously formulated policy to eliminate non-tariff barriers (NTB), mainly by simplifying and improving import procedures, is not enough. Therefore, MITI believes it is necessary to introduce a second NTB elimination proposal wi~h the objective of reducing the items still under import restrictions, such as agricultural products, and open up the market to financial and trust services before the Paris summit in June. The MITI leadership thinks that "~3merica is concentrating on one thing, ope:ling up the market." Therefore, if it does not make some sort of response, there is the danger that ~merica will rush to take protectionist measures. HoweveX, most of these proposals actually come under the jurisdiction of other ministries and agencies. Therefore, MITI is determined to set an example and push hard for opening of the market, wo.rking to expand the boundaries of imports" for items like leather goods which are more of a political than an economic pro'olem. With respect to separate categories which come under MITI's jurisdiction such as automobiles and machine tools, MITI is taking a strong surface stance for the second year. Vice Minister Ichiro Fujiwara says: "Automobiles will be handled according to the rules." According to Kaku Toshima, director of the Machinery and Information Industries Bureau: "Fundamentally, the number of vehicles will be 1.68 million plus alpha." Actually, However, MITI intends to be flexible in negotiations. 11A reduction is impossible." "This will be a means of softening U~S,-Japan negotiations." - However, what worries MTTI is the possibility that, in the name of reciprocity, high technolog~ such as that seea in semiconductors may meet the same fate as automobiles. Even if problematic items like communications equipment were added, says Kengo Ishii, assistant director of the Machinery and Information Industries Bureau, it would not be a big problem because "the amount of money involved is small ccmpared t~ automobiles." However, it is a matter of conc:ern. Do Not Give an Excuse for Reciprocity For this reason, MITI is working on the various sectors to open the ma.rket as much as possible and not give the United States an excuse for implementing reciprocity measures. TYiis touches on MITI's true feelings of irritation at the prospect of having e~port restrictions put on items unde.r its Jurisdiction such as automobiles, semiconductors, and coimnunications equipment because of progosals by the other ministries--the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery, the Ministry of Health and Welfare, and the - Ministry of Transportation--whicin are criticized by the United States. MITI believes it shou'Ld activPiy promote positive policies and positions for industrial cooperation in advanced technological fields, which are being - requested by the United States and Europe, as an aid to eliminating trade friction. Shohei Jurihara, a trade official, says: "This is fundamentally a matter for the pri.vate sector, but ~ae will make every effort to cooperate on the part of the government." 6 FOR OFCIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500060005-5 !~'()k ()HTi('(:1i. liti[; f)?ti~.~' . "The.United States says that it is in difficult circumstances. However, Japan has been forr.ed to l.ool~: too r,;uch at the northern and eastern areas, especially Detroit. 'L'here is atso a strong part of America, in the West and the S outh, producing agricultural products and electronics products." MITI - officials are feeling the pressure fram Amerir.,a directly. "For some reason, a cold wi~1d has been blou~ing frcr,n America since the beginning of March. EvOn though it is spring, i.t teels Ii'~ce we are goind back to winter." Will Japan prosper as a countr.y built on the foundation of trade with a balanced expansion according to *~iI'TI's plans? Or will the world take the path of protectionism and contraction. This will be decided by Japan itself as it endeavors to open its marlcets. [1.2 Feb 82 p 2] [Article by reporter Tsuy~ski Kikuchi] [TextJ Technology and Services: General Trading Companies MQVe Away F.rom Emphasis on Tangible Goods; Promotion of Comprehensive Industrial Cooperation Taking titie "Vanguard" Role in Fliminating Friction According to Seiki Tozaki, president of C. Itoh and Co, "We have entered an era of campound political and economic crisis," Ever. since the UoS�-Japan fiber negotiations, trade friction has been r.ontinuously exacerbated by polirics. Economic stagnation ~135 brought about high unemployment. The stagnation of regional industry has become more of a problem pol.itically. As a result, some leaders of large cornpanies have begun to ask: "Why is Japan the only country that has to mo~~e up the implementation of the Tokyo Round tariff reductions? This does not agree with diplamatic commonsense." On the other hand, most observers b2l.ieve that the [~merican actions have been very reasonableo "Japan is starting from zezo, r,tit .America is starting from l0U percent" (Tomen consultant `loshitomi Ishimariz). Th:ere is a big difference between America implementing import restrictions toith a tiackground of 100 percent liUeralization and Japan malcing small corzcesssions after Y,aving no achievemen~s in this area. Therefore, sc.~me tliitxk that the main prc?~lem is how much restr.ic~ion exists in comparisori to 100-percetit liberalization rather than hn~,~ many items are restricted. This view l~olds tha~ bePore America became political, Japan was even more political. Japan~s poli.tical "lack box," represented especially by faxm producrs, has made the trade problem more complicated. As exemplified in Mi.nister of Finance Watanabe's statement ab~ut "carousing," the trading companies are usually thought of as the "vanguard of trade." When it comes to the ~rade friction problem, they are at the forefront of the effort to open the market. Behind this is a reaction to the idea that the trading companies are inherently evil. "The friction has been caused by auto and electrical equipment makers. The trading companies are actually helping to eliminate friction." 7 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 FOR OFF[C'tAy. USE ONLY The nine largest trading companizs have a 56-percent share of Japan`s total imports, but only 48.7 percent of the exports (in 1980). For six trading companies, imports exceeded exports. Mitsui USA is ranked fourth among U~S~ exporters (with $3.8 billion in 1980), coming'behind Boeing and GM. Because its exports exceed imports by $2 billion, it claims: "We are contributing to improvement of the U.S, trade balance." A New Viewpoint on Liberalization of Farm Products � Trading campany business has slowed down as much as that of domestic basic industries, so d ifficulties are increas tng. Even if the UoSo demands are met, imports from the United States will reach only $1 billion, jus t a drop in the bucket for eliminating friction. The ripple effects of increased distribution volume are great, and it would be betcer for business not to have these accusations. Yohei Mi~sumura, president of Mitsubishi Corporation, says: Why not lib- eralize the import of beef and oranges? Compensation for the d omestic problems could be considered separately." Sachio Shibayama, president of _ Sumitomo Shoji, says: "The remaining items under import restriction should all be liberalized. An import tax could be established, and these funds could be used to carry out domestic measures. Seiko Kojima, senior executive managing director of Marubeni, says: "It is only natural that nontariff barriers (NTB) should be modified, but this wi11 not automatic ally restore rhe trade imbalance." - Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Tazawa xs keeing up a stiff defense agai~t liberalization of farm products: "Any more is impo~sib le." Increasing self-sufficiency is a problem related to national security. However, Hiromune Minakawa, executive managing director of Mitsubishi Corporation, is optimistic: "It is a m$stalce to think that secur3.ty is possible with self-sufficiency in food. Things should be arranged so that Che countries exporting farm products to Japan will be in trouble if anything goes wrong in Japan." Koj ima also says: "There are some ~ectors such as lives tock which have grown on the basis of feed imports. There are li.mitations to increasing self-sufficiency." He emphasizes that close economic relati.ons can aid 3n easing conflictso However, since exports to America are industrial products and imports are primary products like wheat, feed, and coal, the UoS.-Japan trade structure will always resolve itself into a pattern whereby Japan en~oys.a favorable balance of trade under ordi.nary rates of economic growth. Ultimately, the United States will try to reach into service fields as well as cott~erical product trade. But servi.ce fields grow out o� each country's historical and cultural backgrounds. Therefore, simple comparisons are diff icult and the Japanese response inevitably becomes more difficult. Policies To Create a Strong Yen and Solve Fundamental Problems Even though exports were slowing down w3.th the yen exchange rate at last year's high level, as a result of a drop in the yen rate, an exporL d rive is getting underway again. There is a fundamental problem with economic oolicies which 8 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 NOR OE~FiCIAL USE ONLY depend on exports. If ineasures are not taken to inducz a high yen rate in ~arallel with the liberalization of imports, the problem will not be solved. S~nQ of the large trading companies are saying that the series of reductions in the interest rate havE led to an increase of friction, and they are begin- ning to ca11 for the implementation of "operation twist." This is a policy opposite to that used in ordinary times. It is a policy for creating low long-term inzerest rates and h~.gh short-term interc:st rates. The Kennedy administration used it successfully in parallel with tax reduction palicy. This will probably end up only in increased direct intervention in the exchange market. The pound rate wi11 remain high because of the North Sea oil fields. This has the ironic result of weak~ning international campetitiveness, and the U.S. high interest policy leads to a strong dollar. However, Japanese f oreign exchange policy has an undeniably large effect on the presenC trade ~ friction. Another problem i~ that Taiwan and Korea are catching up with Japan, There is a boomerang effect, and the large trading companies are beginning to get involved while at the same time trying not to offend Japanese steel makers. ^the trading companies are also under pressure to use a diver$ified appr~ach. According to Shunji Ueda, president of Nichimen Co, Ltd: '.:Japan cannot survive without buying things from foreign countries. H awever, it must not only deal in products but must also carry out "comprehensive industrial cooperation" involving technology and services as :~ell in order to solve the trade friction problem. This is where the trading companies must get into the act." Previous imports of primary goods have been descri.bed as the wreckage resulting fram Japanese employment policies. 7.'he liberalization of farm product exports is more oP a domestic problem rooted in our country's political base than it is a problem of U.S. political pressure. [ 17 Feb 82 p 1] [ArCicle by �repnrr.er Katsuhiko Tomioka] j'Cext] Cl~.r~.fication of items of Pre:~er~ritial Treatment: Time Required for Unde.rstanding of System: "Discrimination" Against Foreign Banks a Misunder- s tanding Dissatisfaction Over Bank Administration and the Financial System As Japan-U.S. trade friction increases, the debate on Che isolationism of Japanese financial services has rapidly become a focus of concern. U.S. Ambassador Mansfield clearly expressed dissatisfaction with reference to this problem in January: "Japanese banlcs are buying American banks, but American banks are not allowed to buy .Tapanese banks." America is asking for reciprocity, and this inequality in the area of financial services, or rather, this discrimination against American banks, is difficult to bear. Correction of this situation is becoming a key point in improvement of Japan-U.S. trade relations. 9 FOR OFFICIAL USF. ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500460005-5 ;~092 ~~FHCtAL LISE ON~.Y ie~ us analyz2 w'nu~t t~I1P UniL-ed Si:ates means by discrimination against foreign ba~ks. Tne dissar.a.s~ac-~zon of the Utzited States can be divided into complaints against the banic administration of the Ministry of Finance and complaints against the Japanese fznancial sys~ecn itselfo Items related ta the formereategvey are the regulations governing estau:List?ment of banks, limitations on activities for obtaining deposirs, and in~ome regulations on Japanese financial institutione. Problems under the latter category are the prohibition of bank debenture issues an~ limitations on consumer credit business. If the U,Se accvsatioris a-re correct and these types of restrictions on foreign banks exist, ~ae must admit that this is indeed 1�discrimination." What is the real situation? First, let us examine the rebuttal given to the LDP International ~conomic Measures Special Committee by the Ministry of Finance under the orders of r~.nance Minister Watanabe on 12 February. "Establishmenr and expansion of branches o� foreign banks are allowed as long as a necessary minimum of soundness is maintained. There is no discrimination _ between this and the establishment of branches of Japanese banks. The solicitati.on of deposits from individuals by foreign banks is completely free." "The puzchase of Japanese banks by foreign banks is possible in principle. = I-Iowever, thi.s requires agreement between the parties as a prior condition. Also, if a financial institution holds more than 5 percent of the stock, the � approval of the I'air Trade Commission is necessary under the Antimonopoly Law. - However, this is not some~hing that is only applind to fore3.gn banks." JapanesE banks go along ~oith the Ministry of Finance i.n saying that the com- - plaint aboat the prohibition of bank debenture issues and the limitation on consumer credit activities is nonsense. The issuing of bank debentures is also impossiUle for Japanese banks, with some exceptions such as the Bank of Tokyo, and not just for foreign banks. "This is a difference in the system, not dis- - crimination," according to the Iitternational Division of Su.mitomo Bank. The same source says this about ~he limitations on consumer credit business: "Japanese banl;s are actually placed under stiffer restrictions. Foreign bauks are free. Indeed, a number of consumer finance companies have emerged un3er the r~ame of banks. Tn a sense, you could say that domestic banks are being discriminated against." Actually No Advantage in Purcha~in; Banks? I taould l_ike to narrow the discussion down ~o the "purchase of Japanese banks - by forei;n banks" spoken of ~y Ambassador Mansfield and analyze this issue carefully. ~Lr is a fact that Japanese city banks have purchased U,S, banks , in such places as California, and it is also true that there is no opposite example of U.S. banks buying Japanese banlcs. However, this is not because they want to buy a Japanese bank and cannot. It appears tnat, in reality, they have not bought any Japanese bank because there is n~ advantage in doing so. ~ 10 FOR OFFICyAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 FOR aF~'it'i.~lL L'SF. t)ti:.l' "Japanese banks are forced to operate at a low rate ot profit under the eupheniisim of `social mission.' Could the hoped-for results be achieved by buying such institutions?" These words of an influenti~al American bank executive seem to back up this idea. FurtheYtnore, there is r.o example in the past of a foreign bank making an offer to bu~ a Japanese bank. If we ask for the real opinion of foreign banks, the response varies. At the same time they are generally sensitive about the discrimination problem. Several influentual foreign banks have said: "No co~ent." One branch manager i made the following statement on the conciiti.on that the tiame of the bank not ; be revealed, whether in deference to Ministry of Finance of�icials or to ' "middlemen." "I do not thinlc there is discrir.iination. They think that ; because they have not carefully studied the .Tapanese situation. Mosst of the responsibility is theirs." However, the majority seem to believe that "there i.s sti?1 some unfairness." "Whether there i.s unfairness or lio~ depends on how it is interpreted. If the problem is national treatment, there is no unfairness now, in spite of what the past si.tuation might have be~n. Hocaever, if we ?.ook at the issue of the system itself, this is not necessaily true. Japanese banks receive preferential treatment in the Un~.ted Stares because they are foreign banks. For example, because their head office is in a foreign country, they can establish a place pf business I.n any state. In Japan their are so such areas of prefer~ntial tre~tment for foreign ba;xks" (Bankers Trust). Differences Between the United States and Jagan in the Degree of Freedom in Operations "It is not discriminati~~n, but I find a dj.fference between Japan and the United States in the degree of freedom in banking operations. Japan's financial system is overly complicated and it obstructs free economic activities. Especially with respect to fund procurement methods, the diversification used by Japanese banks in the United States should be made possible here" (Chase Manhattan Eank). From the views of L-hese banks, we see that the differences betcaeen the financial systems in Japan and the United States give rise to a"perception of unfairness," and the most extreme people a.nterpret this as "discrimination." If this is the case, the "various for ms ordi.scrimination" toward foreign banks - cl.aimed by the United States cannot be den9.ed out of hand. There are qualititive differences, but if the position of both countries is clearly communicated, it is not a problem that is impossible to overcome. The Ministry ot Finance seems to have understood this bel.atedly. It says that it will make clear the areas of preferential treatment taward foreign banks which the United States di3 uot kncw of or was not inf ormed of, such as the exemption from Bank of Japan "wir~dow guidance" or the exemption from the obligation to accept nar.ional bond issues, in order to clear up U.S. misunderstanding. ~ 11 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500060005-5 FO~ OF~rlCIAL USE ONLY Because there are differences in fur.damental awareness or philosophy with res- pect to the system, the attempt to create understanding will take sometime. Ho~aever, such a dialogue should lead to definite results. Although it is a rather commonplace conclusion, I believe that patient effort is the key to improvement of this situation. [18 Feb 82 p 1~ - [Article by reporter Tetsunosuke Hirose] [TextJ Era of Compound Crisis: Isolationism Casts a Shadow; Getting Away From Dependence on the United States; Economic Relations To Be Diversified _ Progressing ta Social and Cultural Friction "Three Japanese businessmen purchased the management rights of the Haworth Country Club in Bergen County, New Jersey, and decided on a big hike in the annual membership free from $300 to $5,500-$10,500. At first, this was met with jokes like: "Are they planning to put a geisha in the locker room?" However, the Japanese actually began to shut out Americans in practice, and hatred of the Japanese grew among the members. It is terrible when Americans are made into "second-class citizens." This is just a small.article from a recent NEk' Y~JRK TIMES. However, the papPr gave it the title "Japan-U.S. Golf Course Friction." The trade friction which began with textiles, color television, and automobiles is now spreading from general economic friction to social and cultural friction. Furthermore, the economic friction was not brought about only be economic causes. "Today, 40 years after Pearl Harbor, the United States has become a virtual 'economic colony of Japan.' Japan imports farm products and raw materials from the United States and exports finished products such as cars and color television sets to the United States. This is the classic form of a colonlal relati.onship. Why has such a thing happened? It is because Japan has been spared large outlays for defense" (~dASHINGTON POST). Economic friction has roots in military and political problems and it gives rise to further social and political problems. These various problems are intricately entaiigled. Ryuzo Seshima, a consultant to C. Itoh and Co, has frankly called thi.s situa- tion "an era of compound crisis." He says: "If the trade friction is under- stood only on the econcunic 1eve1, we will 1os~ our view of the whole. An understanding on the political level is absolutely necessary." He has recently been making an active contribution to foreign economic policy and admin- istrative reform as a part of the "general staff of the financial sector" and as a member of the Second Ad Hoc Council on Administrative Reform. Because of hi;s experience as a part of the'~enera'1 staff," his politicaL and military analysis of the world situation has a solid reputation. When Seshima speaks of a"military analysis," he is referring to "the close connection between trade and rlefense. This "trade and defense linkage theory" ~s not the exclusive property of Seshima. The relation between the two was incisively analyzed in the report "America's Choice," put out by the Hoover ~ 12 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500060005-5 FOFc OFF3t'IAL USE OM1.Y Institute of the United States. The bill demanding an increase in Japanese defense spending, sponsored in the U.S. Congress Yast fall by Congressman Neal, arose from the same kind of thinking. No Solurion Wirh Bilateral Reforms Certainly there is a strong allergy to this linkage theory in Japan. If this linkage becomes clear, there will be reactions such as "the business sector is being sacrificed to defense" and "the opposition parties will not stand for being drawn into more involvement in def.ense because of economic fr.iction." And the government will not be able to move either way. However, as Seshima points out, if we analyze trade friction only in economic terms, we will head into a blind a11ey and noL be able to find a way out. "The government and the LDP are working to improve non-tariff barriera and open the market, and this ,probably has substantial psychological effectiveness. However, in tenns of its e~fect in reforming the trade imbalance, it will only reduce the trade surplus by a s~nall monetary amount" (Yoshihiro Inayama, president of the Keidanren). As long as the trade imbalance is not elimi~~ated, friction will not disappear. No matter how hard Japan works to open its market, there will be no end to the demands from the United States and Europe. The restrictions on auto exports to the United States implemented under a 2-year agreement have been extended to a th.ird year, end after autos, there is a strong campaign for new self- imposed restrictions on electronics exports such as semiconductors. While it is still uncertain w~ether improvement of non-tar~.ff barriers will be achieved, the United States has dernanded liberalization of service trade. Furthermore, there is the troublesome fact that "the trade a.mbalance cannot be corr~~^ted bilaterally" (Inayama). "The Americans are threatening to pass a'reciprocity bil?,' If they can do it, let them try. Could it be passed in Congress? If such a situation occurs, it will c:ause a big problem in the United States" (Sony Chai.zman Akio Morita). This kind of "defi.ance11 or "hardline" attitude is comparitively common among Japanese businessmen. This may be a kind of shock therapy for the United States, but the problem is that even with this defiant attitude, it is necessar}~ to look carefully not only at economic a.spects but also at the intentions of the United States and the strategy of the Reagan administration. ~de can speak of defe~lse being entangled in the trade friction problem, but the problem cannot Ue solved undPr the simple formula espoused up to now of "either trade or defense." Looking at Defense From the Viewpoint of Comprehensive Security "On the basis'of tiiat dichotomy, if we expand defense spending to 1 percent of the GNP as requested by the United States, Che trade friction should be eliminated" (Shun Ishihara, president of Nissan Motor). The follawing scenario of the Reagan strategy has been discussed recently. �13 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 rOR OFFICIAl. 1JSE ONL.Y "Reagan is taking a hard line against the Soviet Union on the surface, but - behind tb.e scenes, he is seeking to "shake hands" with the Soviets. A"new Yalta system" has t~een constructed which gives tacit approva 1 to the situation - in Poland. In other words, the objective is de.tente and world domination by the United States and ~he Soviet Union. If this could be done, the United States would not need to ma:ntain rhe alliance relatio~nship with Japan and - the countries of the West. Z'Y~E~ Wes~ern alliance is more oE a burde�-. than not for the United States, Thz United States will return to the old Monroe ~octrine (is4lationism)." This scenario is just the tneory of one American expert in Tokyo. However, there is plenty of corollary testimor.y to back it up. Sashima points out: "The Poland problem is a product of the Yalta agre~ment." Ishihara says: "The conflict between the United States and F~urnpe and the uncomfortable re- lationship with Japan will force the United States to turn to isolationism for its own advantage.'' Also; according .to the WASHINGTON P~JST: "Murmurs of isolationism are heard throughout America. Critical glances are being cast at our allies, West Germany and Japan. If West Germany and Japan do not do what they are asked, all of their products should be shut out of the U.S, market." The Reagan administration is rebuilding a new Yalta structure and moving toward - isolationism. According to the WALL STREET JOURNAL, the administration strar_egy corresponds to the mood of the UoS. Congress. "Japan's dependence on Aznerica for defense and its dependence on the American market should be eliminated." The isolationism of the United States is casting a shadow on ~he trade friction problem. This wi11 have the effect of increasing the pressure on Japan ro expand its defense capability. Japan is entering a period where it must work to build diversified economic relationships and escape from dependence on America. At the same time, according to Inayama, it rnust seriously consider "defense capability from the viewpoint of Japan's own overall security." [19 Feb 82 O1] [Text] Substance of Problems Wittt the United States and Japan's Choice: Economic Sector Consensus Should be Reflected in Government The focus of concern in Japan-U,So relations has moved to politics as well as economics. The results of a poll on "overall security taken among influential business executives by the NIPPON KOGYO SHIMBiTN (on 1 January) demonstrated that most executives think there is a threat of invasion of Japan by another country." They also emphasize that "it is necessary co maintain friendly relations with the United States and raise defense spending to 1 or 2 percent of the GNP." However, because of financial difficulties an3 attacks from the opposition parties, it is hard to increase the defense capabiiity, and the . appr.oach to Japan-TI.S. relations tends to be restricted to trade problems. Irritation and anger at this Japanese attitude is spreading in the United States. We asked Assistant Professor Yahiro i;akagawa of Tsukuba University to comment on the situation in the United States and our country's future policy. Here are his remarks: 14 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060005-5 kOFt ()F'1~?C1.41.. USE OiVLY Central Pic~lam Is Defense The present serious problems in Japan-U.S, relations can be said to constitute a crisis of catastrophic proportions. And the central problem is not economic friction. It is the U.So anger (dissatisfaction is not the appropriate word) directed at Japan over the issue of defex?se. Japan is trying to placate the United States by working only on the U.S, trade deficit c~ith Japan, and it is attempting to alleviate th.at by only abolishing some non-tariff barriers. However, the $18-billion U.S. trade deficit with Japan is not nearly as serious as the defense problem. This was demonstrated by the contents of President Reagan's budget message, which was announced early, on 6 February. All Japanese newspapers as usual are fooling the people wi.th a sense of vi~ctimization, saying that a share of the defense b~irden will be pushed on us. Howeve.r, there is a danger, if Japan continues to refuse or fails to make an appropriate response, that the anger of the ~Jnited States will result in "economic retaliation against Japan" and "mxl.itary abandonment