JPRS ID: 10198 USSR REPORT ENERGY (CORRECTED COPY)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: JPRS
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1
• Release Decision: RIF
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 53
• Content Type: REPORTS

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400080053-1
MC)R QhMI('IA1. USE ONLY
JPRS L/10198
16 December 1981
JSSR RP ort
ENERGY
(FOUO 22/81)
FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE -
FOR OFF'ICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000400480053-1
NOTE
JPAS publications contain information primarily fron~ foreign
newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency
transmissions and broadcasts. Materials f2om foreign-language
sources are translated; those from English-language sources
are transcribed or reprintQd, with the original phrasing and
other characteristics retained.
Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets
are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text]
or ~ExcerptJ in the first line of each item, or following the
last line of a brief, ~indicate how the original information was
processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor-
mation was summarized or extracted.
Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are
enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques-
tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were aot clear in the
original but ha~~e been supplied as appropriate fn context.
Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an
it.em originate with the source. Times within ~.tems are as
t~iven Uy source .
- The contents of this publication in no way represent the poli-
cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government.
COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF
MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION
OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLX.
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000400480053-1
. JPRS L/10198
16 December 1981
USSR REPORT
ENERGY
(FOUO 22/81)
CONTElVTS
EI~ECTRIC POWER
Systematic Forecasting of Nuclear Power Induatry
( SISTF~'~TOYE PR(1GNOZIRAVANIYE YADERNOY ENERGETIKt, 1980 1
New Book Dsscribes Operation and Maintenance of Water-
Treatment r'acilities
(Semen Markovich Gurvich, Yuriy Maksimovich Kostrikin;
OPERATOR VODOPODGOTOVKI, 1981) 13
W~ys of Improving F1ie1 Consumption at Power Machinebuilding
Plants
(Yu. A. Yefimon, A. A. Barabaskin; PRQ~IYSHLENNAYA IIJERGETIKA,
Sep 81) 18
- a - [III - USSR - 37 FOU.O]
FaR OF'FICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R400440080053-1
ELECTRIC POWER
SYSTEMATIC FORECASTING OF NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY
Moscow SISTEMNOYE PROGNOZIROVANIYE YADERNOY ENERGETIKI in Russian
1980 (signed to press 3 November 1980) pp I-12,237-239
/Description, foreword, introdu~:tion, and tab'ke of contents from
book by S. Ya. Chernavskiy "Syatematic Forecastin~ of Nuclear Power
Industry", edited by Academician M.A. Styrikovich, USSR Academy of
Sciences' Working Consultative Group for Developing New Questions ~
Regarding the Future Development of Power Engineering, Izdatel'stvo
"Nauka", 1,200 copies~ 238 pagesj
/Textj This monograph is devoted to one of the current
pressing problems facing the power induatry - the devel-
- opment of a theory and methods for estimating the long-
term forecasting of the development of nuclear power en-
gineering as systems. Various aspecta of the long-term
forecasting are examined: economic, technical, mathemat-
ical and psychological. The book basically contains the
original developments of the author. A description of
the models to be used for forQCasting the development
of the nuclear power induatry is provided. Methods for
selectin~g the optimal strategies in conditions of uncer-
tainty are ptoposed.
The book was written for specialiets in the field of
systems research in power engineering~ in forecasting
methodology, and making decisions in conditions of un-
certainty.
FOREWOR~
To correctly evaluate the role of the nuclear power industry in the
fut~re power balance of the national economy is a complicated and
~ difficult scientific task, the practical importance of which, how.ever,
is hard to overestimate. The problem is that the aupplies of organic
fuel in the world, while great~ are limited. Also~ they are diatri-
buted unequally throughout the world. The limitednesa of the most
convenient kinds of organic fuel - petroleum and natural gas - for
the majority o.f energy consumere ie felt by the majority of the
world's nationa even today. In seeking to preserve some petroleum
and natural gas, coal and nuclear power move to the foreground in
1
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404080053-1
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
future evaluations. In spite of the impressive world supplies of
coal, the rapi~i rates of in~reasing its extraction are fraught with
great difficulties. Among the factors preventing the intensive
growth of coal extracti.on is the relative high cost of mining opera-
tions, the difficulties of large-scale transporting of coal by land,
and the growing requirements to protect the environment. And although
there are several counter acting factors, it is highly unlikely that
future power engineering will depend heavily upon coal.
It is more likely that there will be a joint development and use of
various sources of energy - petroleum, natural gas, coal. uranium,
the sun, geothermal heat and so forth. This "cooperation" will, ap-
- parently continue for s~me time; however, the role of nuclear power
in the majority of sectors of power engineering will increase, al-
though at a varied pace.
~:ven today it is important to understand the qualitative and quanti-
tative changes that will take place during this period of growth.
Two basic factors determine this prudence: Che inert properties of
the nuclear power industry and the many different ways that its struc-
ture can be developed. To develop a new tyre of nuclear reactor re-
quires, as a rule, two to three decadea. To evaluate its effective-
ness it is necessary to look some 30 yeare into the future. In this
manner the selection of a strategy for the development of the nuclear
power industry must be compared with the need to forecast its devel-
opment for the next 50 to 60 year~, At the same time thia must be
done while predicting the development of the other power resources.
Many factors need to be considered by the person doing the forecast-
ing; and two dangers--the Scylla and Charybdis of forecasting--lie
~ in wait on the road to a good forecast: whether to try to consider
all the factors or to re~ect the majority of them. In the .
first case the time for making the forecast exceeds what is permis-
sible; in the second case the model for the development is too
rough to correctly reflect the essence of what hae transpired in re-
ality. For this reason the aecond option is not -uitable for fore-
casting.
- In order to find the correct path it ie necessary to develop a scien-
tific methodology. As this applies to the task of forecasting nu-
clear power this is also important because in addition to being the
newest sector it is also one of the moat capital intenaive sectora
of the power industry.
There have been many papers devoted to the future of the nuclear po-
wer industry; the majority of them cuntain quaz;titative evaluations
of the technical and economic indicatora of nuclear electric power
stations and enterprises of the fuel cycle, evaluations of the role
of nuclear power in future power balancas. Some of these papers
have been devoted to the development of the methodological aspects,
including the use of the mathematical modeling method.
Soviet literature, however, has been devoid of acientific papers
dealing with systematic descriptions of the theory and methods for
2
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R000440080053-1
. forecasting the development of the nuclear power industry. No such
work has been done in other countries either. This d~nograph fills
this gap. It is af interest not only to specialists engaged in fore-
casting the nuclear power industry. The book contains material,
which will be helpful to those who have an interest in the methodolo~
gical and practical questions concerning the use of a systematic ap-
proach, and for methodological forecasters and also to specialists
in the field of expert evaluations. The bo~k also deals with questions
on the psychology of the forecasting process, questions of selecting
the optimal strategies in conditions of uncertainty and mathematical
models of the developing nucl.ear power industry. The material used in
the book, nonetheless, is not a conglomerate of developments which are
weakly linked together. On the contrary, the book is very rigidly
and logically put together. One central idea of the author can be
seen in every section -:o develop a practical tool for making fore-
casts. The logic of developing such a tool forcea the author to turn
to the methodology of a systematic analysis and psychology of fore-
casting and to methods of optimizing and mathematical modeling, while
subordinating them eo the common task of research.
For the most part the monograph contains the original developments of
the author; for this reas~n several points need to be given special
attention.
Usually, when people apeak of the use of the systematic approach to
the power industry they assume that systematic research is characteri-
zed by an examination of objects as systems. Moreover, they are dis-
tracted from examining the role of the subject in the very process of
forecasting and from taking into consideration the role played by the
psychological characteristics of the subject - the forecaster.
The author proposes another concept - not forecasting just the devel-
opment of the system - the object, but the conception of systematic
forecasting, in accordance with which for this purpose in order to �,in-
derstand the development of the object - the nuclear power industry
in this case, it is neceasary to take into conaideration the psycho-
logical characteristics of the subject of forecasting. And on this
basis to then construct the work of tha prognoatic groupa. Including
the forecaster within the system from a~ methodological point of view,
of course, is correct and important; however~ the author does not
merely declare a correct methodological hypotheais. but he also demon-
strates how one can take into consideration the psychological features
of the forecasters during the organization of the forecasting procae~s
in a practical manner.
While doing this the forecaster relies upon the work of psychologists
tha[ was done in specific modeled situations. However, the real fore-
casting activity takes place in other then modeled situations when
the forecaster is subjected to the influence of numerous and complex
stimuli. It was necessary to move from the modeled to the real situ-
ation; the author has made this move having analyzed what is new in
introducing the real aituation into the forecast~ing procesa, Moreover
it has turned out that the real forecasting situation ia riche: in
3
, FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R400440080053-1
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
content as compared to the modeled situation and that the real situ-
ation gives birth to the existence of various kind~~ of forecasting
processes. Thus, if in some cases the coatrol of L'ne forecastiug
process must promote the penetration of thought into the substance of
an object, in other cases it is expedient to restrict the fixation of
empirical data. In this manner, the book gives fresh treatment to
~solving the problem of constructing an optimal forecasting system.
In one sense the developing approach contradicts the Delfa method, in
which specific psychological characteristics of the forecasters are
not taken into consideration aad the forecaster is viewed like some
sort of bl.ack box.
The book has given much attention to the exposition of the essence of
the concept of uncertainty of the future. In specific examples the
author shows that certain methodolo asts~including Soviet onea, per
ceive the essence of development mechanically~ as just getting
underway, in which nothing new is happening basically and in which
something new is only superficial, an illusion that ie aeen as a new
consequence of too little knowledge. According to these methodologiats,
the uncertainty of the future is the result of inadequate knowledge
about the nature of an object rather than the manifestation of the
substantial properties of an object.
In his book the auther develope another, correct dialectic view of
" the substance of development, according to which development is ac-
companied by the appearance of what is truly new. This means that in
the trajectories of the development of an object one can encounter
bifurcation points, after which the apriori trajectories branch out.
Before crossing the bifurcation point the object is uncertain in the
sense that it is impossible to say or determine exactly which path
out of a number of possible paths the development process will take.
This uncertainty in. the object is overco~e only by crossing the bifur-
cation point. In thia m.anner the authar has established that the fore-
caster who has found, or more to the point has predicted~ the exis-
tence of a bifurcation point is unable to fully overcome (reveal) the
uncertainty in an object, while improving the process of cognition.
His true task is to study alternative possibilities for development
and not to try to pre,dict exactly wk~ich alternative will be realized.
. The Eorecasting "strength" of a s~ibject in the forecasting process is
limited, in this manner, not only b;- ~he poasibilities of recognizing
the object, but by the object itself and the dialectic of its develop-
ment. In accordance with these crucial methodological hypotheses the
author then proceeds to construct methods for optimizing in conditiona
of uncertainty.
However, before proceeding to d~eveloping the more complicated portioc?
of the forecasting tool, the author providea the deveiopment of sever-
aI basic models of the syatem of nuclear power - models for the devel-
opment of the structure of nucl~ear reactors and models of the develop-
ment of a aystem of enterprises of the fuel cycle. There are many new
elements in these d~aigns. I will note two of them. Firet, the dif-
ferentiation, which the author conducta between forecasting using
~
FOR OFFICIAL USE 9NLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R000440080053-1
mat"hematical models and research of mathematical models, which are
only genetically connected with the object of forecasting; however,
in the process of simplifying it turns out that they are quite unre-
lated. The second point is the proposed method of using models to con-
sider the gradualness of improving new technical means, which is of
utmost importance in the power industry. Other aspects of developed
models are no less important; however, the reader would be better off
reading the materials themselves, especially since the suthor subse-
quently tries to conduct the reader through his logic in the these
developments, thereby simplifying the process of understanding the ma-
terial.
The concluding section is devoted to the development of inethods of
optimizin~ in conditions of uncertainty. In developing these methods
on a solid methodological basie, the author seeks to obtain practical
working methods, without loaing accuracy in so doing. This task was
lar~ely met. The examples cited in the book confirm this.
_ Thus, the reader has before him a book in which he can find not only
a tool for making forecasts ^~ncerning the development of the nuclear
power industry, but also a tooi for determining the optimal strategies
for the development and a tool fo: making a choice.
Of course, one need not expect from this monography an answer to all
questions; but it is a good example of a comprehensive, systematic
research of a very important scientific and practical task.
/Foreword written by Academician M.A. Styrikovich7
INTRODUCTION
Everyone knows that enerqy is one of the most important factors in
the development of man's society. Supplies of energy in man's en-
vironment are unlimited; however, only certain kinds of energy and
only a small part of what is available can be put to practical use.
At present organic fuel is mankind's basic energy resource. For a
long time to co~ne organic fuel will be used for various purposea. In
~ cer[ain spheres oE power consumption it would be difficult if not al-
most impossible to replace it. The general purpose motor vehicle is
a ~ood example of this.
There are enormous supplies of organic fuel in the world, which, it
would seem, can meet the needs for energy for hundreds of years to
come. However, the question of ineeting mankind's need for energv
is in reality quite a bit more ~omplex. ~
First, there are not so many inexpensive resources of organic fuel,
the extraction fo which is economically feasible. This limitation ia
especially acutely noted in regard to reaources of petroleum and na-
tural gas, which are the very forms of fuel moat preferred by the
overwhelming majority of energy conaumers and for the technical means
for converting the forma of energy.
~
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000400480053-1
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Secondly, the resaurces of organic fuel are distributed very unevenly
throughout the world. Sume nations of the world, for example ~apan,
have scarcely any at all. Power conaumption in many other countries,
particularly in the majority of West European nations, significantly
exceed their own resources of organic fuel, which forces them to im-
port oil, natural gas and coal. For example, in 1970 France imported
nearly 67 percent of the energy that it needed; by 1977 imports in-
creased to 74 percent. (1l6)
And lastly, a relatively small number of the world's nations are rich
in organic fuel. The best example of thia are the nations of the Per-
sian Gulf. "
In and of itself the unevenness of the distribution of ene=gy resources
might not create any problems if the locations of consumption were not
far from the places where the fuel is extracted. In reality
things stand quite differently: the places where the fuel is consum-
ed are most often far away from where the fue~ is extracted. For this
reason organic fuel in these cases must be traasported to distances ,
ranging from a few hundred to several thousand kilometers. The dis-
tance involved in transporting organic fuel affects its cost and con-
sumer in different ways. The transport of oil and coal by sea is re-
latively inexpensive and the need to move it several thousand kilome-
ters does not significantly increase its cost to the consumer when
compared with the outlays for its extraction. dn the other hend, the
transport of natural gas and the shippin$ of coal by railr~ad is re-
latively expensive. A diatance of aeveral hundreds of kilometers is
a serious economic barrier to transporting both c~al and natural gas.
The transmission of electric power over great distances is also ra-
ther expen:?ive, therefore both natural gas and coal that are located
far from the seacoast, must be viewed as regional energy resources.
This in turn worsens the problem of supplying energy to those nationa
and regions of the world which do not have adequate supplies of ener-
gy of their own.
Finally the key circumstance is the very fact of the dependence of
the importers of organic fuel upon the conditions of import. The es-
calation of prices for oil in recent yeara has rather convincingly
demonstrated the undesirable pro~pect of such dependence for the eco-
nomy of the importing nations. In this manner, in spite of the enor-
mous world supplies of organic fuel, there are very sound reasons for
coming up with other strategies for developing the power industry,
which are based not on organic fuel but on other power resources.
This can be the energy that is obtained by splitting the heavy nuclei
of uranium, plutonium or thorium (nuclear energy), solar eiiergy and
synthetic thermonuclear energy.
Of course, in any strategies that are being thought out~ the switch
in energy resources cannot be inatantaneous. This is a long process,
which may last for many decades. The nations of the world will ac-
complish this in various ways. In all likelihood~ both the rates of
this shift and the composition of the technical means used for adop-
tion will vary.
6
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1
In discussing strategies for switching the power industry from organic
fuel to another resource bas~, we must not forget that organic fusl
has not completely exhausted all of its options. First, many areas
of the world have not been adequately surveqed for sources of fuel.
It is likely that large deposits of oil~ natural gas, and coal will
~ be found. This is what happened recently in Mexico. Secondly, re-
gional organic resources can be made into products that can more easi-
ly be transported. For example, natural gas can be converted intc~
ammonia or methanol and coal into synthetic oil. And lastly, it is
possible to use nonconventional (i.e., not ordinarily used) organic
resources in the power industry. This includes, for example, oil
- that has been aeparated from bituminous sands and shales. Tertiary
methods of extracting organic fuel can be used; this can iacrease
their extractiom from the earth. Nearly all of these and other ad-
ditional possibilities for "extending the life" of organic fuel are
not ~resently being pursued. In addition, the largest deposits of in-
expensive organic fuel are being discovered infrequently; it appears
that there is a limited number of them on the earth. The production
of synthetic oil, gas and coal. just as the assimilation of nonc~n-
ventional organic fuels, is still relatively expensive. For this rea-
san these additional resources of organic fuel cannot weaken our in-
terest in examining the abovementioned alternatives for th~: develop-
ment of the power industry of the future.
The 1960's of the 20th century, when significant progress was achiev-
ed in the field of building nuclear reactors~ cgn be seen as the be-
�~inning of the development of one of the most realiatic alternatives
- the nuclear power industry.
~ The question is whether or not nuclear power is capable of filling
the role of a practically unlimited resource base for the power in-
dustry. And this is not an easy question. There are various pointe
of view on this matter.
The problem is that Ch~ te~hnology for utilizing the energy of fuaion
in nuclear reactors ia dissimilar. The use of thermal neutrons in
nuclear reactions makes it possible to use only 1 to 1.5 percent of
the natural uranium - the basic natural fuel resource of the nuclear
power induatry. The known supplies of inexpenaive natural uranium
in the world are not great. At present, according to data (39, 46)
(not countiag the CEMA nationa and the Korean Peoples' Republic)
there are about 4 to 5 million tons of uranium. Thia ie the equiva-
lent of 50 to 70 billion tons of conventional fuel when uaing this
amount of natural uranium in thermal reactor~. Such an amount of
energy, of course, is not enough for nuclear power to play a global
role in meeting the needs of mankind for energy
There is, however, one other way to extract etaergy from uranium. Thie
involves organizing the nuclear reaction using faet-neutrons. ~A fABt-
neutron reactor, or simply a fast rNactor, can extract from natural
uranium 60 to 70 timea more energy than can be abtained from a therm-
al reactor. What is mc?re, due to the low value of the fuel load the
7
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R000440080053-1
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
faat reactor expands the fuel base of the nuclear power industr~, by
making it competitive with more costly resources of natural uranium.
In this manner the use of fast reactors in princ~ple is already making
it possible to view the development of the nuclear power industry Ss
a way to switch from limited to unlimited sources of energy. There
are also several other additional possibilities for solving this task
within the framework of the nuclear power induatry. This includes
the use of thoriL~m. Lastly, the development of the nuciear power in- ~
dustry to a certain extent determines the prospects of developing
a synthetic thermonuchear power source.
These considerations explain why over a rather long period of time
the optimal strategy for t:~e development of the power industry must
be based upon the use of various sources of ~primary power rather than
upon a single energy resource.
However, all of this is in the future, which uaderscores the impor-
tance of a systematic study of the future of the power industry, in-.
~ cluding the nuclear power industry.
The science of the futute - forecasting - has been developing inten-
sively in rece:.t years. This development is supported not only by
the practical ~irgency that we noted above, but also by a lively in-
terest in the ruture per se.
The number of published works describing varioua aspects of the future
of the nuclear power industry is extremely large; but very few works
which discuss the nuclear power industry as an integral system. There
are even few works which describe the theory and methods for forecast-
ing the development of the nuclear power industry. There has been no-
thing written in world liter,=.ture that deals with this aubject.
The systematic approach is gra~ually finding its way into the method-
ology of forecasting.
Usually, when they speak of the use of the systematic approach, they
are thinking about the need to examine an object of forecasting as a
- system. The methodology that is being developed in this manner for
forecasting is becoming a continuation of the acience concerning a
given object. If it is a complex object, and the nuclear power in-
~ dustry is certainly a complex object, the appropriate methodology of
forecasting becomes complex.
The systematic approach in forecasting, which ia restricted by the
framework of just the object of forecasting, is inadequate. The pro-
bl~m is that if the object is complex, d$ta for forecasting must be
gotten from experts. Such data are of a aubjective nature. For this
reason the methodological examination must include the subject of
forecasting and the forecasting process as the apecific interconnec-
tion of the subject and object in addition to the subject alone.
8
' 3 ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000400480053-1
The methodology that is appropriate to this interpretation of the
systematic approach is called systematic forecasting by the author.
This name underscores the difference between the forecasting of an
object as a system tt?at is most often used. On the other hand, he
manages to avoid the very generalized designations auch as "systema-
tic approach" and "systematic analysis" in designating a more specific
methodology, which is developed below.
This book provides no specific forecasts or predictions. It does not
provide an answer to just how the nuclear power industry wili develop
in this or that nation.
The book poses another task - to obtain an answer to the question of
how one must forecast the development of the nuclear power industry.
- To ans�.~er this question means to create a tool for forecasting.
The examples provided in the book must be seen primarily as an illus-
tration of how the proposed tool for forecasting works. Several re-
sults were obtained through th~ use of mathematical models. The pro-
blem of the conformity of the exogenous (input) data of any real sys-
tem of nuclear power, which were obtained in the modeling procedure,
is not discussed. For this reason the use of modeling results in a
specific applied forecasting task exceeda the fzamework of the book.
The book is divided into three sectiona. The first aection is devoted
to the theoretical-q?ethodological analysis of the stated task. The
first chapter examines the basic circuitry of the conception of sys-
tematic forecasting and provides a psychological analysis of forecast-
ing activity. The second chapter deals with the analysis of the oasic
properties of the nuclear power industry as a system. This analysis
has made it possible to formulate the basic requirements for a method
of forecasting on the part of the object.
The second section of the book develops the key components of a fore-
casting method - the mathematical models of a developing nulclear po-
wer industry. .
The drafting of two basic models is provided - AES /nuclear elect-ric
power station? syatems (chapter 3) and fuel supply systems (chap:er 6).
Examples of estimates on models of AFS system are given in chapter 5.
Chap[er 4 examines questions having to do with the evolution and equip-
ment for modelin~ an ARS system.
The somewhat unusual locatian of material (a review of known models -
chapter 4- fo~lows a description of the proposed model in chapter 3)
is explained primarily by a desire to introduce the readex uaing a
subsequent outline af an AES aystem model as a whole. Following this
introduction the reader will find it easier to follow the progresa in
analyzing various approachea and methods of modeling.
Another reason for this was a desire to shed light on several recent
models, which are described in chapter 3. including that which was in-
fluenced by it.
9
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1
~~R OFFICIAI. USE ONLY .
The third section of the book is devoted to the development of a me-
thod for considering the fundamental phenomenon, which which one has
to deal in forecasting - uncertainty.
Chapter 7 Examines one narrower class of tasks - the selection of an
optimal strategy when faced with uncertainty in economic indicators of
the work of a system. In chapter 8 there is a description of a common
instance of an uncertain situation. Chapter 7 is illustrated with an .
example of using a model to make estimates.
Of course, the list of inethodological questions, which arise during
forecasting, is considerably more extensively examined in the book.
The author did not examine such important questions as the methods of
forecasting the indicators of technical means; he restricts himaelf
to just an examination of systematic tasks.
Everything that is dictated directly by the properties of some apeci-
fic system of the nuclear power industry due to the common methodolo-
gical trend, also, of course, is not covered in the book.
The book contains basically original developments of the author, which
he devised personally, under his guidance or in which he participated;
several of the materials in the book were published in journals pre-
viously by the author.
The author is deeply indebted to A. D. Virtser, with whom the suthor
developed mathematical models of an AES system and a fuel supply sys-
tem and also methods for optimizing in conditions of uncertainty. The
author sincerely thanks D. B. Bogoyavlenskaya, to whom the author is
largely indebted for the interpretation of the psychological problems
of forecasting, V. L. Lokshin for cooperation in developing a fuel
supply system and Yu. S. Lezner for all the work in developing the
computer programs.
The author is very grateful to the responsible editor, Academician M.
A. Styrikovich, for his considerable assiatance in the~preparation of
the book.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword 3
Introduction 7
Section 1: A Methodological Analysis of the Task of Forecasting 13
in the Nuclear Power Industry
Chapter 1
Theoretical-methodological bases of forecasting 14
1.1 Regarding the structure of the science of forecasting 14
].2 Forecasting as the interaction between the subject and ob-
ject 19
1.3 The basic properties of the process of developing an object 21
1.4 The forecasting process and ita psychological aspects 28
10
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404080053-1
Chapter 2
The nuclear power industry as a system during forecasting 46
2.1 Structure of the t~ask of forecasting ir? the r.uclear power
industry 46
2.2 The structure of the system 48
Sectio~t II. Mathematical Models of a Developing Nuclear Power
Industry 56
Chapter 3
Uevelopment of a mathema:.ical model of a fuel suppy system 56
3.1 Modeling diagram of a fuel supply system 57
3.2 Various ways of imitating the use of an AES in an electric
power system 62
3.3 Consideration of the dynamics of the use of an AES in an
electric power system 73
3.4 Fuel balances in a system 79
3.5 Economic indicators of the work of a fuel supply system 87
3.6 Composition of a mathematical model for researching the
alternatives in developing an AES system 10.2
3.7 Imitating in a model the subsequent development of new ~
technical means 103
Chapter 4
The evolution of ideas and equipment in the mathematical model-
ing of fuel supply system for the nuclear power industry 108
4.1 Methods of imitating the maximum economy of natural urani-
um in fuel supply system models 110
4.2 Methods of modeling imitation of the development in accor-
dance with the criterion of minimal cash outlays 124
Chapter 5
An example of the research of various alternatives in the de-
velopment of an AES system using a mathematical model 133
5.1 Accepted conditions for development 133
5.2 Analysis of results obtained 135
Chapter 6
Development of a model of a fuel supply system for the nuclear
power industry 148
6.1 Allocation and analysis of basic factors for consideration
in a model 149
6.2 Modeling diagram of a fuel supply syatem 150
6.3 Description of the processes for refining fuel in a fuel
suppl,y system 154
6.4 Criteria of efficiency of the development of a fuel aupply
system 159
6.5 The method of seeking optimal structures for a fuel aupply
~ystem 161
6.6 The role of the developed model among other models for the
forecasting of a fuel supply~system 166
11
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400080053-1
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
_ Section III. The Forecasting and Selection of an Optimal Strat-
egy for the Deve.lapment cf the Nuclear Power Indus-
try in Conditions of Uncertainty 169
Chapter 7
Considering uncertainty in economic indicators 174
7.1 Method of selecting an optimal atrategy for development
_ when there is uncertainty in the economic indicators 178
7.2 Example of estimating using a model 198
Chapter 8
Considering the uncertainty of future conditions of development
in a generalized instance 214
Conclusion 229
References 231
COPYRIGHT: ~zdatel'stvo "Nauka", 1980
8927
CSO: 1822/18
12
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1
FOR OFF7(:IAL I )NLY
EI.ECTRIC POWER
UDC 621.187.12:628.16:658.3-05
NEW BOOK DESCRIBES OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE OF WATER-TREATI~NT FACILITIES
Moscow OPERATOR VODOPODGOTOVKI in Russian 1981 (signed to press 3 Feb 81) pp 1-5,
301-304
(Annotation, foreword and table of contenta from b~ok "Water Treatment Operator",
by Semen Markovich Gurvich and Yuriy Makaimovich Kostrikin, Izdatel'stvo
"Energoizdat", 30,000 copies, 304 pages]
[Text) This book presents the sum total of information needed by duty peraonnel
of water-treatment facilities at electric-power stations and at industrial and
central-heating boiler plants. It describes the properties of water and the methods
for processing it in water-treatment facilities. The book describes in detail
thase operations which the duty personnel carry out in conducting analyses and in
controlling the water-treatment equipment. The f iret ediLion of the book was pub-
lished in 1974. The second edition was revised based on the readers' wishes.
This book is a practical aid for laboratorq workers and shif t personnel at power
stations and boiler plants, as well as for heat engineers, mechanics, etc.
. Foreword
The necessity for publishing the f irst edition of the book "Water Treatment Oper-
ator" was motivated by the fact that, in the f irst place, domestic literature on
water treatment had not touched upon queetione concerning the activitq of the on-
duty operational personnel in water-treatment installations at electric-power ata-
� tions and in the power-production induatry; in the second place, the duty staff
in water-treatment installations at electric-power stations ia basicallq comprised
of persans who have obtained the bulk of their education in high school and who
have some vocational and technical training. This does not provide them with the
entire sum of knowledge that theae peraonnel need; thirdly, a sizeable cont:ingent
of persons operating water-treatment installations in industrial boiler plants
frequently do not have special training in water technology. Verq often the
operation of such installations at small industrial enterprises is accomplished
by machinists, stokers, etc., doing double-duty.
While writing the manuscript for the first edition of "Water Treatment Operator,"
the authors began with the following considerations.
1. It was necessary? to give the book's readers a brief but sufficientlq complete
idea about the modern state of water-treatment technology here and abroad. Addi-
13
. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
,
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1
FOR OF'FICIAL USE ONLY
tionally, taking into consideration the basic contingent of this book's readers,
it was necessary to keep the book's style as understandable as possible, which,
moreover, would facilitate its utilizazion by individuals in ottier professions
(heat engineers, mechanics, etc.) for general familiarizatian with the basics of
water-treatment.
2. Considering the content of the vocational and technical-training programs which
the operational personnel at water-treatment facilities undergo and the availabilitq
of standardized service instructions and reference r~aterials regarding questions
of water-treatment, the authors have kept the presentation of these probletns to
a minimum in this book. In particular, with respect to these .onsiderationa, the
authors felt it possible when describing equipment at water-treatment installatious
as well as various laboratory instruments and devices to limit themaelves to the
basic layouts of these devices, which would be sufficient to understand their tech-
nological essence.
3. In addition to fulfilling the current duties entrusted to him bq prevailing
instructions, the water-treatment operator must, on the basis of daily ob servation
and a study of the equipment's operation and the technological processes occurring
within it, have the possibility of introducing innovative suggestians with regard
to improving the operational efficiency of the equipment and the installation on
the whole. These suggestions contribute to the conservation of reagenta and water
expended for internal water-treatment facility needs and to a reductian in the
cost of the processed water. Therefore, this book devotes particular attention
to an examination of the easence of the physicochemical processes taking place
in the water-treatment installation's equipment. This should assist the operational
personnel in their work in improving the eff~^_tiveness and the eff iciency of the
equipment they service.
To what degree the content of the f irat edition of "Water Treatment Operator" in-
sured the satisfactory fulfillment of the above~stated considerations one can judge
by the positive responses from individual readers (as well as from several district
power-station chemical services) which the publishe.r and the authors have received.
Moreover, regardless of these responses, one must admit that the f irst edition
of the popular handbook for opergtional personnel at water-treattcent facilitiea
needs further improvement. The book required conaiderable revision and additione,
since water-treatment technology in the large and small-scale power industries
had advanced aignif icantly in the period since the publication of the firat edition.
One must also take into consideration the appearance each year of new personnel
who require such a handbook. Thus, all the stated considerations present a con-
vincing case for the expediency of republishing "Water Treatment Operator."
The moat substantial major changea and additions introduced into the second edition
of this book can be reduced to the following.
New, efficient production processes for water treatment and new equipment which ~
have appeared in recent years are examined. Special water-treatment conditions
and water regimes for ateam generators at atomic electric-power stations are covered.
The status of questions regarding the application of the so-called oxygen regime
for boilers is examined. Detailed queationa concerning the mechanization of water-
treatment facilities and the value of continous water-treatment production processes
are stated. An analysis is given of the application of the prevailing drinking
1!~
FOR OF'FICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1
RI )NLY ~
- and boiler-water standards by operations pe�:sonnel at electric-power stations.
In addition to general questions and the technology involved in dispos3ng of elec-
tric-power station discharges, the book examines methods of switching to closed
sqstems operating with full utilization of all or at least most of the wastes.
Certain chapters concerning the scope of operational physicochemical control over
water and steam and touching upon information relating to basic methods of quantita-
tive analysis and upon the operations executed in conducting this analyeis ha.ve
been revised and abridgecl.
The authors ask that all comments and suggestions regarding the second edition
be sent to: 113114, Moscow, M-114, Shlyuzovaya naberezhnaya, 10, Energoizdat.
Contents Page
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Chapter 1. Bases for the Physicochemical Characteristics of Water and
Aqueous Solut ions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.1. Some inf~rmation f rom phyaics and chemistry. 6

~ 1.2. Structur~ of molecules. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
~ 1.3. Aqueous solutions; electrolytes; dissociation . . . . . . . . 24
1.4. Measuring the concentration of solutions. . . . . . . . . . 28
Chapter 2. Electric-Power Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.1. Classifica.tion of electric-power stations . . . . . . . . 32
~ 2.2. Pure condensing electric-power stations (KES) and their basic
equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.3. Heat-and-electric generating plants (TES) providing electric power,
- heat and steam. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
2.4. Heat-and-electric generating plants providing electric power, heat
and drinking water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
. 2.5. Atomic power stations (AES) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Chapter 3. Water in Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
3.1. Water utilization in industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
3.2. Water utilization ~n heat-and-power engineering . . . . . . . 51
Chapter 4. Water Purification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
4.I. Coarae-dispersion and colloidal impurities in natural waters 53 '
4.2. Water treatment with coagulating agents . . . . . . . . . . 55
4.3. Improving the eff iciency of water purification. 59
4.4. Purification apparatus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
4.5. Water filtration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Chapter 5. Water Softening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5.1. Meaning of water hardness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5.2. Methods of precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5.3. Apparatus for sof tening water by the precipitation method 77
5.4. Liming of water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
5.5. Water softening by cationization . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
i5
F'OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400080053-1
F'OR OF'FICIAL USE ONGY
Chapter 6. Water Desalinization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . l12
6.1. Methods of water desalinization. . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
6.2. Ion-exchange water desalinization . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
6.3. Filters for ion-exchange water desalinization . . . . . . . . 115 .
6.4. Ion-exchange water desalinization installations and their opera-
tional characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
6.5. Thermal water desalinizaCion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
6.6. Electrodialysis method of wat~r desalinization. 124
Chapter 7. Water Deaeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
7.1. General aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
7.2. Thermal methods of eliminating dissolved oxyg~n 130
7.3. Chemical methods of eliminating dissolved oxygen 134 .
Chapter 8. Mechanization and Automation of Water-Treatment Installations . 137
8.1. General aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
8.2. M~echanization and automation of reagent~storage facilities. 140
8.3. Automation of filters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
8.4. Continuous-operation ionite f ilters . . . . . . . . . . . 151
~hapter 9. Boiler Water Regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
9.1. General aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
9.2. Distribution of feed-water impurities in direct--flow boilers 158
9.3. Distribution of feed-water impurities in barrel-type boilers 166
9.4. Scale-formation processes in boilers . . . . . . . . . . . 171
9.5. Steam-quality requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
Chapter 10. Heat-and-Electric Power Station Waste Water and Te~hniques for
Its Degreasing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
10.1. General characteristics of heat-and-electric power station wastes . 179
10.2. Warm water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
10.3. Hydraulic ash-removal water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
10.4. Washing water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
10.5. Oil-fouled water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
10.6. Chemical-purification water . . . . . . . . . . ~ . . . 193
10.7. Treated solutions from wash-off and corrosion-proof ing of thermal-
powCr equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 ~
Chapter 11. Operations Carried Out During Control of Water-Chemical Regimes
and the Operation of Water-Treatment Equipment. . . . . . . . . . 198
11.1. Selecting tests for analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
11.2. Weighted method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ZO1
11.3. Volumetric method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
11.4. Calorimetric method. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
1.1.5. Flame-photometric method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
11.6. Technique of certain operations. . . . . . . . . . . . . '219
_ Chapter 12. Methods for Determining Basic Water-~Quality Indicators During
Operational Control of Water-Treatment and the Water-Chemical Regime 230
12.1. Basic information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
12.2. State of dissolved substances . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
16
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R400440080053-1
~ 12.3. Scope of operational chemical control of ateam and water 239
_ 12.4. Determining water hardness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
12.5. Determining water alkalinity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
12.6. Determin3ag hydrogen-ion conceatration in water 257
12.7. Determining carbon dioxide concentratiaa in water. 259
12.8. Determining phosphate concentration in water 271
~2.9. Determiaing iron concentration in water . . . . . . . . . . 282
12.10. Determining silica concentration in water . . . . . . . . . 288
Appendi~ces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Energoizdat 1981
9512
cSO: 1822/26
' ~ OFF[CIAL U1SC ONLV
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1
,
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
ELECTRIC POWER
WAYS OF IMPROVING FUEL COI3S~IMPTION AT POWER MACHINEBUILDING PLANTS
Moscow PROMYSHLENNAYA ENERGETIKA in Rusaian No 9~Sep 81 pp 2-4
/~Article by Yu. A. Yefimov, deputy minister of power m~chinebuilding,
and A. A. Barabaskin, chief of the adminiatratian of the chief inecha-
nic and chief powex engineer of the USSR Ministry of Power Mact.ine-
building: Ways of Increasing the Efficiency of the Use of Fuel and
Power Re.sources at Enterprisea of the USSR Ministry of Power Machine-
building in the llth Five-Year Plan'_/
/Text% In the lOth Five-Year Plan 42,000 tons of conventional fuel,
nearly 200 million kilowatt-hours of electricity and 325,000 Gcal of
thermal energy were conserved at enterprises of the USSR Ministry of
Power Machinebuilding. This was done by reducing the relative norms
for the expenditure of fuel and energy reaources (TER) for the pro-
duction of basic product. These savings were accomplishect through
organizational-technical measures taken by the enterprises. These
measures included: the modernization and replacement of outdated
equipment, the elimination of small heating boilers,,the ewitching of
boilders to the combustion of natural gas and fuel oil, the adoption
of operating schedules for boilers, heating furnaces and thermal fur-
naces, the carrying out of thermotechnical and electrotechnical tests
of equipment that consumes large amounC of energy. All of theae mea-
sures were taken to establish the optimal expenditures of TER and
others.
A great deal of attention has been devoted to the use of secondary
power resources. Their uae increased by 22 percent during the five-
year plan, amounting to 394,000 Gcal in 1980, or 8.3 percent of the
annual comsumption of thermal energy for production needa�
r'ar the years 1981-1985 the ministry ia to reduce fuel expenditure
norms by 4.5 percent, electric power by 12 percent, and thermal ener-
gy by 7 percent. The ministry and enterprises have prepared organiza-
tional-technical measures aimed at fulfilling their assignments for
conserving TER.
In the ilth Five-Year Plan work will be continued in improving the
existing and in~roducing new, less power-consuming technological pro-
cesses (at present nearly 40 percent of the normative fuel conaump-
tion, 70 percent of the electric power and 20 percent of thermal
18
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000400480053-1
energy are expended for technological needa), the further development
of comprehensive mechanization and automation of production processes,
the adoption in the milling production work of technological processes
which provide a significant improvement in the quality and an increase
_ in the precision of sizes of the billets that are obtained.
In the mechanical processing work, where 35 percent of all electric
power is consumed, there is an anticipated 2-fold increase in the pro-
ductivity of all kinds of machine tools (lathes, milling tools, drills
and boring tools, polishing tools, and others) and a 2.5- to 3-fold
reduction in the labor intensiveness of inechanical processing. These
indicators will be achieved through an improvement in the structure
of the metal cutting machine tool park and the designa of machine tools,
increasing the precision of obtaining billets iforged pieces, stamping$,
and castings), and the intensification of cutting modes.
Within the structure of the metal cutting machine tool park there will
be a 15 to 16 percent increase in the number of high-productive spe-
cialized equipment. This will be done chiefly by increasing the num-
ber of computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools, including
the machine tools of the "processing center" type, the uae of which
will lead to a 1.5 to 5-fold increase in labor productivity. The end
result of optimizing the cutting modes will be a reduction in the ex-
penditure of electric power per product unit.
In forging production wark the exiating proceases will be improved
and new technological processes for forming, aimed primarily at reduc-
ing the manufacturing cycle of a form and casting, will be developed.
Molding and core blends and coatings will be standardized. It is pro-
posed to provide the small-aeries and individual production using four
to six varieties of blends and one to two varieties of paints. By the
end of the five-year plan nearly 80 percent of castings will be pro-
duced using new quick-setting blends, which will make it possible to
save the fuel that is expended in drying furnaces to dry the sandy-
argillaceous blends commonly used now (the amount of fuel consumed in
the drying process accounts for 20 to 25 percent of the consumption
for the smelting of inetal).
Improving the smelting processes includes replacing the cupola smelt-
ing of pig iron with electrainductive amelting, which will result in
a savinga in the use of coke. In the open hearth production work a
substantial savings of fuel is expected as a reault of replacing some
open hearth furnaces with electric arc furnaces (the Production Assoc-
iation "Izhorskiy Zavod" imeni A. A. Zhdanov is projected to carry out
suct. a replacement).
In the forge and press and thermal production facilitiea existing
equipmen[ is to be modernized and new, highly productive equipment is
to be adopted. The technological processes of forging, stamping~ ther-
mal processing in order to obtain precision in the billets obtained~
and the conserving of materials and energy resources are to be im-
proved. In addition it is.planned to adopt highly-productive �orging
19
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000400480053-1
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
and press manipulator units, equipped with high-speed manipulators
with automated control of their work. Such machine units are being
created at the Production Association "Izhorskiy zavod" imeni A. A.
Zhdanov and at the Kramatorsk Plant "Energomashspetsstal"' /special
steel for power machinebuildin~7� The productivity of the forging in
the automated units is 1.8 to 2.2-fold greater than in free forging.
The quality of the forged pieces is significantly higher. And there
are few margins in size, which reaults in a savings~of inetal and
electricity during the mechanical processing of the forged pieces.
In forge and press and thermal production work a large amount of fuel
is expended on heating the metal in the heating and thermal furnaces.
The basic trends in raising the efficiency of using fuel in these
furnaces are: improving the designs, equipping with recovery unita
(using exhaust gases to heat the air entering the combuation chamber)
and automatic temperature control systema and systems for maintaining
the optimal correlation between gas and air, equipping with more ef-
ficient burners (for example, when using GTPS burners in place of TNP
burners there is an approximate 5 to 8 percent rec~uction in fuel ex-
penditure; such burners are used, in several thermal furnaces at the
Production Association "Izhorskiy zavod").
An effective method of reducing the relative expenditures of fuel ~n
thermal and heating furnaces is to reduce losses of heat through the
safety structures by using highly-efficient thermal insulating mater-
ials (in place of the traditionally used firebrick) for the lining of
furnaces, for example the fibriform refractory slabs, which were de-
veloped by the VNIPIteploproyekt /All-Union Scientific Research and
_ Designing Institute of Thermal Equipment?.
Tests of new designs of lininge at the Production Aesociation "Izhor-
skiy zavod" have shown that when uaing the fibriform slaba there is
a reduction in heat losaes and fuel and electric power conaumption
of 15 to 20 percent. There is an 8 to !0-fold reduction in the weight
of the linings and a 2 to 3-fold reduction in labor expenditures for
constructing and repairing linings; the productivity of the furnaces
rises and there is a 10 to 15 percent reduction in the thermal proces-
sing cycle.
In accordance with the plan that the ministry devised in the 11th
Five-Year Plan the modernization of existing and the construction of
new thermal and heating furnaces using fibriform refractory materials
will be continued. This will provide an opportunity to significantly
reduce the expenditure of fuel and electric power during heating and
the thermal processing of manufactured articles (in the production ae-
sociations "Izhorakiy zavod", "Atommash", "Khar'kov turbine plant"
imeni S. M. Kirov, and at the Kramatorak Plant "Energomashspetestal"').
The enterprises of the USSR Ministry of Power Machinebuilding have
their own power generating plante, industrial boilers, a TETs, com-
pressor, pump and oxygen facilities. These plants consume a signif-
icant amount of primary energy resourcea (the boiler facilities and
20
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404080053-1
TETs, for example, consume nearZy 60 percent of the total normative
- expenditu_re of fuel and the compressor facilities consume nearly 18
percent of the electricity expenditure). For this reason a grear
deel of attention will be devoted to the rational use of fuel and
energy at these plants and to improving their operation. The trends
for increasing the efficiency of the use of TER in the power generat-
ing converter and transmission plants and the pipelines along with
,replacing outdated equipment and networks with new ones include:
modernization and rebuilding in order to increase efficiency and re-
liability, reducing to a minimum the losses of the produced power
carriers, and optimizing their use.
The planned modernization of the enterprises' boiler equipment in-
cludes equipping the boilers with sutomated combustion, sutomated
gas analyzers for monitoring the quality of combustion of fuel and
more improved designs of econamizera and blast heaters, replacing
burners with nex~ progressive aesigna and replacing the convection
heat surfaces af the boilers with membrane surfaces. Wear-resistant
coatinga will be applied to the heating surfacea of the pipes of
the boiler units (this includes gae-powder amelting) in order to in-
crease their aervice life, to cut repair coste and to decrease lossea
of TER, caused by emergency ehutdowns of the boilers.
During the last five-year plan in several boiler facilities the PTVM-
50 boilers were modernized: the nozzles were replaced, the heating
surfacea were rebuilt~ additional two-light screens were installed,
and automated burner devices and gas analyzers were installed. In
addition, operating mode measures were undertaken. Aa a result the
productivity of the boilera was increased by 10 percent and efficien-
cy reached 89 percent. Similar work will be done during the Ilth
Five-Year Plan.
A substantial savinga in electricity will be obtained through the
modernization of the c.ompressor plants and the rebuilding o: the
air pipes. The compressor plants will be equipped with units that
regulate productivity and with devices for drying and heating cc~m-
pressed air. The replacement of the circular valves of the piston
compressora with direct-flow valvee will be continued. Thie will
make it possible to reduce the loaseb,~of compreased air and thia in
turn will result in a reduction in che expenditure of electricity.
Replacinq the machine energizers of the compreaeor enginea with
thyristor converters will ensure a reduction in the expenditure of
electricity by one cubic meter of compreeaed air.
An extenaive program is planned in organizing and improving the ac-
counting and monitoring of the expenditure of TER. The accounting
and monitoring is to be done on an individual shop basis, including
~ machine unita that consume large amount of energy. At aeveral of the
large enterprises of the power machiaebuilding sector in the 11th
Five~-Year Plan it is planned to put into operation automated informa-
_ tion-measuring systems for keeping track of and monitoring electric
power.
21
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R000440080053-1
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
The automation of the regLlatian of the parameters of the heat carri-
ers in the thermal networks is to provide considerable savings of ther-
mal energy. :oward this end the Ministry of Power Machinebuilding
and the Ministry of the Electronics Induatry have jointlq developed
a plan to cooperate in the production of electronic heating regula-
tors. Tests of an experimental model of a regulator, which was in-
stalled in 1980 in the administrative building of the Production As-
sociation "Nevskiy zavod" imeni V. I. Lenin demonstiated that when the
temperature of the feed water is automatically lowered at night in the
- sector that is equipped with an automatic regulator, the savings of
thermal energy amounts to 25 to 30 percent.
One of the trends in conserving thermal energy at enterprises of the
power machinebuilding sector is to reduce heat losses of buildings.
For these purposes the plans that are being drawn up call for ra-
tional space-planning and design solutions: the maximum obstruction
of industrial buildings, reducing the perimeter of external walls and
the amount of glass, improvin~ the inaulation of the encloaing de-
signs of the buildings, and adopting more rational heating systems.
Such measures are to be accomplished d4ring the capital repair work
on existing industrial buildings.
In order to use the low-potential heat of the vented discharges at ~
several enterprises of the power machinebuilding sector they are man-
ufacturing experimental models of revolving regenerative heat ex-
changers.
Several organizational measures simed at increasing the savinga and
the efficient use of TER are to be taken. Toward these goals at each
enterprise of the power machinebuilding sector they have created
permanent operating commissions, which are made up of deaigners, pro-
duction engineers, metallurgists, material-technical supply workers~
and representatives from public organizations, as well as power engi-
neers. The job of these commisaions is to: look for ways to conserve
fuel, thermal and electric power, to monitor their expenditure, to
adopt measures for their c~nservation, and to undertake an extensive
education program among the collectives of the enterprises. Theae
tasks can be succesafully eolved only with the conatant work in this
direction of the entire colle~tive of each enterprise.
COPYRIGHT: Energoizdat, "Promyahlennaya energptika", 1981
8927
CSO: 1822/28 END
22
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080053-1