JPRS ID: 10147 USSR REPORT METEORLOGY AND HYDROLOGY NO. 8, AUGUST 1981

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• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/ 10147
1 December 1981
USSR Report
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 8, August 1981
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JPRS L/10147
1 December 1981
USSR REPORT
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 8, August 1981
Translations or abstracts of all articles of the Russian-language
monthly journal METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA published in Moscow by
Gidrometeoizdat.
~ CONTENTS
Anthropogenic Changes in Climate c 1
*Indirect Computation of Characteristics of the Prevailing Wind 15
Investigation of the Energy Cycle in the USSR Hydrometeorological Center Model
of General Circulation of the Atmosphere........................................ 16
Vertical Circulation in the High-Altitude Frontal Zone Over Western Siberia and
Krasnoyarskiy Kray 24
idumerical Model of Pollutant Transport in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer........ 31
Correlation Between the Electrification of Thunderstorm Clouds and Electricity.. 46
*Influence.of Highlands in the Asiatic Territor.y of the USSR on the Thickness of
Glaze and Rime Deposits 57
Model of Circulation of a Baroclinic Ocean Under Inf?uEnce of the Wind and Heat
Flow From the Acmosphere 58
Some Methodological Problems in Applying the Main Co:nponents Method in Studies
of River Runoff Fields ...........o........................... 73
*Evaluation of Parameters of Probability Distributions for River Runoff.......... 74
* Statis.*_ical Characteri3tics of River Bottom Ridged Relief 75
* Computation cf Turbidity Profile in Flow With Transported Sediments 76
* Denotes items which have been abstracted.
- a- [III - USSR - 33 S&T FOUO]
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*Regulation of Phytaclimate as a Means for Substantiating the Components
for Combined Sowings 77
*Investigation of Heat Flows in the Atmospheric Near-Water Layer Under the
Atlantic Tropical Experiment Program 78
Some Applications of the 'Weatherman-Electronic Computer' Dialogue System in
Problems of Routine Data Processing and Numerical Weather Forecasting.......... 79
Experience in Scientific-Operational Hydrometeorological and Ice Data Support
for Winter Voyages in the Arctic 80
' *Catalogue of Ice Encrustations in the Baykal-Amur Railroad Zone, Issue Z:
Ice Encrustations of the Upper Part of the Chara River Bae.in (Katalog Naledey
Zony BAM, Vypusk I: Naledey Verkhney Chasti Basseyna R. Chary), Leningrad,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1980 .........................................................0 86
- *Fiftieth Birthday of Georgiy Vadimovich Gruza 87
Awards at the USSR All-iJnion Exhibition of Achievements in the National
Economy 88
Conferences, Meetings and Seminars 93
*Notes From Abroad 96
*Obituary of Pavel Samoylovich Lineykin (1910-1981) 97
- *Memorial to Grigoriy Ivanovich Shamov (1891-1956) 98
*Denotes iter,is which have been abstracted.
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UDC 551.588.7(100)
ANTHROPOGENZC CHANGES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROL4GIYA in Russian No 8, Aug 81 (manuscript received
10 Feb 81) pp 5-14
[Article by M. I. Budyko, corresponding member USSR Academy of Sciences, E. K.
Byutner, doctor of physical and mathematical sciences, K. Ya. Vinnikov, candidate
of physical and mathematical sciences, G. S. Golitsyn, corresponding member USSR
Academy of Sciences, 0. A. Drozdov, doctor of geographical sciences, and I. L.
Karol', doctor of physical and mathematical sciences, State Hydrological Iilsti-
tute]
[Text] Abstract: The article discusses the problem
. of impending anthropogenic changes in global
climate. It is concluded that the climatic
- conditiona of the end of the 20th century and
especially the first half flf the 21st century
_ will substantially differ from those of today
- under the inflLence of an increase in.the con-
= tent of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere.
The hypothesis'that under the influence of economic activity there can be a change
in global climatic conditions was already expressed in *_he 1930's [33]. The first
scientifir_ cor..ferences on this problem were held in the USSR in 1961 [11] and in
1962 [12]. During the period 1975-1980 there was a series of international and national con-
ferences at which there was discussion of the anthropogenic cl-.ange in modern cli-
mate. Among these conferences was the First World Conference on the Climate Problem
(Geneva, 1979), a series of Soviet-American scientific symposia, the All-Union Con-
ference on Anthropogenic Change in Climate (Leningrad, 1980) and many others. Dur-
ing r.ecent years materials and conclusions from a series of scientific conferences
have been publishecl, as well as the reports of different scientific organizations
on the problem of anthropogenic change in climate [10, 30, 34-36, 39, 41 and oth-
ers]. In these publications the opinion is expresaed that there can be a major
change in global climate in the near future and becauae of this the task of evalu-
ating the anthropoger.ic change in climate is acquiring great practical impurtance.

Natural climatic changes. Anthropogenic changea in global climate are developing
against the bzckground of its natural fluctuations, whose temporal changes fall
in the range from a few years to a time period commensurable with the duration of
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the earth's existence. In a study of mosiern climatic changes it is possible to lim-
it the examination to an analysis of the fluctuations over the period of a century.
A spectral analysis of time series of diffe:Y:ent meteorological elements, including
the mean air temperature of the northern heinisphere, does not reveal a distiiict
periodicty of the natural changes.in climate [8, 14 and others]. However, there
are a considerable number of investigatioas whose authors feel that the natural
fluctuations of climate have a more or Iea.. cyclic character [16, 24, 26 and oth-
ers].
- These studies point out the existence of cyclie fluctuations of climate with a dur-
ation of 1500-2000 years, 300 -500 yEars, 60-120 years (secular cycle) and less than
a hundred years (intrasecular fluc=uations). Bv the term "cyclicity" is meant fluc-
tuations whose periods and amplitudes ca~ vdxy in definite, but rather broad lim-
its. In a number of studtes information on climatic cycles was used in predicting
natural changes in climate [16 and others].
The physical mechanism of modern natural climatic changes is governed to a consid-
erable degree by the attenuation of solar radiation penetrating into the troposphere
by stratospheric aerosol, whose mass is determined by the regime of explosive vol-
canic eruptions [4, 18, 42, 44, 52]. There is basis for assuming, in particular,
that repeated coolings in Europe, accompanied by an increase in ice conzent in the
northern part of the Atlantic Ocean, foz the most part are attributable to a de-
crease in atmospheric transparency after grarap explosive volcanic eruptions. Warm-
ings occur with an increase in transparency in an epoch with a lessening of volcan-
ic activity. Such transparency changes are e8sily traced using data on fluctuations
in conductivity of Greenland ice during the last 250 years [42]; these are associat-
ed with the fallout of the products of val-cznic eruptions.
- A number of studies give a discussion of the problem of the influence of solar ac-
tivity on modern changes in climate. Such an influence can be associated with
changes in the concentration of stratosFher:ic ozone [23]. However, there is no re-
liable empirical confirmation cf the influenc:e of solar activity on climate [25,
54, 55].
Astronomical factors fluctuatione of pararieters of the earth's orbit exert
~ no influence on modern climatic changes becAuae they involve time scales of
thousands and tens of thousands of years. The amplitude of natural climatic changes wh'.ch can occur in the course of the next
decades is small. Thus, in partic.ular, it is extremely improbable that there will
be a deviation from the norm for the mean global temperatute averaged for five-
year intervals greater than 0.25� at the earth's surface under the influence of
natural factors [29]. In this connect3on an anthropagenic warming, changing the
mean global temperature not more than tenths of a degree, can be appreciably in-
tensified (or compensated) by natural climatic changes. Greater anthropogenic
changes in climate, associated witn flur.,tuatjons in mean global temperature by
- several degrees, will considerably exceed the natiiral climatic changes and will
be decisive for the climatic conditions of the future.
Anthropogenic factors in c1iYatic change. According to estiYeates availab].e at the
present time, an increase in the conrent of atmospheric carbon dioxide is the
principal factor exerting an influer..ce ori climate and is a virtually inevitable
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consequence of the development of world electric power production.
A prediction of the consumption of fossil fuel is an important factor on which the
prediction of the atmospheric C02 content in the coming decades is dependent. With
the availability of such a predictiun the computation of the distribution of anthro-
pogenic carbon dioxide among the principal reservoirs, that is, among the atmo-
sphere, ocean and biomass, is carried out by solution of a system of equations de-
scribing the global cycling of carbon. The principal parameters entering into these
equations have been considerably refined during recent years as a result of new
experimental investigations, and in particular, by data from monitoring of the
content of atmosphexic C02, which has been carried out since 1958 [30, 671]. The
results of monitoring indicate a continuous increase in the C02 concentration in
both the northern and southern hemispheres. The mean annual coacentration in-
creased from 315 million-1 in 1958 to 336 milliori 1 in 1978. An analysis of data
from measurements made sporadically in the 19th century gave a concentration of
about 290 million-1 for the middle of the century [30, 33].
Numerous computations [27, 31, 32, 58, 61] of the C02 distribution as a result of
exchange processes occurring between the atmoephere, ocean and biomass predict for
the coming century an iricrease in the fraction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide re-
maining in the atmosphere. This fraction should be not leas than 60% in 2025. Thus,
with retention of the present-day rates of energy development (4.5% annually, see
[39]) and under the condition that coa1L, petroleum and gas in 2025 will constitute
56% of all the energy resources used (which corzesponds to the most probable pre-
- diction of the development of energy [591), the carbon dioxide content in the atmo-
sphere in this case in 2000 will be 380 million-1, in 2025 520 million-1 and
in 2050 750 million-1.
The probable error in these evaluations under the condition that the industrial
effluent is precisely known is about 20%. The resiilts of computations by different
authors relating to temporal changes in C02 cantent in the atmosphere up.to 2100
with identical rates of industrial effluent agree with one another in approximate-
ly this same range. .
The greenhouse effect, caused by doubling of the C02 concentration in the atmo-
spherp, should, as indicated below, result in an increase in mean temperature at
the earth's surface by 2-30C. The scale of these changes will considerably exceed
the changes in the thermal regime on the esrth under the influence of other an-
thropogenic factors.
In principle, all the gases having absorption bands in the IR spectral region can
make a contribution to the greenhouse effect.
Estimates of the direct influence of changes in the content of minor gas components
on the radiation fluxes and on the temperature of different layers of the tropo-
sphere and stratosphere were made for the most part using models of radiational-
convective equilibrium with varioua additional assumptions [29, 60, 63 and others].
In such models it is possible to determine the change in air temperature caused
only by the direct influence of minor gas components on the radiation fluxes. A
warming in the lower troposphere with a doubling of the present-day content of
CH4 and t320 and an unmodified relative humidity will amount to 0.4-0.60; there
will be approximately the same warming of the troposphere with a 20-�old increase
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in its content of freons. A decrease in the content of ozone in the stratosphere
by 30% will result in an increase in the temperature of the lower troposphere
by several tenths of a degree [56].
As is well known [1, 47], minor gas components in the atmosphere actively partic-
ipate in many photochemical reactions with other gaseous and aerosol compounds.
The rate of these reactions is dependent on temperature and the fluxes of ultra-
violet radiation in different layers of the atmosphere. A substantial warming of
the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere with an increase in the C02 con-
centration will exert a substantial influence on the intensity of photochemical
transformations and on the content of minor gas components, whereas the latter
in turn will change the radiation and temperature fluxes. The first attempts at
model investigations of this effect indicated that its influence on the temperature
increase caused by an increase in C02 is small [17].
The atmosphere contains a considerable quantity of anthropogenic aerosol, most of
which is concentrated in the troposphere over industrially well-developed coun-
tries. There are contradictory opinions concerning whether the global content of
aerosol in the troposphere will cease or continue to grow as a result of economic
activit_y [21, 60]. Taking these estimatea into account, the preliminary conclusion
can be drawn that there is no adequate basis for expecting a considerable increase
in the quantity of anthropogenic aerosol, especially since at the present time in-
tensive work is being carried out for purifying the air of populated regions
- against contamination.
The results of different investigations [21, 60] also lead to the conclusion that
the possible relatively sma11 anthropogenic increase in aerosol content in the
troposphere will not result in any considerable climatic effect because on a
global scale it is possible to expect compensation of the effects of heating and
cooling due to the absorption and reflection of radiation by aerosol.
_ The quantity of aerosol of anthropogenic origin in the stratosphere evidently is
small in comparison with the mean natural level arising as a result of volcanic
activity.
According to estimates, the background aerosol forming in the stratosphere during
a period of low volcanic activity (for the most part as a result of oxidation of
OCS gas carbonyl sulfide entering from the troposphere) will reduce the
global temperature of the earth's surface by not more than 0.1�C [2, 62]. Prelim-
inary investigations of the OCS balance in the atmosphere reveal that it is deter-
mined to a considerable degree by anthropogenic sources. The possible increase in
the background concentration of atmospheric OCS during the first half of the next
century will lead to a global decrease in temperature of the earth's surface by
not more than 0.1-0.3�.
Estimates of the influence of development of stratospheric aviation and transport
space vehicles on background stratospheric aerosol content and climate reveal
that this effect will be insigriificant [4, 21]. Thus, the probable increase in
the content of anthropogenic serosol in Lhe atmosphere will not lead to climatic
effects comparable with the effect of the increase in atmospheric C02 content.
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The very same applies to anthropogenic changes in the state of the earth's sur-
face. At the present time these factors are changing the mean global temperature
by not more than 0.1�C [5]. The direct heating of the atmosphere inevitable with
the use of any form of energy can be of definite importance for the climate of the
future. However, computations reveal that the influence of this factor will be
manifested in the more remote future and that during the next 70-100 years it
cannot be comparable with the influence of an increase in the C02 concentration
[401.
Response of climate to changes in climate-forming factors. It is usually assumed
that changes in global climate can be regarded aQ the sum of definite factors and
random changes transpiring under the influence of phenomena external relative to
- the climatic system, which are a result of inatability of the climatic system it-
- self [4, 5].
Among the most general characteristics of the determined component of changes in
global climate is a dependence of inean air temperature at the earth's surface on
changes in the climate-forming factors exerting an influence on the earth's energy
balance.
As a measure of the rssponse of climate it is customary to use estimates of changes
in the global or local climatic characteristics with a stipulated change in cli-
mate-forming factors.
Estimates of the response of the global thermal regime to an additional heat in-
flux or to a change in the atmospheric C02 content werE obtained first in simple
models of the theory of climate [4, 5 and others]. Then they were confirmed and
- made specific by computations using models of general circulation of the atmo-
sphere [47-49, 64, 65], and also empirical estimates based on data from study of
the annual variation of ineteorological elements, on data on modern changes in cli~
mate and on changes in the climate of the past [5, 22, 50 and others].
The computations in [64], agreeing with empirical eatimates in [5, 22, 371, reveal
that changes in the global claud cuver, accompanying changes in the thermal re-
gime, exert little influence on the response of global climate, although this
problem will require further investigations.
According to [35], which gives a review of the results of computations for five
general circulation models, the change in the mean global air surface tempera-
ture with a doubling of atmospheric C02 content is 3+1.5�C. The incomplete coin-
cidence of existing estimates of this parameter is attributable to the presence
of different simplifying assumptions in all models of the theory of c].imate.
The computations in [48, 65] have indicated an appreciable role of allowance for
- the seasonal variation of ineteorological elements in models of the theory of cli-
mate. Accordingly, the computations of response in [48, 57, 65] are the most re-
Ziable. 'I'here seasonal variation is taken into account and this value falls in
the range 2.0-3.3�C. The empirical eatimates in [5, 22, 50�] do not contradict the
theoretical estimates.
The conclusions cited above concerning the response of the global thermal regime
to external factors are correct for stationary or quasistationary climatic
changes. Computations nf climatic changes for several decades must include
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allowance for thermal inertia of the climatic system.
This inertia is related grimarily to the heat capacity of the upper quasihomogen-
eous layer of the ocean and to processes of inter3ction betr:een this layer and
the deeper layers [19, 38, 43]. Estimates of this inertia obtaine3 by means of
models of the theory of climate, taking into account the upper quasihomogeneous
layer of the ocean [43] and by means of an analysis of empirical data on the
modern changes in climate [5, 52], satisfactorily agree with one another and give
a lag time in changes in mean annual air surface temperature of about 10 years.
� With allowance for interaction between the quasihomogeneous la5�er and the deeper
layers this time can be increased [38], but this problem -requires more detailed
study.
Models of the theory of climate make it possible to study the patterns of change
in the zonal and seasonal characteristics of the thermal regime and the moisture
cycle with an increase in atmospheric C02 content, but because ot the approximate
nature of the models the accuracy of these conclusions is less than the aceuracy
of computations of the response of the global mean annual thermal regime.
Quantitative inform;ition on local climatic changes, accompanying changes in cli-
mate of a giobal.scale, can be obtained using models of general circutation of
the atmosphere but also by a statistical analysis of empirical data on changes
in climate during the period of instrumenEal meteorological observations [7, 9, 13,
45, 66 and others].
These estimates can be used as materials characterizing the changes in climatic
conditions with a relatively smai'L increase in the content of atmospheric COZ
if the changes in mean annual air surface temperature in the northern hemisphere
do not exceed 0.5�C.
Empirical information on climatic conditions for a higher atmospheric C02 content
can also be obtained by the use of paleoclimatic data [5-7 and others].
In investigations of evolution of the chemical composition of the'atmosphere it
was found that in the Neogene (3-22 million years ago) the atmosphere contained
a quantity of carbon dioxide exceeding the present-day level by a factor of 2-4
[5, 6]. The use of data on climate of the Neogeae for computations of the thermal
regime and the moistening regime k�ith high C02 concentrations gave results close
to the results of computations using models of general circulation of the atmo-
sphere [5-7].
Computations using models and empirical estimates show that the greatest changes
in surface temperature will be in the polar regione where they can attain 8-100C
with a doubling of the atmospheric C02 content [5-7, 49, 65].
Anthropogenic climatic changes. Since 1972, first in Soviet investigations, and
then in the studies of foreign authors, a number of computations of impending
_ anthropogenic changes in climate were published [3-5, 7, 10, 20, 29, 40]. These
computations were based primarily on an estimate of climatic changes under the
influence of an increase in the atraospheric C02 content. In some of the investi-
gations in this cycle of studies in determining the climatic conditions of the
future the authors employed models of the theory of climate, whereas in other
studies this was accomplished using empirical data on the patterns of change
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of climate in the modern epoch and in the geological past. A fact worth noting is
that the xesults of these computations in most cases agree well with one another.
Evaluations of the climatic change caused only by the increase in the concentra-
tion of carbon dioxide must be considered minimum. In addition, it is improbable
that the influence of other factors will increase the anticipated changes in the
mean global air temperature by more than a factor of 1 1/2.
On the basis of computed data from models of the theory of climate and empirical
models, with allowance for the data cited above on the increase in atmospheric
C02 content, it is possible to obtain the estimates of the anthropogenic change in
mean global temperature cited below for the earth's surface in comparison with the
temperature at the beginning of the 20th century.
Years 2000 2025 2050
Change in mean tempera-
ture, �C 0.9 1.8 2.8
The changes in mean air temperature at different latitudes are not identical. As
noted above, they increase with an increase in latitudE. The nature of this depen-
dence can be seen from data (see below) which give the changes in the mean latitud-
inal temperatures corresponding to an increase in mean global temperature by 10 C.
Latitude, degrees 0 20 40 60 30
- Change in mean annual
temperature, �C 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 3.0
In the middle arid especially fn the high latitudes the temperature changes substan-
. tially in the annual variation, attaining a maximum in winter and a minimum in sum-
mer.
It can be concluded from the data in theae tables, based on materials in [5, 49],
that sea polar ice in the near future must be transformed from perennial to one-
year ice. The problem of the regime of sea ice under conditions of development of
a global warming has been discussed in a number of studies [5, 47, 53 and others].
Taking into account the materials of these investigations and data from the tables
cited above it can be concluded that arctic perennial sea polar ice will be destroy-
ed prior to 2050 and possibly even before 2025.
Data on the impending change in air temperature over the territory of the USSR were
obtained by empirical methods: for the late 20th century on the basis of the pat-
terns.of modern climatic changes [9], for t'lie 21st century on the basis of paleo-
climatic 1) dif-
ferent comnonents and we will denote by c={ctl , Grt ~{Ci} (i = 1, n) the volumet-
ric concentrations of the impurities and the backEound values of the concentra-
tions of pollutants, and by F*s =(FieGci t)} (t = l,n, x=(x,y,z)) the sources
of pollutants. Then the model of transport of pollutants can be described by the
following system of equations: _
` #  >
(19)
o~ -f- u ~z 'u d y+(w - ws) ds Bs s F,. (.r, t),
where
~ y a as a as a as
~ S- aX ax + ay ~lys ay + a= d: ~
a
' s_c,-C, s-={s,l(i=>>n)
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are the deviations of the concentrations of pollutant from their background val-
ues, P-X8, ILys, ~tZS ar.e the coefficients of turbulent diffusion in the direc-
tions x, Y. z respectively, W s= diag tcJis j (i = l-,n) is a diagonal matrix whose
elements are equal to the velocities of gravitational settling of substances (it
is assumed that each substance has its own rate of precipitation),

Bti (x, t) _ 0 (j,l
is a matrix operator describing the interaction of differen*_ substances kith one
another and their local changes. In a general case the matrix elements B(x,t) can
be dependent on the values of the fielda of ineteorolo&ical e'Lements and on the
concentrations of pollutants. If Bij(x t) =^0 (i,j = l,n, i=# J), the pollutants
do not interact with one another, but if B(x,t) = 0, the pollutants will be called
passive. We also note that the sources can not only eject pollutants, but also ab-
surb them.
In evaluating the effect of pollutanta on a specific physiographic region it is of
prar_tical interest to evaluate the contamination of individual sectors of the
ground surface diff ering with respect to physical praperties (water bodies, forests,
soil, etc.). Accordingly, one of the parametera which must be determined is the
quantity of pollutants entering from the atmosphere onto a specific sector of the
underlying surface. It is known that the distribution of pollutants, esgecially in
the lower layers of the atmosphere, is essentially dependent on stratification,
wind velocity and other characteristics of the surface layer [1, 2, 14]. According-
ly, the interaction of pollutants with the underlying surface will be taken into
account in.parameterized form.
We will write the equation for the balance of pollutants at the roughness level
[12]. Assuming that each of the components of the pollutants interacts with the
ground surface independently of the others, we obtain
".1 of' - W.jci - ijr - fs~ (x, t' tl (r = i, n), (20)
where /asi(i = l,n) are values having the dimensionality of velocity and character-
izing the interaction of pollutants with the underlying surface. It is easy to see
that the condition p Si = 0 corresponds to reflection of pollutants from the ground
surface, )B g i= ao is the total "absorption" of the pollutants, 0 .
s~ s; - ol;_112 (su) - (Q 0 - o~ ui+3/2) Or~-a1: (us) -
-c (1 -o~ 111-112 )Ai-i1s (uc) -I-(1 -au,+1l'-* -0c)AtJ.11Z(us)] +
4 lzC R( 7OR 1 - 96ul--3i2 ) 111+311 (US) 02U111/2 ) Al-{-1/2 (110] -
~ 1)[(1-05 u;T1 1:)o1+112 (11s)-
-
where ur-112 ) ~,!->>s (us)11, ec nu u < 0, oe at �ot ot ot
J = L~ , �l = 71_1 . Qa = ~x1+1' ~e - px~_i' , ~zi_21
- er 'Ir - �L - ~xi ~ �a = ~ , ~t-]!= _ (us) _ (~)r - (us),-,,
l+1
O1-}1(2 (us) � (uS)1+I ljlS)lr .
041, 0C 2 are nonnegative coefficients assuming the value 0 or 1.
Depending on the values of the coefficients 041 and 0'-2 we obtain the follnwi.ng ~
schemes: 041 = 0, o", 2= 0 are schsmes of directed differences of the first order '
of accuracy, p~l = 1, 0~2 = 0 is a nonmonotonic scheme of the second order of ac-
curacy [19], D41 = 1,pg2 = 1 is a monotonic scheme of the second order of accuracy. '
Scheme (37) is stable if there is satisfaction of the condition
lul-it
Azj
_ and the monotonic behavior conditions with Ly 1 = 4C-2 = 1 are determined by the in-
equality '
s~.:'~ s � .
0~-
(38)
and by the choice of the function R(VZ) in the form
HI + 1 . , (39)
for any rtvalue stipiiiated at the points of intersection of the grid region by the
expression li - 4i+l/2 s/"i-1/28� With a apecific nwnerical realization the
;rid function R(Y~i) can be determined by the expression
R(7U) S't I 5; ~ st- sl-I ~ s1 fl - sl.I + I Si - sr_I ~l. (40)
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If the denominator in (4Q) is equal to zero, then R(Yti) also can be equated to
zero.
We note tliat if the grid is nonuniform in space variahles, the scheme (37) is of
the first order of approximation. The turbulent exchange equation (39) is solved
in the second stage by the method of splitting in epace variables with the use of
implicit approximations. In the third stage ttte system (35) is approximated in time
at each point of the grid region with not less than a second order of accuracy.
The structure of the approximation is determined by the method of stipulating the
operator B(x,t). Since the number of substances in solution of practical problems
is not great, the accomplishment of the third stage is by means of modifications
of standard algorithms for solution of systems of ordinary differential equations..
The essence of the modifications ia an allowance for the difference in the charac-
teristic time scales of interaction of different substances.
Using the model described above, we carried out a series of numerical experiments
for the purpose of studying the processea of propagatiran of pollutants in the at-
mospheric boundary layer. In all the computations the components of the velocity
vector and some characteriatics of the aurface layer were obtained using a model
of atmospheric dynamics with the followir.g values of the input parameters:
H= 1750 m X= 68 ktn h= 50 m dx =L~y 4 km
Q z= 100 m,~if z~ 200 m and Q z= 15~0 m with z> 200 m,
a= 0.035 m/(sec2��C), , Q = 10'4 sec'1, � X = � y = zooo m2/ sec,
- S= 3�10'3 C/m, zp = 0.01, cp = 0.24 cal/sec, a3 = 0.56.
b3 = 0.08, Uback � -5 m/sec,
Vback � 0�
- 90
� ~~M

p~
` s
/ . +4

12 18 24 70 t v hours
Fig. 1. Normalized value of maximum concentration of pollutant at level z= 50 m
witti and without allowance for parameterization. 1, 2, 3, 6 were obtained with al-
lowance for the boundary conditions (24) with values A S= 10-6 m/sec, 0.5 m/sec,
10-3 m/sec, 10-3 m/sec respectively and the curvea 4, 5 without allowance for para-
meterization (with PS= 0 and ~ S= 0.5). The curve 6 corresponds to a solution
with the coefficient r.ys, computed using formula (31).
_ The moment in time t= 0 corresponds to 0600 LT. The coefficients of vertical tur-
vulent exchange in the interval h< z4H were stipulated in the form yi(z) = Yi(h)
(i = u, v, 8 , s), and the coefficients of horizontal turbulence were assumed to be
equal for all stubstances. The relative humidity and temperature over the water
surface were stipulated using the Magnua formula. '
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IW
y ~rH
a) a)
~ p ! 4 f
t0
0
60 r .
c)
. 1
0 20 90 60
f--~--~
6) C~`'~~
b )
n
d) ~
r.~
?D f0 .r KM
Fig. 2. Isolines ot normalized concentration of po7.lutant at level 2= 50 m in
plane (x, y). a,b) solutions for time t m 12 houra with values A s= 10-5 m/sec
and A S= 10'3 m/sec; c, d) same for t- 18 houra. The isolines at the center are
the maximum values of the concentration.49.3, 93.1, 47.6 and 76.1 respectively.
~ y,rn Q~ t
y0
a)
?0
I~
~
.0
v
!1
b) ~ i
t) ~
t~
d)
0 tD 90 ~ ~�n
Fig. 3. Isolines of normalized concentration of pollutant with value P = 0.5 m/sec
at level z= zo (a,b) and at altitude z= 50 m(c, d). a, c correspond to the mo-
ment in time t a 12 hours, b, d) time t a 18 hours. The isolines at'the center cor-
respond to maximum values of the concentration 1.4, 2.7, 42.4 and 76.8 respective-
ly.
We will cite examples of propagation of a aingle-component passive pollutant from
a continuously operative point source aituated at an altitude z= 250 m at a
point with the coordinat2s x= 56 km, y - 36 km. Integration in time was carried
out in an interval equal to 24 hours. We recall that for a passive pollutant
B(x t) = 0. Figure 1 shows curves of the concentration of pollutant at an altitude
z= h, normalized to a maximum value, in dependence on the parameter A8 and the
mettiod for stipulating the lower boundary condition vertically for equation (19).
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_ The curves 1, 2, 3, 6 correspond to solutions with boundary conditions in para-
meterized form (25) and the curves 4, 5 correspond to conditions witfiout para-
meterization. It follows from tfiis figure tfiat at an altizude z= h with all
values of the P parameter the maximum value of the normalized concentration of the
passive pollutant with parameterized allowance for the boundary condition is
found to be larger than with stipulation of the conditions without parameteriza-
tion. This can be attributed to the fact that the surface layer exerts a screen-
- ing influence on the propagation of pollutants. It can be seen that this influ-
ence is essentially dependent on the turbulence characteristics in the surface
].ayer. Curve 6 corresponds to solution of a problem with a transverse diffusion
coefficient determined using formula (31). _
b)
zKn a)
47S a )
p,5 C) J 1
d) ?D 4 60yKn .0 ?D fB x Kh ~
Fig. 4. Isolines of riormalized concentration in planea x,z (a,c) and y,z (b, d)
with R S= 10-6 m/sec, for times t= 24 hours (a,b) and t= 27 hours (c,d)..
Such a method for stipulating horizontal turbulence does not lead to significant
qualitative changes in the distribution of a pollutant in comparison with the dis-
tributions obtained with constant turbulence coefficients. This was evidently
caused by the poor resolution of the numerical model in space variables, not mak-
ing possible a detailed description of emall-scale diffusion processes. At a dis-
tance of several hundred meters from the source the dependence of the solution
- on the method for stipulating the diffusion coefficients is significant. The re-
sults of computations cited in Fig. 1 also demonstrate the dependence of the dis-
tribution of a pollutant in the boundary layer on, the )9S parameter. It was found
that the YgS parameter need only be stipulated in the interval 10-5,ps < 1. Be-
yond the limits of this interval the computed distributions of pollutants are
slightly sensitive to changes in the PS parameter; it can therefore be assumed
that in the model the value P 8= 1 corresponds to the case of complete "absorp-
_ tion" of pollutants by the earth's aurface and 10-5 corresponds to complete
"reflectlon."
Figures 2-4 show the two-dimensional sections of the fields of concentrations of
pollutants, normalized to the maximum value, for different values of the PS par-
r3meter at different moments in time. Figure 2 shows the fields of the normalized
concentration at the altitude z= 50 m in the plane (x,y) for the moments in time
t= 12 hours and t= 18 hours with different values of the A parameter, and in
Fig. 3 we have shown the concentration with p s = 0.5 m/sec at the level z= zp
and z = SO m.
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Figure 4 shows vertical sections of the isolines of concentrations in the planes
(x,z) and (y,z) for t= 24 hours and t= 27 hours with a value of the flS para-
- meter 10-6 m/sec. In all the figures 2-4 the isolines with the nimmber 1 corres-
- pond to the minimum concentrations.
_ Constructively the realization of the model of transport of pollutants in the
boundary layer was accomplished within the framework of a base model for study of
the influence of the results of man's activity on the atmosphere. One of the as-
pects of this base model is discussed in [9]. The joint modeling of atmospheric
dynamics and the transport of pollutants has a series of advantages because with
such an approach it is possible to take into account the inverse influence of fac-
- tors of anthropogenic origin an the atmospfiere at local and global scales.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Berlyand, M. Ye., SOVREMENATYYE PROBLEMY ATMOSFERNOY DIFFUZII I ZAGRYAZNENIYE
ATMOSFERY (Modern Problems in Atmospheric Diffusion and Atmospheric'Contamin-
ation), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1975.
2. Byzova, N. L., RASSEYAPlIYE PRIMESI V POGRANICHNOM SLOYE ATMOSFERY (Scattering
of a Pollutant in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1974.
3. Vel'tishcheva, N. S., "Modeling of Contamination of the Urban Atmosphere From
a Series of Continuous Uplifted Sources," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteor-
ology and Hydrology), No 3, 1975.
4. Garger, Ye. K., "Transverse Diffusion in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer,"
TRUDY IEM (Transactions of the Institute of Experimental Meteorology), No 15
(60), 1977.
5. Gol'din, V. Ya., Kalitkin, N. I. and Shishova, T. V., "Nonlinear Difference
Schemes for Hyperbolic Equations," ZhVM-MF (Journal of Computational Mathe-
matics-Piathematical Physics), Vol 5, No 5, 1967. '
6. Yeliseyev, A. S., "On Horizontal Scattering of a Pollutant in the Atmosphere,"
TRUDY GGO (Transactions of the Main Geophysical Observatory), No 172, 1965.
7. Kazakov, A. L. and Lazriyev, G. L., "Parameterization of the Surface Layer of
the Atmosphere and the Active Soil Layer," IZV. AN SSSR: FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I
OKFANA (News of the USSR Academy of Sciences: Physics of the Atmosphere and
Ocean), No 3, 1978. Marchuk, G. I., CHISLENNOYF RESHENIYE ZADACH DINAMIKI ATMOSFERY I OKEANA
(Numerical Solution of Prohlems of Dynamics of the Atmosphere and Ocean),
Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1974.
9. Marchuk, G. I., Penenko, V. V., Aloyan, A. Ye. and Lazriyev, G. L., "Numerical
Piodeling of the Microclimate of a City," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Metebr-
ology and Hydrology), No 8, 1979.
44
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10. METEOROLOGIYA I ATOMNAYA ENERGIYA (Meteorology and Atomic Energy), Leningrad,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1971.
11. Monin, A. S. and Yaglom, A. M., STATISTICHESKAYA GIDROMEKHANIKA (Statistical
Hydromechanics), Part 1, 14oscow, Nauka, 1965.
12. Penenko, V. V. and Aloyan, A. Ye., "Numerical Method for Computing the Fields
of Meteorological Elements in thL Atmospheric Boundary Layer," METEOROLOGIYA
I GIDROLOGIYA, No 6, 1976.
13. Penenko, V. V., Aloyan, A. Ye. and Lazriyev, G. L., "Numerical Model of Local
Atmospheric Processes," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 4, 1979.
14. Yaglom, A. M., "Turbulent Diffusion in the Atmospheric Surface Layer," IZV.
AN SSSR: FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 8, No 6, 1972.
15. Bram van Leer, "Towards the Ultimate Conservative Difference Scheme. 2. Mono-
tonicity and Conservation Combined in a Second-Order Scheme," J. COMPUT.
PHYS., Vol 14, 1974.
16. Csanady, C. T., "Diffusion in an Ekman Layer," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 26, No 5,
1969.
17. Egan, B. A. and itagoney, J. R., "Application of a Numerical Air Pollution
Transport Model to Dispersion in the Atmosphere Boundary Layer," J. APPL.
METEOROL., Vol 11, No 7, 1972.
18. Fromm, J. E., "A Method for Reducing Dispersion in Convective Difference
Scheme," J. COMPUT. PHYS., Vol 3, 1968.
19. Liu, C. Y., Goodin, W. R. and Lam, C. M., Numerical Problems in the Advec-
tion of Pollutants," COMPUTER METHODS IN APPLIED MECHANICS AND ENGINEERING,
1976.
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UDC 551.594.21
CORRELATION BETWEEN THE ELECTRIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA IGIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 8, Aug 81 (manuscript received
12 Jun 80) pp 44-51
[Article by B. I. Zimin, candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, Central
Aerological Observatory]
[Text] Abstract: This is a review of f ield inves-
tigations of the thunderstorm process carried
out dur{ng the last 30 years in different geo-
graphical regions of the earth. The author gives
the results of 10 years of observations of thun-
derstorms in Moldavia and the Crimea carried out
using radar, thunder recorder, lightning photo-
recorder and a pluviographic network. The re-
sults obtained by the author confirm the re-
sults obtained by other researchers on the pri-
- mary role of precipitation in the mechanism of
electrification of thunderstorm Cb and make it
possible to establish a statistical dependence
between the intensity of precipitation and the
~dimensions of thunderstorm cells, on the one
hand, and the intensity of lightning discharges
(frequency of lightning) on the other. The great
number of ineasurements, especially accumulated
, in the temperate latitudes, gives basis for as-
suming that the electrification of thunderstorm
Cb is related to the growth of solid particles
in these clouds.
The mechanism of electrification of a thunderstorm cloud still remains one of the
unsolved problems in cloud physics. Despite a great number of experimental and
theoretical investigations in this field (see book by B. J. Mason [10], N. S.
Shishkin [16], I. M. Imyanitov, et al. [5], V. M. Muchnik [12], J. A. Chalmers
[15]), up to now there is no unanimous opinion concerning the principal reasons
for the electKification of a thunderstorm cloud. However, most researchers feel
that the principal mechanism of electrification of Cb is related to the formation
of precipitation particles in a cloud and the gravitational separation of par-
ticles of different sizes.
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Review of Studies
In the clarification of the principal processes of separation and accumulation of
an electric charge in thunderstorm clouds an evaluation of the correlation be-- .
tween the electric and meteorological parameters of Cb can be of considerable as-
sistance. In a number of studies attempts have been made to establish a correla-
tion between the lightning activity of a cloud and the strength of the electric
field in the atmosphere, on the one hand, and the vertical thickness of a cloud,
precipitation and radar reflectivity, on the other [1, 7, 9, 11, 16, 30, 48, 57].
The results of these studies indicate the existence of a direct correlation be-
tween the electric and meteorological characteristics of a thunderstorm cloud.
The extremely detailed investigations of J. Kuettner, carried out in the 1940's
in West Germany on the Zugspitze (elevation 3 km above sea level),indicated that
in 93% of the cases of observations in thunderstorm clouds there was a predomin-
ance of solid precipitation elements. The central region of thunderstorm activity
coincided with the region of most intensive precipitation [30].
During the last 30 years many new data have been obtained for different geograph-
ical regions confirming the reality of the assumption of the presence of a correl-
ation between the electrification of a thunderstorm cloud and the precipitation
formation process. Among these we should note the results of investigations by
V. M. Muchnik in the Ukraine [12], S. Reynolds and M. Brook, and also P. Krehbiel,
et al. in New Mexico in the United States [28, 29, 48], R. Kidder in South Africa
[26], H. Larsen and E. Stansbury in Quebec, Canada [31], H. Hiser in Florida [24],
G. Kinzer in Oklahoma [27], W. Sand, D. Musil and R. Schleusener in Colorado [SO]
and others [14, 25, 37, 46, 51, 55].
The results of investigations by the above-mentioned authors convincin:gly support
the existence of an effective precipitation-forming mechanism of thunderstorm
electrification. At least in the temperate latitudes it is possible to trace the
correlation between the electrification of a thunderstorm cloud and the formation
and growth of'solid hydrometeors in Cb.
An example o� extremely correct observations is the investigations of the local-
ization of lightning carried out by Kidder [26], ICrehbiel, et al: [28, 291. In
determining the coordinates of lightning discharges of the cloud-to-earth type
Kidder used the base observation method employing cameras and cathode direction
finders. The registry of lightning was accompanied by radar observations of clouds
and precipitation. Circular-scan cameras were set up at the corners of a trapezium
at a relative distance 25-40 km. The error in determining the bearing of lightning
was t0.5�. A comparison of the results of registry of lightning with maps of the
radio echoes of cl_ouds indicated that lightnin3 was observed in the zone of heav-
iest Precipitation and closer to the leading edge o� the precipitatian.
In order to localize the discharges of lightning and its individual strokes, the
number of which in one lightning event could attain 6, Krehbiel, et al. invesiigat-
ed a thunderst.;rm over a polygon equipped with a radar and eight instruments for
measuring electric field strength. It was established that the centers of the
disctiarges were at altitudes 4.5-6 km (wj.th a temperature -9 --17�C) and coincid-
ed with the precipitation formatiozi cells.
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_ The correl.ition between lightning activity and the �ormation of solid hydro-
meteors is indicated, in particular, by the results of aircraft investigations
made by D.FiCtszheral'd [14], W. Sand, et al. [50] and E. Pybus [46], who regis-
tiered the greatest electrical (lightning) activity during flight through cloud
- zones with maximum radar reflectivity, where the falling of graupel and hail was
_ observed.
The results of ineasurements of the altitude of the upper boundary of the radio
echo of clouds in Leningrad [8, 13], Dnepropetrovsk [12], New Mexico [48] and .
Florida [24] indicated that the peaks of thunderstorm clouds are in the regi4n of
negative temperatures (usual_ly below -20�C), which also is evidence that the el-
ectrification of Cb in the temperate and subtropical latitudes is usually observ-
ed when solid particles of precipitation are present in the clouds.
On the basis of the correlation between lightning and the quantity of precipita-
� tion est;iblished by L. Battan in observations of thunderstorms in Arizona it was
possible to estimate the qtiantity of precipitation corresponding to one lightning
discharge (3�104 tons af water per discharge) [18]. A similar estimate was made
by G. Kinzer for thunderstorms in Oklahoma, according to whi%h the mean mass of
falling precipitation per.one lightning discharge was 1.6�10 tons [27]. The cor-
relation between the frequency of lightning and the intensity of precipitation
- during observations of thunderstorms was noted by N. S. Shishkin in Leningrad [16],
E. Parczewski in Poland [45], V. M. Muchnik in the Ukraine and in the Valday [12].
N. S. Shishkin expressed in analytical form the correlation between the frequency
- of lightning and the intensity of precipitation and the correlation between the
total number of lightning events and the quantity of precipitation falling from
thunderstorm clouds [16].
J. Latham evaluated the role of precipitation f.ormation in the electrification of
thunderstorm clouds [32] and demonstrated that with an intensity of precipitation
greater than 0.25 mm/min there can be a charge accumulation in convective clouds
- which is adequate for the development of thunderstorm phenomena.
B. J. Mason, on the basis of a critical arialysis of the results of investigations
of atmospheric electricity carried out primarily in Western Europe and the United
States in 1950-1970 [6, 15, 17, 20-22, 30, 33-36, 38, 43, 44, 47, 49, 52], devel-
- oped a scheme of electrificat.ion of a thunderstorm cloud when there is collision
of cloud particles (crystals and droplets) with polarized charged grains of grow-
ing graupel [39]. According to this scheme, the strength of the electric field,
beginning growth from a value 0.5 KV/m (in accordance with the fields measured in
cumulus clouds not yielding rain), gradually, over the course of 400 sec, at-
tains values 10 KV/m. Then in 120 sec it increases to 420 KV/m, after which the
growth of the field is slowed down since the effect of the electrical forces on
the charged particles and stray currents augments and counteracts an initial charg-
ing current. The increase in electric field strength ceases upon attaining 450 KV/
m 9 minutes after the onset of falling of precipitation.
.Since the mechanisms of induction charging are self-limiting and cannot generate
macroscale fields with a strength more than 500 KV/m, Mason assumes that the ini-
tiation of lightning can occur in local regions of a cloud of lesser volume with
a stronger field or with streamers, beginning from a coronal discharge at the
surface of the precipitation particles [39].
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According to the results of Mason's computations, the electric field strength at-
tains 450 KV/m (after which there is a lightning discharge) with the intensity of
precipitation attaining 0.6 mm/min. The separated charge in a cell with a radius
of 1 km will be 12.5 Klux, in a cell with a radius of 2 km 50 Klux, in a cell
with a radius of 5 km 312 Klux. Assuming that in the first case the lightning
discharge neutralizes 10 of the 12.5 Klux of the separated charge, Mason finds
that the field strength almost instantaneously decreases to 90 KV/m, and then be-
~ gins to be restored. With a constant intensity of precipitation of 0.6 mm/min at
the predischarge moment the field strength would be restored to 420 KV/m after
36 sec. If on the average for a size of the thunderstorm cell R= 2-3 km the
lightning would neutralize 20 Klux, the field would decrease to 270 KV/m and would
be restored to 420 KV/m after 20 sec. In a large cell R= 5 km a lightning dis-
~ charge of 30 Klux would decrease the field to 405 KV/m and its restoration would
require S sec. Thus, the intensity and frequency of the lightning discharges in-
crease with an increase in the size of the thunderstorm cells.
- According to V. M. Muchnik [12], the formation and separation of electric charges
adequate For the development of lightning will occur only in the processes of
growth of solid hydrometeors (graupel and hail).
Contradicting the opinion of a dominant role of precipitation in the electrifica-
tion of a thunderstorm cloud, R. Vonnegut and C. Moore deny the correlation be-
tween thunderstorm phenomena and precipitation and assume, in agreement with G.
Grenet [23], that the pri.ncipal charge carriers are cloud droplets and.the sep3r-
ation of electric charges occurs as a result of convective movements within the
cloud [41, 53, 54]. On the basi5 of observations in New Mexico, the correctness of
which has been questioned by B. J. Mason [39] and V. M. Muchnik [12],they conclud-
ed that precipitation is not the cause of lightning, but its consequence. The role
of convection in this scheme essentially involves the transport and distribution
of light ions on cloud droplets and the growth of precipitation particles occurs
as a result of the electric coagulation of droplets.
The assertion of the adherents to the Grenet-Vonnegut scheme or the convective
theory of a thunderstorm that precipitation is not mandatory for the generation
- of lightning contradicts numerous abservations in different regions of the earth
and seems poorly validated.
It should be noted that in this same New Mexico similar observations of thunder-
storms, made by S. Reynolds, M. Brook and others, led to directly opposite con-
clusions [29, 48]. Nevertheless, the discussion initiated at the International Con-
ference on.Atmospheric Electricity in Montreux in 1963 [38, 41, 54, 56] between
the adherents and opponents of the precipitation-forming mechanism of electrif-
ication of a thunderstorm cloud has not ended. It was renewed at the Fifth Inter-
national Conference on Atmospheric Electricity in 1974 and is continuing on the
pages of scientific journals [40, 42].
Some Results of Investigations of Thunderstorm Clouds in Moldavia and the Crimea
In the cotirse of 10 years in Moldavia (from 1967) and in the Crimea (from 1968 to
1970) we carried out observations of thunderstorms from May through September
with the use of radar stations, pluviographic network, thunderstorm recorders
(lightning counters) and lightning photorecorder [2, 4]. Observations have shown
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that in both Moldavia and in the Crimea lightning was observed only from clouds
the altitude of the upper bounda'ry of whose radio echoes exceeded 6-7 km. With
gn increase in the altitude of the radio echo the number of lightning events in-
creased [3]. These observational data agree with the results cited in [8, 12, 13,
48, 51]. NAv
300
ZOB
100
�
M actual 06
~
y
� �
? �r
� ~
� I~~
~ � .
.
? + computed
Fig.�l. Distribution of areas of thunder- Fig. 2. Correlation between actual and
storm cells. computed frequencies of lightning
(min-1) from thunderstorm cells.
On the basis of observations in Moldavia data were obtained on the size, li�etime
and lightning activity of thunderstorm cells. The thunderstorm cell was determined
_ by the area bounded by closed radar reflectivity isolines, equal to 103 mm6/m3.
The legitimacy of such a determination method was validated by our observations
using a radar and a lightning photorecorder. These observations made it possible to
localize a thunderstorm cell with an accuracy in azimuth of 1� [4].
Figure 1 shows a histogram of the frequencies of recurrence (with respect to the
number of cases) of areas of thunderstorm cells on the basis of data from 775 cases
of radar measurements in 194 Cb. The areas of the cells were determined from con-
ir_al horizontal sections of clouds at the level of the altitude of the zero iso-
therm by planimetric measurements on sheets plotted from photographic images of
zones of increased radar reflectivity. On the basis of the areas of the cells, ap-
pr.oxjmated by circles, it was posaible to determine their size (diameter).
The horizontal extent of the thunderstorm cells varied f.rom 2(weak thunderstorm)
to 10 km (strong ttiunderstorm). The mean size of the cells was 5 km. The vertical
extent of the cells, according to data from radar observations, exceeded 6 km and
attained 14 km.
Thunderstorms in Moldavia have a predominantly frontal character and continue up to
6 hours or more. However, the life of individual cells usually did not exceed 1
hour and thunderstorm phenomena ceased 10-20 minutes prior to the ending of the
falling of rain to the ground (the elevation of the hilly plain of central and
50
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nortliern Moldavia, where the observations were made, does not exceed 300-400 m
above sea level). New cells most frequently were generated on the right flan.k in
the direction of cloud movement. The number of thunderstorm cells attained 6. Uni-
_ cellular thunderstorms generated 0.2-5 discharge (s) /minute, and multicellular
thunderstorms generated up to 50 discharges/minute.
Our observations of precipitation f rom 500 Cb over an area up to 3,000 1m2 with a
density of the pluviographic network of approximately 1 instrument per 30 km2 in-
dicated that in 90% of the cases thunderstorm phenomena were noted in those clouds
from which rain fell with an intensity of more than 0.1 mm/min. The maximum inten-
sity of precipitation from thunderstorm clouds usually did not exceed 3-4 mm/min.
Our investigation of the correlat
graphic network and the frequency
dimensions were determined by the
in the form
f =HuP - Ht=
light
Ht = 0o
ion between the rainfall intensity in the pluvio-
of lightning from a thunderstorm cell, whose
radar method, indicates presence of a dependence
-20� R OC (P - PO)
Rp Hlow ~
where flight is the frequency of lightning, min 1; Hup is thealtitude of the.cloud
radio echo, km; Ht =-200 is the altitude of the isotherm -200C, km; Ht = po is the
altitude of the zero isotherm, lan; HloW i.s the artitude of the cloud base*; R is
- the radius of the thunderstorm cell, km; p is the intensity of precipitation, mm/
min; a is a correction factor dependent on the period p of averaging; Rp = 1 lan;
pO = 0.1 mm/min. With HuP000
- 20G0
Nr
6-~
;S -
u 8~
oo~L- - ~
~
_ Fig. 3. Meridional sections of temperature along western shore of ocean in cases:
a) nonallowance for wind, b) heat flow, c) drift advection of heat; d) changes in
sign of heat flow and Elanan velocity.
y Q 4-4 0 4-4 0 4-4 0 4-4 0 4
~ y
sc~~ ~ I ~ Y ' l
i 10001 ~ ~ i ~ i d I T
~ 1SOU
~ I ~ i . ' ~ . � (
2000,
i
?S00
3000 3500 ~
NM 4 A i 6 B D C ~ D E
FiF,. 4. 7.onal velocities in eastern part of the ocean (cm/sec) at points corres-
ponding to latitudes 14� (solid curve) and 41� (dashed curve) and corresponding
directions of vertical compensation movements in coastal boundary layer (arrows).
According to the studies of Johnson [20, 21] the divergence of zonal velocity in
the region of the east coast boundary layer is counteracted for the most part by
vertical movements. If, on the basis of this hypothesis, the qualitative distrib-
ution of vertical velocity in the boundary layer is determined (see Fig. 4), for
all vari