JPRS ID: 10078 USSR REPORT HUMAN RESOURCES

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• Content Type: REPORTS

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- JPRS L/10078
27 Qctober 1981
USSR Re ort
p
- HUMA~1 RESOURCES
(FOUO 7/81)
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. JPRS I,/10078
27 October 1381
USSR REPORT
HUMAN RESOURCES
_ (FOUO 7/81)
CANTENTS
DEMOGRAPIiY
Deqnographic Policy Deemed Necessary for Long-Term Social Economic
Planning
(A. Ya. Kvasha; DEMOGRAF'ICHESKAYA POLITIKA V SSSR, 1981) 1
Book ~,iscusses Ma.npower Shortage, Alcoholis~a
(RAZVITIYE NARODONASII,ENIYA: EKONOMICHESKIY ASI'IIC~, 1380) 8
a7
- a - [III - USSR - 38c FOUO]
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DEMOGRAPIiY
_ DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY DEEMED NECESSARY F'OR LONG-Z'ERM SOCIAL, ECONOMIC P~ANNING
Moscow DEMUGRAFICHESKAYA PULITIKA V SSSR in Rnssian 1981 (signed to press 9 Feb
81) pp 3-9
[Title, annotation, iiitroduction, and table of contents from the book "Demographic
Po~icy in the USSR" by A. Ya. Kvasha, Izdatel~'rtvo "Finansy i statistika", ~i000
copies, 198 pages]
[Text] In ex3mining the current trends of population development in the USSR, the
~ author gives particular attention to the pr4blems of working out an effective demo-
graphic policy in the country, p~pulation reproduction, and the relationship of
dzm~graphic policy to the socio-economic policy of the party, which is aimed at
the u~ost impronement of the workers' well-be3.ng and the comprehensive development
� of the individ~ual. This work analyzes the basic methodological approaches to de-
_ termining the voltune of expenditures for implementing a demographic policy through-
out the country, on th~ whole, and in its individual regions.
The book is intended for demograhpers, economists, sociolo~ists, and other spe~ial-
ists interested in the population probleme~ of the USSR.
Introduction
In recent years the working out of an effective demographic policy in the USSR has
become the most important direction of research in population problems. "Envf,ron-
_ mental and population problems, which have recently become acute," it was noted
at the 25th Congress of the CPSU, "must be given considerati~n by Soviet scholars.
Improving the socialist utilization of nature and work.ing out an effective demogra-
phic policy represent an important task for the whole system of naturai and social
sciences"1.
The necessity of an ~ctive influer,ce on dem~ograhpic phenomena on the part of socie-
ty has been noted repeated~y in the dec~sions of tb,e party and the government. In
1931 the Plenucn of the Central Commitee of the VI~ [Al1-Union Communist Party (of
Bolsheviks)] adopted a decision to regulate migration to Moscow. Annual allowances
~ t~ families during the first 5 years of a child's life were introduced on 27 Ju1y
1936 by a resolution of tne USSR SNK [Council of People's Commissars, 1917-1946].
These were some of the first systematically paid out allowances in the world f or
1
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large faII~ilies. A new system of allowances for large familie~ was introduced in
1944 and was revised in 1947.
The role of demographic prognoses in long-Cerm socio-economic plavn.3ng was noted
at the 24th Ccngress of the CPSU. In the decisions of the congress prnvisions were
made for the introduction of a system of allowances for economically nnderprivileged
families (basically families with mariy children) and a munber of priWileges for
people working in the northern and eastern regions of tiie country, which had a pos-
itive effect on popu~ation migration to those regions of the eountr}?. Finally,
in the new Constitution of the USSR (Articles 35 and 53) spe~ial mention is made
of the important role of motherho~~ and the stability of the family in the value
system of our society, and active state assistance to the family is guaranteed.
The 25th CPSU Congress adopted a decision to grant women partially paid 1-year
maternity leaves, which will be introduced throughaut the rayons of the country
beginning in 1981, .
Measures for reducing the 4ickness and mortality rate of the population represented
an important direction in the systematic social effect on dr~ographic phenomena.
In this respect measures witti a purposeful effect were literally carried out from
the very first days ~f 5oviet~power. The resolution of the CPSU Central Committee
and the USSR Council of Ministers on the further developnent of health c~re, adopt-
ed in September 1977, is also to a great degree a part of the systematic effect
of a developed socialist society on population development.
However, the 25th CPSU Congress approa~hed the resolution of population problems
aC a qualitatively di�ferent level: it posed the question of working out an effec-
- tive demographic policy, on the whole, that is, a system c" measures expressly aim-
ed at achieving a definite result with a high degree of effectiveness with respect
to administrative actions. Let us also note th~t here we are concerned with meas-
ures of a systematic social effect on the whole systeffi of demographic processes
in their interdependence and not ~ust on this or that form of population mot~ement.
Such a qualitatively new approach to administrative problems, that is, a planned
effect for the purpose of changing demographic phenomena in a direction nec~ssary
to society, reflects the ob3ective requirement~ of our society and is based on real-
istic opportunities.
At the present level of economic development in our country long-term socio-economic
planning is acquiring ever greater significance; particularly long-ter~n when devel-
opment trends of a long duration with respect ta thts or that component of such
a complex social syst ~n as society an~ the revision of undesirable tendencies'appea-
ring in the course of social development play such a special role.
. But any administration of the complex system, especially such a multifunctional
system as a mature socialist society, can only be effective when specific measures
are *~rovided for in order to manage each element of the syetem along with a defi-
nite and unified social goal. Not one component of such a system, demographic pro-
cesses in this instance, should be left outside of the sphere of a purposeful ef-
fect, not even outsxde of a dependence on the development trends of this or that
process. The peculiarities of a demographic situation can only increase the urgen-
cy of carrying out an effective c~2mographic policy.
2
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The implementation of the basic economic law of a socialist society and improving
the efficien~y of the way in w~ich our wl'z~le economy functions are the main criter-
ia for the effective operation of our wh~~le soci~l policy, including its ~omponent
a~demographic policy. Demographic poliCy quest3.ons should also be resolved in
conformity with these basic criteria while taking ~nto account the social and eco-
nomic a.spects of development in society. The correlation between the elements of
the whole system and the measures for ad~ninistering them is a complex, sometimes
debatable, but theoretically and practically very importar.t problem2. Thus the
- necessity of working out an effective de~nographic policy is dictated by the long-
term interests of the development of our society.
- But also important is another aspect of ~his problem, which is that the scienti�ic-
theoretical prerequisites for resolving this problem 1-.ave now been formed. It is
- known that the scientific elaboration of the population problem, wh3.ch was suspend-
ed in our country on the eve of World Wax II, was noticeably activated after the
publication of the article "Un Two Forgotten Areas of Sociological Research"3 in
the journal KC~4ri[INIST. In the middle of the 1960's organizational form was given
to two demographic scientific centers in Mc~scow (Department of Demography in the
USSR NII TsSU [Scientific Research Institute of the Central Statistical Administra-
tion] and Center for the Study of Population Problems in the Economic Department
of MGU [Moscow State University imer:i M. V. Lomonosov]) and one in Kiev (Department
of Demography in the Institute of Economics of the UkSSR AN [Academy of Sciences]).
. Somewhat later the Population Problems Laboratory was opened up in the University
of Tashkent. Conferences and symposiums on various aspects of population studies
became a reality, the valume of demographic literature increased4.
Research on population problems in the first year.s after the war was conducted,
on the who?e, by political economists. Bourgeois theories on population develop-
ment were sub~ected to severe criticism, and attempts were also made to formulate
a socialist law of human population. Beginning in the middle of the 1960's theo-
retical and applied researca on demographic problems characteristic of the USSR,
on the whole, and the Union republics underwent very active develoument. After
the creation of an editorial department of demographic literature in the izdatel'-
stvo [publishing house] "Statistika" the volume of demographic publications and
_ their subjects were ext~anded significantly.
The research conducted in the last few decades has formed a scientific-theoretical
base for working out a system of ineasures for the administration of population de-
velopment. It is comprised of an overall approach to the study of the processes
of development, which is based on a conception of the system of knowledge concern-
ing population. The way for such an approach was paved by the fundamental works
of Soviet demographers on an analysis of long-term population develapment trends
in the USSR and also by works in the area of improving the methodology and the system
of demographic analysis and prognosis.
The informational base of demographic research has also been expanded considerably
in recent years, the i959, 1970, and 1979 population censuses provided much valu-
able material not only for an analysis of trends in demographic processes, but also
f or revealing their motivational factors. In this respect the 1979 census acquires
considerable signif icance. In fact, this census for the first time (since 1926)
- provides us with information on the level of the birth rate according to cohorts5.
3
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In the ~.ast few decades our country has conducted a large number of various de~no-
graphic studies, which have made it possible to obtain detailed and sometimes uni-
que information.
The study of the motivational factors behind the decision of a cot~ple to remain
- childless or to have children represents an important direction in demographic re-
search, which is of considerable importance in working out the problems of ~dmini-
stering demographic processes. Another important factor is an analysis of the me-
, chanism of the interrelationship between economic and demographic processes at var-
ious stages af development in the country and of the effect of changes in this or
that element of the standard of living on the intensiveness of demographic proces-
ses, An identification of trends in the dynamics of these relationships ~s an im-
portant condition for working out the whole structure of effective economic meas-
ures in a demographic poliey. This type of demagraphic research underwent consi-
derable (however, still insufficient) development in the lOth Five Year Plan in
the work of many Soviet scholars.
Finally, a detailed familiarity with theoretical research and the large amount of
practical experience accumulated in this area in the socialist countries of Europe
was an important prerequisite for the success of research in the area of demogra-
phic policy in our country. A study of this experience made it possible to ident-
ify ma^.y common traits in the course of demographic development and to generalize
measures f or an effective demographic policy in a socialist society.
A number of works on problems of managing demvgraphic development and on demogra-
phic policy have been published in recent yesrs6. Among them two collective mono-
graphs especially devoted to these probleme should be singled out~. A number of
- works by B. Ts. Urlanis are devoted to the problems of demographic policy, ques-
tions of the theory of the economics and politics of human population are resear-
ched in the works by D. I. Valentey. ~
The problems of managing population development and demographic policy have been
discussed at a number of seminars and conferences. A~ong them in recent years it
is possible to single out the All-Union School-Seminar on Questions of Managing
Demographic Processes, held in May 1979, and the Conference of the ~ouncil on So-
cio-Economic Problems of Population Development of the USSR AN, held in June 1979.
And still we cannot say that the same high level has been achieved in the area of
the study of demographic policy prob~ems as, for example, in the development of
methods of demographic analysis. A n~ber of these questions remain poorly stud-
_ ied, for example: the determination of tt~e effectiveness of a demographic policyy
- the correlation of its "vertical" and "horizontal" levels, the opportuni~ies of
society in the utilization of these or other measures under current conditions,
and many other aspects.
At the same time the urgency of resolving these problems increases from year to
year. Confirmation of this can be found in the moat recent party documents. Thus
not only is the importance of expanding detnographic research noted in the draft
- of "The basic directions of economic and social development in the USSR for the
� years 1980 --1985 and for the period until 1990", but concrete tasks are also es-
tablished, the accomplishment of which would require the implementation of an
_
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effective demograpt~ic policy: the strengthening of the fami.ly, the c~eation of
more favorable conditions for combining female participation in the labor force
with the functions of motherhood, increased life expeCtency, and many others. Thus
- research on the problems of a demographic policy in our countsry is a vital require-
ment of theory and practice.
To a great degree present work amounts to a development of the theses contained
- in the booic "Problemy economiko-demograficheskogo razvitiya SSSR"8 [~roblems of
Economic Deffiographi~c Development in the USSR]. Its structure is determined by a
genera]. approach to the management of socio-economic processes, which includes such
elements as determining the state of the sub~ect being managed at the time manage-
ment actions begin; determining the goal of such actions, that is, that state of
the system being managed which the actual state should approach; a selection of
management methods and, finally a determination of a system f or controlling chan-
ges in the system being managed~.
In accordance with our ob~ective the management process is made up of the follow-
ing elements: a study of tt~e general trends of population development and their
specific traits under the conditions of the country as a whole as well as its in-
- dividual regions; a determination of the present state of demographic development
as an initial base of management; a determination of the goal of a demographic pol-
icy those parameters of population reproduction which from the positions of the
criteria selected are the most preferable with respect to long-term prapects; an
elaboration of a comprehensive system of ineasures for a demographic policy; finally,
an elaboration of a system for controlling changes in the state of the system being
_ managed. To a great degree the latter is limited to an iu~rovement of the methods
of demographic analysis and, therefore, will not be examined in this work.
Such an overall nature of research predetermined its fragmentary nature and, most
likely, the far from always intensive elaboration of a number ~f demographic pol~Lcy
problems. Questions of demographic policy with respect to migration, in particvlar,
are in need of special examination because of their specificity. It is hoped that
this work will make at least a minimal contribution to working out such a complex
and urgent problem as an effective demographic policy in the USSR.
The recommendations of Professor D. I. Valentey and Professor L. L. Rybakovskiy,
and also the assistance of Ye. S. Bol'shakova were extremely valuable in the pre-
! paration of this book. The author is profoundly grateful to all of them.
FOOTNOTES
1. "Materialy XXV S"yezda KPSS" [Materiala on the 25th CPSU Congress], Moscow,
1976, p 73.
2. We regard demographic policy as a part of population policy, which, in turn,
is a part of the socio-economic policy of soc:iety as a whole (see.: "Sistema
znaniy o narodonaselenii" [System of Knowledge on Human Population]/edited by
D. I. Valentey, Moscow, 1976, chapter IX~. In this work we will only examine
problems related to demographic policy.
5
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3. 1tUI~4IUNIST, 1964, No 17.
4. Our task i.ncludes a study of the history of deuo~graphic research in our coun-
try during the postwar period, this is tne subject of a special work, ~he wri-
ting of which is extremely urgent.
5. At the time this book was released for printing there were still no detailed
publications on the results of the 1979 census, but it is possible to ass~e
that the question asked by census takers concerning the number of children in
a family in combination with a detailed description of the ~ondition of the
family will provided a wealth of material for subseQuent research.
6. According to the data of the reference book "Pibliog,rafiya po problemam naro-
donaseleniya" [Bibliography on Problems of Human Popuiation] for the years
1972--1975, (Moscow, 1977) 24 works on the problems of human population policy
were published during this period in the USSR. One of these publications
the collection "Demograf icheskaya politika" [DemograplYic Policy] contains �
22 articles by various authors, that is, the total ntm?be;t of publications
amounts to 46 titles.
7. See.: "Demograficheskaya politiika"/edited by U~ S. Stesh~nko and V. P. Pisku-
nov, Moscow, 1974; "Upravl.eniye razvitiyem narodonaseleniya SSSR" [Administra-
tion of Human Population Development in the USSR]/edited by A. Ya. Kvasha, Mos-
cow, 1977.
8. See.: A. Ya. Kvasha, "Problemy ekonomiko-demograficheskogo razvitiya SSSR",
[Prol~lems of the Economic-Demographic Development of the USSR], Moscow, 1974.
9. See.: '~latematika i kibernetika v ekonomike" [Mathematics and Cybernetics in
economics], Dictionary-Handbook, Moscow, I975, pp 592--597.
Table of contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Chapter 1. General Trends of Demograpl~ic Processes . . . . . . . . . . 10
Basic state of population develo~ment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Present state of population reproduction in the Soviet Union. 46
Long-term prospects for the development of demographic processes. . 78
Chapter 2. On Che Goals of Demographfc Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Chapter 3. Problems of Demographic Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . : . 135
General principles of implementing a demographic policy in the USSR 135
On the ef.fectiveness of a demographir policy and the consistency of
its implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
On an overall, long-term program of population development in the
USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
6
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Aleksandr Yakovlevich Rvasha
Demograficheskaya Politika v SSSR
Reviewer L. L. Ryhakovskiy
Managing Editor V. P. Tomin
Editor G. I. Chertova
Junior Editor Ye. M. Rudyy
Technical Editor I. V. Zavgorodnyaya
Proof-Readers Ya. B. Ostrovskiy, N. P. Spez~anskaya
Artistic Editor E. A. Smirnov
Cover bq V. S. Sergeyeva
IB No 1031
Released for type-setting 25 July 1980. Signed to press 9 February 1981~. A-06235.
Format 84X108 nne-thirty second. Paper press No 1. Set "Literaturnaya". Eleva-
ted print. P. 1. 6.25. Usl. p. 1. 10.5. Partial edition, 1. 11.24. Edition of
6000 ~copies. Order of 5213. Price 1 ruble 20 kopecks.
Izdatel'stvo "Finansy i statistika", Moscow, Chernyshevskiy Street, 7.
_ Ublast Rrinting House ~f the Administration of Publishin~ Houses,
Poly~aphy, and the Book Trade of the Ivanovskiy Oblispolkom,
City of Ivanovo-8, Tipografskaya Street, 6.
COPYRIGHT: "Finansy i statistika", 1981
10576 .
CSO: 1828/7
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DEMOGRAPHY
BOOK DISCUSSES MANPOWER SHORTAGE, ALCAHOLISM
Moscow RAZVITIYE NARODONASELENIYA: EKONOMICHESKIX ASPEKT in Russian 1980
(signed to press 1 Feb 80) pp 169-220, 311-333
[Sections of Chapters 2 and 3 from book "Population Growth: The Economic As-
pect" by M. Ya. Sonin, Economics Institute of the U3SR Academy of Sciences,
Izdatel'st�~o "Statisika", 5,G00 copies, 351 ~agesJ
[ExcerptsJ Chapter 2. Problems of Reproduction of Labor Resources
Problems of Distribution and Use of Labor Resou~ces*
In the report address of the CPSU Central Con~.ttee to the 25th party congress
and his speech at the October (1976) Plenum of the CPSU Central Committee, Com-
rade L. I. Brezhnev, general secretary of the CPSU Central Committee, especially
emphasized the need to pay more atte~ntian to optimum us~ of labor resources.
This was prompted by exacerbat~on of the problem of labor resources, by the
shortage of trained workers. The shortage of workers in the most cammon occupa-
tions is being felt ~with particular acuteness in the country's ma3or industrial
centers. The present strain on the balance of labor resources is explained by
the fact that for a long time a substantial share of the growth of the social
product was achieved by increasing the work force and by augmenting the volume
of capital construction. In a number of cases an excessively high need for per-
sonnel was created because of low efficiency in their uae (large losses of work
time, interruptions of work activity because of personnel turnover, and so on),
as well as because of the unsatisfactory state of affairs in capital construc-
tion (excessively high volume of construction and number of pro~ects under con-
struction, unwise distribution of capital investments between new consCruction
and reconstruction of existing enterprise~).
In accordance with the decisions of the 24th and 25th CPSU congresses, emphasis
has now been placed on qualitative and intensive factors of economic growth, on
raising the efficiency of social production. More optimum distribution and use
* Printed in abridged form from the publication: SOTSIALISTICHESKIY TRUD,
No 3, 1977; additional material taken from the article "Effective Use of Labor
- Resources" (EKONOMIK~ I ORGANIZATSIYA PRQMYSHLENNOGO PROIZVODSTVA, No 4, 1977,
Novosibirsk) was used in this section.
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_ af the country's labor resources, which ultimately take the form of a rise of
labor productivity, are assuming extremely great importance among those factors.
Speeding up the rates of scientific-technical progress, develop~.ng progressive
lines of scientific research and reduci:g the time required to apply their re-
sults to production are helping to reduce heavy physical labor step by Etep and
- to replace unskilled manual labor by machine labor. Intensification of produc-
tion has put on the agenda the improvement of the system of planning and exten-
� sive use of the economic mechanism for stimulation of production, and enhance-
ment of the motivation of enterprises and production associations to achieve a
growth in output without increasing the size of the work force. This compli-
cated task can be performed on the basis of the socia~list competition, which has
been staged on a broad scale in response to the appeal of th~ CPSU Central Com-
mittee, for ahead-of-schedule fulfillment and overfulfillment of state assign-
ments by every producer and collective at minimum material costs and labor ex-
penditures, for bringing stragglers up to the level of frontrankers, for brc~ac~
introduction of better work methods, for expansion of the movement to master re-
lated occupations, and for application of scientific management at every wark
station.
On the Shortage of Manpower, Its Causes and Consequences
By contrast with the entire previous period, when the annual natural increase of
the able-bodied population (the positive difference between the nuinber of young
peogle coming of working age and the number of people retiring) was the highest
over the entire post~3r geriod, in the second half of this 5-year period we en-
ter a zone when the natural growth of labor resources will drop sharply. The
number of young people entering the able-bodied population every year will be
between one-third and one-half of what it is at the present time; the number of
people retiring will be far greater. In coming years the age-specific composi-
tion of the able-bodied population will change essentially, and in this two ten-
dencies are clearly evident--reduction of the share of young people (the 16-24
age group) and an increase in the relative shar~ of people in the preretirement
age groups.
In connection with these processes one must have a clear idea of the state of
the manpower supply and of the causes and consequences of a manpower shortage
even now under present conditions. At the present time the ma~power shortage is
having a very substantial impact on rates of economic development.
The impact of the manpower shortage on production efficiency is indicated, for
example, by the fact that more than one-fifth of cases of downtime lasting at
least one shift in the metal manufactur.ing industry occurred because of under-
staffing. This has been especially manifested in the major cities--Moscow, Len-
ingrad, Kiev, etc. Often a low level of utilization of equipment and a slowing
down of the growth rates of production are observed at enterprises.
The manpower shorta~e is one of the reasons of labor turnover, whose results in-
clude losses of work time during transition from one 3ob to another, higher ma-
' terial costs of enterprises and of society as a whole for the training and re-
training of personnel changing ~obs frequently, and lower labor productivity (a
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- drop of 10-20 percent during the 2 or 3 months after the move is made to another
~ob) as compared to permanent personnel. Labor turnover in industry and con-
struction is at present dropping very slowly. At industrial enterprises it
still remains at a substantial level, and it is part3cularly high in constxuc-
tion.
fihe manpower shartage is also having an adverae effect on the state of work
discipline, which ia related to the organization of work and consequently to its
productivity as well. It is a necessary condition af scientific management that
- all job slots be filled with qualified personnel. The turnover of personnel and
_ breaches of discipline are related to use of work time abovs all.
Losses of work time because of breaches of work diucipline are underestimated in
official reports of individual enterprises. Work time losses of less than one
shift, which as a rule exceed by 3-4-fold full-day loeses, are especially impor-
tant. Part-shift downtime as recorded on "downtime slips" does not reflect the
actual situation. The same can be said of sample time studies of the workday
which enterprises conduct annually wi th their own resources. They are first of
all organized in the last 10 days of October, i.e., in the particularly strenu-
ous period just b~fore the holidays, and they furnish fragmentary figures which
are too low on the average level of part-shift downtime. Saznple surveys con-
ducted by scientific research organ3.zations provide a more accurate idea of the
actual losses of work time. According to the data of su~h surveys, at a number
of industrial enterprises these losses amount to as much as 15-20 percent of al1
work time, while in construction they are still higher. In branches of the ser-
vice sphere no specific records are kept on work time. One can ~udge from the
table how sizable the difference~ are between the losses fo~mally recorded and
actual work time losses.
Part-Shift Losses of Work Time Relative to Time Worked, in percentage
According to Data Accoxding to Data
_ of Time Studies of Annual Sta-
Enterprises (Kuybyshevskaya Oblast) of Workday tistical Reuorts
Sergiyevsknef t' oil field adminis~-
_ tration 5.9 None
Ninth gas refining plant 6.0 0.11
Syzran'sel'mash 5.4
0.02
The reasons far full-day and part-shif t losses of work time vary widely. They
include equipment breakdown and the lack of parts, workpieces, attachments, ma-
terials-handling equipmen~, and sh ortcomings in planning, in material and te~h-
nical supply, and so on. Of course, all these factors do not depend directly on
the state of work discipline in the given production section. But if we follow
the entire "chain" of these causes related to o�rganizational and technical mal-
_ ad~ustments in the given production, then we will soon become convinced that in
the final analysis they also result to a considerable extent from a breach of
work di~cipline.
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The extremely rapid growth of those employed, far in excess of the natural
growth of labor resources, has caused serious difficulties. We should bear in
mind in this connection that the national economy has been attaining manpower
not only from the natural growth (young people reaching working age), but also
from persons who have retired as well as from the able-bodied population previ-
ously employed in the home. By 1970 the work force in social production (in
kolkhozes and full-time studies) had reached more than 90 percent of all persons
of working age, as against 78 percent in 1960 and 87 percent in 1965. In cer-
tain ma3or cities and regions of the country labor force participation ha~ risen
to 95 percent.
What are the main reasons for the shortage of manpower, and what are the ways of
eliminating it?
The principal cause, in our view, is the lack of equipment for retoaling produc-
tion in certain sectors. For a long time a sizab~e portion of resources were
committed to buildiilg new enterprises, and for that reason it was not always
possible to reequip existi~g enterprises and carry out mechanization more exten-
~ sively, and that brought about a shortage of manpower. The principal direction,
then, as noted by the decisions of the 25th CPSU Congress, is to sharply reduce
the relative share of new construction and to redistribute resources to the ad-
vantage of technical modernization of existing enterprises, as well as to de=
_ velop first of all thoae branches of machinebuilding which build machines and
equipment that replace heavy u?anual labor.
Consequently, a substantial rise in the efficiency of utilization of labor re-
sources presupposes implementation of a set of technical, organizational and so-
cioeconomic measures. It is decisively important here to step up the growth
rate of labor productivity and thereby to make manpower available from exist3.ng
~ production, and above all to reduce the number of workers employed at manual and
heavy physical labor.
' The potential here for making labor resources available is enormous, since the
share of manual labor is dropping slowly in all sectors of the economy. In 1965
the share of workers performing operati~ns by hand was 49.7 percent in industry
and 7'l.3 percent in constructioii, and in 1Q72 these figures were 55.7 [sic] and
65.8 percen t, respectively. Because of slowness in reducing the use of manual
labor, though its relative share did decrease, at the same time the absolute
' amount af manual labor increased over that period. More than ha~f of workers in
construction and installation work are performing manual operations: 55 per.cent
~n constr~�ction organizations of USSR Minpromstroy [Ministry of Industrial Con-
struction], 54 percent of USSR Minstroy [Ministry of Construction], and 66 per-
cent of USSR Minsel'khozstroy [Ministry of Rural Construction]. In
industry manual labor is concentrated mainly in machinebuiiding and metal manu-
facturing, in light industry and the food manufacturing industry, in coal min-
ing, in timbering, which account for about 80 percent of all the manual labor in
the industrial sector. Those doing heavy physical labor represent 36.5 percent
of all those doing manual labor.
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_ Because of ineufficient specialization and an inadequate supply of equ3.pment,
the number of workers doing manual labor is extremely high (74 percent) in aux-
iliary production operations: in transp~ort, freight-handling and warehouse op-
erations, in repair of pquipment, in tooli.ng management, etc. For example, the
number of workers employed in loading, unloading, lifting and moving operations
and in the transport of freight reached 7 million persons in aYl sectors of the
economy (except kolkhozes) in 1975, which was 900,000 persons more than in 1965.
In industry the share of this group of workers was 14 percent in 1975, including
25 percent at enterprises (mines) of Minugleprom [Ministry of Coal Industry], 15
- in Mintyazhmash [Ministry of Heavy and Transport Machinebuilding], 12 in Minsel'-
khozmash [Ministry of Tractor and Agricultural Machinebuilding], 14 in Minstroy-
dormash [Ministry of Cons*..ruction, Road and Municipal Machinebuilding], 27 in
Minstroymaterialov [Ministry of Construction Materials Industry], and 17 percent
in Minpishcheprom [Ministry of Food Industry]. The relative share of auxiliary
personnel in the total work force of the industrial sector was 46 percent in
1965, while in 1975 it had risen to 49 percent.
Measures aimed at scientific management assume tremendous s~~ioeconomic impor-
tance in the area of solving the problem of labor resources. But in drafting
proposed plans for adoption of ttie most important NOT [scientific management]
_ measures for the lOth Five-Year Plan and for 1977 ministries and departments of
the USSR and of the union republics have in a number of ca~ses adopted figures
which are too low for the rise of labor productivity rasulting from application
of NOT measures if a comparison is made to the actual reaults far the 1971-1975
_ period. For instance, at enterprises of Minsel'khozmash the rise of labor pro-
ductivity to result from application of NOT measures in the 1976-1980 period was
set at 3.5 percent, as against 4.8 percent planned in the Ninth Five-Year Plan;
at enterprises of Mintsvetmet [Ministry of Nonferrous Metallurgy] the drop was
from 7.2 to 4.3 percent, in Minbu~mprom [Ministry of Timber, Pulp and Paper, and
_ Wood Processing Industry] from 6.2 to 4.8, in Minkhimmash [Ministry of Chemical
and Petroleum Machineb uildingJ from 9.1 to 8.1, in Minstroydormash from 7.4 to
6.5, and in Minpishcheprom from 7 to 6 percent.
Yet it is scientific management, which also includea the designing of work sta-
tions in the construction and reconstruction of enterprises and when new ma-
chines and equipment are beirg ^reated, as we know, that is an important pre-
- requisite of the rise of labor productivity, of shortening the time for attain-
ing rated capacity, and of improving other ec~nomic indicators. If the main
lines of scientific management a~-e competently dealt with in engineering plans,
far higher labor productivity will be ensured, and the designed labor intensive-
ness of the product will be achieved rnore rapidly. For example, in working out
the engineering plans for the varnishea shop in connection with reconstruction
_ of the Cherkessk Chemical Plant, thE NOT Center of Minkhimprom [Ministry of
Chemical IndustryJ reduced the number of personnel needed by 46 ~,ercent compared
with progressive shops of the same kind in operation, by improving the organiza-
tion of work and the positioning of personnel.
Accordi.ng to figures of SKB-3 [Special Design Office] of Minavtoprom [Ministry
of Automotive Industry], pro~ect plans worked out for organization of labor and
_ management of production guarantee that labor productivity, compared to existing
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shops, will be 10-25 percent higher in the basic shops of volume productiQn,
40-50 percent in shops with series production, and twofold h3gher in shops with
single-unit production and auxiliary shops.
But many pro~ect planning organ3.zations do not attribute due importance to sci-
entific management. A check has shown that 8 out of 13 institutes prepare groj-
ect plans in which there is no separate section devoted to the organization of
work (Giprostanok [State Institute for the Planning of Machine Tool, Too~. and
Abrasives Plants and Forging-and-Pressing Machinery Plants] of Minstankoprom
_ (Ministry of Machine Tool and Tool Building Industry], Rezinoproyekt [State In-
stitute for the Planning of Estab~ishments of the Rubber Industry] of Minnefte-
khimprom [Ministry of Petroleum Refining and Petrochemical Industry], Giproplast
[State Institute for the Planning of Establishments Producing Finished and Semi-
finished Plastic Products] of Minkhimprom, etc.).
On Improving the System for Releasing and Redistributing Manpower
Enhancement of the role of the intensive form of manpower utilization in connec-
tion with the progressive reorganizat3.on of the sectoral structure of our coun-
try's economy is making it ob~ectively possible and necessary to improve the
~ system for redistribution of personnel to fill ~ob slots with people made avail-
able as the result of technical progress, reconstruction, organizational-and-
- technical restructuring and other measures directly or indirectly related to in-
troduction of scientific management.
Up until now the job placement of those made available by technical progress has
_ mainly been effected through intraplant redistribution. The predominant form of
retraining workers has been retraining them F~~imarily for r~lated occupatio~2.s
within the same field within the enterprise, mainly in the foxm of short-term
individual ann team training in second or new occupations, as well a~ through
training in evening (shift) vocational and technical schools. T~is syetem of
_ retraining took shape at a time when the amount of manpower being made availablP
within the enterprise was still extremely negligible.
At the present time the economic and organizational-legal prerequisites have
come about for interplant redisiribution of workers made available. It seems to
us that their disengagement should be carried out in a glanned way and should be
organized.
In that context the experience of l~;inchermet [Ministry of Ferrous Metallurgy] in
giving enterprises targets for the absolute number of workers released by per-
formance of organizational and technical measures, auxiliary workers and admin-
istrative and managerial personnel above all, deserves to be studied and dis-
seminated. In the 1971-1975 period the total number of production pereonnel
_ proper related to the rise of labor productivity of enterprises of that ministry
was more than 350,000 persons, including 207,000 actually disengaged and trans-
ferred to other sections of production, 180,000 of them in turn used to staff
new pro~ects. The entirp growth of the volume of production in the Ninth Five-
Year Plan for the USSR Minchermet was achieved by virtue of the rise of labor
productivity. In the lOth Five-Year Plan 159,500 persona belonging to produc-
tion personnel proper are to be released according to the target assigned.
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Timely preparations need to be made for the px~cese of organized and lar~e-scale
~edistribution af manpower; otherwise such painful thinge as reduced wages, pe-
_ riods without work, unreasonable geographic moves, and so on, are inevitable.
It is advisable in this connection to set up a system of manpower reserves and
planned redistribution of manpower. As L. I. Brezhnev has pointed out, "a situ-
ation needs to be acriieved in which the equipment does not stand idle waiting
for personnel...."*
The qualitative composition of the workers to be made available and who can be
redistributed in coming years 3s characterized by a high relative share of aux-
iliary workers performing unskilled labor, i.e., those groups whose subsequent
use in social groduction r~quires retraining and improvement of qualifications.
In the more remote future the workers made available will show a higher absolute
number and share of basic workers with secondary qualifications (lathe opera-
tors, milling machine operators, heat treaters, drill press operators), as well
as engineering and technical personnel and employees (because of reorganization
of the structure of administration involving extensive use of ASU [computerized
management systems]). Accountants, bookkeepers, and so on will be released and
transferred to other work.
We should mention that in the industrial sector alone there are more than 2 mil-
lion stevedores, carriers and materials handlers and helpers who do their work
mainly by hand. There are 2.5 million persons employed in labor-intensive oper-
ations in the repair of equipment and more than 1 million persons in technical
inspection. The question is this: How is their redistribution to be organized?
Redistribution of manpower may be internal and external. The latter might in-
clude, for example, use of personnel mad~ available at industrial enterprises,
in construction organizations, and so on, because of introduction of NOT. In
this case the workers are transferred from certain production sections (shops
and the like) to others within the enterprise. We ~reu13 ~~a~a~f~ ~w~^e ",~;ial
forms of redistribution that portion of labor resources which is made available
as a result of technical progress, involving greater mobility than the reassign-
ment from one job to another within thP enterprise, and involving redistribution
beyond the confines of a given enterprise--where the need for trained personnel
arises. Higher "vertical" and "horizontal" mobility (i.e., possibility of mov-
. ing from one sector to another and one place to another) is an important dis-
tinctive feature of external redistribution of manpower.
When manpower becomes a factor that sets a limit on the growth rates of produc-
tion, external release of workers in certain labor-intensive sections of produc-
tion and their redistribution from one enterprise or sector to another in the
national economy take on greater socioeconomic importance. This pattern must
satis~y the bulk of the manpower requirement of new industrial enterprises. The
~ reason for this is that the total work force in most branches of the industrial
sector will not increase. At the preaent time external redistribution is mostly
taking place haphazardly, through personnel turnover.
- * L. I. Brezhnev, "Leninskim kursom" [On Lenin's Course], Vol 2, Moscow, 1970,
p 502.
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The following ca~ be designated as the principal directions for the pl,anned re-
lease and external distribution of man~,ower: from a~riculture as labor produc-
tivity rises to nonfarm branches of material production; from extractive
branches to manufacturing branches within industry; from ti:e production to the
_ nonproduction sphere; from the densely populated regions of the European part of
the USSR ~o the sparsely settled regions of Siberia and the Far East. Improved
planning of the redistribution of manpower has great national economic impor-
tance in the present stage.
Personnel for New Enterprises
On the whole it would be ditficult to say that the situation with attainment of
rated capacity at new industrial enterprises is satisfactory. The average time
required is all of 4 years. Sample surveys conducted by TsSU SSSR [USSR Statis-
tical Administration] in 1974 showed that 1,294 out of 2,211 enterprises (58.5
percent; as compared to 67.2 percent in 1964) had not attained rated capacity
~aithin the period allowed. Still longer periods are required to attain the
principal economic indicators of the design--labor productivity, production cost
and profitability.
Temporary quotas and the failure to revise the quota system probably are one of
the reasons for this. The experience of advanced enterprises (the Minsk, Gor'-
kiy and Volga motar vehicle plants, the Minsk Refrigerator Plant, the Tiraspol'
f.otton Combine) shows that when products are being put into production or when
new technology is being assimilated the adoption of technically sound design
quotas, combined with szmultaneous establishment of temporary supplements to
wage rates which decrease as the design quotas are achieved and are altogether
_ discontinued when rated labor intensiveness is attained, helps to reduce the
time required to reach rated output and to attain the economic indicators given
_ in the design. Thanks to this system of quota setting and remuneration and to
organizational and technieal measures rated labor intensiveness, �or example, of
the GAZ-24 "Volga" automobile was achieved in 13 months at t:~~e Gor'kiy Motor Ve-
hicle Plant, while that of the GAZ-21 "Pobeda" automobile was attained only 7
years af.ter it was put into production. The Rostsel'mash [agricultural ma-
chines] Plant attained rated labor intensiveness on the SK-5 "Niva" combine in
3 years, whereas more than 10 years were required for the SK-4.
But thi.s system of quota serting and organization of work has still not become
widespread. In the 1972-1974 period miiiistrxes were ordered to draft sectorwide
methods recommendations and criteria for setting work quotas for workers during
the initial period of a new production operation. But so far many ministries
and departments have still not completed preparation of these materials.

~ In spite of the large scale of new capacities being activated every year, a sys-
tem has not yet been created for timely targeted training of skilled workers for
new industrial enterprises. Every year several hundred new ma~or industrial en-
terprises and installations are put into operation, requiring approximately
500,000-600,000 new workers by the time they open up.
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Yet planning agencies and economic authorities as a rule do not have comprehen-
sive calendar plans for the training of personnel. As a result enterprises
which are new construction are experiencing a large shortage of operating per-
sonnel. For instance, the synthetic alcohol operation in the production associ~
ation Nitron (Saratov) was short 1,400 workers when it went into operation, and
the Krasnoyarsk Chemical Fiber Plant 1,000. Staffing in the productioti associa-
tion Azot in Navoi when it went into operation was 90 perce~t of engineering and
technical personnel and 78 percent of worker personnel; the respective figures
for the Sumgait Superphosphate Plant were 92 percent and 26 percent, respec-
tively.
A disproportion thus arises: A new industrial enterprise with progressive and
sophisticated technology is put into operation, elements of haphazardness and
- lack of organiza~ion (recruitment off the street) are predominant in shaping the
production staff of this facility, and this has the most adverse impact on the
_ pace at which rated capacity is attained at new projects. It is evident from an
analysis of balances of skilled workers of newly built industrial enterprises
_ that about 80 percent of *_he workers are recruited by the enterprises themselves.
Progress in present-day industrial technology and the extent of introduction of
full automation and mechanization of production at new enterprises necessitate
the training and formation of a reew type of worker who has a high level of gen-
eral education and a high level of specialized training. For instance, in ma-
chinebuilding the n2ed for workers in the high-skill categories is 15-25 percent
of the total work force, while in the chemical industry it goes up to 50 percent.
It is advisable for targeted training to be done through the facilities of edu-
cational institutions in the system of vocational and technical education, and .
especially, as emphasized in the decisions of the 25th CPSU Congress, in schools
furnishing secondary education along with skills.
There is a need for cousiderable expansion of the network of educational insti-
tutions for targeted training of workers for new industrial enterprises. Ways
that can be proposed: first, mandatory provision for construction of vocational
and technical schools at a faster pace than the principal pro~ect so that the
students would complete their training at the moment when the principal manufac-
turing equipment is installed, the outlays for construction of these educational
= institutions to be incorporated in plans and cost estimates; aecond, other �orms
- of worker training now in effect must be retained and developed as well.
Workers doing ~obs requiring iittle skill and also those of the unsophisticated
occupations and those in narrowly specialized occupations should be trained at
enterprises, more extensive use being made of existing vocational and technical
schools and two-shift training.
The measures enumerated above, of course, require corresponding outlays. But
- the benefit to the national economy from speedier attainment of rated output at
new industrial projects and from a shorter payoff period for capital investments
is immeasurably greater than those costs.
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_ The Need To Improve the Compilation and Fulfi.llment of Manpower Balances
The economic system of the country of advanc~d sociaiism possesses a number of
extremely imporxant advantages over capitalistic countries. Utilizing these ad-
vantages, the Soviet state and Communist Party have in all stages of building
socialism been solving the problems of ineeting the manpower needs of a growing
- economy without a reserve army of labor--the unemployed, that inevitable result
of ~apitalism.
The principal advantage of the socialist economic system is that the planned
charac.ter of the Soviet economy affords the possibility of accurately reckoning
the economy's need for manpower, of training new personnel in the necessary num-
ber, of distributing them at the end of training in accordance with the plan (as
the reserve of the state) among the various sectors and among the country's vari-
ous regions. But these advantages are still not being sufficiently utilized.
In our opinion, attention should be turned to practical solurions of the prob-
lems, and linkages should be set up between these two parts of the manpower bal-
ance--the need for manpower and its supply.
The right tc work has been achieved in the USSR, and there is no unemployment;
all manpower is fully utilized in the continuously expanding economy or in the
sectors of cultural construction and administration. Thus no surplus of person-
nel can be created in the national econom}r as a whole. Nor should there be a
shortage of manpower for the entire socialist economy taken as a whole, since
the production plan is realistic only when it is backed up with the supply of
personnel, and if labor resources are not sufficient for that, then the social-
ist state takes a number of steps to ensure that a portion of manpower is ma.de
available and redistributed. But those measures are not always taken in good
time or in full measure. It is this that explains the absence of linkage (bal-
ance) between the need for personnel and possibilities for meeting that need in
the required sectoral and regional mix in the very stage of compiling plans and
to a still greater degree--in carrying them out. This applies above all to the
balance of skilled peraonnel In capital construction.
As experience in achieving rated capacity when new enterprises are put into op-
eration has shown, the shortage of trained personnel is in first place among the
factors slowing down that attainment. In the current 5-year period, it seems to
~ us, the shortage of manpower could be entirely eliminated, above all by balanc-
- ing the activation of new capacities and the supply of their personnel by redis-
tributing personnel from existing old enterprises to new ones by increasing the
effjciency of utilization of workers at existing enterprises.
Thorough and careful compilation of retrospective and planned balances of labor
resources from the macrolevel to the microlevel, i.e., for the country as a
whole and by regions, will be needed to achieve balance between employment and
optimum utilization of per3onnel, on the one hand, and the scale of social pro-
duction on the other. Only by means of balances of this kind ie it possible to
determine the number of new 3obs for each of the sectors of the economy in the
planning period. Pragressive standard amounts of specific capital investments
per job are needed to link the planned balances of labor resources to the plan-
ning of capital investments; those standards must be differentiated so as to
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take into account the distribution of capital investments (between new construc-
tion and reconstruction of existing enterprises) by sectors and regions of the
country. Devising standard amounts of specific capital investments (or cost)
per job is a task which ~cientific research institutes in the planning field are
capable of performing. Relying on these standards it would be possible to de-
termine the volume of capital investments so that it is consistent with the
scale of employmen*_ within the region and the sector.
- In planning capital investmen t~ for development of the various sectoYS of the
economy it is important to take into account the trend and fluctuation of rela-
tionships between expenditures of past and live labor over several years. Tech-
nical progress brings about a progressive reduction in the share of inputs of
_ live labor (as compared to past labor) in all sectors of the economy. This sig-
nifies a faster growth of the mass of ineans of labor than for the size of the
work force. In this case we are talking about a potential relative reduction of
employment, since as time passes a decreasing amount of manpower will have to be
drawn into production, other conditions being equal, for one and the same amount
of fixed capital being put into operation.
It is natural that the different sectors of the economy are characterized by a
differing distribution of inputs of past, embodied and live labor and ~re di-
_ vided into capital-intensive (for example, the chemical industry, metallurgy and
_ the fuel and power industry) and labor-intensive (coal mining, mining, timber
and lumber, and so on). The.level of employment depends largely on which sec-
tor--capital-intensive or labor-intensive--capital investments are committed to.
Selection of the optimum variant has great importance in planning the lo~cation
of the productive forces among the country's economic regions. Location of la-
bor-intensive sectors makes economic sense in regions where there is a reserve
of labor resources, and, on the ccntrary, capital-intensive production operation
should above a11 be developed in regions with a manpower shortage, and at the
same time consideration shoulc~ be given to the qualitative composition of man-
power as a fun~^tion of the specific nature of the branches of the industrial
sector.
On Certain Aspects of Studying Patterns of Movement of the Population ann of
Demographic Policy*
- It is particularly important to study the patterns bf movement of the population,
first, because in the context of socialism the populazion figures not only as an
object, but also as a sub~ect of economic policy as a whole, since the goal of
our society's development is to meet the needs of man; second, becauae movement
of the population and especially of labor resources, which determine possibili-
ties for the further development of the economy, possesses inertia as compared
to changes in the country's level of economic development. But it is the study
of patterns of movement of the population that ia the weakest area in our demog-
raphy. This is especially manifested in forecasts of the size af the population,
not only for the various regions of the country, but even for the country as a
~
* Reprinted from the publication "Demograficheskaya politika" [Demographic Pol-
icy], Moscow, 1974.
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whole. We have to rely on forecasts of the size of the pogulation in the ini-
tial stage of forecasting and planning development of Che entire national econ-
omy. It is in that connection that we should examine the significance of deino-
graphic policy, to which more and more attention is being paid. And this is al-
together understandable. In recent years there have been substantial changes in
the flow of demographic processes. The birth rate in our country, especially in
the union republics with the largest population (RSFSR, LTkSSR, BSSR), has drop-
ped considerably. Very substantial changes are also taking place in the charac-
ter of other demographic processes. All of this is causing our society to pay
serious attention to these problems. At the same time in recent years there
have been no substantial changes at all in demographic policy itself (if indeed
we can speak of it as a shaped policy), This must also disturb us.
According to that division of the dissemination of scientific knowledge, includ-
ing its application, into time periods which has won greatest recognition, the
entire process from the initial scientific discovery to its wide dissemination
in society can be divided into four stages: 1--basic scientific research; 2--
incubation period; 3--practical development; 4--dissemination.
Experience over many years has shown that it is in the third and fourth stages
that numerous and the most complicated problems are encountered, problems which
are causing great difficulties in applying scientific advances.
It would be a mistake in our view to suppose that this situation pertains exclu-
sively to those fields of science which yield a ma~erialized reault in the form
of new machines, equipment, materials and manufacturing processes. We are re-
- ferring to the broader importance of scientific research, including the social
and economic sciences, demography in particular. Practical application of sci-
entific developments in this field is, of course, different in nature, but the
. task of increasing the effectiveness of scientific research througii practical
application of scientific advances has direcr relevance to demography as well.
The question, then, arises: What are the causes of insufficient practiCal uti-
lization of a large number of scientific recommendationa on the pr~blem~ of de-
mographic policy? l?ne of the principal reasons, we are convinced, lies in the
- state of the science of demogra~hy itself., and especially in the fact that it
still has been unable to discover the patterns of demographic develogment: in our
country.
Science as a whole, as a ma~or sector of human activity, and demography, as one
of. its important branches, which have taken shape in the process of the social
division of labor, display in their further development two principal forms of
that division: specialization of labor and cooperation, or, put differently,
differentiation and integration.
These two forms of the division of labor, like two poles of a magnet, are insep-
arable from one another. And therefore, the stronger the process of division of
- labor is manifested in the form of specialization, the stronger the process of
cooperation in labor must also be achieved. In science this is concretely ex-
pressed in the differentiation of branches and subbranches and, simultaneously,
in the development of integration, in the creation of interdisciplinary fields
_ ~
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of science. In the present century--the centurq of the scientific-technical
revolution--the deveiopment of science and its practical application have expe-
rienced an unusual acceleration. And that is why new branches of science are
budding out faster and faster from one another, striving at a fast pace to be-
come independent. But at the same time the laws of development of society and
of science itself require that connections be maintained between the old and new
fields of science and create the possibilities for that.
Development of demographic science became possible thanks to creation of a cer-
tain interrelated set of conditions which can mainly be reduced to three:
1) the gathering of facts (or what can be called creation of the nutrient me-
- dium); 2) development of related sciences; 3) the economic and social need for
developmeat of a given science (we might mention F. EngeZs' statement to tlie ef-
fect that economic need drfves the development of science faster than hundreds
of university professors). The nutrient medium of the science of demography has
down through the centuries been statistics, but the gathering of facts, i.e., of
demographic data, is sti].1 inadequate for discovering the laws of movement of
the population.
1
Facts are the "life breath" of science. But, ~ust in the case of development of
a living creature, it needs more than "air" alone for its davelopment. The
birth and development of a socialist demography required a certain level of de-
velopment of philosophy, of Marr.,ist political economy a~d of a number of other
"older" sciences, such as geography and history, for example. But up to a cer-
tain period, even though these conditions d~d exist, a number of sub~ective fac-
tors would not allow the economic and social needs of society, which had already
developed, to manifest themselves with sufficient persistence in the field of
demography. It is now becoming a most important task of present-day demography,
- whi.ch uses specific methods of studying population as a socioeconomic phenome-
non, to study not only the general patterns of the movement of the population,
but also their quantitative expression.
Although many works have been written on the patterns of movement of the popula-
tion and on the law of population, not only have the basic quantitative depen-
- dences of demographic phenomena not yet been formulated, but ther~ is not even a
reliable qualitative assessment of tY,e factors of movement of the population,
and therefore we are unable to fully take into account and utilize ~~he require-
ments of the laws of demographic deve~opment. And without that it is i*n~assible
- to define the theoretical and practical tasks of demographic policy.
The proposition advanced by V. I. Lenin to the effect that reproduction of the
population is determined by material, eCOnomic factors, is now conf irmed by the
results of a huge number of contemporary studies of the factors of the birth
rate, the marriage rate and other aspects of reproduction of the population.
But the principles of K. Marx quoted above on the question of the patterns of
movement of the population and those of V. I. Lenin elaborating ti:zm have in re-
cent years been in essence set up by many economists and demographers in opposi-
tion to various aspects of movement of the population: the first to the problem
of employment, and the second and third to reproduction of the population. Typ-
ical of such a point of view is that of T. N. Medvedeva, who believes that "the
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economic law of population and the laws of population growth, i.e., the laws of
reproduction, express altogether /different processes/ (emphasis mine--M. S.);
the first expresses the social form and level of utilization c~f the able-bodied
population in social production; the latter characterize a certain type of re-
productioa of the population, the rates of its growth in different socioeconomic
conditions, which depend directly not only on production relations, but also on
a broader range of factors w~ich are not only economic, but also political, cul-
tural, and psychologicaly as well as fact4rs pertaining to the family and every-
day life and even natural and biological factors. The first process is an eco-
nomic one, and the second demographic."* It seems to us that advocazing tha po-
sition presented means denying the principle that the character and 5.eve1 of em-
ployment of the population, i.e., the principal condition and the sou~ce of re-
sources for its (the population's) existence exert a decisive influence on the
pdtterns of the natural movement of the population.
While denying the legitimacy of setting the economic law of population in oppo-
sition to demogr,aphic patterns and while emphasizing that changes in employment
have a decisive i:nnr~rtance to reproduction of the population, we should not for-
get the existence, along with the basic economic law of population, of partial
laws as well that pertain to particular elements and aspects of reproduction of
the population (birth rate, death rate, marriage rate, and so on) nor that the
- decisive importance of economic factors to reproduction of the population by no
means signifies the exclusion of a whole number of psychological, cultural and
other factors, including family life. This is indicated, to be specific, by the
fact that sizable differenc~s in the pactern of reproduction of population are
observed between contiguous regions of the country where the level of economic
development is approximately the same. The numerous studies, including surveys
of women and families in the conrext of planned parenthood, are �umishing very
contradictory data on the role of the various factors (adequacy of ~iousing, ma-
terial prosperity, and so on). For example, there can be no doubt that there is
~ a profound interrelationship between demographic processes and solving the hous-
ing problem. It can moreover be said that the type of housing and housing sup-
_ ply are to a considerable degree determined by the laws of movement of popula-
tion and that in turn the housing supply influences to some degree the formation
of those laws. But the available data on the character and level of influence
. of housing conditions on the level of the birth rate are very contradictory. In
the opinion of some scientists, the number of births decreases as housing condi-
tions improve, while other researchers come to the opposite conclusion.
Conclusions are also very contradicto~}? concerning the role of material prosper-
ity. There are two basic points of view on this issue: some scientists feel
that the rise in material prosperity is conducive to a rise in the birth rates;
the other point of view (expressed most clearly by S. G. Strumilin, member of
the academy) is that the rise of material prosperity operates in precisely the
opposite direction. As for certain other important factors, there exist more
generally recognizQd conceptions, for example, in assessment of the role of the
_ employment of women in the sphere of social labor and the related change in
woman's social role and social status as a factor operating in the direction of
~
* VESTNIK LGU, SER. EKONOMIKI, FILOSOFII I PRAVA, Vol 2, No 11, 1965, p 140.
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reduction of the fertility rate. The woman, who once had little schooling, is
_ now educated, once economically dependent, sh~ has now become independent, eco-
nomically self-sufficient, and once a housewife who had a low status, she has
become an independent and skilled worker. The result of all this is that child-
birth and the bringing up of children are playing an ever smaller role in wom-
en's lives. Between and among the individual factors in reproduction of the
population there are interconnections which are not always obvious; that is, de-
tecting them is most problematical for those who study these phenomena. It is
apparently because of this complexity that such a fact as the birth rate, as the
family's need for children, has been studied so very little.
This factor's interrelationship with other factors can in our opinion be exam-
ined only in the context of the law of rising needs advanced by K. Marx and
_ elaborated by V. I. Lenin (see the chart)
Place of the Family's Need for Children Among the Other Socioeconomic Factors in
the Various Stages of Development of the USSR (in the context of planned parent-
hood)
Period of Com-
pletion of Con-
~ struction of Ad-
vanced Socialist Period of Com-
Rank- 1930's, first 1960's, second Society, third munist Society,
_ in~_ stage stage stage fourth stage
1 Need to work for the following reasons:
Source of sub- Source of sub- Social inter- Comprehensive
sistence (ne- sistence (ne- course development of
cessity) cessity) Source of sub- the personal-
Social inter- Social inter- sistence (ne- ity
course cour~e cessity) Social inter-
Comprehensive Compreh~nsive Comprehensive courae
= development of development of development of Source of sub-
the personal- thP F~ersonal- the personality sistence
ity ity
2 Need for primary conditions of Need for child- Need for educa-
life, including: ren: tion, includ-
ing:
Food, clothing Food, clothing Perpetuation of
Housing Housing the speCies Higher education
Private trans- Private trans- Source of family and scientific
_ portation portation {au- ~oy and happi- activity
~ tomobile and ness Secondary educa-
so on) Fulfillment of tion: general
social d~~ty and specialized
~
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Table (continued)
Period of Com-
pletion of Con-
struct3on of Ad-
vanced Socialist Period of Com-
Rank- 1930's, first 1960's, second Society, third munist Society,
ing,_ stage stage stage fourth stage
3 Need for child- Need for nonworking time, including free time, for
ren: the following:
Perpetuation of Doing housework Rest and enter.- Hobby and cre-
the species Rest and enter- tainment ativity
Material sup- tainment Hobby Rest and enter-
- port in old Hobby and cre- Doing housework tainment
age ativity Doing housework
Source of fam-
ily 3oy and
happiness .
- 4 Need for non- Need for pduca- Need f~r primary Need for child-
working time, tion, includ- conditions of ren:
including free ing: life, includ-
time, for the ing: Perpetuation of
following: Secondary, gen- the species
eral and spe- Housing Source of family
Doing housework cialized Private trans- ~oy and happi-
Rest and enter- Higher educa- portation (au- ness
tainment tion and sci- tomobile and Fulfillment of
_ Hobby and cre- entific activ- so on) social duty
ativity ity Food, clothing
Elementarlr and
incomplete
secondary edu-
catior_, in-
cluding voca-
tional train-
ing
5 Need for educa- Need for child- Need for educa- Need for primary
tion, includ- ren: tion, includ- conditions ofi
ing: ing: life, includ-
Perpetuation of ing:
Incomplete sec- the species Higher education
ondary, in- Source of fam- and scientific Private tran~-
cluding voca- ily ~oy and activity portation (au-
- tional educa- happiness Secondary: gen- tomobile and so
tion Material sup- eral and spe- on)
Secondary educa- port in old cialixed Housing
- tion: general age Food, clothing
and specialized
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- The chart represents an attempt to determine the hierarchy of the family's neede
and the place which the need .for children has among them. We consider it possi-
ble in principle, though as yet we are not making such an attempt, to quantita-
tively evaluate (in points on a scale) the importance of each need and the change
of this hierarchy from one stage to the next. Since the chart is mainly methodo-
logical in nature, it is more correct to show only those stages whi.ch are charac-
terized by substantial differences. The purpose of discovering the hierarchy of
needs, including the need for children, is to obtain an answer to the question:
What sort of needs and with what level of significance must be met before the
family (in the context of planned parenthood) decides to have a child? Without
prejudging the :~~iestion of which child in order we are referring to, we are
thinking as a rule of the "critical" case--the birth of the third child and sub-
sequent childrPn.
- This chart is also convenient for a more thorough etudy of opinions in an inves-
tigation of the factors in the birth rate. In the few writings that do exiat on
this question, in particular the meaningful book of V. A. Belova and L. Ye.
_ Darskiy,* a study of the reproductive principles in the stage of shaping the
family and of opini~ns and family plans for parenthood does not contain a de-
tailed analysis of the socioeconomic needs of the family for children.
This chart is in need of certain clarifications. The stages in the USSR's ao-
cial and demographic development are given very provisionally. They do not co-
incide altogether with the assessment of the stages of the country's economic
development that exists in our literature, since demographic development, as
that process which has the highest inertia, as a rule lags behind social and
economic development.
- Five groups of social and ecor~omic factors determining rhe level o~ the birth
rate in the family are proposed:
i, the need to work;
ii. the need for primary conditions of life;
iii. the family's need for children;
. iv. the need for nonworking time, inaluding free time;
v. the need for education.
These groups of needs persist in all stages of social and economic development,
but in each of them the place of the family's need for children changes place
relative to the other factors, and within the various groups of needs there is a
change in the ranking of the particular subgroup as a function of its "weight"
(significance). A change in the significance of the parricul~r factor (i.e.,
their regrouping) also presupposes a change in the level of the birth rate,
* V. A. Belova and L. Ye. Darskiy, "Statistika mneniy v izuchenii pozhdayemosti"
[Opinion Research in Studying the Birth Rate], Moacow, 1972.
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which, we believe, can be forecast assuming this system is formalized to some
extent: for example, by introducing a system of points on a scale both for each
group of needs and also for each subgroup.
We will examine the two extreme stages--the first and fourth--as an examYle.
In the thirties, ~ust as in cummunist society, the need to work is regarded as a
basic condition for existence of each able-bodied member of society. But in the
thirties work is a source of ineans of subs3.stence, that is, work by necessity,
was that factor within this grvup that was first in significance. But in the
period of the communist mode of production the grimar~.~ factor in the need to
work is comprehensive development of the personality as one, and moreover the
most important, of the conditions for transforming labor into a primary vital
need. This by no means signifies that the need to work as a source of ineans of
subsistence has altogether disappeared. But there ie no Question that this as-
pect wi11 not be dominant over the other aspects of work.
The second group of needs in the thirties was the need for primary conditions of
life, first of all food and clothing, and then housing and private transporta-
- tion.
Allowing for a certain amount of provisionality, and this indeed applies to
- evaluation of all the groups and subgroups, attention is obviously drawn here to
the need for private transportation, or, more accurately, family transportation,
as one of the primary needs. The reference is above all to the need for a means
of the individual's reaching the place where he applies his labor. In subse-
quent stages the content of this need and the means of satisfying it are gradu-
ally transformed (the private means of transportation is used more and more in
time that is free of work, retaining, however, its importance as one of the pri-
mary conditions of life).
. In the fourth stage the entire group of needs referred to as the primary condi-
tions of life still persist. But since satisfaction of the needs of the popnla-
tion for clothing, food and houainA will be achieved at optimum ].evels in the
previous stages, they have been put in second and third place here. Means of
, transportation move into first place; it provides not only for movement to the
place where work is applied, but also the other movem~nts which the family
needs.
We advance the family's need for children as the most complicated and debatable
grouY of needs. At first it might not seem altogether justified for this need
to be in the third place in the first stage, though, as we know, those years
were distinguished by the highest level of the birth rate. But we should empha-
size that this entire chart presupposes planned parenthood, which in the thir-
ties had a relatively small place in the overall birth rate. The 3ivision
within this group is particularly debatable, since what would seem to be a bio-
logical need--the need to perpetuate the species--is put in first pl.ace. But as
we understand it, perpetuation of the specips has not only biological signifi-
cance, but also social significance.
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This chart reflects the author's sub~ective point of view concerning the charac-
ter of planning parenthood and the significance of the factors determining the
family's need for children. This point of view is based on theoretical general-
ization of the actual natural population movement, primarily in. the largest re-
gions of our country with a high share of urban population (RSFSR, UkSSR, BSSR).
The low birth rates in the sixties and early seventies are mainly the result of
the fact that the socioeconomic need for children has for a number of reasons
dropped to one of the last places with young families. We can suppose that the
period of completing an altogether advanced socialist society in our country
will be characterized by a sharp rise in the significance of the family's need
for children.
The need for children in coa~unist society, as is evident from the chart,, drops
off once again, and within the group a new subgroup of factors--fulfillment of
social duty--moves forward. In regarding this factor not only as a family duty,
but also as a social duty, we have in mind the ob3ective need and possibility of
attaining the best correspondence between the demographic tasks of society as a
whole and those of the individual family.
in the fourth stage the aaed for nonworking time, including free time, which as-
sumes a qualitatively new character, advances into third place. Whereas in the
thirties, when the system of public services was poorly developed, this need was
determined more than anything else by time-consuming housework, under communism
hobbies and creativity, as well as rest and entertainment mnve into th~ fore-
ground.
The greatest transformation is in the need for education. '?Jhereas in the first
stage it was provisionally put in fifth place, in the fourth it moves into sec-
ond. Moreaver, in the thirties the predominant need was to obtain partial and
co:~plete second~ry education, whereas in communist society it is transformed
into the need for higher education and scientific ~ctivity.
We can take an analogous view of the change of [the other] needs in all stages.
However, it seems to us, it is important to demonstrate only the methodological
approach co the distribution of these groups of factors. This chart is only an
attempt to find one of the methodological forms of forecasting trends of the
birth rate, one that requires a comprehensive--not ~ust qualitative, but also
quantitative--estimation of the significance of each group and subgroup of needs
which figure as factors determining the level of the birth rate.
In moving on to the question of demographic policy, we will attempt to compare
differences among the numerous definitions available in the literature of the
content of demographic policy.
In the strict sense demographic policy is regarded as performance of ineasures
which can have a direct effect on the level of the birth rate, since at the
present time it is the factor determining the natural population growth (with
= respect ta the demographic situation in the USSR the reference is to the need to
raise the level of the birth rate in a number af the country's r~gions). It can
thus be said that in the strict sense of the word present-day demographic policy
is viewed as a measure to stimulate the birth rate.
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In a broader sense demographic policy includes all measures which can affect a~l
demographic processes, not only directly, but also indirectly, in order to bring
about desirable changes in them.
Through specific economic and social measures socioeconomic policy also has an
impact on reproduction of the population (through formation of the family and so
on). But only certain specific measures aimed at a more direct impact on repro-
duction of the population--for example, laws on abortion (allowing or prohibit-
ing them), measures to stimulate the birth rate and development of a family
(both by means of supplemental benefits to the family for children, and also
with the help of taxes on those without children)--can be classified under the
head of demographic policy. And there is hardly any basis for placing all so-
cioeconomic measures that have an effect on movement of the population under the
head of demographic policy.
What are the tasks of demographic policy in the present stage and in the future?
The process of social reproduction includes ttee reproduction not only of mate-
rial elements, but also of man himself. His reproduction is one of the most
complicated processes and is sub~ect to the effect of a set of factors. But
within ttiat set of factors we must single out the economic factor as the~deci-
sive one, since the roaterial conditions of life determine the very possibility
of reproduction of the population. The birth rate is gradually and to an ever
greater degree becoming a pr~cess that is regulated and managed by the family,
one that is directly related to the character of social reprorluction.
As we know, there are two types of social reprodu~~ion: extensive and inten-
sive. In extensive reproduction the basic growth of the social product is
achieved by increasing the mass of live labor, while in intensive reproduction
this is done by increasing labor productivity. Extensive reproduction ob~ec-
tively necessitates a corresponding accelerated reproduction of manpower and
_ therefore of the population as well.
Intensive expanded reproduction does not require 3 rapid quantitative reproduc-
tion of the population, since the rise of labor productivity is related above
all to the qualitative developm~nt of manpower and the population, which is ex-
pressed in a rise in the level of general education and vocational and technical
education of the workers, in improvement of their knowledge related to occupa-
- tional qualifications.
The character of social productipn is thus related to employment of the popula-
tion and determines its level. In a situation when there is an ob~ective need
for a large quantity of live labor, the need also arises for a set of ineasures
aimed at stimulating the birth rate. Intensive development indeed requires re-
production of manpower at an increasingly high level of quality. This must in-
evitably result in larger demographic investments per "unit" of population,
i.e., larger outlays of society for the training, upbritsging and in general
- more prolonged support of the upcoming generation at the expense of society.
'The capitalist countries, which are at a high level of econamic development, are
in the present stage transferring the burden of expanded reproduction of the
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I~t)R t)I~F'IC'1:11. t~tih' ()N1.1
population onto countries which are poorly developed from the econemic stand-
point by exploiting not only their natural resources, but also their labor re~
' ~ources. In essence they are plundering those countries, setting up enterprises
in them for extraction of raw maCerials and other labor-intensive production op-
- erations and remunerating the work of the local population at the lowest level:
- a fraction of the remuneration of workers in the home countries. This plunder-
ing is also accomplished by "purchasing" skilled manpower, beginning with
skilled workers, technicians and engineers and ending with the most valuable
scientists of those countries.
Under the conditions of socialism the process of ex~anded reproduction of man-
power differs fundamentally from its reproduction under capitalism. Th~ authen-
tically humanistic attitude toward labor resources (since in the socialist con-
text they are not only an object, but also a sub3ect on whose behalf the 3ctual
reproduction of society is being accomplished) requires, and the high level of
economic development makes possible, both the extensive and also intensive types
_ of reproduction under the conditions of full employment of the population. It
is striking that although the present level of the birth rate in our countrq as
a whole ensures a rather high level of expanded reproduction of the popuiation,
in certain ma3or economic regions, including entire union republics (RSFSR,
, BSSR, UkSSR), and especiatly in certain cities, this level of reproduction is
below what we would like. The conclusion therefore follows that a broad set of
socioeconomic measures needs to be worked out to promote a rise in the birth
rate in those regions of the country where it is most "unfavorable."
In the more remote future, when scientific-technical progress provides such a
- high productivity of labor that the sphere of material production will not need
additional manpower, and the rise in labor productivity will depen~i to a greater
degree on the rise of the level of education, i.e., on the "quality" of the new
generations, the need for accelerated growth of the population will gradually
lose its importance.
Certain Problems in Intensification of Reproduction of Manpower*
The Concept "Intensification of Reproduction of Manpower"
In recent years an altogether definite and constructive conception has taken
shape in Marxist-Leninist political economy concerning the content of reproduc-
tion of manpower as a process tinat includes formation of manpower, its distribu-
tion (and under the conditions of capitalism, in which manpower is a commodity,
its circulation) and the use of manpower.
~xpanded reproduction of manpawer may be predominantly extensive or predomi-
nantly intensive in nature.
* Reprinted with certain changes from the publication "Ekonomicheskaya effek-
tivnast' obshchestvennogo proi;~vodstva v period razvitogo sotsializma" [Economic
Efficiency of Social Production in the Period of Advanced Socialism], Moscow,
1977, Chapter 10.
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The formation of manpower takes place above a11 through the maintenance and res-
toration of the individual's ability to work, which is constantly being expended,
used, in the work procesa. This is simple reproduction of manpower.
Expanded reproduction of manpower occurs extensively if its size increases with
no change in its level of quality. A most important feature of the predomi-
nantly intensive formation of manpower is a rise in its level of education and
occupational qualifications, i.e., its level of quality.
Distribution of manpower (of labor resources) is the process of .socioeconomic
placement of the able-bodied population by regions, spheres of activity, occupa-
- tions, sectors and areas of labor, a process that may be accomglished in various
forms which are peculiar to the particular socioeconomic formation. Under so-
cialism socially organized farms of distribution of manpower arise and develop:
government distribution of young people who have graduated from WZ's and voca-
tional and technical sch~ol; appeals to young volunteers for newly built e.nter-
prises, and so on.
But even in the context of the predominantly intensive type of expanded repro-
duction of manpower its extensive type is used as a supplemental factor ensuring
full employment of the able-bodied population. But at the present time the ca-
pabilities of extensive expanded reproduction of manpower are almost exhausted
in the USSR. The level of emgloyment in an absolute majority of the economic
regions of the country has already reached the limit, and the possibilities of
attracting additional labor resources com~ down mainly to the natural growtih of
the able-bodied population.
The rise of expenditures for reproduction of manpower, expressed in changes in
- the level of living, is also an indicator of the intensiveness of reproduction
of manpower. In the extensive type of reproduction of manpower indicators of
health, average life span, the level of culture and technical education, moral
and political characteristics and labor productivity of the individual remain
unchanged. Only the size of the able-bodied population ~nd the size of the
- work force increase. In intensive reproduction expenditures for manpower (in
per capita terms) increase, which creates the basis for improvement of these
qualitative indicators of the development of manpower for a growth of the na-
tional income by virtue of investments in the "hwnan factor" as well as other
factors.
Though in practice the two forms exist in unity, under present conditions the
intensive form is assuming predominant importance; in this form the share of in-
vestments in the "human factor" systematieally increases by comparison with in-
vestments in the material factor (means of production and so on).
In discussing enhancement of the role of the "human factor" in the rise of effi-
= ciency, we must not overlook the fact that it is governed by the character of
contemporary technical progress, which i~nvolves the need for a faster rise in
the level of worker qualification, whereas this took place considerably more
slowly in the previous stage of development of technology.
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This is specifically indicated by the substantial differences that exist in re-
alization times of major scientific discoveries.
The relatively slow assimilation of new technology and production methods in ~he
previous stage of developmezt was manifested by ~he absence in t~at period of
any substantial absolute reduction of the amount of manpower and liberation of
manpower at existing en~erprises, accompanied by worker retraining. But even in
that period, when the assembly-line system began to be applied on a particularly
large scale, disqualification of manpower did not occur in our country, by con-
trast with the economically advanced capitalist countries. In the context of
" the rapi3 growth of the number of workers on the assembly line, other types of
work requiring little skill were done by the newly arriving workers who did not
have any qualifications at all, and there was a certain lag in the development
of the personal factor in production behind it~s material factors. This is ex-
plained to a considerable degree by sub~ective factors, specifically the factor
such as the training of qualified personnel was not sufficiently future-ori-
ented.
The importance of the qualitative factor in the gxowth of labor resources and of
raising the level of education of the population and the relative share of
skilled labor rises in the formation of labor resources in the period of ad-
vanced socialism.
In the present stage reproduction of labor resources is characterized by an es-
sential rise in the level of manageability of this process by comparison with
the previous stage thanks to improvement of the social mechanism of material and
moral work incentives and development of vocational guidance and the pr,~filing
of training to fit the work to be done. Redistribution of manpower has a larger
role in furnishing skilled personnel to the national economy (above all to speed
up attainment of rated capacity at new enterprises), including redistribution of
manpower beyond the confines of enterprises, sectors and regions.
At the same time it is becoming increasingly important to intensify the repro-
duction of manpower in order to raise the efficiency of social production. As
cve know, the principal means of raising the efficiency of social production is
to raise the productivity of labor, which in turn depends both on technical
progress and also on the quality of manpower, on the optimality of its distribu-
tion and on the effectiveness of its use.
_ Essential differences in significance and degree of treatment of the problems of
_ reproduction of manpower make it advisable to take a selective approach to ana-
lyzing the components of intensification of reproduction of manpower as factors
in the rise of labor productivity. Reckoning in thia context on the high sig-
nificance of a rise in the education of manpower as a factor in the rise of la-
bor productivity, we will examine this aspect of reproduction of manpower first
of all. At the same time, there is great interest in the impact which the pro-
_ cess of the rising share of women in total employment has on the dynamtc behav-
ior of labor productivity and thereby on the efficiency of social production as
well.
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lY11t clt~'FY~~~:~1 t :ti1~ ~?\1 \
Education and the Rise in the Efficiency of Social Production
In view of the scientific-technical revolution and the need to bring the quality
of manpower and new implements of labor and production technology into confor-
mity with development of social.ist production relations, the significance of the
various factors in development of social production is being reevaluated, and
more importance being given to the human factor. ~er greater importance is be-
ing attributed to improvement of the qualifications of workers, to improved use
of skilled personnel, to discovering natural abilities of those employed in pro-
~ duction, to creating conditions for productive labor, and to improvement of
workplace adequacy. These main economic reserves and important factors for
speeding up economic development and for raising social prospsrity are interre-
- lated and constitute an indivisible whole. Using that potential necessitates a
more comprehensive target-program approach to the development and use of man-
power resources than has been the case up to now.
In the light of the connections of all the elements in thia whole, the conclu-
sion is inescapable that education has the basic r.ole in comprehensive develop-
- ment of the human personality (education in the broad sense, including upbring-
ing and vocational training).
A great deal of research has been done on the queation of education's impact on
the rise of the socioeconomic efficiency of social production and on the rise of
labor productivity in particular. Back in the thirties, when it was customary
to set education in opposition to practical experience from the standpoint of
their impact on the rise of labor productivity, it was proven in the writings of
S. G. Strumilin on the economics of higher education* that dPVelopment of educa-
tion through improvement of qualifications is a most important factor in raising
labor productivity and moreover is more economical than practical experience.
But the rise in the share of funds required to raise the level of education of ~
the population and the ever larger movement of young people into the system of
education are raising the problem of determining the impact of tlle particular
form in which education is obtained on the rise in the efficiency of social pro-
duction and above all on the rise of labor productivity. But in th~ postwar pe-
riod no specific surveys and studies have been made of the specific impact of
education on the rise of labor productivity and growth of the national income
(this impact has been discussed in the Soviet economics literature in the most
general terms).
- Iri the foreign literature quantitative estimation of the impact of education on
labor productivity is done on the basis of the theory of the production function.
But actual computations of the significance of these factors differ from one
economist to the other. For instance, according to the computations of the
American economist E. Dennison, who has thoroughly studied this question, th~
contribuzion of the level of education to the growth rates of labor productivity
in the United States was 0.7 percent in the 1950-1962 period, 0.9 percent in the
1929-1957 period, this figure being an annual average. According to the
* See, for example, the book: S. G. Strumilin, "Izbrannyye proizveden3.ya" [Se-
lected Works], Vol 3, Moscow, 1964, p 110 and elsawhere.
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M'OR (11~6'l('L41. 1!Sh' (1N1.1'
~:~timutes of u~iotl~~,r Amerlcrui ycientiet--D. Schwartzman, this indicator is one-
third as much: 0.3 percent per year over the 1929-1963 period. The American
economist E. Rolph calculated that over the period 1939-1964 labor productivity
in the United States, computed in terms of gross national product per worker,
rose an average of 2.8 percent per year, 2.1 percent of which was achieved by
- organizational and technical progress and 0.7 percent by improvement of worker
qualifications.*
Ttao groups of f actors in the growth of labor productivity are distinguished in
the literature: 1) human development and 2) development of engineering and
technology (including the organization of production). There are many circum-
stances that make it difficult to break down each of these groups, in particular
the fact that they overlap and in their interaction duplicate one another to
some degree. It is especially complica_ed to isolate the influence of education
on the rise of labor productivity. According to our calculations (based on the
data of the population census), the average worker's years of schooling and gen-
eral and specialized education increased from 6.1 years in 1959 to 8.8 years in
1970. According t~ a rough calculation, as a result of adoption of universal
lOth-grade education of young people and the further spread of secondary spe-
cialized education and higher education, the average worker's amount of school-
ing had risen to 9.8 years by 1975.
_ The results of the calculations of E. Dennison showed that the rise of education
resulted in a~ise of 0.62 percentage point in the national income in the United
States, 0.3 percentage point in northwest Europe, and 0.56 percentage point in
Italy.**
. As Ya. B. Kvash has rightly noted, these differPnces indicate that the signifi-
cance of 1 year of schooling varies with the total amount of schooling, but they
also indicate that the strength of education's impact on the growth of the na-
tional income depends on the peculiarities of the economic structures of differ-
ent countries.
- According to the calculation of Ya. B. Kvash, which to some extent is analogous
to the computational method used by E. Dennison, the average annual growth rate
of labor productivity in the national income resulting from the impact of educa-
tion has been at least 0.5 percent in the USSR. This contribution of education
to the growth of social productivity of labor could be considerably more we~ghty
if we optimize the distribution of education. Optimizing the educational system
in the present stage would in our opinion require the following first of all:
i. a change in the distribution of education, whose most important indicator is
the ratio between general education and vocational (specialized) education, and,
"within" the latter--a change in level of education in various spheres of labor
and by occupation;
* A. V. Barysheva, "Proizvoditel'nost' truda v razvitykh kapitalisticheskikh
- stranakh" [Labor Productivity in the Advanced Capitalist Countries], Moscow,
1974, p 30.
E. Dennison, "Issledovaniye razlichiy v tempakh ekonomicheskogo rosta"
[Study of Differences in Economic Growth Rates], Moscow, 1974, p 217.
4
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FUR OFFI('IAI. USF. ON1,Y
- ii. reduction of differences in level of education from one economic region to
another, from one sphere of labor to another and fram one occupation to another.
The problem of optimizing the ratio between general education and specialized
training is a complicated one and needs the most fixed attention of economists.
If we were to figuratively liken general education to the foundation, then spe-
cialized (vocational) education would figure as the building itself, which takes
the particular functional load, and without it general education has no access
to the practice of society's economic davelopment.
The strategy for development of education in the context of advanced socialism
is governed by a social task--comprehensive development of the personality. But
it would be incorrect to set the performance of social tasks in opposition to
eGOnomic tasks, since in the final analysis the performance of social tasks is
based on the economic results of social groduction as a whole, and in this case
_ this relationship is even a direct one. For instance, it is necessary from both
the social aspect and also the economic aspect to set up a system of educational
training which would make it possible to attain the maximum mutual understanding
among all members of society and above all in the work process among the par-
ticipants in social production. This might be described as occupational mutual
- understanding. But according to the data of engineering psychology and other
ergonomic studies, it is very important to the most optimum organization of the
work process and consequently to raising the economic efficiency of. production
as well. All members of society need to be brought closer together in their
level of education if fuller mutual understanding is to be achieved.
The second (by logic of exposition, but first in its practical importance) di-
rection for increasing the economic effectiveness of education as a factor in
raising the efficiency of social production, a direction directly related to op-
timization of the distribution of education, is attainment of a correspondence
between the level of requirements indispensable to use of the means of produc-
tion being employed and the level of kno~wledge possessed by the people using
those means.
Finally, the third direction for increasing the socioeconomic effectiveness of
education lies in increasing the level of man's ~ob satisfaction, which depends
both on the level of education he has attained and also on the character of the
work and specifically on the complexity of th~ technique being used. We will
not touch upon this latter problem in the development of education, which has
already been studied (mainly by sociologists), nor will we dwell in detail on
other problems of increasing the economic effectiveness of education, especially
= improvement of the quality of education, which are less acute, and though essen-
tially important, they have been substantially studied. I wi11 pay principal
~ attention to the distr~bution of education, and specifically to the relationship
between general and vocational education in the training of workera for the most
common occupations, and to the problem of eliminating the socioeconomic differ-
ences among the eountry's economic regions related to differences in the level
of education between workers doing mental work and those doing physical work.*
* Actually we are dealing with workers whose work is predominantly physical or
predominantly mental, but for the sake of brevity we w311 hereafter be using the
terms "physical workers" and "mental workers."
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- An analysis of the level and dynamic development of the qualifications of work-
ers leads to the conclusion that as work at enterprises is organized at present
higher educational and vocational training of the workers often does not find
expression in a rise of their vocational skills. This diminishes the motivation
to attain a higher level of education amd through feedback has an inhibitive ef-
fect on raising the economic effectiveness of education as a factor in economic
growth.
_ It seems extremely important, then, to achieve a faster rise in the qualifica-
tions of young people both in order to raise the general economic effectiveness
of the system of young people's education and also directly to raising the
growth rates of labor productivity.
In recen~ years the average values of the coefficient of fulfillment of output
quotas have been rising for workers who have a higher wage-scale rating. It is
usually said in explanation of this fact that quotas are less strict for ~obs
with higher ratings. At the same time an analye~s conducted by A. I. Gol'den-
berg of 20 occupational groups which were examined showed that the rise in the
percentage of fulfillment of the output quota for workers in higher ratings also
resulted from the fact that usually the worker performed work of a lower rating
than his own more productively under the same conditions than when it was per-
formed by a worker of a lower rating. For instance, it follows fxom the figures
of a sample survey of 21,000 workers in machinebuilding, which was conducted by
NIITruda [Scientific Research Institute of Labor],* that the actual qualifica-
tion** of workers in Rating I was on the average one rating higher than their
wage-scale qualifications, and for worker�s in Rating II--0.5 rating.
It is not infrequently pointed out in the literature that labor productivity of
workers who have increased their qualification by one rating rises 15-20 per-
cent, but the expYanation is not given that this occurs thanks to the "effect of
the qualification." The recoam~endation is made thereafter that worker ratings
be increased only so that the average rating of the ~ob operations is higher
~ than the average rating of the workers. Higher-level organizations require en-
terprises to abide by this recommendation very carefully.
At the present time one of the principal tasks of the lOth Five-Year Plan is to
substantially improve the quality of products produced, and accomplishment of
technical progress requires that the pace of putting products into production
and of renewing them be stepped up considerably.
The requirement advanced by A. I. Gol'denberg, to the effect that the level of
worker qualification should correspond not to the level of work already being
* A. P. Prigarin, V. M. Ryss et al., "Napryazhennost' norm truda" [The Strenu-
ousness of Work Quotas], Moscow, 1968, pp 72, 73 and 86; L. E. Kunel'skiy, "So-
tsial'noekonomicheskiye problemy zarabotnoy platy" [Socioeconomic Problems of
Wages], Ntoscow, 1972.
By the actual qualification we mean in this case the qualification reflect-
ing the ability to fulfill the output quota in work of the rating which has been
earned at the level attained by almost all representatives of that rating in the
same occupation at the given enterprise.
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performed, be~t to the average rating of that work which is being prepared for
production, is more correct in this context. In other wor~s, the level of
worker qualificaticros m~st meet the level of complexity of that work they are to
perform in the period of putting a new product into production, which substan-
tially exceeds the complexity of work in producing a product already assimi-
lated. This higher level of worker qualifications will promote not only success-
ful accomplishment of technical progress, but, as a consequence, a rise af labor
productivity on the scale of the entire national economy as well, and indeed
even a rise of labor productivity within each industrial enterprise. A. I.
Gol'denberg is quite right when he says that we need to dispense with the out-
dated and essentially erroneous idea that has persisted in economic theory and
production practice that it is sufficient to successful development of produc-
tion that the average rating of the enterprisQ's workers be equal to the average
rating of the work done at that enterprise. To the point where the level of
worker qualifications is actually considerably lower than the average rating of
the jobs they perform the average impact of this requirement on the rise of
~ worker qualifications has been manifested very slightly. But at the present
time, when the nominal and real level of worker qualifications has risen consid-
erably, and technical progress is advancing high requirements concerning quali-
fications, it is indispensable that the average ra~ing be raised further to meet
those requirements. A. I. Gol'denberg has accordingly advanced and backed up
with sound arguments the proposal that worker skill ratings be raised regardless
' of the relationship between the ratings of the work and the ratings of the work-
ers.*
When the average rating of the work done is higher than the average skill rating
of the workers (provided fulfillment of output quotas is no lower than the aver-
age 1QVe1), this shows that there is a lag in conforming to the qualification
which has actually been attained, and this in turn threatens to hold back the
subsequent rise in the qualifications of this group of workers.
Taking into account everything that we have already said, an atmosphere needs to
be created at enterprises tha~t is more conducive to improvement of the actual
qualifications of the workers regardless of the relationship between the rating
of the work and the skill rating of the workers. At many enterprises in a num-
ber of sectors workers spend a substantial part of their time doing work rated
lower than their wage-scale rating. However, the supplement paid to piece-rate
workers "because of a change in working conditions," in particular for work
which is two ratings or more below their wage-scale rating, is only a few tenths
- of a percentage point of their wages throughout the entire industrial sector,
Consequently, carrying out these recommendations does not imply a real threat to
overexpenditure of the wage fund.** The management of the enterprise, relieved
* "Methods of Mathematical Economics for Studying the Mechanism of Material
1~Iork Incentives, Elemen ts of Work Time and Worker Qualifications," author's ab-
stract of a candidate's dissertation, Moscow, 1974, pp 11-15.
This can also be confirmed by data for seven enterprises in Rostovskaya Ob-
last, where the lag of wage-sca1P ratings averaged at least 0.7 rating and went
as high as 1.5 ratings. It is advisable to keep the tendency for the actual
quaZification to exceed the wage-scale rating within zhe limits of a certain op-
timum close to one wage-scale rating.
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1~()R (ll~h'1('IA1. llti~~; (1N1,1'
a
of the need to adhere to the recommendation mentioned previously, will have a
_ real opportunity to encourage tutoring among piece-rate workers with material
and moral incentives.
We will examine further the problem of equalizing the level of worker educati~n
in the countr~'s different economic regions.
It can be stated even a priori that the significan~ce of this problem is very
great, since along with the population's state of health, education is a deci-
sive element in the formation of labor resources--the principal productive force
of any particular region in the country. However, if breaking down the factor
of education presents exceptional difficulties in analyzing the factors in the
growth of labor productivity even at the level of the enterprise and in a sec-
toral breakdown, these difficulties are multiplied many times over when this
factor is being broken down in the dynamic behavior of the effectiveness of the
economic development of an entire region which possesses an interrelated complex
of sectors. The difficulties lie in the fact that the role of education in
equalizing the level of economic development of particular regions has not been
studied at all so far.
Acknowledging the full complexity of the problem under study, we have renounced
an attempt at comprehensive analysis of the impact of equalizing the level of
education as a whole on raising the social productivity of labor by union repub-
lic and have confined our task solely to analyzing the degree of differences in
_ level of eaucation among the union republics and to an attempt to determine di-
rections �~r closing those gaps.
Our initial hypothesis is that the essential differences in level of education
of the population, as already noted, are a factor holding back the rise of the
social productivity of labor, and eliminating those differences is a factor that
speeds up that growth. We relate that proposition to the fact that departing
from the extensive strategy of economic development is advancing higher require-
ments with respect ta worker qualifications. This makes it necessary to raise
and equalize the level of education of the population and its leveY of occupa-
tional qualifications. At the same time the state interest of the entire nation
requires that an increasingly sizable share of labor resources be made available
for redistribution to the country's eastern regions. But in recent years the
" role of the country's economic regions which are industrially advanced in the
settlement and economic development of the eastern regions, in particular Si-
beria and the Far East, has dropped off appreciably. Yet even under those con-
ditions migration performs an important social function of transferring to the
new regions the progressive methods of economic activity from the settled re-
gions.
Table 1 presents figures characterizing differentiation of the republics and
types of labor with respect to the level of education of the employed popula-
tion. In that table the union republics are ranked in descending order on the
basis of the leveZ of education attained by the entire employed population.
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FOR AFFIC'1;11. t!~F' (1N1.1'
Table 1. Number of Man-Years of Education Per Employed Person*
Entire Engaged Primarily in
Employed Physical Mental Difference
Union Repuhlic Population Labor Labor (Col 4- Col 3)
1 2 3 4 5
Georgian 9.19 7.68 12.81 5.13
Armenian 8.91 7.44 12.16 4.72
~,zerbai3an 8.69 7.30 12.30 S.GO
Latvian 8.51 7.10 11.85 4.75
Estonian 8.49 7.11 1]..66 4.55
Uzbek 8.49 7.32 11.94 4.62
Ukrainian 8.46 7.25 12.17 4.92
RSFSR 8.37 6.97 11.18 4.21
Kirghiz 8.29 7.04 12.01 4.97
Belorussian 8.02 6.70 12.06 5.36
Tajik 7.95 6.88 11.78 4.90
Turkmen 7.93 7.19 11.76 4.57
- Kazakh 7.49 5_56 ~~_~n ~ ni
- - - - -
Lithuanian 7.46 6.01 11.86 5.85
Moldavian 7.33 6.29 12.05 5.76
_ Correlation coefficients: Col 2 and Col 3= 0.853; Col 2 and Col 4= U.491;
Col 3 and Col 5=-0.832; Col 4 and Col 5= 0.041.
* The calculations were made according to the figures of the 1970 Population
Census.
The figures in Table 1 distinctly show that the level of education does not take
the form of an average arithmetic quantity with small deviations fxom that aver-
~ge, but as a quantity with large differences in level of education from one re-
public to another and within them from one type of work to another and one group
~f occupati~ns to anoth~r.
Differences in level of education between physical workers and mental workers
are indicated by figures on differences in the level of education per employed
person (in man-years): RSFSR--4.21; ESSR--4.55; TuSSR--4.57; UzSSR--4.62;
ArSSR--4.72; LaSSR-�-4.75; TaSSR--4.90; UkSSR--4.92; KiSSR--4.97; AzSSR--S;
GSSR--5.13; BSSR--5.36; MSSR--5.76; LiSSR--5.85; KaSSR--6.04.
The figures we have obtained on the relationship in education between mental and
physical workers can be analyzed in relation to figures on the sphere of educa-
tion proper and also in relation to the patterns of social production as a whole,
including rep~oduction of socioeconomic relations. If we undertake this analy-
sis solely from the former point of view and obtain the correlation of the con-
nection between levels of education of inenta~ and physical workers by republics,
_ an the one hand, and the size of the difference between these levels on the
other, the line of argument should be as follows.
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~~uK c~FK�~rt.a~. r;~r~ ati~.~
We will. adopt some notations.
U--average level of educaticn of inental workers; F--average level of education
of physical workers; R--size of the gap (in man-years of education) between the
quantities iT and F(R = U- F); CRU--coefficient of correlation between the
quantities R and U; CgF--coefficient of correlation between the quantities R
and F.
Comparing the correlation coefficients C~U and Cg~, we can presumably resolve
the question of which typQ of edu cation--higher and secondary specialized educa-
- tion, which determines the level of education of workers doing primarily mental
- work, or general and vocational and technical education, wh~ch determines the
= level of education of workers doing primarily physical labor--needs to be devel-
oped first. At the same time two simplified assumptions are made:
1) that there exists an optimum gap between U and F, which moreover is in the
end shaping up properly in the average for the country, but there may be appre-
ciable dispr oportions within the various republics;
2) that that indicator (U or F) which characterizes differences between the re-
publics ref lects the basic pattern of formation of the level of education. The
other one, therefore, should be "ad~usted" to it, and not the other way about.
Then if CRU > C~, the variations (differences between them) are determined pri-
marily by th e variation of U. Consequently, specialized (more accurately,
higher and s econdary specialized) education should primarily be developed; but
if CR~ > CRU--then general education should primarily be developed.
It turned out from the data of the analysis that CRU =-0.832; Cg~ = 0.041, i.e.,
~RF > ~RU� Cansequently, for the country as a whole we need to develop general
and vocational and technical education first. �
This conclus ion is a formal one, b ut it is correct in the sense that it suggests
just what 1 evel of education has a decisive influence on the size of the gap.
And since i t is our initial premise that gaps in level of education between men-
tal workers and physical workers should be as small as possible and dradually
~ diminish, th e level o� education of physical wc~rkers proves to have the princi-
pal and decisive influence on reduction of those gaps. They obtain education
- mainly in th e form of general and lower-level vocational and technical training.
Consequently, it is these forms of education that should be developed first.
In a more thorough qualitative analysis we arrive at the following result. In
those repub lics where the level af education of inental workers is higher, the
level of education of physical workers is also higher. Consequently, it is ix~
ttiese republics that the gap between the two types of labor is small. But in
republics wi th a low level of education of inental workers, the level of educa-
tion of phys ical work~rs is still lower. And here the gap is larger.
In those republics where U is high, the value of R is low, since F is also high,
' and where U is low, the value of R is high, since F is s till lower than U.
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It seems at first that instead of ra3sing the level of education of physical
workers, the education of inental workers should rise at least equally. But, as
, the figures show, when the level of education of physical workers rises rela-
tively rapidly, the same indicator for mental workers is rising more slowly.
- This is a normal phenomenon, since th~ level of inental workers cannot depend
solely on a continuous increase in the number of years of study. ~en at the
present time it has reached a sizable value for the higher group (approaching 15
_ years). A further rise would mean a decrease in the actual labor employment of
~ workers in this sphere because of the increased time to obtain education. And
this runs counter both to individual interests and also to social interests.
This contradiction is resolved by the fact that the principle of "training to
last a lifetime" is being replaced for mental workers by the principle "training
throughout one's life" without ~.eaving one's principal ~ob. This principle is
- being applied even now, and it will become still more widespread in future.
Aside from that, as already noted, in those republics where the level of educa-
tion is relatively low for both mental workers and also physical workers, the
differences in the level of their education is substantially greater than in the
republics with relatively high levels of education. Given this situation, it
would be incorrect and impossible to adopt the orientation of "lowering" the
level of inental labor in order to diminish the differences. After all, this
- level has already been attained. Nor, however, can one adopt the orientation
of a substantial rise in the level of education of inental workers, since then
the gap widens sti11 further. Nor would it be sensible to lower the. level of
training of physical workers in those republics where it is the highest, though,
of course, reducing it would diminish differences from one republic to another.
'I'hus the only logical and formal conclusion is that the most sensible thing
would be to speed up the rise of the educational level of ghysical workers
wherever it is lagging far behind.
The analysis made above of differences among the union republics with respect to
the level of education of those employed in the sphere of social labor.k~loes not
~ furnish a full enough explanation of the causes of these differences nor of tre
parameters of their optimization and strategies for achieving that optimization.
An additional analysis in that direction is required, first, to discover the de-
gree of differences in level of education among workers in the same occupations
- within each republic and in those same occupations from one republic to another.
_ The analysis of differences in levels of education shows thgt in the sphere of
physical labor workers employed in the machinebuilding and chemical industries
are in the first place (the highest group) with respect to level of education
(qualifications) in almost all renublics. Metallurgical workers, miners and
workers employed using niaterials-handlinS machines are in the second group.
Workers in light industry ~oin that group as well. In the third group are those
employed in transportation, communications, the building materials industry, and
food industry workers. The fourth group brings together construction workers,
unskilled workers (raznorabochiye), and warehouse workers. The fifth (lowest
- group) consists of workers employed in agriculturef as well as workers in munic-
ipal services and utilities and consumer services.
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