JPRS ID: 9809 USSR REPORT METEORLOGY AND HYDROLOGY NO.1, JANUAY 1981

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• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 48
• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/9809
24 June 1981
USSR Re ort
p
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 1, January 1981
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JPRS L/9809
24 June 198i
USSR REPORT
- METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 1, January 1981
'Pranslation of the Russian-language monthly journal METEOROLOGIXA I
GIDROLOGIYA published in Moscow by Gidrometeoizdat.
CONTENTS
Twenty-Fifth Anni~ersary of Soviet Research in Antarctica 1
Use of Analogues for Evaluating Predictability and Long-Range Forecasting of Mean
Monthly Air Temperature Fields 10
Prediction of Surface Air Humidity 22
- Use of a Complex Analogue in the Physicostatistical Method of Weather Forecasting
for Five-Ten Days 29
- Parameterization of the Surface Layer With a Variable Height 39
Motion of a Particle on a Rotating Sphere 50
r4ethod for Computing the Hea.*. Flux Into the Soil From Temperature 58
Concentration of Mineral Dust in the Atmosphere Over the USSR 66
One Mechanism for the Formation of Macroacale Water Temperature Anomalies in the
Ocean 72
Upwellin.g in the Southern Part of Lake Onega 79
Laboratory Investigations of the Influence of Structures for Protection of
Leningrad Against Inundations on Water Level Itises in the Gulf of Finland...... 85
Depend.ence of. Free Surface Slopes on the Morphometric Characteristics of a
Channel and Floodplain 92
Errors in Measuring Water Discharges by the 'Velocity-Area' Method..........~... 101
_ Influence of Meteorological Conditions on the Quality of Pomegranat~ Fruits..... 111
- a- [III - USSR - 33 S&T FOUOJ
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Parameters of Thermal Stratification of the Planetary Boundary Layer........... 1.16
i:vdel of Formation of a Stationary Zone of Contamination in Water Bodies....... 121
Standard Instruments for Measuring Air Humidity at Negative Temperatures....... 125
Automatic Generation of Programs for the Decoding of Meteorological Summaries.. 135
rxperience in Application of a Complex Work Quality Control System at the
Aviation Meteorological Stations of the Ukrainian Administration of
Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring 141
Review of Book 'Computations of Runoff of Rivers and Intermittent Watercourses'
(Raschety Stoka Rek i Vremennykh Vodotokov), Izd-vo Voronezhskogo Universiteta,
1979, 200 Pages 145
- I:eview of the Monograph 'Multisided Investigations of Reservoirs. No III. The
Mozhayskoye Reservoir' ('Kompleksnyye Issledovaniya Vodokhranilishch. Vyp III.
Mozhayskoye Vodokhranilishche'), edited by V. D. Bykov and K. K. Edelshteyn,
Moscow, Izdatel'stvo MGU, 1979, 399 Pages 148
Plinetj.eth Birthday of Yevgeniya Samoylovna Rubinshteyn 150
Seventy-Fifth Birthday of Vasiliy Alekseyevich Belinskiy 152
Awards of the USSR Al1-Union Exhibition of Achievements in the National Economy 154
Conferences, Meetings and Seminars 159
Notes From Abroad 162
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UDC 999:919.9
TWENTY-FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF SOVIET RESEARCH IN ANTARCTICA
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 5-12
[Unsigned article]
[Text] Abstract: The article reviews the principal re-
sults of the work nf Soviet Antarctic expeditions
durtng the period 1976-1980.
January 1981 marked the 25th aaniversary from the beginaing of the work of Soviet
scientists in Antarctica. The materials of Soviet Antarctic research are published
extensively. The results are reflected in the world's firat ATLAS~A~JTARKTIKI (At-
las of Antarctica), published in the USSR, and in numeroua books and articles of
our polar scientists in different fields of specialization. In this article we
summarize the results of some research work carried out in Aatarctica during the
Tenth Five-Year Plan.
The five-year plan provided for a broad range of scientific research work on the
' Antarctic continent and in the waters of the Antarctic Ocean. Participating in
this work were organizations of seven departmenta: USSR Academy of Sciences, .
- State Committee on Hydrometeorology, USSR Geology Ministry, USSR Main Administra-
tion of Geodesy and Cartography, USSR Ministry of Fiaheries, RSFSR Minist.ry af
Higher and Intermediate Special Education and USSR Health Ministry. All the plann-
_ ned work was implemented and considerable inveatigations were carried out above
the plan. Monographs were written and numerous articles were publiahed in peri~dic
scientific ~ournals.
In a brief article it is imposaible to set forth the reaults of all the investiga-
tions and therefore we will discuss only some of the moet important resulte.
An analysis of long-term aerometeorological obaervations made possible a detailed
examination of the spatial-temporal atructure of the Antarctic atmosphere and
a determinatian of a number of.new characteriatics. They considerably broadened
exiating ideas concerning the regime of the southern polar atmoaphere, which made
it poasible to refine earliex concepts, apply the results in a diagnosis and pre-
diction of atmospheric pl~enomena and use them as initial information for develop-
ing a method for pre~icting weather for three days in advance.
The atlases, reference aida and monographa on aerometeorology of Antarctica, based
on the materials of the Soviet Antarctic Expeditione and foreign expeditiona, are
a reliable basis for developing a theory of climate, methoda for predicting weather
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for different times in advance, and also for the satisfaction, on a high scien-
tific level, of the diversified needs of national economic organizations, and es-
pecially support of Antarctic navigation.
Investigations of general circulation of the atunsphere in Antarctica were based
on data f rom artificial earth satellites. For the first time there was a general-
ization of material on the frequency of recurrence of moving and stagnating cy-
clunes, the frequency of recurrence of anticyclones, the trajectories of cyclones
and the distribution of total cloud cover. These data and the results of their
analysis can be used for differc;nt scientific research studies, and also in the
- solution of practical problems, including those of a prognostic nature.
_ Studies related to investigation of the migration of the circtimpolar vortex, the
slope of its axis and evaluation of the tropospheric sources of vorticity, made
it possible to determine the existence of centers of action of the Antarctic cir-
culation.
An empirical model of air exchange in the system of tne southern polar circulation �
cell was developed. A multisided investigation of the mass of atmospheric air in
dynamic transformations of the vortex indicated that in the course of the year it
varies in a range f2%, which is equal to 2.1�1018 g. Such significant variations of "
mass are not observed over any other region of the earth. An investiga:;ion of iner-
idional circulation, regulating air exchange, indicated that as an average for the
year a balance of masses is attained over Antarctica with an outflow of air from
the continent in the layer earth-600gPa in a quantity 4.4�1013 g/sec and an inflow
of masses in the above-lying layers (600-50gPa) in the sa:ne quantity. It was es-
timated quantitatively that the compensating flow of masses is directed downward.
In this connection, for the first time there was a detailed investigation of the
field of distribution of the velocities of vertical movements over Antarctica in
different layers of the atmosphere, the principal characteristic of which is a suh-
_ sidence of air over Eastern Antarctica and rising over Western Antarctica.
The first estimates of the thermal influence of Antarctica on the atmosphere and
ocean were made. It was fo und that for the lower troposphere of the temperate and
high latitudes of the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector there are negative devtations,
�~ltahereas for the Pacific Ocean sector there are positive deviations.
i`
1�
The use of the developed empirical model of air transfer over Antarctica made it
possible to investigate heat and moisture exchange in the south polar region. The
characteristics of interseasonal differences in atmospheric heat content were as-
certained. For example, over the centraJ. part of Eastern Antarctica the rate of
cooling of the troposphere between January and April is 21�106 J/m2, whereas over
Western Antarctica it is 17�106 J/m2. The greatest rates of heating (between October
and January) attain 30�106 J/m2 and are observed over Western Antarctica. An inves-
tigation of the meridional heat f~lows made it possible to note that in the thin
surface layer there is predominance of transport beyond the limits of the c:ontinent
with a maximum intensity on the sizore:~ of Amundsen and Davis Seas (2.4�106 W/m2).
Regions of extremal hest exchange in the entire thickness of the atmosphere acrass
the Antarctic coast were also defined. This made it possible to draw definite con-
clusions concerning the influence of the Antaretic continent on the clim8te of con-
tiguous regions and indicate the areas through which this influence is exerted. The
region through which heat arrives on the contiinent was ascertained.
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The patterns of forma.tion and change in moisture content taere determined in de-
pendence on different geographical and circulation conditions. On tne whole, Ant-
arctica, constituting about 2.5~ of the earth's total area, annually furnishes
about 6y of the excess moisture which the world ocean aupplies to the atuwsphere.
In connection with the development af the system of global climatic monitoring much
_ work was carried out far or~anizing a program of observations in Antarctica for de-
termining the content of ozone and minor gas admixtures (carbon dioxide, carbon
monoxide, methane, nitrous oxiue) and transparency of the entire thickneas of the
atmosphere in the IR spectral region. Since the aouthern hemisphere, especially its
polar region, at the present time experiences virtually no anthropogenic influence,
a base was established at Mirnyy Observatory for mouitoring the gas and aerosol
compositian of the atmosphere. Special observations at this atation make it pos-
~ sible to evaluate back~round contamination and use these data for evaluating the
stability of climate and investigations of physics of the atmosphere.
Observations of the mentioned components were also carried out on st~ips of the Arc-
tic and Antarr_t~c Research Institute in collaboration with other organizations of
the USSR Academy of Sciences and ~the State Com~ittee on Hydrometeorology (Insti-
tute o~ Physics of the Atmosphere and Institute of Experimental Meteorology). Even
now the res;slte of investigations in combinatia~n with data from earlier apectral
measurements of atmospheric composition make it possible to determine the prin-
cipal characteristics of variability of the carban dioxide content on a global
scale and the nature of variations of nitrogen, methane and other gas componenta.
1'he first attempts havs ~een made at evaluating the stability of climate in the
south polar region. For example, it was possible to detect a tend~ncy to an in-
crease in temperature at the earth's surface and in the lower troposphere during
the :.ast 20 years; at the intracontinental stations the warming was 0.5�~; in the
region of th~ Palmer Peninsula up to 4.0�C; and on the coast of East Antarctica
up to 1.5�C.
Durin~ the course of the Tenth Five-Year Plan a atudy was made of the cllmatic char-
acteristics of formation of th~ temperature and pressure fields in the tropoephere
over Antarctica and the southern hemiaphere as a whole. Allowance for macrotrans-
formatians of the forms of circulation in the method for preparing weather foxe-
casts for three days made poas3ble a better foreseeing of the naturc of change of
standard processes in Antarctica. 7'he chara.cteristics of the wind and temperature
regimes were obtained bq etations, making ~tt possible to prepare three-day forecasts
in more specific detail.
The characteristics of development of atmoapheric processes in the southern hemi-
sphere and Antarctica for long tim~ periods were studied. Group processes of uni-
form development of circulation over a six-m4nth period were obtained. The char-
acteristics of such group procesaee are uaed for preparing forecasts for up to three
months in advance.
The experimental introduction of long-range weather forecasts for the hydrometeor-
ological support of navigation and exgeditionary work in Antaretica was continued.
, The weather forecasts for three days in advance prepared sporadically at the
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weather bureau of the Molodezhnaya aer-ometeorological center are quite reliable
and are employed by a number of users. Beginning in 1977 specialists have prepared
long-range forecasts for the spring and summer (September-December) and autumn
(M~rch-May) periods.
The study of the Antarctic Ocean during the period 1916-1980 was carried out on the
basis of the long-term large-scale program "Polar Experiment-South" (POLE~S-YuG),
providing for the carrying out of a number of in situ experiments in differenfi re-
gions of the Antarctic Ocean. This program was carried out at both the national and
international levels, primarily within the framework of Soviet-American cooperation,
jointly wirh the American program "International Investigations ~f the Antarctic
Ocean." In the course of 1975-1979 specialists carried out in situ experiments
aboard scientific research ships witli the implementation of hydrological aurveys,
placement of buoy stations for prolonged periods with submergible buoys and series
of current meters, and investigation of frontal zones with the use of thermohaline
probes in the regions of Drake Strait, Scotia Sea, in the ocean ar2as between Af-
rica and Antarctica, Australia and Antarctica.
As a result of im~lementation of the "POLEKS-YuG" program, on the basis of instru- ~
mental measurements it was possible to establish the vertical structure of the Ant-
ar~tic Circumpolar Current (ACC), characterized by the penetration of the current
to deep horizons, virtually to the bottom of the ocean, with a monoto3ic decrease
of current velocities from 50-100 cm/sec in the aurfaGe layers to 5-lU cm/sec i:~
the deep layers.
For the first time on the basis of ix~ trumental measurements it was possible to es-
tima.te the tr.ansport of waters in the ACC system, being 120-130 sverdrup in Drake
Strait, 190-200 sverdrup in the region between Africa and Antarctica, and 160-170
sverdrup in the region between Australia and Antarctica.
- The principal scales of temporal variability of currents in the ACC system were
established. The mesoscale variability is characterized by the existence of tidal
(semidiurnal and diurnal) and inertial fluctuations with periods from 13 to 16
h~urs .
Fluctuations with periods of 5-6 days were detected in the synoptic region of the
spectrum: These represent barotropic ~aaves arising as a result of the paesage of
macroscale pressure formations over the Aatarctic Ocean; these waves are propagated
to great depths. Most of the synoptic variability is accounted for by fluctuations
with periods of about 14 days and more than 30 days. The appearance of these fluc-
tuations is associated with the influence of long-period tides, but primarily with
the origin of frontal eddies forming in the ACC zone as a result of baroclinic in-
stability. Data fi~om instrumental observations were used in establishing the prin-
cipal parameters of frontal eddi~s in different regions of the Antarctic Ocean.
~ On the basis of long series of observatinns of currents it was possible to evaluate
_ ehe scales of seasonal (semiannual and annual) fluctuations in the velocity in the
ACC system.
Detai.led surveys in the region of the polar frontal zone with the use of thermo-
haline probes made it possible to establish the boundaries of the polar frontal
zone from the characterization of the vertical distribution of temperature and
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salinity, investigate the vertical structure of th~ polar frontal zons and es-
tablish the quasistationary character of ite position.
Due to the carrying out of aerological soundinA on ships during the period of in
situ experiments and collection of aerometeorological information from ground
stations surrounding the polygons it was possible to aecertain the principal zones
of influence of the Antarctic Ocean on processes in the atmosphere situated to the
north of the polar frontal zone in the neighborhood of Drake Strait, to the south
of Africa and in the Australia region. Preliminary estimates of heat exchange be-
tween the ocean and the atmosphere were obtained.
In the future provision is b~ing made for carrying out a macroscale~in situ exper-
iment in the Australian-Ne~r Zealand sect4r of the Antaretic Ocean by personnel on
board ships of the Arctic and Antarctic Saientific Research Institute, Far Easteni
Scientific Research Institute and Paeific Ocean Institute of Fiehing and Oceano-
graphy in the southern su~ter of 1980-1981, implementation of the Soviet-American
experiment "POLYN'YA" (Polynia) aboard the scientific expeditionary ship "Mikhail
Somov" in the region of upwelling of waters during the winter-autumn peri.od of
1981, investigation of the zone of inerging of the waters of the Weddell ana Scotia
Seas, and the carrying out of experimenta in energy-active zonea of the Antarctic
Ocean.
One of the directions in scientific research is related directly to atudy of the
influence of the ice regime on navigation in the watere of Antarctica. A result
of these investiga*ione was the publication of an individual voltune of Transactions
of the Soviet Antarctic Expedition LEDOVYYE USLOVIYA PLAVANIYA V VODAKH ANTARKT-
IKA (NAUCHNOYE OBOSNOVANIYE I REKOMENDATSII) (Ice Condi.tions for Navigation in the
Waters of Antarctica (Scientific Basis and Recos~nendations)) and a whole aeriea of
scientific studies. A further development of this theme was the development of
~ studies of the hydrometeorological conditione of navigation, optimum timea and
methods for carrying out loading operations in~the xoadsteads of Antarctic stationa
and allowance for hydrometeorological and ice factors in the planning of navigation.
- The results of this already completed work can be used as a reference aid for navi-
gators, scientific-operational workers, planning and directing agencies of differ-
ent ministries and departments implementing voyagea in Antarctic waters. A note-
worttiy result of the investigation carried out is the creation of the ATLAS LEDO-
VYKH KART (Atlas of Ice Maps), which at the present time is being prepared for pub-
lication. It contains 60 maps which show the principal features and characteristics
of the ice regime of Antarctica during the entire period of the inveatigations of
the Soviet Antarctic Expedition. The Program for Computing the Schedule of Movemant
of Ships of the Soviet Antarctic Expedition on an Electronic Computer is also to
find practical application in the planning of activity of the Soviet Antarctic Ex-
~ pedition. The results of investigations in this scientific direction immediately
found practical application in the form of consultations, responsea to requesta,
dispatch of cartographic and other material in accordance with the continuing needs
of the Soviet Antarctic Expedition, USSR Ministry of Fisheries and other organiza-
tions and departments whose activity is related to voyages to Antarctica.
- Tlie study of the glacial cover of Antarctica as the principal component of the Ant-
arctic landscape was carried out primarily within the framework of the Internation-
- al Antarctic Glaciological Project. Practical work was also carried out in the
_ field of engineering glaciology. The latest research methoda were used, with em-
ployment of mc?dern technical equipment.
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On the basis of data from large-scale radar measL'.:ments of thickness of the
glacial cover it was possible to compile maps of the relief of the bed beneath
the ice and the thickness of the glacial cover and on their basi~, for the
first time with sufficient reliability, it was possible to determine the volume
of ice in the glacier: 24.9�106 km3.
The development of inethods and equipment for the electrothermal drilling of ice,
by means of which about 5 km of boreholes were drilled in the glacial cover with
the continuous removal of the ice core, as well as improvement in geophysical and
radiochemica]_ methods for studying boreholes and the ice samples extracted from
them, created the prerequisites for suecessful development of the method of
paleoclimatic investigations. The first important result of investigations in
this direction was the conclusion that there was a synchronicity of the main cli-
matic boundaries in both of the earth's hemispheres.
Cllacioclimatic investigations of the energy interaction of the ice cover with the
atmosphere had as a result the implementation af a quantitative estimate of the
total loss~es of radiant energy by the glacial cover, annually constituting 3.3� ,
~1022 J and characterizing Antarctica as an extensive region of heat loss in the
global climatic system.
Many years of practical investigations in the field of engineering glaciology
were completed with the formulation of the theoretical principles and implementa-
tion of a complex of ineasures for creating a snow airdrome in Antarctica for
heavy wheeled aircraft. It is characteri2ed as an airdrome on deep snow with a
- "compressible half-space computation scheme" and has no equals in world airdrome
c.onstruction. The construction of this airdrome at the Molodezhnaya Meteorolog-
ical Center and the successful accomplishr~ent of a trial run of an I1-18D air-
craft along the route Moscow-Molodezhnaya-Moscow should facilitate organization
of a modern system for aviation support of a long-term program of scientific in-
vestigations and national economtc interests in Antarctica.
Investigation of the marginal part of the glacial cover, represented by unusual
ice shores along almost the entire extent of the Antarctic continent, made it pos-
sible to clarify the principal patterns of interaction between the glacier and
the ocean and to develop a genetic classification of Antarctic shores. An analy-
sis of materials obtained by the Sovi~t Antarctic Expedition made it po~sible to
detect a tendency to degradation of the glacial cover in the coastal zone, in
particular, in the region of the Molodezhnaya Aviation Meteorological Center and
Mirnyy Observatbry.
The region selected for geological exploration work during the Tenth Five-Year Plan
was the Weddell Sea region, characterized by an extensive shelf (about 1.2 mil-
~ lion square kilometers), information on whose geological structure was completely
lacking. In this region the participants of the Soviet Antarctic Expedition carried
out an aeromagnetic survey over an area of almost 1 million square kilometers, a
gravimetric survey over an area of 235,000 square kilometers which involved air-
craft landings on the snow surface, experimental-methodological seismic investiga-
tions, radar measurements of thickness of the glacial cover from the air, and also
reconnaissance geological investigations in the m~untains bordering on the Weddell
Sea.
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As a result of the investigations which.were made the following facts were estab-
lished:
. 1. 'I'he studied area, in its extent exceeding the shelf of the North Sea, is a com-
ponent part of a flajor sedimentation ~iasin. Within its limita the thickness of the
sedimentary cover averages 7-10 km, in the deepest depressions of the bgsement at-
taining 12-15 km or more;
2. The hasement of the studied part of the Weddell Sea basin consists primarily o~
Archean crystalline rocks locally covered by Lower Proterozoic epicraton complexe~;
3. In the thick sedimentary cover there ia hypothetically a predominance of Late
~ Mesozoic-Early ~enozoic, primarily molasse formations; .
4. In the first approximation it was poasible to detect regional structures of the
sedimentary cover potentially promising for petroletan and gas;
5. It was possibl~ to establi:sh an intraplat�orm nature of all folded systems in
the southeastern part of the mountainous margins of the Weddell Sea ah~lf and it
was found that this region belonge to the periphery of the Antarctic craton; a
study was made of the structure and peculiarities of evolution of the Precambrian
zone of folding, with respect to a number of characterietics comparable with
s tructures of the greenstone zones type.
The special ~tudies "Deep Structure of Mac Robcrtaon Land and Princess Elizabeth
- Land (Eastern Antarctica)~" and "Metamorphic and Magmatic Complexes of W~stern Ant-
arctica," completed at the beginning of the five-year plan, revealed the largeat
continental rift zone in Eastern Antarctica and charaeterized ita deep structure;
a new scheme of evolution of the processes of inetamorphiem and granitization dur-
ing the formation of the crystalline basement of Antarctica was created; the prin-
cipal stages in the endogenous acCivity and granite fo~cmation in different geotec-
tonic provinces of the continent were defined.
Three special maps of.Antarctica were published during the Tenth Five-Year Plan:
geologi~al (1:5,000,000), metamorphic f~rmations ,(1:5,00U,000) and tectonic
(1:10,000,000). Such a aexies of maps was compiled for the first time in the his-
tory of geol.ogical study of Antarctica. The series hae received a high evaluation
~ fram the international scientific coaanunity~ and tlte Commission on the Geological
Map of the World, which adopted a reaolution to prepare on the basis of the Soviet
- publication a series of similar maps for isauance under the aegis of the com-
I mission. This work conaiderably contrifiuted to strengthening of USSR priority
in the study of Antarctica.
A~ependence of the probability of appearance of the sporadic E layer in the polar
regions on the parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ~was diacover-
ed and investigated in detail. On the basis of this dependence it was possible to
develop a method for deter~ining the aign of the vertical and azimuthal components
of the IMF using data from vertical sounding of the ionoaphere at the polar sta-
tion Vostok. This method makes it possible to ascertain the IMF parameters in all
- seasons with an identical effectiveness. At the preaent timc~ this method is un-
dergoing practical checking. These same daCa ma.de it posaible to advance a new
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hypothesis concerning thQ nature of the sporadic E layer in the polar caps, and
also a hypothesis that the daytime cusp in the southern hemisphere is situated
cloBer to the pole than in the northern hemisphere.
Considerable geoma.gnetic investigations were carried out in collaboration with
the Insti~tute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
, within the framework of the "Antarctic Polygon" pro~ect. New information was ob-
tained on the position and intensity of auroral electrojets with different levels
of magnetic activity and the degree of geoeffectiveness of IMP components was
evaluated. Specialists have developed and are submitting to practical testing a
method for the supershort-range (1~1.5 hours) forecasting of geomagnetic activ-
ity for 15-minute sums of the vector of magnetic disturbances using observational
data for Vostok station.
. The scientific-pract~cal principles for creating a broad netwark of radio paths
for slant sounding of the ionosphere in Antarctica have been formulated. The
f~rst stage of this plan is being carried out: data are being collected on the
radio link Bellinsgauzen Island - Molodezhnaya with an extent of more than 4,000
km, situated alternately first in the main ionospheric gap and then in the zone
of auroral abso rption.
The collection of materials and the analysis of these data on the transcontinen-
tal path Moscow-Molodezhnaya have continued.
A unique experiment was carried out for measuring the angles of arrival of radio ~
~~aves (in the vertical and horizontal planes) of one of the transmitters situated
in the territory of the USSR.
During the Tenth Five-Year Plan scientific research work continued on study of
man~s adaptation in different regions of Antarctiea. The work was carried out for
the most part by the scientific speiialists of the Siberian Division, USSR Academy
of Medical Sciences (Now sibirsk), the Scientific Research Institute of Experimen-
tal Medicine, USSR Academy of Medical Sciences, the Scientific Research Institute
of Influenza !Leningrad) and other medical institutians. In addition to scientific
specialists, the doctors of the expedition participated in these investigations.
Definite work in this field was carried out by scientific specialists of the Polar
Medicine Laboratory, Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute.
A number of monographs and more than 200 articles were published as a result of
the joint investigations. These studies give materials characterizing the pecul-
iarities of man's adaptation to extremal environmental conditions. Consider3ble
attentiun was devoted to the health of the winterers, the characteristics of the
course of diseases of pol.ar specialists and the organization of inedical-sanitary
~upport of antarctic expeditions.
A number of instructions and recommendations were developed and introduced into
the work practice of the Soviet Antaretic Expedition on the basis of the results
of scientific investigations of the polar medicine laboratory of the Arctic and
Antarctic Scientific Research Institute in collaboration with other scientific
research institutes.
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- The complex of scientific Yesearch studies and prophylactic measures carried
out led to a decrease in the incidence of disease, accompanied by a temporary
l.oss of work capability among the participants of the Soviet Antarctic Expedi~
tion. There has been a systematic reduci:ion in the number of persons returning
from Antarctica due to medical indications.
The basis for the material-technical support of expeditionary work during this
five-year plan was already laid in earlier years, but for successful implement-
ation of the formulated problems it was necessaiy to"take additional measures.
The new scientific research ship "Mikhail Somov," replacing the diesel-electric
"Ob'," had entered service by the beginning of tne five-year plan and was sent
on its first antarctic voyage. Major work was undertaken for reconstructing Mir-
nyy Observatory, Vostok station, Bellinsgauzen and Novolazarevska.ya. There was a
considerable augmentation of the number of surface transport vehicles, includin~
new "Khar'kovchanka-2" vehicles. Finally, prolonged experimental work on crea-
tion of an airdrome on the glacier surface for heavy aircraft at Molodezhnaya
was crowned with success and in the stunmer of 1979-1980 the first flight was
made from Moscow to Molodezhnaya. The new, seventh, permanently opsrating sta-
tion Russkaya in Western Antarctica was opened on 9 March 1980. The temporary
station Druzhnaya was establiahed early in the five-year plan on the shores o~
- the Weddell Sea for supporting seasonal investigations in thie region. Scien~
tific equipment and instrumentation were considerably aupplemented and renewed.
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UDC 551.509.(314+323+335)
USE OF ANALOGUES FOR EVALUATING PREDICTABILITY AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF MEAN
MONTfiLY AIR TEMPERATURE FIELDS
i~loscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 13-22
[Article by G. V. Gruza, professor, and E. Ya. Ran'kova, candidate of physical and
mathematical sciences, All-Union Scientific Research Institute of Hydrometeorolog-
ical Inforniation-World Data Center, manuscript submitted 17 Jun 80]
[TextJ Abstract: Different meteorological forecasting
algorithms based on use of fihe analogue prin-
ciple are examined. The advantages of use of
the one "best" analogue and groups of analogues
are compared. The limits of predictability of
meteorological processes are evaluated. It is
shown that the conditions for long-range fore-
casting in the northern hemisphere are now de-
teriorating due to the increase in climatic
variability and the anomalous degree of the mean
monthly temperature field. Algorithms for adap-
tive forecasting on the basis of a group of an-
alogues with a variable range of predictors and
optimization of i:orecasting using analogues are
discussed.
Ttie method for forecasting weather by the use of analogues is widely used in re-
search and in practi~al work and also in pure (explicit) form as a component
- (latent) part of the ov~rwhelming majority of synoptic (classification, use of
experience, etc.) and statistical pro cedures.
The f undamental ideas in the field of application of analogues of ineteorological
fields were unquestionably developed by N. A. Bagrov [1-3]. A number of interest-
ing results and proposals are also given in [4, 5, 13].
The method for use of analogues in monthly weather forecasts [12] assumes choice
of the one best analogue for forecasting. The choice of only "computer" analogues
is accomplished using quantitative criteria. The combining of "computer" and "sub-
jective" analogues of different meteorological ob~ects is accomplished by the
weatherman "visually," although a series of recommendations have also been for-
mulated for this procedure.
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In order to predict using analogues, generally speaking, it is possible to use
an algorithm proposed in [10], which is a variant of the maximum similarity me*h-
od or the so-called on2 best ~nalogue method. Later a considerably more general
prediction sche~e was developed on the basis of application of the similarity prin-
ciple, using the group analogues method [6, 8]. The conditions for use of this
scheme were as close as possible to the real conditions of prognostic practice.
ror example, it takes into account, in particular, that usually use is made of
not one, but a group of archives of ineteorological objects of different types (fo4
example, the fields of temperature, pressure and precipitation anomalies, cata-
- logues of types of processes, etc.). In addition, provision is made for the pos-
sibility of using not one analogue, but a group of analogue3. On the one hand,
this can iaiprove the quality of the forecasta, and on the other hand it can en-
sure a changeover to forecasts in stochastic form; a categorical forecast is also
possible, by which in this case is meant the value of the predictant (with a
weighting f unction iiependent on the level of similarity) averaged for the group of
analogues. We note at this point that all the empirical results presented in this
study were obtained within the framework of use of precisely this numerical model.
Now we will examine some general problems in use of the analogues method in the
problems related to long-range meteorological fo recasting. One of these problems
is an evaluation of the predictability of ineteorological procesaee.
~ The predictability problem is very timely for meteorologiste and it ia not without
reason that it has been so intenaively inveatigated over the course of the last
20 years (a review of atudies up to 1974 can be found in [11]).
It seems exY.remely desirable to break this problem down into two: the p~obZem of
internal predictability of the atmoaphere and special predictability, determined
by the possibilities of specific prognoetic echemea at a given level of complete-
ness and accuracy of information on the initial state [9]. ~
In [7J we refined the basic definitions and introduced ~ome quantitative character-
istics, including special predictability by the analoguea method. We will recall
the principal points.
Assume that Yt is the predicted procese. Without limitations on universality we
will consider it as Yg, that ie, with a time interval of I year (as if all its
states related to a fixed calendar time, season or the year as a whole). Aseume
that D(Yg~, Yg) is a measure of the difference (metrics), which can aerve as an
evaluation of the erroneousness of the categorical forecast Yg w:~en the atate Yg~
has been realized. We will examine evaluations of "forecasts by the analogue
method" when the analogues to the predictant are selected. Such evaluations cor-
respond to an ideal scheme (method) for selecting the analogues when the beat
analogues in predictant space Y correspond to the best analogues in predictor
space X. These evaluations can be used ae predictability indices.
As the initial success level for a comparative evaluation of forecasts we intro-
duce evaluations of the random analogue method when in the role of an analogue use
is made of one record of the process randomly selected from the archives of ob-
servations. Naturally, for these purposes it ie also possible to use evaluations
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of a clima.tic forecast when statistical (long-term) means (climatic norma) are
used as an analogue and the forecast corresponding to it. Then for the current
Process Yg~ the quantitative characteristics of individual predictability of a
specific process will be:
for the one best analogue method - ~ ~
Mie~ (D(Ygo, Yg)) - min {D ( rso~ Yr~) ~
_ for a random analogue Ego (D(yga~ Ygj);
for a group of analogues n(Ygp, EY~
Here and in the text which follows the letter E denotes the averaging operator
and the superscript (if there is one) indicates the region of applicability of
the operator; Yg denotes the analogue to the process Yg0 and EYg~ is the mean
state of the predictant for the sample of analogues. _
If these evaluations are no~ avera~ed for g~, that is, from the set of all pos-
sible states of the predictant, alternately regarding them as the predictable
process, the resulting evaluations
- - _ . _ .
C 4^ M i A( DO so, Yg) ),.E~"g ( D( Yeo, Y8) Eg~ D( YP~~, E Y,�B
will be the quantitative characteristics of the special predictability of the
mentioned three methods for prediction by the analogues method respectively.
- , f~4 j a~ ~
1do
B~ 105
64 - . . ~
~so 6~ 6l _
>as 199
~
no ~n
, ,
~ 1900 9970 1940 9960 1SOB 1920 1940 9960
. ~ ~
Iig. 1. Evaluations of individual predictability of air temperature fields over
the northern hemisphere in January (I) and July (~III):
a~ .~iie l~~~~~8 (Wg 1~), 6J Eg (O~i~g~ ( Wo T)).
Figure 1 shows the variation of evaluations of individual predictability of the
l~est and random analogue methods for the air temperature fields over the northern
tiemisphere (35-70�N). Here the metrics used was Euclidean distance (mean aquare
difference D~1~), whereas the temperature fields were represented by normalized
W8T anomalies (deviations from the mean long-term value related to the standard
deviation at the points). ~
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In this specific case the measure
-D(Ygo, Ys) = Dsar(mrT )
' can be interpreted as the relative (normalized for 0') ~uadratic difference ~ of
the temperature fields, averaged for the field, or as J Q, uzher~ Q is a parameter
widely known in meteorology, used, in particular, ae an evaluation of the quality
:~f long-range �orecasts of ineteorological fielda [3]. Evidently, it would be in-
teresting to cite aimilar results also for the second parameter /o (similarity of
fields with respect to the geographical distribution of the sign of the anomalies),
so popular among meteorologiste. However, this parameter ia very senaitive to
evaluations of the "norms," as a result of which it is not used in this study (in
this study in computing the normalized anomalies we used the mean long-term anom-
aliea recommended for the WMa' for the.CLINO period 1931-1960, which as an average
f.or the hemisphere are characterized by a substantial p~o~itive displacement of the
entire series relative to the means).
' y a~ ~ ~
J ~ s ~
3
1
- p
1 O,S
s a~ 6) .
y ~
3 . 2
2 1
1900 1920 1990 1~80 1900 ~9Y0 1940 1960
Fig. 2. Characteristics of anomalous character of the temperature field over the
northern hemisphere in Janua.ry and July (I and VII reapectively):
a) YE?>. 6~ Y~
c~r)~.
Figure 1 shows that evaluations of individual predictability change substantially
- from year to year and during recent decades the forecasting conditions for the
hemisphere in general deteriorated, especially in summer: both evaluationa of in-
dividual predictability are characterized by a aignificant ascending trend (the
Ligure shows approximations of the trend by a cubic polynomial by the least
squares method). As a comparison, Figure 2 shows eimilar curves for the quadratic
temperature anomaly, averaged for a hemisphere
. 1~E4
l~
V J'
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and the averaged horizontal gradient of the field of anomalies
- - -
~r V~T)9 = ~EW^ ~r~ VB7~+ t ~ ~T) .
Table 1
- Correlation Coefficients Between Characteristics of Temperature Regime in the
Northern Hemiephere in January (Over Diagonal) and July (Under Diagonal)
I - ~ - ~ ^
Temperature I e ~ ~ L ;
re~ime cnar- _ ' = ~~T � ~
acteristics ' q ~ ~ w ~ ~y
+ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
EgL~~~WgT 0~~"` 0,90'""' --0,16 0,12 0,91'� 0,T8��
n1agD~1~l~8T 0,55'* 1,00 0,24' -0,23� 0,17 0,37�� 0,13
?~ttgD~~~WaT 0,90*� 0,48"� ],00 --0,13 0,15 0,83'� 0,78� -
E'~'T -0,14 -0,33� -0,18* 1,00 -0,78�' -0,07 -0,09
~rE''~'(TT)= 0~03 0~03 -0~03 -0,12 1~00 0~13 0~13 '
1'~E*"( VgT}= 0,91�+ 0,47'" 0,85'� -0,11 0,18' 1,00 0,81'�
1 E'~(T 1/8T): 0,83~� 0,20� I 0,75"' -0,00 0,06 0,~6" 1,00
Idotes. 1. The asterisks denote the significant correlation coefficients with a sig-
nificance level OC = 0.1 and a= 0.001 2. E~~T denotes the mean hemi-
spheric temperature, and ES�a(('T~ is the horizontal temperature gradient aver-
aged for the hemisphere. The other notatians are explained in the text.
The correlation between these characteristics is very high in both January and
July (Table l). Thus, the evaluations of predictability of individual processes
by the random and one best analogue methods are closely related to one another
and to the characteristics of anomalousness of the predicted fields.
It is intereating to compare the cited evaluations with the predictability by the
groups of analogues method, and also to trace the relationship of these evalua-
tions for different predictan.ts. For this purpose an experiment was carried out
for predicting the mean monthly air temperature over the northern hemisphere (35-
70�N) and over the territory of the USSR with zero and month advance times. As a
result, we obtained evaluations of individual predictability for two extremal sea-
sons (for January-Feb ruary and July-August) of the ten-year test period 1967-1976.
The analogues were selected from a scheme of group analogues [6] (henceforth it
will be designated GRAN) directly for the predicted oUject, which was represented
in the archives by the values of the normalized anomalies. As before, use was made
of. Euclidean metrics so that all the evaluations represented below are adequate for
the relative forecasting error (
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~ j~ ~ - i i
~ ~ \ ( `,\,V, ' ~
\ ` 1
? 1 , ~ I
n .1 i
~ i
~ \
~ 1 I I i .
\
/ \ ~ ~
. ' ~
i ~
~I ~ 1 t .
~ \ .
I : ~ ~
i
_ o
N. �
~
~ / ~ \ \ /
/ ~ , _ .
~ *
~ ~x~~ \
~ � ~
/ ~ \
/ ` ` X Z
. 1 1\
` ~ 3
. �
I~ig. 3. Network of points of interaection for prediction of temperature field: 1)
latitude zone 35-70�N, 2) lowland territory of USSR,.3) seven administrative re-
gions of the USSR.
As the predicted ob~ects the following were examined parallely:
1) the temperature field at 144 pointa of a regular grid in the latitude zone 35-
70�N;. .
~ 2) the temperature field at 26 points of grid interaection in the lowland terri-
tory of the USSR; ~
1 3) the values of the normalized temperature anomaliea, averaged for the area of
seven adminisCrative regions in the USSR.
The network for all these territories is shown in Fig. 3.
Evaluations of predictability for January and July are given in Table 2.
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- Table 2
Evaluations of Predictability (Relative Error) of Temperature Field Over Different
Territories of the Northern Hemisphere by Analogue Methods
Forecasting 1967 19G6 1JG9 ~ 1970 1971 ~1972 1~J73 1974 1975 1976 Mean
method I I I
. ~Ja~uary_
35-7U� N -
1 K71{:11ET114eCKN~ J,iS 0,82 1,1~ 1,26 1,09 1,38 1,25 1,2~! 1,17 0,91 1,16
2 Cnyyatieoro ananora 1,17 1,2h 1,67 1,;i2 I,46 1,62 1,51 1,53 1,99 1,33 1,46
3 fi�N wero axaaora 0.83 0,90 1,25 1,18 1,OS I,13 1,17 1,13I1,t1 1,00 1,08
4 a~~nwero aKanora 2,ORi1,82 2,25�2,?~ 2,10 2,29 2,45 2,11 2,22 1,95 2,15
5 rP~~nnoaoro aNanora 0,74~0,67I1,17I1,05 0,94 1,12 1,08 0,98I0,93 0,81 0,96 �
Lowland. territ:ory of tlie USSR ~
Kn~th~arN4ecHini 0,88 1,?~ 2,15 O,G9I1,04 1,86 1,04~0.93 l,l~ 0,94I 1,27
Cn~~va~t+oro aHa.lora 1,15 1,46 2,26 1,04 1,'l6 1,~9 1,31 ~ 1,2'1 1,37 1.22 1,43
JI~~4wero aHaaora Q,4? 0,44 0,75 0,47 0,43 0,7~ 0,63 ~ 0,47 0,3(i 0,56 I 0,53
~)'IIwero aHartora 2,30 2,61 3,69 2,10 2,98 3,30 2,40 2,32 3,16 2,34 2,72
I'p}~nnoeoro aHanora 0,35 0,4i 0,86 0,44 0,49 0,74 0,57f0,46~0,40 0,51I 0,5a
- Seven admir~is:trativE regions of USSR
}~JIIi~13TH9CCI:IIN 0,61 0,77I1,95 0,44 O,Ei6 1.~2 0,74 0,74 0,87 0,68 1,00 ~
C.n~'va~HOro aiia,nora U,S7 U,99 2,03 0,77 0,89 1,li3 0,97 O,~i 1,02 0,92 1,11
.'lyy;;~ero aiia.nora U,30 0,17 U,83 (?,22 0,35 0,�,4 U,39 0,25 0,?a 0,27 U,36
Xyuweru aHanora 1,71 1,83~3,09 1,61 2,30 2,G8 1,84 1,91 2,64 2,21 2,18
I'p}mnoBOro aHaaora 0,21 0,~~0,89 0,17 0,32 0,48 U,37 0,19 0,21 0,22! 0,39
~
July , ~
� 35-70� N
1 Km~~~arn4echi+ii ~l.6SI1,4~'1,IS 1,8U t,3f1 1.7~ 1,72 1.47 1,56
2 Cm~~iaiiHOro aHaAOra ,1,6i 1,hU~1,491,9F~ 1,61 1,92 1,3~i 1,70 1,72
g ~y4wero aNa~ora ~1.31I1,2~~1,171,501,25 1,48 1,~3 1,3~ 1,34
4 Xyltwcro aHanora ~2,13I2, I 1;2,00 2,41 2,08 ~,49 2,25 2.22 2,21
5 fpynnoeoro aHa~~ora .!1,40~1,22i(~,9;11,461,13 1,50 1,44 I 1,24 ~ 1.31
Lowland territory of the USSR
- hnu~aar~~yecs�N 0,861,371,O6i0,940,6i 1,75 1,22 1,45 1,21
_ CnyvaHxoro aHa.nora 1,22 1,54 1,36 1,26';1,10 1,90 1,45 1,75 1,67
nyywero aHanora 0,460.590,6QIU,520,51 0,83 0,67 0,89 U,6~S
a~~niueru aHanora 2,53 ?,15 2,62 2,35 2,08 3,06 2,97 2,83 2,47
I'p~�r,nonoro aHa.aora I0,420,51 0,59~0,45~0,4i O,SI + 0,64 I O,~~J I 0,62
Seven administra~~v~e ~~egions df US~R
K:~~+HaTnvecti?+~i 0,511,030,71I0,540,39 1,04 0,43 1,14 0,7$
Ciyyai~HOro atia.~ora 0,791,140,920,8U0,71 I,1S 0.71 1.32 0,95.
'l~~~iwcro a~ia.iora ~ ~,320,3~0,31~0,270,17 0,47 0,22 0,56 0,33
\}~:twrro aHa^ora 2.00,'1,142,OS1,761,5' ?.U~ 1,5Fi 2.39 1,94
fpynnoBOro aHanora 0,22iU,31 U,32~0,230,1~ U,43 0,19 0,57 0,30
ICEY :
1. Climatic
2. Random analogue
3. Best analogue
4. Worst analogue
5. Group analogue
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. x - . . -
B) c) - .
Q~ a~ b / x x �
3- . "
x
x
~ x~x x x
~ x',~ ~x ~ .x\ 3 [ z
ti % lt p�
2 x~ ~1 ~ ~ M X~
' ~ kl x �
J'�,~ l ~1 9
i ~ -~-:r-~-:~'~- ~ r.y
R��o.o ~Z ~l~y, o f� J /:~;1
~ .,C ~t~Di: ^1 2' ai o 1 q,,s;' o r'~ j..:~y,
.4
~
~ . '
. ~ Sd :o' sa p 7-�: .
~ 4
0
1968 ~ 1912 ~97i 196Q 1972 >97B 1~60 ~9M 1978
Fig. 4. Evaluations of individual predictability (meaa square error of the field
of normalized anoma.lies) of sir temperature in January in latitude zone 35-70�N
(a), for lowland territory of USSR (b) and for territory of seven administrative
regions of USSR (c) : i 1) Mi~ (D ( y~~, }'gl Ea (Ysa~ Yg))+ ~ Ma~..(~ ( Y~o, Y~�~
4~ ~~Ygo. EY~1~ S) D(Yjo, EgY)�
In addition to the three methoda indicated above, they include evaluations for
the "poorest" analogue ; - - - ~ - ` 1
Mago (D (Y~o, Yg) ) = m ~x {D (Yg~, Yg) l
and for a climatic forecast _ � _ _ .
_ - D ~ Y~U~ Ea Y~ . .
The latter was obtained as the mean long-term value EgY for a 76~y?ear period of ob-
servations (1891-1966), from which the choice of analogues was made. In addition,
the table gives evaluations of auccesa of the correaponding methods, averaged for
the 10-year period of the tests, which in confo~ity to the terminology introduced
above corresponds to evaluations of the special predictability for this method.
For greater clarity the results of one of the variants (January) are shown graph-
ically in Fig. 4. The evaluations of special predictability (means for the ten-
year test period) are shown here by horizontal atraight lines.
The presented materials make it possible to draw the following conclusions:
1. As a rule, the group analogue is not worse (and for large territories better)
than the one best analogue. Hence the groups of analoguea method is preferable
' eveu when constructing a categorical forecast.
2. The analogues for global territories (er~en in an ideal case, that is, selected
using an ideally operating system for the selection of analogues) do not enaure
any important advantage over a climatic forecast. Evidently, thia can be
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.
attributed in part to the inadequate archives of observations (only 76 years!),
but in any case it is necessary to reckon with this fact, solving the problem
of long-range forecasting by the analogues method.
3. Smoothing by area made it possible to accompiish a greater compressi~n of in-
formation on the predicted object and favored an increase in the pro gnostic pos-
sibilities of the analogues. For all methods the success 1eve1 became higher, a1-
though the relationship between them virtually did not change.
4. During sum~er, the possibilities of analogues for forecasting are greater than
in the winter, judging f rom the relative error. The reason for this is partially
concealed in the lesser variability of temperature in sinnmer in comparison with
winter.
, .
~ ~
A~qh'ves , dindow Znitial situa.tion `I '
' ~ 0 01 p'p p
~ Weight . ~ ~
~ O O fac~o : ~ ~
~ .
~ ' ' w C of pr dic o
f ~ o c~ ...,x~x~ , I ~
~ ~ _ ~ a
~ ~ ~S~~,n~ o~~naao ~ ~ X
? , c~� ~
~ ~ Archives _ . ~ I
~ ~ p Predi:ction of Y~ wi) X�L
I ~ ' ' f?'J+ E~>+S~J~~1sr,Xsr L ~ -
~ - - - - - - - - - - - J ~
bser oeci Eva~~~~~ft~t~~o� s c~s �
~ y (
~ Genera~~za,~ian o ~luati.ons for set ~X~
_ ~ '
~ f (ss) , I
L~~.~.~.r~ ~.~.~~..~~~~.~..~.~.~.1 . .
Fig. 5. Principal stages in operai:ion of GRAN group analogues scheme.
In general it follows from the cited materials that the analogues method (and es-
pecially the group analogue method) with the availability of an informa.t.ive system
of predictors has a definite advantage in comparison with a climatic forecast and
especially a random forecast. This advantage is especially conspicuous with rejec-
tion of macroscale analogues in general (for example, at the scale of the extra-
tropical zone of the northern hemisphere, as indicated above).
These two conclusions determine the possible ways to bring about further optimiz-
ation of automated use of the analogues method for long-range forecasting pur-
poses.
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The inadequate effectiveness of macroscale analogues in general agrees with the
- hypothesis of "local similarity" and indicates the desirability of sectioning
of macroscale objects of forecasting into smaller segments and the use of dif-
ferent groups of analogues far individual se~ents. This, in turn, means the use
_ of different types of information and possibly different smoothing filters in
the search for analogues for forecasting in different segments. Moreover, taking
into account the substantial variation of individual predic~ability, it can be
assumed that the variation of the used information and filters should be depen-
dent on the characteristics of the current process.
Thus, we arrive at two possible methods for optimizing the parameters of the
scheme in accordance with its two possible quality criteria, characterizing the
individual (current process) prec~ictability and the special (a~ an average for
the test period) predictability.respectively. We will examine them applicable
to the GRAN grou~ analogues scheme [6], the principal stages of which are schem-
atically shown in Fig. 5. Here the WF vector of the weighting factors of differ-
ent factors exerting an effect on the weather (each of which can be regarded as
a multidimensional vector), like the ~reightin~ functions WX for each of them
(playing the role of spatial-temporal filters ensuring the discrimination of
components of a definite scale),are the input parameters of the scheme and are
designated by the user in accordance with the adnp~ted phyaicsl model of the pre-
dicted process. It is understandable that these two parametere to a high degree
determine the posaibility of use of the scheme in each specific case. However,
in most cases, unfortuna.tely, we do not have adequate information for adopting
such a model and therefore precisely the above-mentioned parametere (WF and WX)
are the first to be optimized.
With respect to the optimization criteria, here some refinements are needed. Level
optimization for special predictability, that is, as an average for the test per-
iod, causes no difficulties. This is the usual optimization procedure, ordinarily
employed in the development of all statistical forecasting methods. Here the
quality criterion can be any evaluation of the success of the forecast provided
for in the scheme, averaged for the period of the tests (it ie also the corres-
ponding evaluation of special predictability of the method). With respect to op-
timization for evaluations of individual predictability, it makes sense only in
real time when these evaluationa are unavailable, since the predicted procesa Ygp
is still not observed. In this case as the optimization criteria use should be
- made of indirect a priori evaluationa of the quality of a group of analogues, not
using actual information on the predicted object. Among the evaluatione provided
for in the GRAN echeme these include the following.
First, there are evaluations of the quality of the analoguea in X(in predictor
~pace). Assume that a
~ T3 , ~ ~ 5., NA j
are the dates NA of the selected analogues a~ad
{DX~, ~ ~ 1, NA}
~ are the values of the integral measure of the difference in the syatem of predic-
tors X between the processes corresponding to these dates and the current procesa.
It is understandable that the DX�~ vector ie obtained as the NA vector of the min-
imum values in the time series ~ D(X~, Xg), g~ 1, NG} , where X~ is the current
19 ~
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process, Xg is the process from the archives of observations,.NG is the volume
c~f abservations in the archives. For the two mentioned series
a
~DX~ , j= l, NA~ and {DXg, g= 1, NG~
in the GRAN scheme the statistics of the difference measure are computed, includ-
- ing the mean EDX�~ and EDX and the distribution functions FDX and FDX (condition-
al and unconditional respectively), the difference between which, accqrding to
criteria known in statistics (for example, Student~s t for the means and ~L2 for
the distribution functions) can be used as optimization criteria.
The second group of possible optimization criteria for individual predictability
is related to evaluations of the anticipated quality of the analogues in Y(in
predictant space). These evaluations are evaluations of the statistics of the
- predictant in a sample of analogues (conditional) and in the entire initial sample
(unconditional). Among these the most interesting are the standard deviations SY
and SY and the distribution functions FY�` and FY. As the optimization criteria in
this case it is possible to use '?1 = SY�C/SY, characterizing the relative scatter-
ing of the predictants in the sample of analogues, and ~(,2 for comparison of the
FY�L and FY distributions.
13oth of the mentioned optimization variants are shown in Fig. 5 by dashed blocks.
It is understandable that with optimization for special predictability as the cri-
teria it is also possible to use a priori success evaluation5. In addition, it is
clear that any of these two optimizations is possible only with powerful elec-
tronic computers (at least of the third generation), so that in this stage the
development of the corresponding algorithms can be considered a timely and im-
mediate problem. With respect to the use of the now-existing variant of the
scheme (without optimization) for solution of problems in practical prediction,
its testing has already been carried out for predicting the mean monthly temper-
ature anomalies in the northern hemisphere and their results will be published
in an individual article.
In conclusion we feel it desirable to note that a broad range of parameters in the
prognostic scheme should remain free, affording the researcher broad possibilities
for experimentation in the course of investigations and in the prediction process.
In other words, the scheme should make it possible to carry out work on an elec-
tronic computer in a dialogue regime, clearly delimiting the results obtained ob-
jectively using quantitative methods and their change as a result of variation of
the free parameters at the will of the researcher-forecaster. We will regard the
analogues method as a variety of an adaptive forecasting scheme when adaptation
of the system is accomplished taking into account not only closeness with respect
to time characteristics, but also a far broader set of parameters.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
- 1. Bagrov, N. A., "Similarity of Fields of Meteorological Elements," TRUDY TsIP
(Tr.ansactions of the Central Institute of Forecasts), No 46(73), 1956.
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.
2. Bagrov, N. A., "Similarity Index for Vector Fields," TR~JDY TsIP (Transac-
tions of the Central Institute of Forecasts), No 123, 1963.
3. Bagrov, N. A., "Similarity of Meteorological Fields and Evaluation of Fore-
casts," TRUDY TsIP, No 74, 1959.
4. Bagrov, N. A., Vasyukov, N. A., Zverev, N. I., Ped', D. A., "The Similarity
Principle and its Use in Practical Work," TRUDY TsIP, No 132, 1964.
5. Vasyukov, K. A., Girs, A. A., Zverev, N. I., "Prospects for the Development
of Synoptic Methods for Long=Range Weather Forecasts and Ways to Create a
Unified Complex Method," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrol-
ogy), No 11, 1977.
6. Gruza, G. V., Ran'kova, E. Ya., "Variant of a Scheme for Selecting and Evalu-
ating Group Analogues. on a'Minsk-222' Electronic Computer," TRUDY VNIIGMI-
MTsD (Transactions of the Al1-tTnion Scientific Research Institute of Hydro-
meteorological Information-World Data CentQr), No 35, 1977.
7. Gruza, G. V., Ran'kova, E. Ya., "Evaluation of Difference in Some Meteorolog-
ical Objects and Their Predictability by the Ax~aloguea Method," TRUDY
VNIIGMI-MTsD, No 53, 1977.
8. Gruza, G. V., Ran'kova, E. Ya., Esterle, G. R., "Scheme for Adaptive Statis-
tical Forecasting Using a Group of Aaalogues," TRUDY VNIIGMI-MTsD, No 13,
1976.
9. Gruza, G. V., Reytenbalch, R. G., "Application of the Similarity Principle in
Investigating the Predictabi~lity of Atmospheric Processes aad~in Solution of
the Forecasting Problem," METEOROLOGIYA Z GIDROLOGIYA, No 11, 1973.
10. Gruza, G. V., Soldatkina, A., M., "Principles for Coastructing a rlethod for
Predicting by the Analogues Method," TRUDY SANIGMI (Transactiona of the Cen-
tral Asian Scientific Research Hydrometeorological Institute), No 29(44),
1967.
11. Reytenbakh, R. G., "Predictability of Atmoapheric Proceases (Review)," TRUDY
VNIIGMI-MTsD, No 13, 1976.
12. RUKOVODSTVO PO MESYACHNYM PROGNOZAM POGODY (Manual on Monthly Weather Fore-
casts), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1972.
13. Barnett, T. P., Preisendorfer, R. W., "Multifield Analo~ Prediction of Short-
_ Term Climate Fluctuations Using a Climate State Vector," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol
- 35, No 10, 1978.
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UDC 551.(509.32+571)
PREDICTION OF SURFACE AIR H.?~4IDITY
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81.pp 23-28
[Article by V. N. Zolotorev and B. D. Uspenskiy, professor, Hydrometeorological Sci-
entific Research Center, manuscript submitted 4 Jun 80]
" [Text] Abstract: The article gives an analysis of the ,
dew point tranafer and dew point spread equa-
tions. In accordance with its results, a meth-
od is proposed for computing the latter in
weather diagnosis and prediction. In this meth-
od for computing turbulent moisture exchange
use is made of empirical parameters the am-
plitude of dew point spread and the extent of
lower cloud cover. The results of the computa-
tions for four months give some idea concern-
ing the qualities of the proposed method for
comp uting the dew point sp.read in the surface
layer of the atmosphere.
A prediction of air humidity at different levels in the atmosphere is an important
part of short-range weather forecasting necessary for precomputing precipitation,
the form and extent of cloud cover and other weather phenomena dependent on the
phase transformations of water vapor in the atmosphere.
Studies of a number of authors have been devoted to problems involved in the methods
for predicting humidity. However, the relatively small n~nber of such studies does
not correspond to the role which air humidity plays in atmospheric procQSSes. This
can be judged, in particular, from the small number of articles published during
the last decade and the complexities in forecasts of weather phenomena associated
with changes in the air humidity fields in the atmosphere. The development of ineth-
ods for computing air humidity has been adversely affected by the lesser accuracy
in its measurements in the f ree atmosphere and the absence of regular observations
of the liquid water content of clouds.
As was demonstrated in [3], the use of simplified methods for predicting surface
humidity, based on allowance for advection or inertia, has not led to positive re-
sults. Accordingly, in the method for predicting surface air humidity set forth in
the MANUAL ON SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS [11] and in the METHODOLOGICAL INSTRUCTIONS [8]
the results of theoretical [5] and empirical studies, in particular [1, 2, 4, 6, 7,
9J, have been included.
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The theoretical basis of inethods for computing air humidity at different levels
in th~ atmvsphere is given by the equatione
dq - 1 a k p aq _ m c~)
~tc ~ a~ v= P
a e ~ ~ a e ,cnt ,
. dt - F aZ k P az + ~P c2,
where q is specific humidity, is air density, k is the turbulence coefficient,
m is the mass of water vapor (air) in a unit air volume, condensing (evaporating)
in a unit time, 8 is potential temperature, cp is the specific heat ~apacity of
dry air at a constant pressure, L is the latent heat of condensat3on.
In equation (1) no allowance is made for.the influx of water vapor as a result of
evaporation of moisture from the underlying surface, and in (2) the heat expet~~�
ed in this process, and also the radiant heat influx.
On surface weather charta there are data on temperature and on the dew point, and
un high-altitude charts on temperature and the dew point spread. Accordingly,
instead of q and ~ we introduce into equations (1) and (2) the dew point temper-
ature t and its spread D=(T and air teu~aerature T. With the transformation
of (1) we use the expression ~ - - ~ ~
9 = ~,~`?2 E~~> >
p . (3)
where R/Rn = 0.622, and the Clausius-Clayperon equations, tHe equa~iona of state
_ .
_ an stat cs ~
dE LE ~ P= p RT, dP---gpdz.
dT ~ R�~= (4)
~ In (3) and (4) E is the elasticity of saturated water vapor, P is pressure, R and
Rn are the specific gas constants of dry air and water vapor, g is the accelera-
tion of free falling. After determining the partial derivaCives of x, y, z and t
.
from (3), we find that ~ J ~
~ dq _ 0,622 r L E'd ~ Eg 1
-l- ~
dx + P Kn t~ ~'z ' R~~ (5~
~i
I dq ~ 0,622 L E^ E dP (6)
dt p ( Rn SZ . P dt )
The dew point transfer equation, if the right-hand side is transformed by means
of (S) and if dq/dt is replaced in accordance with (6), will have the form
dt ( dz d: ' R�~~ dP . dP ~ dP
a: +~`taX+v dY~+~;a--;:~~- PL ~at+~uax+yav~ ~
_ c>
n1 ~ +
- az k ds + k 1, RLT 3~~ a:~Z+~R~~i..-. 2R~tl ax
gRn z (~Ii _'mRR~ T~ �
l~L-- ds q PL '
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where u and v are the horizontal components of wind velocity, w is vertical velo-
city.
Irt simplified form equation (7) is given in [13].
Equation (2), taking into account that
_ . .
~ = T iooo = - 8 ~8~
( p ~ ~ 7a- x R~
' ~4)
dE3 9 dT dP P g dT 1
oz ~ T ~ + dz ds - - R1=' R + ds 1' (10)
d A 6" d T ~ x-1 6 dP
dt - T dt x ~ dt ' .
can be given the form _ _ . _ - -
x-1 T dP dP dP
dT d T ~T. _ 1~
. ~c ~"(u dz -4"v oy)+~~�- x. C d~ 'i"u.dz +'v~l
~ (1Z)
dT dk mLRT= '
= d k a= -1- kTP ( i a+ dY 7a ds PcP 9'
where T/~ z, 'Ya is the dry adiabatic temperature gradient, -
c -
;c - ~v ,
_ cv is the specific heat capacity of dry air at a constant volume.
Subtracting (7) from (11), it is possible to find, in general form, the trans-
fer equation for the dew point spread. Terms whose values are 10-102 times small-
er than the other terms have been underlined in (7) and (11).
In the surface layer of the atmosphere, where the term dependent on w is also of
j.nsignificant value, tihe dew point and dew point spread equations will have the
form
dr ~u dx + v ay a k oZ ' (12)
ao ao a~ a afl
_ dt = - (u aX v ay ) + a: k v: ' (13)
Therefore, the local changes in air humidity in the surface layer are caused for
the most part by its horizontal transfer and vertical turbulent moisture exchange.
In synoptic practice use is made of the dew point equation (12) in which the term
a k a~
aZ aZ
is assumed to be equal to the amplitude of the dew point. The amplitude values
for c~ear, semiclear and cloudy weather are found from empirical data obtained
in [1, 5, 6], and in systematized form, given in [8].
Table 1 lists the correlation coefficients giving some idea about the closeness
of the correlation between the amplitudes T, D, ~C and the total cloud cover aver-
aged for 0300 and 1500 hours, expreased in tenths of the lower cloud cover.
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Computations for the European USSR were made using data on synoptic situations
J Eor 1978 at places with weak advection of temperature and air humidity. The num-
l~er of cases in each month did not exceed 70-80. In July 1979 in the Moscow and
Kuybyshev regions there was weather with low wind velocities and therefore 30
c ases were uaed ,i computing the correlation coefficients at each point.
Table 1
Correlated European USSR
parameters Moscow Kuybyshev
February April October July 3uly
AT and N -0.33 -U.69 -0.89 -0.67 -0.062 -0.84
AD and N -0.13 -0.63 -0.78 -0.51 -0.53 -0.72
A,~ and N -0.44 -0.06 -0.09 -~.23 0.17 -0.14
vote. AT, AD and A~ are the amplitudes of temperature, dew point spread and dew
point, N is the mean cloud cover for 0300 and 1500 hours.
It follows from the data in Table 1 that the amplitudes of temperature and dew
~~oint spread are usually in an inverse quite close dependence on the extent of
cloud cover. An exception is the data for February, attributable to the fact that
_ in this month the amplitudes of T and D, the same as the quantity of clouds, var-
ied slightly over the territory. The dependence of the amplitude of dew point on
cloud cover was weak. However, the inerease in r in February can be attributed
to the fact that in winter at low temperatures (-10�C or below) even small
changes in water vapor elasticity are adequate for causing substantial variations
of dew point temperature and its amplitude. In the summer months, however, the
dew point is insensitive to small variations in water vapor elasticity. The r
values for Moscow and Kuybyshev confirm the results obt~ined for the European
USSR and show that the quite close correlation between (AT, N) and (AD, N) is
characterized by stability.
It also follows from the data in Table 1 that the dew point spread equation must
be given preference in computing air humidity in the surface layer of the atmo-
sphere if as the parameters replacing the value
a k dD
aZ ~
use is made, as in the case of dew point temperature, of statistical data on the
amplitudes of the dew point spread and the quantity of clouds.
In the method for computing the dew point temperature in [8], on the basis of
equation (12), for determining its transformational changes use is made of the
mean monthly amplitudes, computed for nonmoving air masses and a small quantity
of clouds. Despite these limitations, they have also come into use in determining
the transformational changes in the moving air. This assumption, not validated
in methodological respects, naturally led to a decrease in the accuracy of com-
putations of surface air humidity.
Introducing into (13) the notation of an individual derivative
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- dD dD dD , BD
d~ vr u ax vy (14)
and integrating the transformed equation in time, we obtain
Dr-Dt=o= ( ~ k dD~ t, (15)
where Dt and Dt=~ are the dew point spreads at the final and initial points of an
air particle trajectory, t is the time interval for which the trajectory was con-
structed, d D
~ aZ k a: ~
is the turbulent exchange value, averaged for the time t, which is approximately
equal to its value at the mid-point of the trajectory.
With u= v= 0 the difference (llt - D=~~ is the local change in the dew point
spr.ead, representing a definite trans~ormationalchange in D during the time t.
As noted, this method was used in the method for computing dew point described
in [8].
in order to apply the method for determining transformational changes, following
from (15), for individual months we prepared maps of the amplitudes of dew point
5pread (AD) on the basis of data from the HANDBOOK ON CLIMATE [12] on the diurnal
vz+riation of relative humidity and air temperature using the psychrometric tables
~10]. The AD values on these maps, equal to the difference between the D values
;it 15U0 and 0300 hours, are the mean 12-hour transformational changes in the dew
i,uint spread. For these same months we constructed maps of total cloud cover,
c~xpressed in tenths of lower cloud cover, characterizing the radiation condi-
tions oE formation of the amplitudes of the dew point spread. In computations us-
~.ng f.ormula (13) the quantity of clouds is used as a parameter making it possible
_ to convert from the mean AD values corresponding to the mean tenths of lower
cloud cover to the amplitudes for the observed cloud cover.
Lquation (13), for computing the D value with advance times of 12, 24 and 36
liours,can be given the following form:
D~2= (Do) i2+k, ~a~) ~s-I-a~� (Ao) i , (16)
~s+= (~o)sa+k, {dD)24i
Dae= (Do) ss+ki (;~;D)38-}-a~� (AG1 i ,
wliere D12, D24, D36 are the D values 12, 24 and 36 hours after the initial time,
~D0~12~ ~D0~24' ~Dp~36 are advective D values, a D= Dend - Dbeg are the advec-
tive changes in D after 12, 24 and 36 hours, taken with the opposite sign, (AD)1
i.s the transformational change in D, read from the map of amplitudes at the mid-
i,oint of a 12-hour segment of the trajectory closest to the point for which D is
computed, a~ = 1.0 with Nact - N~ aN = 0.2(0.3) with Nact ~ N and aN = 1.1(1.5)
with Nact ~ N, Nact is the mean quantity of actual (prognostic) cloud cover for
0300 and 1500 hours at the point for which the (AD)1 value is read, N is mean
monthly lower cloud cover, kl = 0.1. In computations from the initial weather
maps for 1500 hours the aN(AD)1 value in (16) is taken with a minus sign. The
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values of the kl and aN coefficients were found by statistical processing of
- the actual data: The second term in (16) was introduced in order to exclude the
advective contribution from the climatic amplitudes of the dew point spread.
Table
Month aN n I~ D ~ p E
October 0.3; 1.5 60 1.9 0.60 0.60
February 0.3; 1.5 60 1.2 0.60 0.71
April 0.3; 1.5 36 4.5 0.89 0.50
July 0.2; 1.1 65 1.4 ~ 0.89 0.20
Note. aN is a coefficient in (16), n is the number of cases, ,~'D I is the mean ab-
solute error, is an index of coincidence of signs of the computed and actual
D changes, E is the relative error.
Table 2 gives some idea concerning the accuracy in computing D12 using formula
(16) and initial weather maps for 0300 and 1500 hours for July, April 197b, Oc-
tober 1977 and February 1978 in Moscow, Minak, Gor'kiy, Kazan', Vologda and
Khar'kov. It should be noted that in the computations the method for constructing
the trajectories of air~particlea in [11] in all casee was kept regardlesa of the
' errors in diagnosis D12. In this conneation the data in Table 2 give some idea
concerning the possible errors in predicting D12. It follows from Table 2 that
the accuracy in computing D12 is quite high. Oaly the absolute error for April
~aas too high. The mean probable succesa in computing D12 for four monthe, de-
termined in accordance with the instructions on the evaluation of forecaste,
with allowance for the errors adopted in them for air temperature, was 88%, ex-
ceeding the probable success in computations of dew point temperature by the
method given in [8]. Evaluations of individual examples of diagnosis and predic-
tion of the dew point spread usiag formulas (161 with advance times of 12, 24 and
36 hours were close to those cited, somewhat decreasing with an increase in the
advance time.
It follows f rom the materials in this article that in developing methods for pre-
dicting air humidity it is poesible to use the dew point transfer or dew point
spread equations cited above if we limit ouraelves to allowance for the prin-
cipal factors exerting an influence on its use.
In the case of the surface dew point apread the method for the parameterization of.
the value a k~ D
aZ ~
by the iritroduction of empirical data on the amplitude of D and the quantity of
lower clouds into (13) is effectipe. In order to solve the problem of the prac-
tical use of the considered method for computing the dew point apread in local
weather forecasts it is necessary to have more complete data on its probable suc-
cess. Iiowever, it is clearly desirable to develop a numerical variant of predic-
_ tion of D in which the use of more complete initial information is one of the
possible ways to increase its accuracy.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Bachurina, A. A., et al., "Diurnal Variation of Air Humidity in Different Re-
gions of the USSR in the Warm Half-Year," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR (Trang~
actions of the USSR Hydrometeorological Center), No 27, 1968.
Z. Bachurina, A. A., Konyukhova, M. S., "Analysis of Conditions for Change in
Air Humidity in the Surface Atmospheric Layer in Dependence on the State of
the Underlying Surface," TRUDY TsIP (Transactions of the Central Institute of
Forecasts), No 144, 1965.
3. Bachurina, A. A., Konyukhova, M. S., "Results of Probable Success of Different
Methods for Predicting Air Humidity in the Surface Layer of the Atm~osphere,"
TRUDY TsIP, No 144, 1965.
4. Bachurina, A. A., Orlova, Ye. M., "Investigation of the Diurnal Variation of
Temperature and Air Humidity," TRUDY TsIP, No 144, 1965.
5. Berlyand, M. Ye., PREDSKAZANIYE I REGULIROVANIYE TEPLOVOGO REZHIMA PRIZEMNOGO
~ SLOYA ATMOSFERY (Prediction and Regulation of the Heat Regime of the Atmo-
spheric Surface Layer), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1956.
6. Davydov, 0. A., Konyukhova, M. S., "Diurnal Variation of Air Temperature and
Humidity in the Warm Half-Year at Moscow (Bykovo)," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA
SSSR, No 6, 1967.
7. Zavarina, M. V., "Change in the Heat and Moisture Content of an Air Mass M~ow
ing Over a Homogeneous Underlying Surface," TRUDY GGO (Transactions of the
Main Geophysical Observatory), No 48(110), 1954.
- 8. METODICHESKIYE UKAZANIYA PO PROGNOZU PRIZErQiOY TEMPERATURY, VLAZHNOSTI VOZ-
DUKHA I DRUGIKH METEOROLOGICHESKIKH ELEMENTOV (Methodological Instructions
- on rorecastir.g Surface Te~^_r~t~~re, Air Humidity and OthQr Meteorological
Elements), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1970.
9. Minina, L. S., "Influence of the Underlying Surface on Change in the Moisture
Content of Air and Evolution of a Cold Front in Sua~er Over the European USSR,"
TRUDY TsIP, No 60, 1957.
10. PSIKHROMETRICHESKIYE TABLITSY (Psychrometric Tables), Leningrad, Gidrometeo-
izdat, 1965.
11. RUKOVODSTVO PO KRATKOSROCHNYM PROGNOZAM POGODY, Ch. I i II (Manual on Short-
Range Weather Forecasting. Parts I and II), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1964,
1965.
12. SPRAVOCHNIK PO KLIMATU SSSR, VYP. 8, Ch. 2, 4 i 5(Handbook on USSR�Climate,
No 8, Parts 2, 4 and 5), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1964, 1967, 1968.
13. Uspenskiy, B. D., "Quantitative Prediction of Continuous and Shower Precipita-
tion," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 1, 1970.
28
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. UDC 55Z.509(314+3'?
USE OF A COMPLEX ANALOGUE IN THE PHYSICOSTATISTICAL METHOD OF WEATIiER FORECASTING
FOR FIVE-TEN DAYS
Moscow ME~EOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 29-36
[Article by M. N. Fedulova, candidatie of geographical sciences, A. V. Borodina,
candidate of geographical sciences, and A. V. Shuvalov, USSR Hydrometeorological
Scientific Research Center, manuscript submitted 3 Jun 80]
[Text] Abstract: The authors propose the use of a cos~
plex analogue as the initial sample of process-
es in the physicostatiatical method in the pre-
diction of inean temperature for five days and the
H500 Pressure field for the seventh day. The advan-
� tage of the proposed approach in comparison with
the use of standard samples is demonetrated on
the basis of independent materia2. for winter ~five-
day periods. ~
In Soviet weather forecasting practice for intermediate times (3-10 days) the ana-
logues of synoptic processes have come into rather broad use. They are employed in
predictions for natural synoptic periods [14] and are taken into account in fore-
casts for calendar time intervals (3, 5, 10 days).
The use of single analogues is always accompanied by risk, despite the high degree
of their initial siMilarity to the current process jl, 14, 17j. Accordingly, re-
cently methods have appeared for the use of so-called "composite" or "group" ana-
logues. There are different ways to use them. For the prediction of temperature
in most cases this involvea the determination of the mean characteristics from 10-
15 records [5, i~~. It was demonstrated in [SJ that it is desirable to find weight-
_ ed means, each of the terms in which is proportional to the measure of aimilarity
with the initial pressure field. However, the moet rational method for the use of
group analogues for the purpose of predicting circulation and weather for inter-
mediate times is the solution of regression equations within the limits of a
sample consisting of an adequately large number of similar situations [4s 11, 15].
~
In this article we examine the example of the introduction of a composite analogue
into the "synoptic-hydrodynamic-statistical method for predicting temperature for
5 and 10 days and precipitation for 5 days" adopted as the fundamental method in
_ the work of the 10-day forecasts section at the USSR Hydrometeorological Center
29
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and other long-range weather forecasting subdivisions j6]. In the course of de-
velopment and testing it was found that the success of application of this meth-
od to a def inite degree is dependent on the synoptic classification of initial
data.
As is known from [6], computations of temperature anomaly forecasts for a five-day
period from the dependence h -
QR - - Q + L ahR ~'h lTh~ ~ Th, ~ . . ~1~
h=1
are made separately for groups of processes formed on the principle that they be-
long to def inite synoptic types. As the basis use is made of the well-known ob-
jective classification using the Kats circulation indices, according to which ~
each process over the first natural synoptic region belongs to one of the five
forms of circulation "W," "C," "N," "E" or "Zon" [8]. It was demonstrated in [7,
16] that the use of samples of synoptic processes of a definite form of circula-
tion improves the qual~.ty of forecasts of weather elements by 3-10% in comparison
ti~ith the results obtained using an unclassified sample.
_ The mentioned gain in quality can he attributed to the fact that within the classes
formed on the basis of the similarity principle with standard positions the dis-
persion of all the elements (both spatial and for time shifts) is less than the
climatic dispersion and accordingly the regression equations within these classes
must operate better than with a random set of initial data jll]. However, when us-
ing the standard samples "W," "C," "N," "E" and "Zon" the success of computations
in each individual case is dependent on the measure of similarity between the cur-
rent HS00 field and the mean standard field. On a practical basis this similarity
is by no means always satisfactory due to the infinite diversity of synoptic situ-
ations in nature. In many cases the current process is either at the limit of the
zonal and meridional states or the axis of the high-altitude ridge lies between ,
the positions adopted for the circulation forms or the given case simply cannot
lie assigned to the standards established earlier. In practical work, meeting with
difficulties in determining the forms of circulation from p.rognostic H500 charts
for 48 hours [18], the team of forecasters has been forced to have recourse to
parallel computations in several variants. Then there is an inevitable subjective
compil.ation of the collected (soMetimes contradictory) results.
There is no need to explain that such work is carried out by a group of highly
qualif ied specialists and requires high expenditures of every type.
This investigation was undertaken for the purpose of finding a method for improv-
ing tlie quality of the computed forecasts by the method in [6~ and objectivization
of the prognostic procedure.
Tlte working hypothesis was the assumption of a superiority of dynamic initial
samples formed on the principle of similarizy to the current pr~cess in compar-
ison with earlier prepared reference series similar to the mean standard ser-
ies (see figure). The proposed approach ensures a position of the current process
at the center of the group of synoptic situations related to it, the further de-
velopment of which must conform to definite patterns. Such a position should lead
to the most complete realization of the advantages inherent in samples obtained
by the analogue principle [11].
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~ 3aM Zon ~
~
~ .
~ 3od,~
~ ~ \ Zon / / /
n'
~
4 ~p ~ E ~,s
C ~
I
u ~ I BE
Fig. 1. Example of initial sample of processes by analogy with current process (II),
occupying an intermediate position between "C," "E" and "Zon."
In checking this assumption use was made of a program making possible constant re-
vision ~f the initial information for all the diagnostic and prognostic computa-
tions by the method in [6J. The experiment wae carried out uaing material on mean
air temperature for a five-day period in winter fr~m 1959 through 1978 (360 five-
day periods). The choice of the aimilarity test was an independent problem. At the
present time �~everal objective pressure field eimilarity criteria are known. In
this connection, it is necessary, in particular, to note the studies of N. A. Bag-
rov [lJ, K. A. Vasyukov, N. I. Zverev, D. A. Ped' [3, 12], G. D. Kudashkin and
M. I. Yudin [10], Kh. Kh. Rafailova [13], G. V. Gruza and his colleagues [4, 5,
15].
In selecting the measure of similarity (difference) in synoptic processee the auth-
ors of this article have chosen the G. D. Kudashk~i criteria [10] as corresponding
most fu11y to the characteristics of the prediction method [6J, based on expansion
of the predictor fields in natural orthogonal functiona [2]. .
The indices of the degree of similarity of ineteorological fields are selected on
the basis of general stochastic considerationa taking into account, in particular,
tlie need for discriminating important information on the compared fielda and on
the possibility of maximum reduction of its volume. The method of natural ortho-
gonal components has definite possibilities in thie direction. Uaing this method
the b.asic information is represented by a relatively small number of the flrat
expansion coefficients [2]. A comparison of these coefficients is more convenient
than a comparison of the meteorological field valuea themselves. As a test of the
similarity of ineteorological fielda it ia possible to adopt the M parameter pro-
posed in [lOJ, determined by the expression
~ h
M= ~~(Tj,rl-Tj.r,)', ~2~
~_t
where T~~tl, T~ t2 are the j-th coefficients of expansion of the field in natura].
orthogonal func~ions at the times tl and t2. The lesser the M value, the great-
er is the degree of similarity of the compared fields.
31
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In a one-dimensional case expression (2) has certain conveniences in the practical
reallzation of the choice of analogues using an electronic computer.
In this article the M parameter is used in determining the similarity of the geo-
potentlal fields HS~p. The initial materials used were the geopotential fields
etipulated at 36 points in a territory bounded by 10�W, 100�E, 75 and 35�N; the
points were selected at the points of intersection of a geographic grid with an
interval of 10� in longitude and 20� in Iatitude.
The natural orthogonal functions xj~i were computed for a sample of fields includ-
ing 360 cases for the three winter months from 1959 through 1978 (the middle days
of the calendar five-day periods were selected). In expression (2) h was assumed
equal to 5.
After the expansion operation the analogues were organized in accordance with the
\ ~ + .
- . - ~ ~e ~,e
~ ~ ' j . ~o ~ .
i _ ` ~ N .
~ ' ' J , .
Fig. 1. Distribution of water temperature Fig. 2. Vertical distribution of water
at 1-m horizon during the upwelling of 22 temperature in sectiona I and II inter-
July 1979. secting upwelling front.
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Deep-water reversing thermometers were used for evaluating the distribution of
temperature with depth.
tn the course of the three days preceding the survey and at the time it was carr-
ied out there was a predominance of a SSW ~aind with a velocity 7-8 m/sec. The wind
direction coincided with the general direction of the shoreline in this region.
Such a wind caused a transport of surface waters from the western shore into the
open part of the lake and the upwelling of cold deep waters with a temperature
af less than 8�C at the surface along the shore.
It follows from an analysis of the horizontal distribution of temperature (Fig. 1)
that the isotherm 8�C, showing the lower boundary of the thermocline, withdrew
from the shore for a distance of 4 km, whereas the isotherm 15�C, characterizing
the temperature of the surface layer prior to the action of the wind, withdrew
from it 7-9 km. In the southwest, shallower part of the region with depths not
exceeding 10 m there were waters with a temperature 11-12�C, rising from the bot-
tom. In the central and eastern parts of the region there was concentration of
waters with a temperature 15-16�C with a mean horizontal gradient 0.07-0.08�C/km.
In the frontal zone it was approximately 20 times greater (1.5-2.0�C/km).
- Figure 2 shows the temperature distribution in the vertical plane for two sections
intersecting the upwelling front.
Data on the vertical distribution of temperature, obtained for a small number of
stations, were supplemented by materials on the direct registry of its spatial
change accomplished during towing. This made it possible to refine the pattern
of temperature distribution in the surface layer and more precisely define the
frontal zone.
It c~as established in the course of the investigations that simultaneously with
the upwelling observed in the western part of the water area, in its eastern re-
gion during presence of a wind directed parallel to the shore, there was~a subsid-
ence of the warm surface waters in depth, that is, the downwellinQ phenomenon oc-
curs. The thermocline, characterized by the isotherms 12-13�C, sui~sides to a depth
of 12-14 m(instead of 4-5 m in an undisturbed state), whereas the waters with a
temperature of 15�C are at a depth up to 10 m.
The upwelling phenomenon mentioned above was propagated in the considered region
to the entire thickness of the waters to a maximum depth in this part of the
water area of 28 m(Fig. 2). For example, the isotherm 6�C, characterizing bottom
waters in section I, assumed a slope as a result of upwelling of waters in the
western part and subsidence in the eastern part, equal to 12 m at a distance of 9
km, that is, on the average 1.3 m/km.
The emergence of the thermocline at the lake surface is accompanied by the forma-
tion of an exceedingly sharp thermal, and therefore density front. The zone with
maximum temperature contrasts, attaining 5�C at a distance of 5-6 km from the
shore in section II, has a width of about 1 km. The thermocline creating it has
a slope equal to 0.007 or 7 m/km. It should be noted that the temperature ~
82
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gradient is not identical in the entire aection of the front and in one of the
- sectors is 1�C per 80 m. Such temperature drops undoubtedly cause a strong gradi-
ent current directed in the plane of the figure. Unfortunately, the absence of
data on currents in thie region does not make it poasible to evaluate its inten~
sity.
It can be postulated that a stable NNE wind, para11e1 to the shoreline in this re-
~ion, will cause inverse phenomena, that is, will be accompanied by an upwelling
on the eastern and a downwelling on the western side of the water body.
Thus, it follows from the above that a stab le SSW wind, parallel to the shoreline
in the southern part of Lake Onega, causes an upwelling phenomenon in the western
part of the region and a downwelling in the eastern part of Che region. These
phenomena occupy the entire water layer, propagating to a depth of 28 m. The
emergence of the thex~mocline at the surface causes the formation of a therma.l
front with a temperature gradient up to 5�C/km and a distance from the shore of
S-7 km.
BIBLIOGRAPIiY
1. Vereshchagin, G. Yu., "Some Data on the Regime of Deep Waters in Lake Baykal
in the Marituy Region," TRUDY KOM. PO IZUCHEDTIYU OZERA BAYKAL (Transactiona
of the Cowmission on Study of Lake Baykal), Vol 2, Leningrad, 1927.
2. Krokhin, Ye. M., "Wind-Induced Surges in Lake Dal~nyy," SEYSHI NA OZERAKH,
POVERKHNOSTNYYE I VNUTRENNIYE. TRUDY LIMNOL. IN-TA SO AN SSSR (Transactions
of the Limnological Institute Siberian Department USSR Academy of Sciences),
Leningr.ad, Nauka, 1970.
3. Shuleykin, V. V., FIZIKA MORYA (Sea Physics), Moacow, Nauka, 1968.
4. Blanton, J. 0., "Nearshore Lake Currents Measured During Upwelling and Down-
welling of the Th.ermocline in Lake Ontario," J. PHYS. OCEANOGR., Vol 5, 1975.
5. Blanton, J. 0., Winklhofer, A. R., "Circulation of Hypolimnion Water in the
Central Basin of Lake Erie," PROC. 14th CONF. GREAT LAKES RESEARCH, Intern.
Ass. Great La.kes Res., 1971.
6. Csanady, G. T., "On the Equilibrium Shape of the Thermocline in a Shore Zone,"
J. PHYS. OCEANOGR., Vol 1, 1971. '
7. Defant, A., "Theoretische Uberlegungen zum Phanomen dea Windstaus wnd des
Auftriebs an ozeanischen Kusten," DT. HYDROGRAF. Z., B. 5, 1952.
8. Hidaka, K., "A Contribution to the Theo ry of Upwel.ling and Coastal Currente,"
TRANS. AMER. GEOPHYS. UNION, Vol 35, No 3, 1954.
9. Niebauer, H. J., Green, T., Ragotzkie, R. A., "Coastal Upwelling/Downwelling
Cycles in Southern Lake Superior," J. PHYS. OCEANOGR., Vol 7, 1977.
83
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10. Ragotzkie, R. A., "Vertical Motions Along the North Shore of Lake Superior,"
P ROC. 17th CONF. GREAT I~AKES RES., INTERN. ASS. GREAT LAKES RES., Part I,
1974.
11. Sverdrup, H. ~I., "On the Process of Upwelling," J. MAR. RES., Vol 1, 1938.
84
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UDC 551.465.75:627.514(470.2:~`
LABORATORY INVESTIGATIONS OF THE INFLUENCE OF STRUCTURES FOR PROTECTION OF
LENINGRAD AGAINST INUNDATIONS ON WATER LEVEL RISES IN TFIE GULF OF FINLAND
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 76-81
[Article by V. G. Noskov, candidate of geographical sciences, State Hydrological
Institute, manuscript submitted 16 May 80]
[Text] Abstract: The article givea the results
of inveatigations (with a hydraulic model)
of the influence of struaturea wh3,ch are
being constructed for the protection o~
Leningrad against sea inundationa on storm-
induced level rises in the Gulf of Finland
to the west of the atructurea. The experi-
meats revealed that with th� most unfavor-
able meteorological and hydrological condi-
tions an increase in level risea directly
before the structures along the line Gorak-
aya-Kronshtadt-Lomonosov wi11 be not uare
than 13% (32 cm) in the Northern Gates and
8% (20 cm) in the Southern Gates. With in-
creasing diatance from the etructurea their
- influence lessens and 100 km to the west of
these atructures no influence is detected.
The project for the protection af Leningrad against sea iaundations provideA for
- the construction of protective structures along the liae Gorskaya-Kronshtadt-
Lomonosov [1]. In this connection the need arose for determining their influence
on the magnitude of storm-induced water level riaea in the Gulf of Finland, clar-
ifying how far to the west this influence will be propagated. In the event of a
' subatantial increase in level rises it must be taken into account in calculating
how high the protective structures must be and an evaluation muat be made of the
degree of danger of storm-induced surges when protection has been provided for
the populated places situated on the ahores of the Gulf of Finland to the west of
the structures (Fig. 1).
This problem, together with the uae c: computation methoda, was solved using a
large-scale hydraulic model of the Gulf of Finlaad (Fig. 2), the most important
information on which was given in [4]. Long-wave and aeiche oacillationa, observed
85
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both in nature and in the model under the influence primarily of gravitational
and inertial forces, were modeled with adherence to Froude similarity.
~
~
~
~~~ti~~,N ~ 03eaxu ~ 3cncNOZOOCK I
y �
/ 2~ ~ ~
~ y ~ g ~ ~GecmDnpeuK
B ~ ~ = I
� l! ~bcu,�rie~ri ~y n�x�TnnF~,~uN ~ l'ODCKOB 3 I
y a Ceca~O � 4~e'`�'~ KDOMr~maDm ~ .o
lUrncne~a ~p ~~ONQ �'~o HtOe~OA ty6a v ,
I ~ AoMOnocoe p
~
I
~cme~~ zu
Fig. 1. Plan of fragment of model of Gulf of Finland. 1) sites of water level reg-
istry, 2) lines of protective structures, 3) gaging station at Mining Institute. .
A subsequent comparison of some of the most important model and field parameters
ctiaracterizing the processes of propagation, transformation and reflection of
long waves and subsequent inertial level oscillations indicated their entirely
satisfactory coincidence. For example, one of the most i~np~rtant prognostic charac-
teristics is the ratio of the maximum water level rise at the Mining Institute to
the rises at other points in the gulf and both in nature and in the model it
was identically equal in Kronshtadt (1.3) and at Ust'-Luga (1.9) and only at Tal-
lin was there some discrepancy: 2.5 in nature, according to N. I. Bel'skiy [2],
and 2.8 according to the model. The time required for the propagation of long
waves f rom the entrance to the Gulf of Finland to the Neva delta in nature and in
the model was also identical 8.0-8.1 hours. The period of uninodal seiche oscil-
lations in nature and in the model is 26-28 hours. In the m4del, as under field
conditions, there were repeated level rises at the head of the gulf, following ap-
proximately 8 hours after the peak of the first rise. Finally, at all points in
the model the variarion in water level during the floo~ of T5 October 1955 was re-
produced quite well,which all researchers relate primarily to inundations of a
long-wave origin.
In the modeling of wind surges, since the similarity criteria for reproduction of
the wind are unreliable, recourse was to an artificial procedure the comparison
method: for one and the same conditions for reproductio~ of the wind we compared
the level rises in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland in the absence and pres-
ence of protective structurea.
The experiments with the reproduction of long waves in the model indicated that un-
der the planned conditions the height of the water level rise to the west of the
structures can be both greater and smP.ller than the rises under natural condit:ions,
86
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depending on the magnitude of the wave itself. An increase in the level rises in
the Culf of Finland to the west of the structures is noted in those cases when
the wave period is less than 16 hosrs. [The characteristics relating to water
level fluctuations in the model are given scaled to natural conditions.J
~
~ w w
~
: ~I~` -
~ S"r i4 ~ ^
~ 1
~
x.I~ I' i. . 1 " ~ ~ ` N~ �
~.5.. ~ G
'
a~ ~
r~ w II
F~
'rtC .
` t. > i ~
L7~,;. ,d, .
i
.w
x~. � _ ~ a .
F~
1~~'M ~ d 1 �ty F~r"~{~,~~.-~ f7 .
t~ ~~'r,w, ~ 'k~+, R,,, .
~ 6 p ~~~.~33 ~w
~.Y R Y/{xfA'i ~r~"( li~ ' I N~��~.~~. .i
j``~} ~!F.b;y . ,;j~`~
N ~P�4~r~ , t C
v~. 7 . +q~ ti~ ~M ~ ~ ~t fi~~
~ . ~ ~ ti.5w:,~:- . Xf > , . .F
~ ~ _ . ~ ~
Fig. 2. Model of Gulf of Finland (view from the direction of the Neva delta). Re-
production of wind surge under planned conditions.
The level increment h) ~efore the structures evidently occurs at the expense of
that volume of water which under natural conditions is expended in filling the
Neva Inlet and the Neva delta above the initial level. Under the planned condi-
tions the water volume not entering into the Neva Inlet is expended on additional
filling of the part of the Gulf of Finland adjacent to the structures to the west.
87
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GM
\ ~
~
400 - - - - 2
�
dh
,~00
~ ~
~
~
200 ~
_ . ~
. .
.
900 '
o ' ~ sa ! ~oo, ~ ~so KM
~opHbiu l~ lUeneneBa o.Ce~lrap I a,/'ocno,vB
A uN-m . ' patNVR l'cpnc g o, MO!({Nb/f/
~y' 3e ~NOLO/!Clf
~ Tll,w.6opOm4
g Ce~Bopoma
Fig. 3. Curves representing increase in water level rises in eastern part of Gulf
of Finland during propagation of long waves of different height. 1) natural condi-
tions; 2) planned conditions.
KEY:
A) Mining Institute F) Northern Gates
B) Shepelevo G) Seskar Island
- C) Krasnaya Gorka H) Moshchnyy Island
ll) Zelenogorsk I) Gogland Island
E) Southern Gates
Figure 3 shows an example of change in level rises along the length of the eastern
part of the Gulf of Finland caused by the propagation of long waves of different
height with their identical period (t) under natural and planned conditions.
An examination of Fig. 3 makes it possible to express the following judgments.
.L. Tlie effect of protective structures on the level rise is discovered approximate-
ly to Moshchnyy Island (about 108 km from the structures).
2. The greatest rise is observed directly before the structures, but tr~e greatest
level increment does not occur at the structures themselves, but at a distance of
' 15-20 km to the west of them. This is attributable to the change in the conditions
for the reflection of lon~ waves: under the planned conditions the reflection f~�ont
is moved 30 km to the west, into a region of relatively greater depths and
� 88
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the gradual decrease in the depths of Neva Inlet and the 1ow shores are replaced
by a virtually vertical wall.
3. The magnitude of the increase in water level under the influence of structures
wiCh an identical period of the waves is the greater the greater the height of
the wave.
Table 1
Increments of Water Level Rises (d h cm) in
Gulf of Finland to West of Protective Struc-
tures for Incidence of Loag Waves With
Different Periods With Same Heights
Region Wave period t, hours
6 8 12 16 20
Northern Gates 12 6 14 14 -20
~Southern Gates ~ 12 6 10 14 -10
'Leleno~orslc 40 28 26 28 6
"TolUukhin" beacon 34 18 34 34 10
Shepelevo�~ � 32 18 22 26 14
Seskar Island 8 16 14 14 0
Table 2
Increment of Water Level Rises (4 h cm) in Gulf of Finland to West of the
Protective Structures With Incidence of Long Waves of Different Heights at
t 9 16 hours
Region Water level rise in Neva delta S, cm
100 200 300 400 500
Northern Gates 17 27~ 36 42 46
Southern Gates 7 15 24 33 41
Zelenogorsk 16 25 34 42 51
"Tolbukhin" beacon 22 31 40 50 59
Shepelevo 14 20 26 32 38
Seskar Island 10 12 14 16 21
rioshchnyy Island 0 0 0 0 0
Other experiments, confirming the ~udgments made, indicated, in addition, the spec-
ial nature of ineasurement of the ~ h value with a change in wave period. The ~ h
value with a change in t from 6 to 16 hours remained essentially unchanged (Table
1). With a traneition to waves with a period of 20 hours the ~ h value at all points
in the gulf f rom the structures to Seskar Island decreased sharply, assuming nega-
tive values directly at the structures. In these experiments the height of all the
~~aves was identical. With their incidence in the head of the gulf the level rise
in the Neva delta for natural conditions was 230 cm.
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An explanation of this phenomenon must probably be sought in the circumstance
that with a period of more than 16 hours the length of the wave begins to ex-
ceed substantially the length of the model and possibly therefore qualitatively
changes the picture and the results of superposing of the preceding, reflected
~~art of the wave on the unreflected part of the wave [3].
For use in ~lanning computations we recommend the means of the maximum registered
0 h values (Table 2). Their values were determined for different wave heights,
conditionally characterized by the level rise in the Neva delta under natural
_ conditions and for wave periods not exceeding 16 hours. �
It follows from an analysis of the reasons for the storm level rises in Neva In-
Let made by Bel'skiy [2] that level rises occurring from the incidence of free
long waves, more than 250 cm on the line of structures and more than 230 cm in the
neighborhood of "Tolbukhin" beacon,have not been observed during the entire 250-
year period of observations. They also were not. noted after publicatipn of the
study by Bel'skiy (1954). This gives basis for assuming that the probability of
their appearance in the future is insignificant. Accprdingly, any ph values in
the Northern Gates of more than 32 cm (13%), in the Southern Gates of more than
20 cm (8%) and at the position of "Tolbukhin" beacon of more than 36 cm (16%)
are improbable. The somewhat greater (by 5-12 cm) increment in level rises in the
Northern Gates in comparison with the Southern Gates is possibly attributable to
the differences in topography of the Northern and Southern Gates when protective
structures are present.
In order to detect the influence of protective structures on the level rise caused
by seiche oscillations a single-node seiche with a period of 26-28 hours, most fre-
quently observed under natural conditions, was reproduced. This study revealed that
protective structures exert virtually no influence either on.the magnitude of the
level rises or on the period of the seiche, since they cut off only 30 km (about
of the total extent of the most narrow and shallow-water part of the basin).
In order to determine the magnitude of the level rise before the structures when
there are wind surges a"westerly" wind of the same force was created, as a re-
sult of whose action a level rise L~ to 145 cm developed in the Neva delta and
up to 225 cm developed when six and nine fans respectively were activated. Even
with such exceedingly high wind surges no substantial increase in level rises was
discovered in the model before the structures in comparison with natural condi-
tions.
Since the wind surge is dependent primarily on wind force and on the depth of the
water body and the protective structures do not change either, at the time of
wind surges there is no basis for expecting changes in the level rises before the
structures. True, in the Gorskaya and Sestroretsk region in the experiments there
was an increase in level rises under the plannEd conditions in comparison with
tlie natural conditions by 10-20 cm, but tliis, it can be surmised, is attributable
to the same factors which cause an increase in the rises here with the incidence
of long waves.
The results of experiments for determining the ~1 h value during the level rises
formed by the mutual superposing of long-wave, wind and seiche rises are set
forth in [4]. They are essentially as follows: in the Neva delta and in Neva Inlet,
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including the Northern and Southern Gates, under natural conditions and directly
before the structures under the planned conditions the resultant rise with super-
posed phenomena in most cases is less than the sum of the rise components, that
_ is, the superposition principle at the head of the gulf is not observed. Under
the planned conditions the approximate "level loss" with mutual superposing of
different kinds of rises is 10-20%.
Thus, the exper~ments with a model of the Gulf of Finland revealed the following:
' 1) The protective structures increase the storm level rises before the struc-
tures only with the incidence of free long waves on them with a period of 16 and
less hours and decrease them in comparison with rises under natural conditions
with the incidence of waves with a period greater than 16 hours.
~ 2) In the presence of wind surges and seiche oscillations the influence of protec-
tive structures on water level rises is not reliably detected.
3) When there are rises of mixed origin, when there is a mutual superposing of the
three principal types of water level fluctuations long-wave, aeiche and those
caused by the westerly wind, ft is found that the resultant of the rises coincid-
ing in phase is always lesa than the sum of the individually taken rise components.
Dangerous rises occur with the superposing of especially significant long-wave,
seiche and wind-induced changes in the level surface of the sea and therefore
it is recommended that it be acknowledged that under the most unfavorable, but
physically possible conditions the magnitude of the additional rise under the in-
fluence of structures cannot be greater than that which ia produced by some long
waves, that is, 8% in the Southern Gates and 13% in the Northern Gates or 20 and
32 cm in absolute expression. Under real conditions, however, if the "level loss"
phenomenon is taken into account, this being discovered with the mutual superpos-
ing of rises of different origin, the indicated values will be essentially less.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Agalakov, S. S., "Protection of Leningrad Against Inundatione," TRUDY GIDRO-
PRUYEKTY (Transactions of the Gidroproyekt), No 56, 1977.
2. Bel'skiy, N. I., "Synoptic Conditions for Leningrad Inundatione," TRUDY GOIN
(Transactions of the State Oceanographic Institute), No 27(39), 1954.
- 3. Noskov, V. G., "On the Problem of the Formation of Leningrad Flooda (Labora-
tory Investigations)," TRUDY GGI (Transactions of the State Hydrological In-
stitute), No 117, 1964.
4. Noskov, V. G., "Modeling of Superposings of Maxima of the Seiche Level, Wind-
Induced Surge and a Long Wave in Neva Inlet," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA
(Meteorology and Hydrology), No 11, 1978.
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UDC 556.536
DEPENDENC~ OF FREE SURFACE SLOPES ON THE MORPHOMETRIC CHARACTERISTICS OF A
CHANNEL AND FLOODPLAIN
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 82-88
[Article by N. B. Baryshnikov, doctor of geographical.sciences, and Ye. S. Subbotina,
Leningrad Hydrometeorological Institute, manuscript submitted 9 Jun 80]
[Text] Abstract: The problems involved in computing
the free surface slopes for maximum water lev-
els are examined taking into account the morpho-
metric characteristics of the floodplain and
channel. The authors propose a new interpreta-
tion of the reasor.s for the formation of loops
on the discharge and mean flow velocity curves
during the passage of high waters along the
floodplains of lowland rivers, based on allow-
ance for the volume of filling and emptying
of a floodplain and channel and the effect of
interaction of the flows in them. A computation-
al grapliic dependence is obtained showing the
dependence of the slope~ of the free surface of
a channel flow with different levels of flood-
plain inundation on the angle of in~ersection
. of the dynamic axes of channel and floodplain
flows.
In calculations of maximum water discharges one of the most important but least stud-
ied characteristics is the slope of the free water surface. There is no method for
computing slopes and in practical work its value is assumed equal to the averaged
bottom slope of the river or the slope of the free surface of the watercourse dur-
ing the low-water period. The imperfeetion of such a method has been noted by many
researchers (M. A. Velikanov [4], G. V. Zheleznyakov [7], D. Ye. Skorodumov [9] and
others). In particular, M. A. Velikanov, as early as 1948, indicated the dependence
of slope of the free surface of a river during the high-water period on the morpho-
metric characteristics of structure of the channel and floodglain [4]. This point
has been developed more fully by one of the authors of this article, who made an
analysis of the nature of change of the free surface slopes of a channel flow with
its interaction with a floodplain flow in dependence on the morphological structure
of a channel and floodplain below the reaeh used in the c~mputations and establish-
ing that narrowing of the floodplain (valley) causes a decrease in the free surface
slopes with an increase in its levels, whereas its broadening, on the other hand,
causes their increase [1, 3].
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In actuality, these studies have demonstrated the invalid~ty of using the averaged
value of the slope of the free surface of the flow, equal to the bottom slope or
the slope of the free surface of the flow at the low-water period in computations
of maximum water discharges.
Accordingly, we made an analysis of the influence of the morphological character-
istics of a channel and floodplain on the slopes of the free surface of a channel
flow during its interaction with the floodplain flow. It should be noted that the
lack of ineasurement data, and, indeed, a method for measuring the free surface
slopes of a floodplain flow, especially in the early stages of floodplain inunda-
tion, makes it impossible to carry out a joint analysis of information on the
change in the slopes of channel and f loodplain flows. However, an analysis of
_ special field investigations carried out by specialists of the State Hydrological
Institute [10] indicates substantial differences in their change with an increase
in water levels, the presence of considerable transverse level drops on the flood-
plain and on the boundary of the channel and floodplain flows. The transverse
slopes in young channels are particularly g~eat.
In this article particular attention will be given to two problems: the influence
of the morphometric characteristica of the floodplain and channel on the nature
of change in the free surface slopes of the channel flow and the reasona for the
formation of loops ~n the curvea for dischargea, velocitiea and free surface
slopes during the interaction of channel and floodplain flows.
On the basis of observational data collected by the Hydrometeorological Service on
66 rivers in the Soviet Union we carried out an analysis of information on high-
water measurements in channels with floodplains. As a result of the analysis, de-
_ pending on the reliability of the initial information an$ the amplitude of level
variations revea7_ed by measurements of water discharges, we selected information
on 33 rivers. On 13 of these thare was a second type of interaction between the
channel and floodplain flows, on 19 the third type, and on one the first type.
At all posts the axes of the channel and floodplain flowa intersected at angles
less than or equal to 50�. Accordingly, all the observational data for rivers ~aith
type-IV interaction of flows, in accordance with the nature of change in the flood-
~ plain beiow the computation point, were assigned' either to the second or to the
third types. .
- The basis of the claseification proposed by N. B. Baryshnikov in [2] was the change
in the widths af the floodplains, characterized by the relative orientation of the
dynamic axes of the: channel and floodplain flowa. The firat type correaponds to
parallelism of the flow axes; the eecond is characterized by their divergence in
the lower-lying reach (with broadening of the floodplain); the third corresponds
to a convergence of the axes (with narrowing of the fl~oodplain). The fourth and
fifth types correspond to flows whose dynamic axes interaect at diffe.rent anglea
(a With small tY angles and broadening of the floodplain below the computation
reach the process of interaction of the flows in the fourth type is closer to the
second, but with narrowing of ths floodplain is cloaer to the third. The fifth
type differs from the fourth in having in having a stepped atructure of the flood-
plains.
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It sl~ould be noted that observations of fre~ surface slopes of the channel flow
at most posts either are not ma.de or have a low accuracy. As an example we can
ctte the Northwestern Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service where
measurements of slopes at floodplain posts are made only at Tolmachevo station,
situated on the Luga River. The situation is still worse at the Krasnoyarsk, East
Siberian and a number of other administrations where high-water measurements in
- floodplain sectors are not made at all.
As the principal computation characteristic N. B. Baryshnikov proposed the values
of the angles of intersection (divergence or convergence) of the dynamic axes of
the flows (oC) [1, 2]. TheoC. angle is computed most precisely from mapa of cur-
rents constructed on the basis of field data as the angle between the averaged
vectors of the mean velocities of the channel and floodplain flows. Approximate-
ly., with an accuracy to 3-5�, this angle is determined as the angle between the
. geometrical ax~s of the channel and floodplain from the (contoured) map of the
area of a post situated below the computation sector.
The value of the oC angle sometimes varies very greatly with a change in water

~~7 levels and its va~.ue as a rule is determined by the nature of the cha.nge in the
widths of the floodplain in the lower-ly~.ng reach. For the second type of inter-
action of flows the value of the O~C angle was taken with a negative sign, whereas
for the third it was taken with a positive sign. This is attributable to the fact
that the effect of interaction of flows in the second type is opposite of that in
the third. In actuality, fo~ the third type with an increase in the oiCa~n~le and
constant depth values the velocities and the free surface slopes of the channel
flow decrease and the resistances increase. In the second type the reverse pic-
ture is observed, that is, with an increase in the oC angle the velocities and
slopes increase, whereas the resistances decrease j3].
In developing the method the principal computation parameter used was the free sur-
face slope of the channel flow at the level of flooding of the channel bank brow
_ ~Ichan b.r~� The level of flooding of the channel bank brow is determined rather
simply from the cross-sectional profiles.at a hydrological post for rivers with a
channel process free and uncompleted meandering and a multibranching floodplain
process. The determination of this level for other types of channel process,, de-
scribed in a number of special studies jl, 9], is somewhat more complex.
For each watercourse we computed the values I/Ichan br and corstructed curves of
the dependence I/Ichan br ' f(H~) and I/Ichan br - f~hchan~hchan ~r~~ Which sup-
plemented the data published by N. B. Baryshnikov in [1], where H is the water
level over the char.nel bank brow. As indicated by an ar.alysis of these curves,_
their position is determined by the morphological structure of the reach situated
below the point for which the computations were made.
Using the collected data for constant values of relative depths (hchan~hchan br~>
we constructed graphic dependences I/Ichan br = f(oC) (Fig. 1). The figure shows
that it is possible to trace a clear pattern of change in the relative values of
the free surface slopes with an increase in the OC angle. Thus, with an increase in
uc from -45 to 0� (second type of interaction of flows) there is an intensive de-
crease in slopes (I/Ichan br~� The I~Ichan br - f(oC) curves for different values
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of relative depths are almost parallel to one another and only with values of the
o~ angle close to 0� does the intensity of changes in the slopes decrease sharp-
ly. In actuality, with an increase in the a angles in the cited range the values
of the slopes (I/Ichan br~ change from 3.5 to 1.0 respectively.
_ I/l.
.
a3
d
_ 2 ~
.r
, '
� � ,
, � .
, . ' . ,
_ '-f'0 �20 0 20 40 60 BO 10.^� d'
:
Fig, l. Curves of the dependence I/Ichan ~r ~ f~hchan~hchan br~�C~�
1) with hchan~hchan br ~ 1.1; 2) with hchan/hchan br ' 1.25; 3) with hchan~chan br
s 1~5�
The nature of the change in the free aurface slopea is essentially different with
an increase in the o~ angles from 0 to 50� (third type of interacCion of flows).
The curves of the dependence I/I~}~an br ' f(oG) for different relative depths
were also close to parallel and haee an insignificant slope to the x-axis (a).
~ T:ie free surface slopes in this range of change in an~lea decrease from 1.0 to
0.9 with hchan~hchan br - 1.10 and to 0.4 with hchan~hchan br a 1.50.
The resulting dependences I/Ichan br � f(� , hc~n/h~h~n~ br~ gre quite cloae, their
- correlati>>n ratios (for different depths) vary from . to 0.94, and the standard
deviations vary from 0.59 to 0.79.
The A' angle evidently inadequately characterizes the m~rphological structure of
the computed reach. A significant influence is also exerted by the relative widths
of the floodplain (Bfl/Bchan~ and other morphometric characteristics. However, the
correlation coefficients between the valuea of the free aurface slopes (I/Ichan br~
and these morphometric characteristics are small 0.5), which makea it impos-
sible to recommend their use in computations.
The second objective of this study was an investigation of the problem of the form-
ation of loops on the curves of the dependences Q= f(H), v~ f(H) and I= f(Ii)
with the passage of high waters along the floodplain. As is well known, this
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problem has concerned a number of Soviet j4, 5 and others] and foreign researchers.
The general conclusions from these s:tudies can be summarized as follows:
with an identical high-water wave in each section of the flow there ia first a
velocity maximum, then a discharge maximum and then a height maximum" ([4], p
330).
Thus, the authors assert that with the pas.sage of a high-~~ater wave the slopes,
current velocities and water discharges in its frontai part exceed the correspond-
ing values in the rear part. Accordingly, the dependences Q= f(H); v= f(H) and I
= f(H) for the high-water period should be looped and the curve for the rise must
be situated to the right of the dropoff curve. This finding is only partially con-
firmed by data from field observations (Ob' River at Barnaul, etc.), because at a
number of posts (Luga River at Tolmachevo village and elsewhere)~on the mentioned
curves there is an opposite arrangement of curves, that is, the branch for the rise
is situated to the left of the branch for the dropoff, but for the ma~ority of
rivers unambiguous curves of the dependence of the mentioned parameters on water
levels are usually drawn. Such a character of the dependences Q= f(H), v= f(H)
and I= f(H) is difficult to explain on the basis of the classical concepts set
forth by M. A. Velikanov and other authors. It is particularly difficult to ex-
plain this situation with the passage of high waters along an inundated floodplain.
In 1978 N. B. Baryshnikov proposed a hypothesis explaining the formation of lcops
for rivers with floodplains, especially loops with an opposite positioning of the
branches for the rise and dropoff [lJ. However, this hypothesis also requires fur-
- ther investigations and improvement.
The process of fermation of the velocity field of channel flow and the carrying cap-
acity of a channel is influenced to a considerable degree by two oppositely di-
rected factors. The first is the accumulation of water by the floodplain ancl chan-
nel during the period of rising of levels and its entry into the channel from the
floodplain during its evacuation. The question arises as to the choice of length
of the reach in which the computed volume is determined. Taking into account the
"beaded" nature of the change in widths of floodplains [6]~, the length of the
reach used for computational purpo~es is assumed to be the distance between suc-
cessive narrowings of the floodplain in the region where hydrological taeasurements
- are made.
The second factor is the slowing of channel flow by the floodplain flow during the
dropoff of high water and an increase in its velocities during the rising of lev-
zls due to the outflow of masses of water along the floodplain.
- Thus, the balance equation will be written in the following formo
- * *
Wdropi ' Wrisei + Widrop ~ Wirise - d Wi, ~1)
where Wrisei is the. volume of outflow of water from the channel onto the flood-
plain during the period of rise of levels; Wdropi is the volume of water inflow
into the channel from the floodplain during the period of the dropping-off (equal
to the volume Wrisei~ excluding losses in t*e filling of undrainable relief de-
pressions, infiltration and evaporation); Wi drop-rise is the change in the volume
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of runoff in the channel during the rising (W*i xiSe) or dropoff ~Wi dro ~ of lev-
- els due to interaction between the channel and tloodplain flows; i is apsubscript
denoting the phase of filltng or emptyirag of the floadplain and assuming the val-
ues l, 2, 3; Q Wi is the algebraic sum of these volumes, characterizing the diVer~
gence of the branches of the curves of the dependQnce Q~ f(H) with the rising
- - .
and dropoff of levels. ~
.Smu~S::C.M R ~ '
~ � :
Hchan br ;,~~r~.sa~ ye �
g ~1
J
JOG
1
_ e; .
~ ,H~,., 'iC:u -
HOllt 1~ .
~a ZO~ ^YvilM~: m3/sec ;
' o,? ?a v,o r~;s m/sec ~
c~t ~;C; ;i;,- [~v 21ri;.. ~
Fig. 2. Curves of the dependence Q a f(H). v s f(H) and i a.f(H~. Luga River, Tol-
machevo village, 1977.
With the formation of a unified flow the nature of the interaction of its channel
and floodplain components ~ill be determiaed hy the~morphological atructure of the
- reach used in the computations [1~ 2]. ~
In order to confirm these concepts we carried out computationa in the example of a
number of xivers, especially the Luga River at Tolmachevo village.
Figure 2 shows that with the pass$ge of a.high water of low guaranteed probability
in 1977 the water discharges, velocities and free surface slopes during the period
of rising of levels were considerably less than during the dropoff. Accordingly, in
constructing curves of the dependences of these parameters on water level we ob-
tained looped curves.
Such a nature of the change in discharges, velocities and free surface slopea can
be explained on the basis of the advanced concept.,
Floodplains are exceptionally diversified and their structure, dependent on their
type, deter~aines the nature of the interaction between the channel and floodplain
_ flows. According to data published by the State Hydrological Inatitute in [8], the
most common are the floodplains of freely meandering rivera, which includes the
floodplain of the Luga River at Tolmachevo village. Precisely for this type of
floodplains it was posaible to discriminate three phases of their filling and
emptying in [1].
- In the first phase of inundation the water entera onto the floodplain from the chan-
nel through breaks situated in the lower parts of the floodplain sectore. On the
latter there will be currents opposite in direction to the channel flow, intensive
infiltration, filling of different isolated wate�r bodiea and depreasions in the
relief, and on this almost th~ entire mass of water coming from the channel will be
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expended. At the same time, as a result of the outflow of masses of water from the
channel onto the floodplain tl~Qre will be some increase in velocities in the chan-
nel part of the flow (interaction of channel and floodplain flows close to the
second type).
The rev~rse phenomenon is observed in the similar phase of emptying of the flood-
plains. The water masses enter the channel from the floodplain sectors and the
channel flow is slowed. '
Thus, for this phase of filling and emptying of floodplains equation (1) can be
written in the form * *
wl rise ' wrisel - W1 drop + Wdropl W1� ~2~
Depending on the morphological characteristics of the channel and floodplain these
characteristics can vary in a considerable range and the Q W1 value can have a pos-
itive, negative or zero value.
The second phase of inundation is characterized by the entry of masses of channel
flow onto the f.loodplain through upstream breaks and low places in the banks aiid
the formation of a transitory flow on it. In this case the channel and the flood-
plain flows are separated by a longitudinal river bank.
Equation (1) will also be valid for the second phase of floodplain inundation. How-
ever, the values of the terms in the equation change considerably. For example,
WdroP2 in absolute value will be close to Wrise ~the magnitude of the losses is
determined only by evaporation and infiltration~j, but has an opposite sign. The
determination of W2 rise, 2 drop is more complex because in the upper parts of the
floodplain sectors the water on them arrives from the channel, whereas in the low-
er parts the reverse picture is observed, that is, the flow is from the floodplain
sectors into the channel. Thus, the value and the aign of W2* rise and W2 drop are
dependent on the morphological structure of the reach and tFie location of the com-
putation point on the floodplain sector.
Equation (1) for the second phase of filling and emptying of floodplains can be
represented in the form
WdroP2 '~~rise2 f W2 rise � W2 drop = ~W2. ~3)
It should be noted that in all phases of filling and emptying of floodplains the
Q Wi value is considerably influenced by the measurement errors and the computa-
tion methods.
The third phase is characterized by inundation of the channel bank brows. The chan-
nel and f loodplain flows, merging, form a unif ied channel-floodplain flow. The val-
ues of the terms Wrisei and Wdropi in equations (2), (3) are determined by the
depth of flooding and the dimensions of the f loodplain in the computation sector.
The same as in the second phase, Wrise3 in absolute value is cloae to Wdropg~ dif-
fering only with respect to the magnitudes of the lossea in evaporatian and fil-
tration during periods of the r~se and fall in levels:
WdroP3 - Wrise3 t W3 rise t W3 drop � aW3� (4)
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Taking inta account that the brou~s of the channel banks are inundated, the nature
of the interaction between the channel and floodplain flows will be similar for
this phase of filling and emptying of the floodplain and theiefore in the firat
approximation we will use W3 rise ~ W3 a � However, an unsteady regime of move-
ment of the flows will exert a aubetan~ia~pinfluence on the process of their in-
teraction, but tt is difficult to take it into account. Special laboratory and
field investigations of this process are required. Accordingly, at the present
time only a rough estimate of these p~rameters has been made.
Thus, equation (4) for the third phase of filling and emptying of floodplains can
be rep resented in the form
WdroP3 ' Wrise3 ^
L~ w3� ~S)
We used field data for ~onfirming the proposed hypothesis. In particular, in 1977
a high water with a close to 1% guaranteed probability passed along the Luga River
at Tolmachevo village. The individial phasea of this high water are quite com-
pletely and reliably covered by measurement data (Fig. 2).
The Wrisei and Wdropi valv~es were determined for a cq~iputation reach of the Luga
River with a length of 9 lan situated betweea two auccessive narrowings of a val-
ley in which there are virtually no floodplains. The computed Wi riae 8nd W* drop
values were determined from the refined graphic dependences
~chan~~chan br.� f~hchan~hchan br~ ~ ~$flood~Bchan~~
proposed by N., B. Baryshnikov in [3] for the aecond and third types of interaction
of channel aad floodplain flows. The reaults of the computations are given in the
table.
Values of Parameters (106m3) in Equationa (2)~(5) for Luga River at Tolmachevo
Phase of floodplain Wdropi ' Wrisei W~ riae - Wi drop d Wi ~ Wcr dW~ ~
inundation ls wcr
First and second -3.8 -2.1 -5.9 -5.5 7.3
Third 37.2 37.2 18.4 102
The computed ~ Wi value was compared with the Q W~r value, determined as the dif-
ference in the runoff voliunes during the period of rising and dropoff of water
levels in different phase~ of filling and emptying of the floodplain (Fig. 2),
Due to the absence or low accuracy of some initial data the computations were made
for the first-second and separately for the third phases of filling and emptying
of the floodplain. The table shows that for the first and second phases there is
a good agreement between the computed and field data. The diacrepancy of 7.3% is
in the limits of accuracy in measuring water discharges in the high-water period.
At the same time, the deviation of the computed data from the actual data for the
third phase is 102%, evidence of shortcomings in the proposed method and the need
for its further improvement for this phase.
' 99
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It is evidently necessary to make additinnal allowance for the influP.nce of un-
steady movement, introducing sub.s.tantial corrections into the processes 9f inter-
action between channel and floodplain flows, filling and emptying o~ floodplains.
However, the proposed method makes. it possible to evaluate the position ot the
rise and d~~poff branches on the water discharge and velocity curves during the
passage of higli.waters at floodplain measurement points.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Baryshnikov, N. B., RECfINYYE POYMY (MORFOLOGIYA I GIDRAVLIKA) (River Flood- ~
plains (Morphology and Hydraulics)), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978.
2. Baryshnikov, N. B., "River Floodplains (Morphology, Hydrology and Hydraulics),"
Author's Summary of Dissertation .for Award of the Academic Degree of Doctor
of Sciences, Leningrad, 1978.
3. Baryshnikov, N. B., "Method for Computing the Carrying Capacity of Channels
With Floodplains," VOPROSY MELIORATIVNOY GIDROGEOLOGII I GEOLOGII ZONY N~-
_ DOSTATOCHNOGO WLAZHENIYA (Problems in Meliorative Hydrogeole.gy and Geology
of the Zone of Inadequate Moistening), LPI, No 69, 1979.
4. Ve].ikanov, M. A., GIDROLOGIYA SUSHI (Hydrology of the Land), Leningrad, Gidro-
meteoizdat, 1948.
5. Goncharov, V. N., DINAMIKA RUSLOVYKH POTOKOV (Dynamics of Channel Flows), Len-
ingrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1962.
6. Makkaveyev, N. I., RUSLO REKI I EROZIYA V YEYE BASSEYNE (River Channel and
Erosion in Its Basin), Moscow, Izd-vo AN SSSR,.1955. ~
7. Zheleznyakov, G. V., TEORIYA GTDROMETRII (Theory of Hydrometry), Leningrad,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.
8. Popov~, I. V. an3 Kochanenkova, N. P., "Morphological Characteristics of River
Floodplains," TRUDY GGI (Transactions of the State Hydrological Ins titute),
No 190, 1972.
9. POSOBIYE PO EKSTRAPOLYATSII KRIVYKH RASKHODOV VODY DO NAI~~YSSHIKH UROVNEY (Man-
ual on Extrapolation of Water Discharge Curves to the Highest Levels), Lenin-
grad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1966.
10. Usachev, V. F., "Analysis of Changes in Water Level for Evaluating Processes of
Filling ~nd Emptying of a Branching Floodplain," TRUDY GGI (Transactions of the
State Hydrological Institute), No 195, 1972.
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. UDC 556.048:519.2
~RRORS IN MEASURING WATER DISCHARGES BY THE ~VELOCITY-AR~A' METHOD ~
t4oscow P�iETEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Ruasian No 1, Jan 81 pp 89-97
[Article by V. A. Rumyantsev, candidate of technical aciences, submitted for pub-~
lication 17 Jun 80]
- [Text] Abstract: The article gives expresgiona making it
possible to ascertain the systematic errora and
dispersions of random errors in determining ele-
mentary water discharges and in measuring the
_ total water discharge by the "velocity-area"
method.
An improwement in methods for determining runoff requires the ability for making
a proper evaluation of the accuracy in measuring water diachargea. Recently this
sub~ect has been devoted much attention in the hydrological literature both in
our country [1-11] and abroad [12-15].
Specialists at the State Hydrological Institute, bEginning.in 1906, have carried
out a ma~or complex of studies for evaluating the accuracy and optimizing meas-
urements of water discharges. However, the discussion recently ariaing on the
pages of this ~ournal [4, 10] has ahown that there are sti11 many diaputable as-
nects of this problem attributable primarily to the fact that the aolutione ob-
tained up to the present time have been based on different kinds of asaumptions
and it is not possible to evaluate the degres of their approximation. Accordingly,
the need has arisen for a further continuation of theae atudies. In this article
an attempt has been made.in the moet ~qener.al fo~rmulation to derive expreseions for
determining the systematic error and dispersion of random errora ~n measuring
water discharge by the "velocity-area" method, the method used most commonly in
;~ractical work.
When using the "velo~ity-area" method.the total water discharge through^the crosa
section of the flow Q is obtained by aummation of the_water discharges q pasaing
through elementary sur�aces n+t ~
' Q � ~ 9~, ~ (1)
i=i
where n is the number of verticals. We will deaignate the error in measuring the
c~:lementary water discharge by eQi..Then the error in the total diacharge will be
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~ ~+i~ ~
e^ ~ e^. (2)
= Q isl q(
The error in measuring the water discharge eQ is a random parameter conforming td
some distribution 1aw. We will then characterize this distribution law,by two
~arameters the mean value eQ and t~e dispersion De~". We note that the mean val-
ue in this case is the systematic error in measuring t~he water discharge.
Taking the mathematical expectation af both_sides of expression (2), we obtain
� n~~
e~ _ ~ (3)
Q r= 1 Qi
where e^ is the systematic error in measuring the discharge of water flowing
throughqan elementary surface bounded by the (i-1)-st and i-th verticals. For the
dis~ersion DeQ we have the expression
_ Ntl ~'1~
De~ Den ~ 2~ R(en� e~)~ (4)
Q t=t a~ t
,
,r=, ,
De� _ m (Dv' 2 R f v, v' 7~ ~wi + D Wi ) -f- (w~+i
0
D'un~~~ 7w~"~s -I' �d1nWnt1 ~~5 ~"'+-tm~-I-~l.. (~'i D w~) f-
. t=s
~
~ L!r 7~ ~~i U tni~ R~'Ul. k'~" '~I, f~1 l~~.i.~ D cuR+~~ R~'Un~ M~ '~e~ !~"t-
~ k_1 l-1
. A
+.2 ; u R (v~, v~, + ~ W, ~t (R (v~. v,-~,:) +
r_,
107 ~
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_ R 1v1, Ar 'Ui~ 1~ 1 Y~L Wn-~-I ER ~'ui-l. Rr '~R~ f~ ~'pi, R~ '~'e. l~l
- n '
+ 0,25 ( ~ ~ R (v._~, k, v~-~. + R (v,, ~ ) + . (29)
L ~.1 ~:2
~
+ ~ R (t~~-i. r~ r) ~ + ~ D ~ R (vi-i, vt-~. i ) R (v~, R, vr. r) -f-
; . .
1 r
+ ~ R (vr-i, x~ vr, t~ ~ ~ ~ J S [ 2 R 4yr, vc=. )
`i
n ~
-r ~1' (un~-] ~i ~VII~ k, '~(a~ fl~ ) + v, ~R (vl-l, R~ v(a~
l-2
-'r Fl (2~t, x, v~Q. T~ l da d:: -f- 1 f R~^~(_~, i~)~ ~'(x:~ ra)dal d~~das dc~ z.
J ~w~ 4 ' '
r 16 .
s ~ ;s
r ~ . �
.
4 + ,
~ + ~
~
~ `~v
z xz~x ~
\ v '
/
~00 06 12 1B 24y hours
Taking into account both characteristics of the boundary layer, Laykhtman [3, 4]
proposed an approximation s.ynthesizing (1) and (2). In somewhat modified forn [5,
C] this approximation can be written
dA _ u~ - z i. 1.. . ~3)
i~ + J
lt2 3T S%3 ~J T?'0~ r%(j~, ~
where T~x4( ya _ ~ 2 is the Laykhtman parameter, characterizing thermal
conditions when z-?oo, jpa is the absolute value of the adiabatic temperature
gradient 9.8�10'3K/m), yub is the temperature gradient at the upper boundary
of the aCmospheric boundary layer, taken with the opposite sign, z~ is the rough-
ness parameter. Height is reckoned from the ground surface.
The authors of [S, 7, 8] noted the important role of stratification of the upper
part of the atmospheric boundary layer, especially in the low latitudes. In this
connection it is necessary to investigate the variability of the parameter and
its typical. values on the basis of experimental data.
The purpose of this study is an investigation of diurnal variations of the para-
meters ~.and (V , and also checking the comparative accuracy of approximations of
temperature profiles by different formulas. For this purpose we processed Cemper-
ature profiles measured in the "Wangara" experiment.[9]. From the 44 days of the
experiment we selected 13 for which frontal surfaces were absent at the observa-
tion.point and the isobars had a minimum ~urvature. The friction velocity values
- were obtained by a graphic method from the profile af inean wind velocity, measured
at heights up to 8 m. The temperature profiles: were processed by the least squares
method using formula (3). The entire region of ineasurements (0-2000 m) was used
for obtaining the � and r values. This method is characterized by a greater ac-
curacy in comparison with.the usually practiced evaluation of the ~.and f para-
meters~ separately on the basis of several points j,ri the lower and upper parts of
the boundary layer. In addition, there is no need for solving difficult problems
in determining the values of the a T parameter and determining the height
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of the boundary layer, since the r parameter ~ras determined by us directly from
(3), and not on the basis of a determination of this parameter. Since in the
numerical modeling of dynamics of the boundary layer of the atmosphere use was
made not of the stratificatton paramet~rs themselves:, but tihe related turbulent heat
f1ow, the indicated method for determining them corresponds to the formu3.ated prob-
lem.
Figure 1 a,b shows the diurnal variation of the � and r parameters, determined by
approximation of the temperature profiles hy �ormula (3). At 060Q-0900 hours at the
earth's surface there is. a s.tability ~rhich at 1200-1500 hours is replaced by in-
stability. The mean variation of ~ averaged for 13 days for the "Wangara" experi-
- ment falls in~the range -120-200. In contrast to the parameter ~,c, which has now
been studied quite well, little is. known about the r parameter. Figure lb shows the
3iurnal value of this parameter on the hasis of data from the "Wangara" experiment.
As in the case of the value varies in the courae of 24 hours in a quite broad
range. The (V parameter, ~averaged for 13 days, varies in the course of 24 hours from
150 to 500 with a mean daily value 265. A comparison of Figures la and lb shows that
the diurnal variations of � and (~have a phase ahift. The development of instability
at the~earth's surface during ~~0~1200 hnurs is as�ompanied by an increase in stab-
ility in the upper part of the boundary layer. T[ze maximum is observed at 1200
liours. The change in r lags by approximately 6 hours in comparieon with the change
in ~l..
Figure lc represents the diurnal variation of the meari gradient of potential tem-
perature~ determined by averaging of the gradient in the entire interval of change
in the hpight of observation in the "Wa~gara'�'.experiment (f rom the ground surface
to a height of 2000 m). The mean daily potent3al temperature grad~ent is -6.1��10'~
K/m. It is intereating that the diurnal variattons d e/dz are in phase with the
J,.~.variations. Variations of the mean temperature gradient have a lesser relative
amplitude than the ~I,and r variations. This is natuial because, as can be seen from
a comparison of Fig. la and Fig. lh, atratification in the lower and upper parts of
the boundary layer variea with a considerable phase shift, in part compensating one
another. ~ ' ~ ~
The phase shift of the diurnal vartationa of r and d B/dz has a simple explana-
tion. The diurnal temperature variations at the upper bouadary of the botmdary layer
have a considerably lesser ampli.tude than at the ground aurface. Accordingly, the
diurnal temperature variations of the earth's. surface are in pl.ase with variations
or the potential, temperature gradient d B/dz, averaged for the entire boundary lay-
er. The phase shift of the variations in r relative to the phase of the ~ variations
is related to the propagation of the diuraal tempesature wave. In actuality, accord-
ing ta measurements by Devyatova (1~, the velocity of propagation of diurnal temper-
ature variations in the atmospher3:c houndary layer is a~out 100 m/hour. According
to data from the "Wangara" experiment [9, 1o, 11], the velocity of movement of the
phase of temperature vartationa at Q60Q-lOQQ hours is about 30-50 m/hour, whereas at
1200-1800 hours it is about 100 m/hour. Accordingly, variations of the temperature
difference in the layer 0-60Q m during the daytime hours will outrun the change in
stratification in the layer 600-1200 m by approximately 6 hours, which also explaina
the origin of the phase shift in the diurna~ variations of ~Jland r.
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Formula (3) fairly well reflects the characteriatic features of thermal stratific-
ation, especially during instab.ility. The mean square error in approximation of
the temperature profile hy formula (3) was equal (averaged for all observation per-
iods) to 0.55 K.
BIBLIOG~ttAPHY
l. Devyatova, V. A., MIKROAEROLOGICHESKIYE ISSLEDOVANzYA NIZHNEGO KILOMETROVOGO
- SLOYA ATMOSFERY (Microaerological Investigations of the Lower Kilometer Atmo-
spheric Layer), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1957.
2. Kazanskiy, A. B. and Monin, A. S., "Turhulent Regime Above the Surface Air Lay-
er,~~ IZV. AN SSSR: SER. GEOFIZ. (D1ews of the USSR Academy of Sciences: Geophys-
ical Series), No 1, 1960.
3. Laykhtman, D. L., FIZIKA POGRANICHNOGO SLOYA ATMOSFERY (Physics of the Atmo-
spheric Boundary Layer), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1970.
4. Laykhtman, D. L., PARAMETERIZATSIYA PLANETARNOGO POGRANICHDTOGO SLOYA ATMOSFERY.
NATSIONAL'NAYA PROGRAMMA NAUCHNYI:H ISSLEDOVANIY V SSSR V MEZHDUNARODNOM ATLAN-
TICHESKOM TROPICHESKOM EKSPERIMENTE (Parameterization of the Planetary Boundary
Layer of the Atmosphere. National Program of Scientific Investigations in the
USSR in the International Atlantic Tropical Experiment), Moscow, 1974.
5. Laykhtman, D. L. and Popov, A. M., "Influence of Thermal Stratification of the
Atmospheric Boundary Layer on Its Integral Characteristics," IZV. AN SSSR:
FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA (News of the USSR Academy of Sciences: Physics of the
Atmosphere and Ocean), Vol 12, No 6, 1976.
6. Popov, A. M., RASCHETNYYE PROFILI METEOROLOGICI~SKIKH KHARAKTERISTIK V PLANETAR-
NOM POGRANICHNOM SLOYE ATMOSFERY (Computed Profiles of the Meteorological Char-
acteristics in the Planetary Boundary Layer), Leningrad, LGt4I, 1975.
7. Popov, A. M., "Influence of External Parameters on Turbulent Diffusion of an Ad-
mixture in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer," IZV. AN SSSR: FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I
OKEANA, Vol 12, No 6, 1976. ~
8. Tarnopol'skiy, A. G. and Shnaydman, V. A., "Structure of the Atmospheric Boundary
Layer," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 3, 1977.
9. Clarke, R. H., Dyer, A. J., Brook, R. R., Reid, D.. G. and Troup, A. J., "The Wan-
gara Experiment Boundary Layer Data," Div. Met. Phys. Techn. Paper No 19, Common-
wealth, Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia, 1971.
10. Kuo, Fi. L., "The Thermal Interaction Between the Atmosphere and the Earth and
Propagation of Diurnal Temperature Waves," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 25, No 5, 1968.
11. Orlansky, I., Ross, B. B. and Polinsky, L. J., Diurnal Variation of the Planet-
ary Boundary Layer in Mesoscale Model," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vo1 31, No 4, 1974.
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~ UDC 556.(013:535.8)
riODEL OF FORMATION OF A STATIONARY ZONE OF CONTAMINATION IN WATER BODIES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No l, Jan 81 pp 1U5-107
[Article by A. V. Karaushev, professor, and L. N. Meyerovich,~State Hydrological
Institute, submitted for publication 12 Jun 80]
[Text] Abstract: The article gives a model of
formation of a stationary zone of con-
tamination in water bodies due to the dis-
charge of a nonconservative disaolved con-
taminating substance. The model is based
on a numerical solution of~the turbulent
diffusion equation in cylindrical coordin-
ates,. The results of the computationa are
presented in the form of a nomogram which
can be' used in solving practical probtems.
Formulas are also propoaed for estimating
the total maes of contaminating~subatance
~ in a water body and the time required for
stabilizing the region of'propagation of
the contaminating substancea.
Methods making it possible to estimate or predict.the indices of water quality
in water bodies which are the receivera of waste waters are of great importance
for evaluating the sanita~ry state of water bodies, in planning and projecting
water conservation measures. The proposed model of the propagation of matter
over the surface of a water body makes it posaible to compute the parameters of
the contamination zone�forming.in a water body due to the discharge of a noncon-
servative dissolved contaminating eubetance in it. Thp model ia based on the tur-
bulent diff usion equation in cylindrical coordinates proposed in [2]. The equa-
tion was derived on the basis of the balance of masa of contaminating subetance
t~nder the following assumptions: the currents in the water body'in the region of
discharge of the waste waters are small in magnitude and variable in direction;
the depCh of the water body in the discharge region is small; there are no trib-
utaries in the discharge region; the waste water source ie situated at the center
af co,rdinates; the decay (or formation) of a nonconservative substance ia de-
scribed by the first-degree equation
[H = non(conservancy) ] dt = k�s~ ~1~
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where s is the concentration, t is time, knon is the nonconservancy coefficient
(the value is negative for decaying matter).
Tlie t~irh~ilent diffuston equaCion with the indicated assumptions has the form
ds ~ ~~__~,_s ~ ds kH s, ~2~
[Ii = non] dt dr~ r ~
Here D is the turbulent diffusion coefficient, r is a coordinate of the cylindrical
system (distance f rom the discharge site), ~ is a parameter determined by the equa-
tion _ . -
~ ~=p:..~,,
[CT = waste] ~ ~3~
where QWaste is the discharge of waste water, H is the mean depth of the water body
in the discharge region, ~ is the angle of the sector of propagation of waste
waters (in the case of discharge along a linear shore ~P = J1 ; in the case of dis-
charge distant from the shore 2~'t).
The concentration field at any moment in time will be symtnetric relative to the
origin of ~coordinates; the concentration isolines are concentric circles with the
center at the origin of coordinates. If it is assumed that the background concentra-
- tion of a particular substance in a water body is equal to zero and the dimensions
of the forming region of propagation of contaminating substance are less than the
, dimensions of the water body, the boundary and initial conditions can be written
in the form
S o= s~ ~ S ~ r~ ao ~4)
[CT = waste] S so _ p~
(5, .
where sWaste is the concentration of this substance in the waste waters. In the
case of a nonzero background concentration the solution of the formulated problem
will give the excess of the concentration above the background.
Equation (2) with the boundary conditions (4), (5) is solved numerically. The cor-
respondtng difference scheme_has the__form_ ` _ ~
- Sj 1~ ~1( - S~ Yj -V- S~ T~ 7~( F1
lJ f
(i - 1, 2~. N-1: .i = 1~ 2, .1,
S~-S~~., s~.~0(i�~U, 1,2....1~ (7)
s~=0(i=1, 2,..., N). ~8~
The superscript denotes the number of the time interval, the subscript denotes the
interval along the radius: r~~ _ ~ D-
~i=:D~~1-! ~
�,r~aD-(2- a l 1-obD~t ~9~
\ ~
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Ff~ ~i_~(1-.)D:rl--~-1-s{X
\ ~
x{(l-�)(D-(2- al-bD~el_
L ~ / J
- l~ + s,l}.~ - o) D
(10)
a=p, b= k~"..~
. Qe (11)
T a Q
~ ~
~12~
Q t is the time interval, Q r is the interval along the radius, Q is a parameter
of the scheme (in the computations it was assumed that O'= 0.5).
sy
_ ~o . .
so � _ .
'a ,
f0
�y _ ,
O
Z~ s :
O,
1 ~ -
Q ~ ~ ~ ~
Fig. 1. s (a, ~ ) nourogram.
The problem (6)-(8) is solved by the step method
- S{+; = sr+l xi+t + ~i*'
(13)
(!=0, 1.. , N-1;
f = 0, l, . .
These "step" coefficients ~re computed uaing the recurrent formulas
.l 7~- -
~
~!i' ~ ~ Yl - !+1 7.1
� ~ ' �i'~i + Fi .
~il~ @
- 7.~
(14)
(1~ l, 2, . . . , N-1),
~ /i - - S~T~ ~15~
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The proposed computation scheme makes it possible to obtain the concentration
field in the water body at stipulated time intervals after the onset of waste
water discharge.
Numerical experiments show that in the case of discharge into a water body from a
source with a constant intensity of the decaying contaminating substance (knon<
its distribution zone is stabilized after a certain number of computation time in-
tervals. This corresponds to theoretical concepts according to which stabilization
sets in at the time when the mass of matter decaying in a unit time in the water
is in equilibrium with the receipt of the particular substance with the waste
water in the water body. In such a situation the diffusion process is described
by the equation
- D-
~j~ -...~r + k� s m 0
(16)
with the boundary conditions (4). The solution of the corresponding di.fference
scheme was also found by the "step" method and the results indicated a good agree-
ment with the results of solution of the already described scheme with stabiliza-
tion of the concentration field. As indicated by the computations, the concentra-
tion s with fixed values of the a parameter is a function of the dimensionless
parameter r~. This. made it posaible to construct a nomogram (see Fig. 1)
by means of which it is possible to obtain the values of the different character-
is.tics of the reg~.on of propagation of the nonconaervative contaminating substance
in the water body directly. The nomogram makes it possible to determine the con-
centration of the particular substance at an arbitrary distance from the site of
discharge of the waste water or to find the distance to an isoline of an arbitrary
concentration. Thus, it is possible to estimate the dimensions of the zone of con-
tamination (at its boundary s= MAC), compute the mean concentration in this zone,
etc. The total mass of contaminating subatance in the entire forming stationary
region of its propagation Ms is determined by the equation
Ms = -Qwasteswaste~knon� ~17)
TI-ie stabilization of the region of propagation of contaminating substance forming
in the water body occurs over the course of a prolonged time (theoretically equal
to infinity). On a practical basis it is posaible to estimate the time after which
the relative deviation of the total mass of contaminating substance in the water
body from MS will not exceed the stipulated E value. This time ts is determined by
the equation .
ts = ln E /knon� ~18~
The computation method, nomogram and formulas (17)-(18) proposed in the article
can be used for solving practical problems.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Karaushev, A. V., "External Water Exchange and Formation of Water Quality
- in Lakes and Reservoirs," TRUDY GGI (Transactions of the State Hydrological
Institute), No 249, 1978.
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2. Karaushev, A. V., "Model and Numerical Solution of the Problem of Diffusion
in a Water Body," MATERIALY VI VSESOYUZN. SI1~. p0 SOVREMENNYM PROBLEMAM
SAMOOCHISHCHENIYA VODOYEMOV I REGULIROVANIYA KACHESTVA VODY, I SEKTSIYA
(Materials of the Sixth All-Union Symposium on Modern Problems of Self-Puri-
fication of Water Bodies and Regulation of Water Quality, Section I), Tallin,
1979. ~
3. Tikhonov, A. N. and Samarskiy, A. A., URAVNENIYA MATEMATICHESKOY FIZIKI
(Equations of Mathematical Physics), Moscow, Nauka, 1972.
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UDC 551.508.7
STANDARD INSTRUMENTS FUR MEASURING AIR HUPiIDITY AT NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian tdo 1, Jan 81 pp 108-113
[Article by V. A. Usol'tsev, Scientific Research Institute of Instrument tiaking,
manuscript received 17 Jun 80]
[Text] Abstract: A study was made of the desir.ability of
developing standard instruments~for measurin~ air
' humidity with reproduction of the composition and
properties of water vapor over plane water and ice
surfaces, as well as the composition and properties
of moist air. In particular, it is shown that in the
. reproduction of the triple point of purified.natur-
al water tlie error in reproducing the pressure of
saturated water vapor is more than 1,000 timQS less
than the error in modern working instruments for
measuring air humidity. The principle for the re-
production of standard samples of moist air set
forth in this article served as a basis for devel-
oping standard instruments at the Scientific Research
Institute of Instrument Making. This article gives
brief descriptions of static and two-t~mperature
moiat air generators. These instr~ents, constitut-
ing nonstar.dardized measurement instruments, have
undergone state certification and are used as samp-
ling devices in carrying out scientific research and
experimental design work and also in state acceptance
tests for new working instruments for measuring
humidity.
Meteorological hygrometers are intended for measuring humidity in a broad tempera-
ture range, but their metrological support in standard production does not meet
modern requirements. Hygrometers are checked only at a temperature of about 20�C
in a PO-34M hygrostat, which is obviously inadequate.
The problems involved in the metrological support of scientific research and experi-
mental design work in the development and modernization of hygrometers are still
more acute. At the present time the availability of sampling techniques and instru-
ments for making the required measurements is a decisive factor determining the de-
velopment of hygrometry.
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Now we will examine the problema relating to the creation of s.tandard instruments
intended for the testing and checking of hygrometers in the range of negative tem-
peratures. where metrological support encounters subetantial difficulties.
The system fo r testing hygrometers is still in the development stage at the State
Committee on Hydrometeorology. There is a propoeal for such a syatem [8], but its
approval is being held up due to the lack of high-accuracy standard instruments.
_ The development of standard instruments can be accomplished both in the direction
of creation of standard hygrometers or with orientation on the use of ineasurement
instruments with the reproduction of a vapor-air mixture with a normalized humid-
ity.
Repeated attempts to develop standard instruments for the purpose of increasing the
accuracy of hygrometers have not yielded positive resulte. With a decrease in tem-
perature the water vapor content in the air is sharply reduced. For this same rea-
- son it is impossible to make effective use of standard instruments for measurement
oE the graviametric apparatus type employed at the United States Bureau of Stan-
dards [14] because with ita use the measurement errnrs incresee.substantially at
temperatures below 0�C.
It is more realistic to develop measurement instrumenta with reproduction of a
vapor-air mixture with normalized humidity. The realization of this direction re-
quires having standard moist-air samples�.reproducible with a aufficiently high ac-
curacy in the entire measurement range.
There is a draft of recommendations oa the working out of a practical relative
humidity scale in the temperature range from 0 to,100�C at atmoapheric pressure
on the basis of use of aqueous saturated solutions of inorganic salts, that is,
the use of these solutions for the reproduction of standard humidity samplea.
On an international acale considerable work ha~ been do.ne on measuring equilibrium
humidity over saturated solutions of sal'ts~ but the data~obtained by di.fferent
authors have discrepanciea and there ia no international agreement on this prob-
lem. But the moat important consideration here ia that aqueous saturated solutions
of inorganic salts are difficult to use in the reproduction of standard air rela-
tive h~mmidity samples at low negative temperatures. With a temperature decrease
the equilibrium relative humidity increasea and at a eutectic temperature and be-
low it it is possible to obtain standard samplea close to 100% relative to ice. In
this case the use of "contaminated" ice instead of natural ice loses sense.
The properties of water have been investigated more fully. There is internation-
al WMU agreernent determining the formulas and constante for computing water vapor
pressure over th~ plane surfaces of water and ice as a function of temperature,
which in our opinion should be adopted as standard reference data. This is all the
more necessary because at the present time virtually all measurements of the humid-
ity of atmo~pheric air in one way or another involve the uae of data on the pres-
sure of water vapor over water (ice) as a func~tion of temperature.
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On the basis of these standard reference data it is possible to develop a testing
system and select standard samples not having the s,hortcomings enwnerated above.
I~i our opinian, standard humidity samples shou].d reproduce the composition and
- properties of water vapor, especially its pressure, over the plane surface of
water or ice with known temperature valuES of the single-component equilibrium
two-phase system "vapor + water" or "vapor + ice." As the means for reproducing
these samples it is desirable to use apparatus in which there is sufficiently
rigorous satisfaction of the conditions for reproduction of the mentioned system;
the vapor pressure in such apparatus during the reproduction of standard samples
is computed using the formulas recommended by the WMO [10], in other words, is de-
termined using the tables in [6J for system temperature. In confirmation of the de-
sirability of the proposed method for the reproduction of humidity we can mention
the following.
The most important processes responsible for the presence.of water vapor in the
air in one way or another are related to water vapor evaporation and condensation
phenomena. In turn, the transpiring of evaporation and condensation processes is
dependent on the saturation deficit E- e, where the pressure E of saturated vapor
is determined by the characteristic equation for the equilibrium of the two-phase
system "vapor + water" or "vapor + ice" E= f(T) [1], whereas vapor pressure e is
determined by the dew point T,~ , that is, e= f(T.~). Both parameters E and e.are
reproduced with a sufficiently high accuracy under laboratory conditions. It there-
fore follows that the calibration of the hygrometers should be accomplished on the
basis of the characteristic equation E~ f(T).
An equally important conclusion is that the accuracy in reproducing a vapor-air mix-
ture under laboratory conditions with an equilibrium of the phases can be consider-
ably higher than the accuracy in measuring himmidity by any measurement instrument,
especially in the range of negative temperatures, where water vapor pressure is in-
s ignifi cant .
Tables of water vapor saturation pressures over water and ice are usually used in
determining the partial pressure of water vapor in moist air on the basis of the
dew (frost) point. However, in developing a testing system it must be taken into
account that the partial pressure of water vapor in a moist gas over water (ice),
the same as over saturated solutions of salts, is dependent on the composition of
the gas, temperature and ~ts pressure. The formulas recommended by the WMO [10]
for computing the pressure of saturated vapor over water and ice are applicable
only to a single-component equilibrium two-phase system, whereas real systems are
multicomponent.
At pressurea and temperatures which are observed in the earth's atmosphere the
partial pressure of saturated water vapor in moist air differs f rom the pressure
E of saturated vapor of a single-component system with the same values by not more
than 0.5% [10].
P'rom the Clausius-Clayperon equation
~s _ (l at)= ~ E
� a E~
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where a= 0.072�C-1 in the system "vapor +~rater" and a= 0.082�C'1 tn the "vapor-
ice" system, aC = 1/273�C'l, 'G is the dew point in �C. Assuming that 6,E/E = 0.005
we find that the maximum error when using the WMO formulas for a system with
moist atmospheric air will not exceed 0.08�C of the dew point when 30�C and
U.06�C of the dew~point when 'C = 0�C.
It therefore follows that even at.the present time, when apparatus has not yet been
developed for reproducing the composition and properties of the vapor-air mixture
with an adequately high accuracy, this error, syatematic, in character, in calibra-
tion work cannot be taken into account or evaluated on the basis of theoretical
computations. In the future it will be possible to develop apparatus for reproduc-
ing the composition and properties of water vapor in a single-component equil-
ibrium Cwo-phase system and then by meane of a sensitive and adequately stable in-
strument there will be a possibility for experimental determination and allowance
for the mentioned systematic error. .
In order to reproduce standard humidity samplea it is neceasary to use water with
a definite isotopic compoaition, for example, purified natural water. One of the
indices of the suitability of water can be the reproducibility of the temperature
of its triple point of the melting point of ice. The disc~epancy between the
temperatures of the triple points of ocean and ordinary continental eurface water
is abo~~ 4�10'S �C. The maximum discrepancy in the temperatures of the triple
points of purified natural water ia 2.5�10'4 �C [7]. It is usually assumed that the
error in reproducing the triple point temperature of purified natural water is
1�10-4 �C [9]. And this means that at a temperature of 0.01�C the dew point can be
reproduced with the same error.
At a temperature of 0.01�C the preasure of saturated.water vapor is. 611.14 Pa [6]
but with a change in the dew point by 1�10"4 �C the water vapor pressure changes
by 0.0044 Pa. Accordingly, with the use of purified natural water at the triple
point it is poseible to reproduce water vapor preasure with an error of 0.0044 Pa,
which is 7.2�10'4% of the preasure of saturated water vapor at a temperature of
0.01�C. This error is more than 1000 times lesa than the error of mode;rn working
instr~enta for measuring air humidity. evidence of the possibility of using pur-
ified natural water for the reproduction of atandard humidity samples in etandard
high-accuracy instruments.
With respect to the melting'point of ice~ it is a very close approximation to the
temperature determined as a temperature 0.01�C below the triple point of water
[7]. Accordingly, in standard measurement instruments having an error greater than
0.05�C of the dew point and operating on the principle of dynamic equilibrium of
moist air with a water vapor condensate the considered error can be neglected.
The described principle for the reproduction of moist air eamplea was used in de-
veloping apparatus necessary in the metrological support of scientific reaearch
and experimental deaign work for the development of hygrometers (senaore) at the
Scientific Research Institute of Instrument Making. Nonatandard measurement instru-
ments have been developed, fabricated and certified: a static generator of moist air
and a two-temperature moist-air generator [12, 13]. With reapect to metrological
characteristics the mentioned generators correspond to "second-order" measurement
instruments in conformity to the Socialist Economic Bloc recommendationa RS Z118-71.
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Static Moist Air Generator
1'tie static generator makes use of the dyna.mic equilibrium of water vapor over the
surface of water (ice), in a closed thermostated space containing water (ice) mak~
ing it possible to create cunstant air humidities near 100X.
Apparatus operating on this principle is known. As the dew point use is made of the
air temperature [4). However, in such apparatus the total saturation condition can-
not be rigorously satisfied since the mixing of air is necessary and this leads to
an increase in its temperature. In most cases the tested instrwnent also releases
heat. When there is a heat flow from the air to the chamber walls the internal sur-
faces of the chamber walls, the condensate on them and the chamber air will have
different temperatures. The air temperature will be higher than the condensate tem~-
perature, the relative humidity will be less than 100~, but the dew (frost) point
wi11 not be equal to the air temperature. A subatantial error can arise as a re-
sult of this.
In order to eliminate this error in the static generator [11] on the coldest part
of the wall within the working chamber there was installation of a thin polished
metal plate, one part of which (a smal'1 mirror) is curved at a small angle and is
present in the air, whereas the other part has a thermal contact with the wall. A ~
metal disk in the form of a radiator is attached on the outer surface of this part
of the wall in order to reduce its temperature. This unit in essence is a dew-point
hygrometer. '
The working chamber, that is, the chamber in which the instruments to be tested
are placed, in the course of thermostating is moistened and a condensate zaith a
fixed boundary is created on the surface of the small mirror. There is a clear tem-
perature gradient on the small mirror along the plate (the base ot the small mir-
ror is colder than its end by tenths of a degree) and therefore it is possible to
= create such conditions that the temperature of the base of the amall mirror will .
be below the dew (frost) point and the temperature of the end will be above the
dew (frost) point.
With the presence of such a fixed boundary the temperature of the condensate on it
is measured. Such a device and measurement method make poasible the complete exclu-
sion of the error arising due to noncorrespondence of air temperature to the tenr
perature of the condensate. The presence of a fixed condensate boundary is evidence
of its dynamic equilibrium on the boundary ~rith the water vapor in the working
chamber. With this condition the temperature of i:he condensate at its boundary will
be equal to the dew (frost) point.
With temperatures of the small mirror below 0�C an error ca.n arise due to an incor-
rect determination of the phase state of the condensate. In order to exclude the
possibility of appearance of this error measurements at negative temperatures are
made only after a condensate is formed on the small mirror in the form of small ice
crystals of an acicular structure which with a change in the angle of illumination
is readily distinguished from its external appearance from a condensate consisting
of dropleCs of aupercooled water. A special method has been developed for obtain-
ing a condensate in the form of small ice crystals with an acicular structure [12].
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In the develop~nent of the generator use was made of an evaluation of the errors
~risinK as a result of the influence of curvature of the elements of the conden-
sate on the small mirror and contamination of the surface of the Small. mirror.
Thes~ particular errors are insignificant. It was demonstrated in [12] that with
adherence to the generator operating regime they can be neglected and that the
error in measuring humidity in the working chamber is determined by the error in
determining temperature t,~ of the condensate at its boundary on the small mirror.
Temperature t.~ is determined on the basis of the results of ineasuring air temper-
ature t in the working chamber, the temperature difference Q 1 between the ther-
~mometer bulb and the center of the small mirror plate and the temperature differ-
ence a 2 on the small mirror plate between two points situated symmetrically rela-
tive to the center of the small mirror plate in the limits of the zone of possible
positioning of the bvundary of the condensate.
In measuring air temperature use was made of an M-34 aspiration psychrometer in
which the electric rnotor fabricated by the Safonovskiy Plant has been replaced by
a DPM-25-N1-02 electric motor which creates a heat flow not greater than 2 W, that
is, 5.5 times less than the heat flow of the electric m4tor in the M-34 psychro-
meter. The temperature~difference wae measured using differential thermocouples
and an instrument with a measurement range from 0 to SO~I.V.
Temperature is computed using the formula
. . t--`=,~1+.T~I .
where t is the temperature according to the thermometer of the aepiration psychro-
meter, read ueing a telescope mounted outeide the climatic chamber: ~1 ia the tem-
perature difference according to the main thermocouple; Q2 ie the temperature dif-
ference according to the auxiliary thermocouple; L is the distance on the small
mirror between the 3unctions of the suxiliary thermocouple; n is the distance from
the ~unction of the main thermocouple on the small mirror to the boundary of the
condensate.
In order to shorten the time of moistening of the working chamber it contains a
moistener, a fabric wetted with water, heated during moistening of the chamber
by an electric current. The heating of the moiatener makes it posaible in a short
time interval to intr.oduce into the chamber the neceaeary quantity of water vapor,
part of which is sorbed on the walls of the~apparatus and another part of which ia
- expended on the forination of a condensate on the chamber walls and on the small
mirror.
The thermostating of the working chamber is accomplished in the 3001 GDR climatic
chamher. The climatic chamber is supplied with a apeeial heat regulator with a
contact mercury thermometer j5] and makes posaihle the sutomatic maintenance of
constant stipulated air temperature values in the working chamber of the generator
with deviations not greater than f0.03�C.
The static moist-air generator ensures the reproduction of the dew point at an at-
mosph~ric pressure from -30 to -6� and from 0 to +5�C. The absolute error in re-
producing the dew point is f0.2�C; the absolute error in such measurements of
air temperature in the working chamber is f0.1�C; the volume of the working cham-
ber is 150 liters.
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Un the basis of the described generator it is possible to develop a standard meas-
urement instrument w~ith an absolute error in reproducing the dew point of about
0.05�C. A substantial decrease in.the error can be atta~ned by use of a standard
resietance thermometer for measuring air temperature and more careful calibratio~t of
the thermocouples.
Two-Temperature Moist Air Generator
The two-temperature generator consists of three principal units: a"Polyus-1" stan-
dard generator with a dessicator and moistener, working chamber, thermostated in a
3001 climatic chamber, and a measuring support.
Air humidity in the working chamber is determined from dew point values set by the
"Polyus-1" generator and air temperature in the working chamber.
The "Polyus-1" standard generator j2, 3] is 3.ntended for the checking of hygro-
meters and also for other purposes requiring the creation and maintenance fixed
dew (frost) point values in the flow of air or nitrogen. The working range of fix-
ed dew point values at the generator output is from -60 to (t-5)�C, where t is air
temperature in the enclosed space. The absolute error of this generator does not
exceed t0.2�C of the dew point.
The air from the standard "Polyus-1" ger~~~ator is fed through a metal pipeline into
+ the working chamber through a ventilator-mixer. The air emerges from an annular
collector of the ventilator-mixer in thin 3ets which are broken up by an air flow
- from a bladed disk. This makes it possible, without using a heat exchanger with an
intricate surface, to obtain an adequately uniform temperature field with an air
temperature in the pipeline differing from the air temperature in the working
chamber.
The bladed disk of the ventilator-mixer also a~complishes mixing of the air in the
w~rking chamber; the rotati.ng disk with the blades sucks the air into its central
part and then expels it. Then the air flaws out primarily along the wa11s of the
working chamber and thus there is adequately effective mixing, precluding the ap-
pearance in the working chamber of zones of stagnant air. The electric motor of
the ventilator-mixer :.s situated outside the working chamber.
The air is fed from the working chamber into a valve intended for converting the
open system communicating with the external air into a closed system. Then there
is a discharge stimulator (a pump with an airtight housing) and a preparation
valve. The preparation valve makes it possible, using a moistener and dessicator,
on the basts of readings of the hygrometer-indicator placed at the input of the
"Polyua-1" generator, to brins the air humidity to the dew point, 5-20�C higher
than the normaliaed value set by the generator. With a dew point below -15�C
the work is accomplished with a closed system without the monitoring of humidity
at the input to the "Polyus-1" generatox and without drying or moistening of the
air entering into the "Polyus-1" generator.
The air discharge through the "Polyus-1" generator can be set from 10 to 40 liters/
m. At the same time air pressure is measured in the "Polyus-1" generator. The meas-
urement results are used with the introduction of corrections if the pressure
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difference in the "Polyus-1" generator and in the ~aorking volume exceeds 15 gPa.
The normalized air dew point value at the output of the "Polyus-1" generator is
determined using the standard resistance thermometer of the "Polyus-1" generator
and ~n R363-3 d-c potentiometer.
With the operation of the generator an excess pressure of not less than 50 Pa is
created in its working chamber, which impedes the penetration of external air into
the working chamber in the case of formation of a microflow in it. The excess
pressure is determined using the manometer on the working chamber.
In the working chamber there is a second hygrometer-indicator which is an auxil-
_ iary means for monitoring the stability of h~nidity and also three differential
thermocouples for increasing the accuracy in determining temperature in the zones
of placement of the sensing elements during the testing of relative htunidity hy-
grometers. The measurement of sir temperature in the working chamber is accomplish-
ed using an aspiration psychrometer in which a DPM-25-N1-02 electric motor has
been installed, and a telescope. An N391-1 outfit is used in measuring the temf
of the differential thermocouples and the resistance of the thermoelement of the
hygrometer-indicator.
The two-temperature generator enaures the reproduction of the following in its work-
ing chamber at tem}~eratures from -25 to (t - 4)�C:
relative humidity from 10 to SO% at positive temperatures and from 20 to 90% rel-
ative humidity relative to ice at negative temperatures; .
dew point from -45 to (t - 5)�C with the above~mentioned relative humidity val-
ues, where t is the temperature in the enclosed space.
The absolute error in determining relative humidity ia not more than f2% and for the
dew point not more than t0.2�C. The useful volume of the working chamber is 12.5
liters.
In the measurements there must be aseurance that there ia no condeneate in the work-
ing chamber. Accordingly, it is inadmiasible that there be even a brief increase
~ in relative humidity in�the chamber above 903~. For thia same reseon in the prepara-
tion of the generator for operation the working chamber ia dried out. For teating
hygrometers at a humidity exceeding 90% proviaion is made for use of a atatic gen-
erator.
The author expresses appreciation to G. S. Parahin, G. B. Avrushenko and G. S. Ger-
shenzon for participation in discuasion of the article and problems related to the
choice of standard air humidity samplea.
S utmnary
The results provide a basis for constructing standard instruments and for develop-
ing a testing system at the level of modern requirements for instruments for meas-
uring sir humidity (hygrometers).
This is a further step on the path to improving the metrological support of ineas-
urements of the humidity of atmospheric sir, the development of hygrometera and
the improvem~ent of ineasurement methods.
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The standard instrur?ents described in the article, existing at tlie Scientific
Research institute of Instrument Making, made it possible to complete the devel-
opment of new air humidity measurement instruments and carry out their state ac-
ceptance tests.
Thc experience accumulated in work with these standard instruments confirmed their
high metrological characteristics, but such instruments are relatively complex, suit-
able for use only at base organizations and at factories making hygrometers, that
is, in places where it is necessary to check the metrological characteristics of
instruments in the entire working range of negative temperatures and carry out re-
search work.
In order to check hygrometers during their operation, especially for outfitting the
testing bureaus of the administrations of the Hydrometeorological Service of the
State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental M~onitoring, there is a need
for less complex standard instruments, for whose development the results provide
practical possibilities.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Belinskiy, V. A., DINAMICHESKAYA METEOROLOGII (Dynamic Meteorology), Moscow-
Leningrad, Gostekhizdat, 1948.
2. Gershkovich, Ye. A. and Gershkovich, S. N., "Complex of Standard and Testing
Instruments for Investigating, Certification and Industrial Output of Hygro-
meters," IZMERITEL'NAYA TEKHNIKA (Measurement Instrumentation), No 12, 1977.
3. Gershkovich, Ye. A., Kolyshev, I. D., Kachkanishvili, L. D., Karshin, A. I.
and Merkulov, A. P., Author's Certificate, "Device for Testing and Calibrat-
ing Hygrometers," BYULL. IZOBRETENIY (Bulletin of Inventions), A. C. 375610
(USSR), No 16, 1973.
4. Zayts ev, V. A. , Ledokhovich, A. A. and Nikandrova, G. T. , VLAZI~TOST' VOZDtTKIIA
I YEYE IZMERENIYE (Air Humidity and Its Measurement), Leningrad, Gidrometeo-
izdat, 1974.
5. Mandrakhlebov, V. F., ISSLEDOVANIYE I RAZRABOTKA SOLEVYKH GENERATOROV VLAZH-
NOGO VOZDUKHA (Investigation and Development of Salt Generators of Air Himnid-
ity), Candidate's Dissertation, MIKhMI, 1974.
6. Matveyev, L. G. and Bykova, L. P., "Tables of Values of Elasticity of Satura-
tion of Water Vapor Over Water and Ice," TRUDY GGO (Transactions of the Main
Geophysical Observatory), No 202, 1967.
7. MEZHDUNARODNAYA PRAKTICHESKAYA TEMPERATURNAYA SHKALA 1968 g(MPTSh-68) (Inter-
national Practical Temperature Scale (MPTSh-68)), Moscow, Izd-vo standartov,
1976.
8. Reznikov, G. P. and Fateyev, N. P., "Reproduction and Transmission of the
_ Dimensionality of Air Humidity Units in Meteorological Measurements," TRUDY
GGO, No 340, 1974.
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9. Sasnovskiy, A. G. and Stolyarov, N. I., IZMERENIYE TEMPERATUR (Temperature
Measurement), Moscow~ Izd-vo Komiteta s.tandartov, mer i izmeritel~nykh pri-
borov, 1970.
10. TEKHNICHESKIY REGLAMENT. T. I(OBSHCHAYA CHAST~) (Technical Regulations. Vo1
I(General Part)), WMO, No 49, OD2, second edition, Geneva, 1959, and supple-
ment No 2, Geneva, 1963.
11. Usol'tsev, V. A., Yeremeyev, S. K. and Kuznetsova, L. I., "Method for Obtain-
ing a Vapor-Air Mixture With Norm,alized Dew Point Values," Author~s Certif-
icate USSR No 648929, BYULL. I'LOBRETENIY, No 7, 1979.
12. Usol'tsev, V. A., Yeremeyev, S. K. and Ntkolayeva, L. K., "Static Moist Air
Generator," TRUDY NII GI~ (Transactions of the Scientific Research Institute
of Hydrometeorological Instrument Ma.king), No 38, 1979.
13. Usai'tsev, V. A., Yeremeyev, S. K. and Nikolayeva, L. K., Two-Temperature
Moist Air Generator, TRUDY NIIP (Transactions of the Scientific Research In-
stitute of Instrument Making), No 40 (in press), 1980.
14. Wexler, A. and Hyland, R. W., "The NBS Standard Hygrometer," HUtZIDITY AND
MOISTURE, New York, Reinhold Publish3ng Corp., Vol III, 1965.~
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UDC 551.509.1:681.3.06
AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF PROGRAMS FOR THE DECODING UF P'IETEOROLOGICAL SU~ARIES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 113-116 .
jArticle by S. L. Rudenko and A. Yu. Solomakhov, USSR Hydrometeorological Scientific
Research Center, manuscript received 8 Jul 80]
[Text] Ahstract: A new method is proposed for prepar-
ing programs for the decoding of ineteorolog-
ical telegrams. A specialized language is de-
scribed which.is applied using a macroproces-
sor designed for this purpose.
Meteorological data are received at the data processing centers of the World Weather
Service in the form of coded telegrams. The processing of this information on dig-
ital computers requires programs for the decoding of telegrams. At the present time
rhere are a great numb er of different coded forms (about 100) [3] and their number
can increase. In addition, the coded forms can change. At the same time it is
known that the writing of decoding programs is a time-consuming process. According-
ly, i.t is extremely desirable to have means for facilitating this work.
- The process of decoding of ineteorological telegrams can b~e broken down into two
stages. The first is in the ~elegram, which gives the value (it can be coded) of
the necessary meteorological element, and the second stage is its decoding, which
= frequently involves very simple operations.
However, knowing the structure of the telegrams it is possible to create a special-
ized language for decoding. It is convenient to regard it as a"macrolanguage" [1,
2] because this also,makes it possible to use all the means of the basic language.
We created such a language and a corresponding specialized macroprocessor for
FORTRAN, which ia also an application of FORTRAN programming, which facilitates
the transfer from computer to computer not only of the macroprocessor unit, but also
the programs generated by it.
The macroprocessor scans the text which is fed to it, which consists of FORTRAN
operators and decoding operators. In the processing of the latter there is genera-
tion of some sequence of FORTRAN operators incorporated in the initial text.
The FORTRAN operators of the initial text are not processed by the macroprocessor.
The resulting program�can be dispatched for compilation, editing and execution.
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(W~ wil.l use tlie term "decoding language operator" instead of the more precise
"macrocommand" because thia hetter conveys: the purpose of the proposed language.)
Tfie lines of the blank (punch eard) in which the decoding language proposals are
~~laced are set off by the symbols C+ in the first two poaitions. A marker can be
placed in the next three pos~tions. The language operators, placed on one line,
are separated by a semicolon.
The language user must adhere to some spe~cial conventions when writ3ng programs.
For example, the text of the telegram to be processed must be in the data complex
TEXT. The marker M must indicate tha,t byte of this data complex from which it is
proposed that the processing begin. The use of the identifiers.NE, I00000, M00000
is disallowed, other than the marker 77777. The use of this marker, as well as the
TOBE and LENGTH blocks will be described below. ,
- In the decoding language there are 6 operators, 2 of which are means for the con-
trol of printout:
I. llescriFtion operator.
II. Obligatory group operator.
III. Nonobligatory group operator.
IV. Checking operator.
Va Print-out suppression operator.
VI. Begin print-out operator.
' Now we will describe these operators.
I. Description operator. This operator has the form C+DCP (in the first five poai-
tions). It must be present in each program containing the decoding langua.ge opera-
tors and be placed before the first applied Fortraa operator and the decoding lang-
uage operators, other than the print-out control oper.ators. In processing the de-
scription operator the macroprocesaor.does not generate any applicable Fortran oper-
ators. ~ ~
II. Obligatory group operator. The simpleat form of this operator can be written in
the followin~ form:
= tFIGURE>
< DESCRIPTOR> < FORTBL>
< FIGURE 1 I 2 I 3 I"4 I 5 I 6( 7 I 8 ~ 9
= INID~T ~1)
The syntax of < FORTBLy and the action of the operator are described separately for
each of the three types of < DESCRIPTOR 1.
~ a) Descriptor N
< FORTBL > = Fortran identifier.
As a result of application of the operator in the.block with the designation
there will be a value of a number present in the~text of a telegram, beginning from
the place indicated by the marker M and with a length determined by < FIGURE in
the form INTEGER or REAL (dependtng on how the block is described). If in the indi-
cated positions there are no figures, the block contains the value -9999. In both
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cases the marker is. increased by the value < k'IGURE~ .
[Note: ThetE~rrn "aPplication" is as inexact as the term "operator." The program is
"applied" in a computer language, obtained after compilation of the generated
1~URTRAN operators. However, as a simplificaCion in the exposition we will hence-
forth say that the decoding language operators are "applied."]
~xample 1.
As.sume that the telegram marker and text are as follows:
....6753A8...
T
M = 13
Then after applying the command 1NJ tn the block J there will be the number 7 and
the marker becomes equal to 14.
IF the operator 2NRAB is applied in this same situation, in RAB there will be 75,
marker = 15.
After the operator SNABC the value ABC =-9999.,
rt=1s.
In all the examples we will assume that the types of blo~ks are implicitly deter-
mined.
b) Descriptor D
_ < LETTER> = one of the 26 letters of the Latin alphabet
= Fortran identtfier.
The action of an operator with this descriptor differs from the preceding case in
that the transformed value serves as the actual parameter when coneulting the sub-
program with the designation < FORTSP The output parameter of this subprogram
~s the block < FORTBL> . The user must write the corresponding subprogram with two
parameters: first input, second output.
Example 2.
Ass.ume that the marker and the text of the telegram are the same as in example 1.
1'hen, with application of the operator 3DISUBR there will be consultation of the
subprogram SBUR with the value 753 as the input parameter. The result will be
placed in the block I3UBR.
c) Descriptor T.
< FORTBL> : : = Fortran identifier.
In this case in a< FORTBL> block there will be an untransformed text with positions
determined by the momentary position of the marker and .
Frequently it will be convenient to place a value in an element of the data mass.
In this cas.e < FORTBL> = a FORTRAN variable with an index. For example, 3DISUB
(1, M~T). Then the necessary value is placed in an element of the data mass ISUB
(l, MET). (In this case the name of the subprogram is SUB).
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In those cases when the decoding of the element is quite simple (it is necessary
. to divide hy 1Q, multiply ~y 3, 5, etc.) it is infeasihle to consult the subpro-
;ram. Sucfi decoding can he accomplished using the decoding language. For this pur-
pose it is possihle to use an oFiligatory group operator, described by the rules
(1) t~ith the aupplementation:
: : _
< FORTBL> < SIGN>
< OPERAND 7
: : _ + I- I* ( /
~OPERANB ~::Fortran identifier ~ number in the form INTEGER or REAL.
Example 3
The marker and text of the telegram are the same as in example 1.
a) 2NI10*33.
In block 110 there is the numher 75*33.
b) 2DRDEC (10, J, L)+AGBC.
The element of the data mass RDEC (10, J, L) will be equal to the sum of the reeult
of application of the subprogram DEC with.the input parameter 75 and the number
AGBC.
III. Nonobligatory group operator
_ KEY> ) ( ,
< LIST = list of operators of the obligatory group, separated by commas,
< KEY = any set of symb.ols not containing perioda, parenthesea, comma and aemi-
colon
- . . = FORTRAN identifiez ~number in the form INTEGER
: : _ < LENGTEI~ .
41ith application of this operator the following occurs.
The symhols in the telegram, beginning with the poaition indicated by the marker
are checked for coincidence with the key. If < KEY > is a textual ].iteral not con-
taining periods, it is assumed that the k~y is explicitly incorportated in < KEY
However, if the key has the form LENGTH, there is shifting to the marker 77777. This op-
erator is conveniently used for checking at the end of the telegram.
V. Print-out suppression operator. The operator has the form C+1. 1'hese symbols must
be in the first three positions in the line.
With the appearance of this operator the printout of the FORTRAN elements generated
by the macroprocessor ceases.
VI. Begin print-out operator. The operator has the form C+ O(in the first three
positions).
This operator cancels the action of the preceding operator.
All the generated elements are printed out prior to appearance of the first print-
out control operator.
The proposed language substantially facilitates the process of writing of decoding
programs. There is a considerable decrease in the volume of the initial program
and the time required for its writing. This considerably increases the programmer's
work efficiency.
A~ an example we will give a program for decoding the code FM-14V SYNOP [3].
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-
� SUEiROUTINE FM14 ~
'(TEXT, M, LGNGTH, IU 1 L)
C+DCP
C+! ~
C+ ( INISTIL; 1NIR1L;
- C+ iNRNIH; 1NV1H; IDRHIL;
RN1=RN1H' 1.26,
CALL FM2408
* (TEXT, M, LENGTH, IUIL)
RETURN
END
SUBROUTINE FM2408
+(TEXT, M, LENGTH, IUIL)
� C+DCP
C+!
TZ=0.514
IF (MOD(IU1L, 2). EQ. 0)
'1"L=1.0
C+ ( (0, 2NRD2L*!0,
2NRl'2L"'TZ);
C+ ~
C+ ( (1.2NIWPLL, 2NIW2H);
C + C); ( .
C+ (2, 1NISNIL, 3NRT3H*10); O;
C + (
C+ (3, 1NJSNIL, 3NRTD3H'10); O~
' C + ( ~
C+ (4, 4NRP04H); ( (b,
C+ 4NRP4H1; (
C.+ (6, INIAIPLL, 3NRPV3L); C;
17. ~3URR3H. INiTRIL); ; ( )
C+ (S, 1NINHIN'1.25, INICLIH,
'1NICMIH, INICHIN ;
tF (ISNIt,. EQ. 1) R 3H
* m-RT3H
1P (JSN1L. EQ. 1) RTD3H
* ~-RTD3H
IF (RP04H. NE. -9999. AND,
* RP04H. LT. l000)
* RP04H~RP04H+10000.
IF~ (RP4H. NE.-9999. AND.
" " RP4H. LT. 1000)
' ' RP4H=RP4H+10000.
77777 RETURN
END
The suthors express appreciation to Yu. L. Shmel'kina for formulating the problem
and assistance in the course of the work.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Braun, P., MAKROPROTSESSORY I MOBIL'NOST' PROGRAA4a10G0 OBESPECHENIYA (Macro-
proceseors and Mobilization of Programmed Support), Moscow, Mir, 1977.
2. Campbell-Kelly, M., WEDENIYE V MAKROSY (Introduction to Macros), Moscow, Sov-
etskoye Radio, 1978.
3. NASTAVLENIYE PO KODAM (Instructions on Codes), WMO, No 306, Vol I, Geneva, 1974.
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UDC 551.509.51(477)
~XP~RIENCE IN APPLICATION OF A COMPLER WORK QUALITY CONTROL SYSTEM AT TH~
AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS OF TIiE UKItAIPtIAN ADMINISTRATION OF
HYDROMETEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 117-119 ~
[Article by N. P. Skripnik, head of the Ukrainian Republic Administration of Hy-
drometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, manuscript received 27 May 80]
[Text] Abstract: The article describes 18-nonth experience
with the introduction of a complex work quality
control system at the aviation meteorological sta-
tions of the Ukrainian Administration of H.ydrometeor-
ology and Environmental Monitoring.
In solving the problems involved in the further raising of the material and cul-
tural life of the Soviet people formulated by the 25th CPSU Congress, a factor
c~f great importanc~ is the systema.tic and undeviating increase in the effective-
ness of production and the quality of work in all branches of the national econ-
omy .
Among the means and work methods directed to solution of the key problems of the
Tenth Five-Year Plan we should include the complex worlc quality control system
created through the initiative and experience of workers in leading units of the
Ukrainian Administration of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Mo~itorin~.
The necessity for a substantial improvement in work quality ~in the service is felt
acutely particularly at aviation meteorological stations engaged in meteorological
support of flights of civil aviation, whose requirements for meteorological sup-
port are constantly increasing. It is natural that the experience of the leading
industrial and transportation enterprises of the country and the recommenda~ions
of the Central Committee CPSU on quality control problems have found response and
have been caught up by the workers of the Ukrainian Administration of Hydrometeor-
ology and Environmental Monitoring responsible for and dedicated to the meteorolog-
ic:al support of civil aviation.
The fundamental principles and criteria for the complex system of work quality
control, the formulas for eval:uations and the quality standards were developed
in such a way that they stimulated: ,
the scientific organization of labor;
the introduction into work and the use, on a large scale, of the latest technic--
al advances in observations, information and com~unication;
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more complete computational validation of the forecasts and warnings which are
issued;
more active work of rationalizers and inventors;
exchange of leading experience;
development of instructional work, creative initiative, activation and improve-
ment of forma of socialist competition;
creation of mr~re favorable working conditions with respect to work hygiene and
moral aspects, etc.;
more rational use of working time and successful implementation of production
plans.
The basis for the development of evaluation principles was the use of formulas and
coefficients of fault-free work which have come into wide use.
The principal formula for the evaluation of work quality is
Kq~l = 1 - ~ Kdec + ~ Kinc~
where Kqual is the work quality coefficient; 1 ia the evaluation of fault-free
work; ~ K deC is the sum of the coefficiente of decrease in the evaluation of
work quality during a definite period; ~ ~ is the aum of coefficienta of in-
crease in the evaluation of work during th~e same period:
The decrease and increase in the evaluation of work quality are determined employing
special atandards (coefficieats), on the one hand takiag into accoimt the ehortcom-
ings, omissions and errors in work, and on the other hand, the positive results and
attainments exceeding the established norms and requirementa on the work done. Al1
the workers at the aviation meteorological stations (forecasters, meteorological
observers,~communicationa specialists, aerologists, specialista on ne~w equipment,
workers with meteorological radars, etc.) have their own particular atandards (co-
efficients) of decrease and increase in the evaluatioa of work quality for a shift
and a month, making possible a differentiated evaluation for all aspects and impo r~
tant componente in the work of each person. Standarde were also formulated for
~:valuating the quality of work separatelq for all groups at aviation meteorolog-
ical stations, for group leadera and the entire work force of aviation meteorolog-
ical stations during a moath.
In accordance with the "Instructiona on the Complex Work Quality Control System at
Aviation Meteorological Stations," the evaluation of the work of each worker is
made in three steps:
1) daily, by one another, and by the shift supervisor (duty officer);
2) each 3-5 days by the group supervisor together with the trade union group organ-
izer;
- 3) each 10 days by the chief of the aviation meteorological station and the chair-
man of Che local committee or ahop committee.
In order to publicize the resulta and for moral atimulation the evaluations for all
workers and duty periods and for the month are posted on a apecial bulletin board.
In accordance with the "Instructiona on the Complex Work Quality Control Syatem,"
when a worker at an aviation meteorological station or in a group in a month meeta
~ the conditions for the award of a prize, as established in the "Inetructions on the
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Awarding of Prizes to Workers in Network Suladivis.ions of.the Ukrainian Administra-
tion of the Hydrometeorological Service," tfie aize of the prize is determined in
dependence on the v,alue of the quality coefficient for his work during the month
~Kqual month~ in the following way:
if Kqu~l month ~ 1 the prize is reckoned at 15% of the base pay;
if 0.99> Kqual month~ 0~90 the prize is in the s~ of 10% of the base pay;
if 0.89> Kq~l mc~ nth~ 0.80 the prize is in the sum of 5% of the base pay;
if Kqual month~ U�~9 no prize is awarded.
At the Ukrainian Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service work on the cre-
ation of a complex work quality control system was initiated in 1977. After appro-
priate elaboration during routine work in the network of aviation meteorological
stations it was introduced beginning in October 1978.
The experience in routine introduction of the complex work quality control system
has now made it possible to clarify the degree and mechanism of its effect on work
quality. Our analysis of materials from the complex system has revealed the follow-
ing:
First, the introduction of a complex work quality control system exerted a great
- positive effect on the quality of all important aspects of operation of aviation
meteorological stations, in particular:
a higher quality was attained in the finalization of ineteorological and opera-
tional documentation; there was a decrease in the number of errors in making avia-
tion meteorological observations by mpre than half (by 60-70%);
there was a considerable improvement in the quality of processing of aerosynop-
tic material and almost a twofold decrease in the nimmber of errors in its analysis;
there was a decrease in the number of interrupted flights and landings of air-
craft at alternative airports due to incorrect forecasts or other shortcomings in
the meteorological support of flights due to shortcomings of workers at aviation
meteorological stations;
as a result of the more regular use of computational methods under complex
meteorological conditions there was some improvement in the quality of aviation
weather forecasts;
there has been almost complete exclusion of cases of deviation from terminol-
ogy and NMO GA-73 requirements, as we11 as the malfunctioning of ineteorological in-
struments and equipment due to shortcomings of workers at aviation meteorological
stations;
there has been an increase in the quality of the various kinds of ineteorolog-
ical information received by flight personnel in meteorological briefings; the
number of delays in the relaying of ineteorological information has been reduced
to a minimum;
there has been an increase in the competence of workers and their dedication to
duty, as well as an improvement in the,interrelationships with airport services.
Second, the basis for the positive effect of the complex work quality control sys-
tem is attributable primarily to the following:
a constant, daily, complete and ob~ective monitoring and evaluation of the work
c~f each worker in all aspects of his productive activity, taking into account not
only errors and omissions in work, hut also his po3itive results and achievements
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which earlier had not always been noted or were taken into account incompletely;
obtaining objective quantitative evaluations of the work of each worker, the
group and the entire work force, which are easily comparable and make it possible
to determine the contribution of each worker and the group as a whole in the work
- of the organization;
proper material stimulation, developing creative initiative and increasing the
interest of each worker in fault-free ~ork, the implementation of socialist obliga--
tions and production plans.
Third, the complex woric quality control system exerts a controlling effect, that
is: the constant analysis of the quality of work of individual workers and groups
as a whole enables the administration and social organizations to concentrate at-
tention on the "bottlenecks," as well as to carry out necessary measures directed
to improvement of the work of both individual workers and the entire work force
(instruction and shifting of peraonnel, as~istance to those working below the
standards, creation of the necessary working conditiona, introduction of improved
~ work organization, etc.).
. Fourth, the moat positive effect from the routine introduction of the complex work
quality control system with relatively amall expenditurea af working time hae been
registered at those aviation meteorological stations where the chiefs and group
supervisors have dealt seriously and responsibly with the introduction of the com-
plex system and have constantly monitored it~ devoting proper attention to it,
where they have clearly though.t out and perfected the order for regular daily and
two-level monitoring, evaluation and consideration of all the important stages in
work in all groups (shifts, work periods), taking into account their specific cir-
cumetances and personnel resources, where the summarization of the results of
work of individual workers and groups during the month. with determination of the
winners of the socialist competition, is accomplished with extensive publicity on
- "quality days" and there is appropriate determtnation of ineaaures for moral and
material approval.
Fifth, the considerable number of prapoaals received at the administrations of the
Hydrometeorological Service from many aviation meteorological stations for the im-
provement of the complex work quality control system~ enlargement of the table of
quality standards, supplementatfon of these with a section taking into account pro-
duction discipline, social behavior of workera, etc. indicate, on the one hand,
that the problems involved in work quality control..are important and urgent, that
serious attention is being devoted to them at many aviation meteorological ata-
" tions and that constant thought is given to them~ and on the other hand, that the
possibilities of improning the complex system have not been completely exhausted
and that the administrations of the Hydrometeorologica,l Service have definite work
to do along these lines.
In conclusion we consider it necessary to emphasize once again that the complex
work quality control system involves a wide range of organizational, methodolog-
ical and economic measures which make possible a eystematic increaee in the qual-
ity of work and its maintenance at a hi.gh level and the aucceasful impletnentation
of the major and responsible zaska of ineteorological support of Civil Aviation
assip,ned to the aviation meteorological stationa.
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F.EVIEW OF BOOK 'COMPUTATIONS OF RUNOFF OF P.IVERS AND INTERMITTENT WATERCOURSES'
(RASCHETY STOKA REK I VREMENNYKA VODOTOKOV), IZD-VO VORONEZHSKOGO UNIVERSITETA,
1979, 200 PAGES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 120-121
jReview by G. A. Alekseyev, professor]
[Text] This book was prepared in the Department of Hydrology of the Land at Voro-
i~ezh University by a group of authors under the direction of Professor A. G. Kur-
clov.
In the foreword it is stated that the first part of the book (Chapters 1-3), being
of scientific interest, is devoted to the theoretical principles for computation
of the norms of runoff of intermittent watercourses, permanent and seasonal rivers,
and the development of new methods. The second part (six chapters) is of practical
importance. It makes use of reconmaendations on the application of the proposed
methods for computing all categories of runoff [the reviewer stresses th3s] for
individual regions of our country and gives examples of computations.
Chapter 1 gives 55 scientific equa.tions for the water balance of rivers and inter-
mittent watercourses (1.1)-(1.55) for the periods of formation of low (minimum),
liigh (maximum) and mean annua.l runoff, and also for suspended sediments and matter
dissolved in water. These equations include components which for all practical pur-
}~oses cannot be determined. For example, for spring runoff the mean channel water
discharge during high water is _
QsPr = (X' _ p" _ Z)SZspr�lp3 (1.20)
and the runoff volume is
WSpr = QSPrTsPr, (1.21)
where ~ spr is the "mean surface area (km2) at high water in the entire inter-
mittent network situated in the area of the drainage basin F~." Tspr is the "mean
duration of spring high water of an intermittent watercourse," Xt 3s the mean
intensity of water supply (lateral inflow and precipitation) per unit area of the
water surface, P" is the mean intensity of filtering of water along the moistened
j~erimeter of the channel flow, Z is the mean intensity of evaporation from the
water surface.
At the end of Chapter 1(~~4) there are 55 purely s~~mbolic correlation equations
- (1.56)-(1.110) for makin~ corrections (A Q= Q- Q, L1 W= W- W) to the mean
regional runoff values (Q, W), averaged for the obaervation period, as a function
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uf the "anomaloua (to be more precise, azonal editor's note) physiographic fac-
tors in the drainage basin and human activity."
However, subsequently (Chapters 2-9), instead of the 110 "theoretical" equations
(1.1)-(1.110) use is made of the empirical relationships between the mean runoff
values (y- Q or W) at the observation points and the runoff factors (x~ = F,
Hmean' fforest~ ~d others) which within the limita of~the discriminated hydrolog-
ical regions are approximated by linear or fractional-power law empir.ical equations
in the form . ~
y-ax+b, y=l., a1x)+b~
I
y = K (F-F~)".
It should be emphasized that the structure and parameters of these empirical equa-
tions do not follow from the "theoretical" equations (1.1)-(1.110).
An empirical equation of the type was evidently used for the first time by
A. G. ICurdov in [2, 3] for computing_the minimum runoff of small rivers (in the ex-
ample of rivers in the Central Chernozem oblasts~~ At a later date, an appropriate
equation of the type
_ - _Deu~c = 10-1 a (F k fo)"
with allowance for the conversion factors ~1 =.QpQ80y to the minimum 30-day dis-
charges with the guaranteed probability p=~15-979~ was uaed for the entire terri-
tory of the USSR by A. M. Vladimirov in [1~ 4] trithout citations to the work of
A. G. Kur~ov [2, 3]..This fact ia noted in the xeviewed monograph, but at the same
time it is asserted without basis that A. G. Rurdov glve a theoretical validation
of the purely empirical formula
It is also necessary to note a number of other substantial shortcomings of the re-
viewed monograph:
1. The study examines only the mean long-term ruaoff values (Q, W) and does not
. give any reco~endations for determining the computed runoff values (QP, Wp) with
a stipulated excess probability p.
2. No consideration is given to the most progressive method for mapping or region-
alization of parameters (quasiconstants to use the terminology of M. A. Velikan-
ov), "purified" of the influence of azonal factors~ widely used in practical work.
3. No consideration is given to and no recommendations are made concerning the
method for determining the computed parametera on the basis of obaervatior,~ on
ad~acent analogue rivers, with allowance for the difference in zonal and azonal
factors entering into the computation formula, widely used in hydrological comput-
ations.
4. In the water balance equa.tions the author always placea t in front of its terms,
whereas it is necessary to write only one sign, "plua" or "minus~" otherwise it is
impossible to write a program for computations on an electronic computer. The val-
ues of some terms can be positive or negative.
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'1'he materials presented ahove make it possihle to conclude that the reviewed mono-
graph, with respect to both its content and its form of exposition, was written at
a low theoretical level, without regard for modern methods for computing river run-
off.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Vladimirov, A. M., STOK REK V MALOVODNYY PERIOD GODA (River Runoff in a Low-
Water Period of the Year), L eningrad, 1976.
2. Kurdov, A. G., "The Problem of Studying Minimum Runoff of Small Rivers,"
METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 1, 1954.
3. Kurdov, A. G., "Method for Computing the Minimum Runoff of Small Rivers (In
the Example of Rivers of the Central Chernozem Oblasts)," TRUDY III VSESOYUZ-
NOGO GIDROLOGICHESKOGO S"YEZDA (Transacttons of the 'I'hird All-Un3on Hydrolog-
ical Congress), Vol 2, Leningrad, 1959.
4. RUKOVODSTVO PO OPREDELENIYU RASCHETNYKH GIDROLOGICHESKIKH KIiARAKTERISTIK
(Manual on Determination of Computed Hydrological Characteristics), Lenin-
grad, 1973.
~
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REVIEW OF THE MONOGRAPH 'MULTISIDED INVESTIGATIONS.OF RESERVOIRS. NO III. THE
MOZHAYSKOYE RESERVOIR' ('KOMPLEKSNYYE ISSLEDOVANIYA VODOKHRANILISHCH. VYP III.
MOZHAYSKOYE VODOKHRANILISHCHE'), EDITED BY V. D. BYKOV AND K. K. EDELSHTEYN,
MOSCOW, IZDATEL'STVO MGU, 1979, 399 PAGES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I~IDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 121-122
[Review by S. L. Vendrov, profesaor] .
[Text] The construction of the Mozhayakoye Reservoir, aituated in the upper course
of the Moskva (t4oscow) River, took place in 1955-1960. Together with ather reser-
voi'rs of the Moskvorets%aya Hydrographic.System it plays an important role in the
water supply of Moscow. And this role.has been increasing during recent years be-
cause the southweatern and western parts of the capital are rapidly developing. Now
already more than 1/4 of,the total volume of water uaed in Moacow water lines comes
from the Moscow River due to its own ru~of"f~and also from a right-bank tributary
of the Volga River, the Vazuza River tliroug~i the water-divide Vazuzkaya Iiydro-
technical System.
In 1965 the Geography Faculty of Moscow State University organized the Krasnovid-
avskaya Scientific Research Laboratory,for the study of reaervoirs. It has grown
into a fully developed scientific inetitute in which there are hydrological, hydro-
chemical, hydrobiological and ichthyological'sections. The Krasnovidovskaya Labor-
atory organized an interfaculty complex expedition for the study of reservoirs
= which included specialists of the geography, biology and soil science faculties,
etc. As a rule 50-70 specialiats work annually on the expedition. The Hydrometeor-
ological Service r,pened a meteorological etation at the Mozhayakoye Reaervoir. One
of the important objecta of expeditionary and laboratory work~is fhe Mozhayskoye
Reservoir, where the laboratory has developed ita research methods.
ilmong the great many publicat~ons on different aspecte of the hydrological, hydro-
ehemical and biological regimes of reservoirs there are not many inveatigations
having a complex character which would ehed light on the aSove-mentioned processes
in their interrelationship and interaction for the purpose of rev~ea].,ing the factors
governing water quality.
The monograpti is characterized by a highly varied, multisided analysis of field in-
vestigations and results closely related to the economic role played by the Mozhay-
skoye and other reservoirs of the Moekvoretskaya Syatem in thP water eupply of
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Moscow. It is therefore not without reason that five chapters (VI-X) of the
twelve are devoted to different processes governing definite properties of
water and characterizing its quality, including: radiation and heat balance,
dynamics and formation of winter and summer water masses; mineralization and
salt composition of the water; balance of principal ions; regime of biogenous sub-
stances, nitrogen in silts, trace elements and organic ma.tter; suspended..sedi-
ments and accumulation of alluvium; prima.ry pro duction of photosynthesis, phyto-.
and zooplankton, micro- and macrobenthos. All these sections are tied in well to
the earlier presented characteristics of the watershed, runoff from it and the
water regime of the reservoir.
In connection with the recreational role of the Mozhayskoye Reservoir a large chap-
ter.is devoted to the ichthyofauna, this being done in the interests.of recreation-
al fishermen. ~
The book is well documented with factual material, is illustrated with more than
70 figures and is supplied with a long bibliography. The group of authors, con-
sisting of professors, ~nstructors and scientific specialists .in many departments
at the university, made use of publications and research materials on the hydrol-
ogy and hydrobiology of other reservoirs in this same geographic zone, which has
breatly enriched the book.
By way of critical comments it can be said that the range of problems discussed
in the final chapter, devoted to the influence of the Mozhayskoye Reservoir on
the environment, should be expanded, with an examination of the mutual influence
of the water body and the adjacent terrain. 'Th,e publishing house of Moscow State
University is to be reproached for the fact that the book, as indicated by the
publication data, was in production for almost four years.
However, we assure the reader that it is by no means out of date, for which it is
necessary to thank its editors, who ensured the necessary revision of some data.
The reviewed monograph is a useful book in both scientific and practical respects.
It will undoubtedly also be used in other colleges in the country.
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NINETIETH BIRTEIDAY OF YEVGENIYA SAMOYLOVNA RUBINSIiTEYN
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 p 123
[Article by T. V. Pokrovskaya and L. G. Polozova]
[Text] Professor Yevgeniya Samoylovna Rubinshteyn, doctor of geographical sciences,
the oldest worker of the Hydrometeorological Service, an outstanding clima.tologist
of the Soviet Union and a Meritorious Scientific Worker of the RSFSR, marked her
90th birthday in January 1981. Yevgeniya Samoylovna began to work at the Main Geo-
physical Observatory as a scientific specialist 65 years ago.
~ , ~,~.s
x
. ~ ~V~~ ,
A
J~~,. .
.'E:
`i:. .
t~ ~'F
. '~t,
I E" o- il
4'~,~~~~ i I`'
In pre-revolutionary Russia the path to science was not easy for a woman, but Yev-
geniya Samoylovna advanced along this path with success and without restraints due
to her diver.sified capabilities, which she manifested early, her quest for know-
ledge, exceptionaZ capacity and love for work. In 1908 she graduated from second-
ary school with a gold medal. In 1913 she completed the Higher Female (Bestuzhev-
skiye) Courses and in 1914 took a university examination in the physical and
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mathematical sciences, receiving a first-degree diploma. That same year she be-
gan her work at the Main Physical Observatory as a nonstaff computer. In this
modest post Yevgeniya Samoylovna immediately undertook a major task: the collec-
tion and processing of data on air temperature in Russia for the purpose of sub-
sequent major generalization. This task was included in the plan for a climato-
graphy of Russia prepared with the participation of A. I. Voyeykov, with whom
Yevgeniya Samoylovna came into personal contact during these years.
- The first monograph by Yevgeniya Samoylovna was published later, in 1926-1927. It
was devoted to a characterization and analysis of air temperature in the European
part of the USSR.
During the course of her activity Yevgeniya Samoylovna has been concerned with
major scientific problems of climatology and carried out fundamental investiga-
tions and generalizations as an author, scientific director and work organizer.
To a considerable degree as a result of her ener~,y there was assurance of such im-
portant aspects of the activity of the Hydrometeorological Service as the ration-
alization of the work of the meteorological network, creation of a unified group
of climatologists working by themselves and at observatories, and carrying out
major generalizations of the climate of the USSR, as well as supporting the
national economy with climatological information.
Over the course of a numb~r of decades Yevgeniya Samoylovna headed climatological
subdivisions of the Main Geophysical Observatory, and durin~ the prewar year.Q was
director of the Institute of~Climatology, at that time, to~ether with other branch
institutes, forming part of the observatory.
T}~e lists of personal scientific works of Yevgeniya Samoylovna are ~xtremely lon~.
They contain more than 100 titles, including major munographs, articles and text-
books. She has performed great services in the training of professional climatol-
ogists.
In 1976, after working at the Main Geophysical Observatory for 62 years, Yevgeniya
Samoylovna left its walls for reasons of health. But she still remains a scientist,
retaining interest in that field of science to which she devoted her life, and is
actively working in this field.
Her book entitled ODNORODNOST' METEOROLOGICHESKIKH RYADOV VO VREMENI I PROSTRANSTVE
V SVYAZI S ISSLEDOVANIYEM IZMENENIYA KLIMATA (Uniformity of Meteorological Series
in Time and Space in Relation to an Investigation of Climatic Change) is dated 1979.
Yevgeniya Samoylovna shares her great experience and knowledge in that field of
climatology which is destined to ensure a proper approach to study of the nature
of clima.te in its most complex, interesting and timely manifestations temporal
variations and changes.
The creative activity of Yevgeniya Samoylovna is truly surprising. She continues
to live for the interests of climatology, concerned as to coa~pletion of studies
concejved long ago but still incomplete and realizing many of her scientific ideas.
~'evgeniya Samoylovna is interested in all events of our time, both scientific and
social.
We wish Yevgeniya Samoylovna health, strength, and all the conditions for realizing
her sci_entific plans.
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SEVENTY-FIFTH BIRTHDAY OF VASILIY ALEKSEYEVICH BELINSKIY
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 p 124
[Article by members of the Geography Faculty at Moscow State University]
[Text] Professor Vasiliy Alekseyevich Belinskiy, doctor of physical and mathemat-
ical sciences, a member of the CPSU since 1925, ma.rked his 75th birthday and 50
years of scientific and teaching activity on 30 December 1980.
. I Y'
~
l.`
. .'Y'fil
f~i
l_>�~
V. A. Belinskiy was born in a poor peasant family. In 1923 he graduated from inter-
mediate school and in 1930 from Moscow State University in the Geophysics Depart-
ment in the Physics Faculty. The Moscow Hydrometeorological Institute was created
on the basis of this department with th~ active participation of V. A. Belinskiy.
He became its first director. At the same time he headed the Moscow Division of
the Aerological Institute.
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After 1930 V. A. Belinskiy, in addition to an enormous amount of scientific and
sc:ientific-organizational activity, did much teaching work as an instructor and
as a department head at the Moscow Hydrometeorological Institute and later at
the Higher Military Hydrometeorological I,nstitute, Moscow Finance Institute and
P~oscow State University. Vasiliy Alekseyevich was the author of the first Soviet
textbook on dynamic meteorology, in which he simply and meticulously, at a high
scientific level, dealt with the most complex subject matter. He authored text-
books on higher mathematics and aerology. A great n~unber of course and diploma
~~rojects, as well as candidate's dissertations, were prepared under his direc-
tion.
V. A. Belinskiy is also known as a tireless researcher and experimenter, f311ed
aiith energy. While working in the post-war years at the Central Aerological Ob-
servatc~ry, he repeatedly made research flights in balloons. While a professor in
the Ge~graphy Faculty at Moscow S.tate University he organized and headed the sci-
entific research work of the Department of Meteorology and Climatology in the
P~mirs, in the Caucasus and in many other regions of the USSR.
He published more than 150 scientific studies devoted to the most timely problems
in hydrometeorological science. Beginning in the 1950's, V. A. Belinskiy undertook
studies of radiation climatology, laying the principles and developing a new
direction investigation of the regime of ultraviolet radiation and the bio-
climatic aspects associated with it. The monograph UL'TRAFIOLETOVAYA RADIATSIYA
SOLNTSA I NEBA (Ultraviolet Radiation of the Sun and Sky) (1968), written by him
in collaboration with his students, is widely known. He was awarded the D. N. Anu-
- chin Prize for the atlas UL'TRAFIOLETOVAYA RADIATSIYA SOLNTSA I NEBA (U1Lraviolet
Radiation of the Sun and Sky).
Numerous students, friends and colleagues warmly and sincerely congratulate belov-
- ed Vasiliy Alekseyevich Belinskiy on his noteworthy anniversary and wish him good
health and great successes in implementation of his creative plans.
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AWARDS OF THE USSR ALL-UNION EXHIBITION OF ACHIEVII~NTS IN THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 pp 124-126
[Article by M. M. Kuznetsova] ~ ~
[Text] The Main Committee~of.the USSR Exhibition of A~hievements in the National
Economy has presented awards to participants in the USSR All-Union Exhibition of
Achievements in the National Economy in the ap~cialized exhibitiona "USSR Hydro-
meteorological Center 50 Yeare," "The Environment Reliable Monitoring" aad
the specialized exposition "Investigation of the Free Atmoephere," held in the
pavilion "Hydrometeorological Service."
First-Degree Diploma: ~
USSR Order of Lenin Hydrometeorological Scientific Research Center: for develop-
ing a system for processing routine meteorological information used in preparing
numerical forecasts of the fields of ineteorological elements, making it possible
to accelerate the time required for the preparation of weather forecasts and in-
creasing their quality;
Central Aerological Observat~ry: for work on sy.atems engineering for the meas-
urement system and development of the scientific-methodological and technical prin-
ciples for the nosecone of the IrII~iR-06M rocket. The results of the inveatigations
made it possible, when using a standard engine, to increase the altitude for as-
cent of the payload to 20 km and reduce the zone of danger from the falling of
the nosecone and engine;
. Order of the Red Banner of Labor Institute of Applied Geophyaics: fox theoret-
ical and experimental development of a system for monitoring the tranaport af eub-
stances contaminating the air across the nat~onal boundary of the USSR, ensuring
the f unctioning of this syatem and carrying out the international obligations of
the USSR foliowing from the "Convention on the Trans-Boundary Contamination of Air
Over Great Distances With Respect to the Monitoring and Exchange of Data on the
Trans-Boundary Flows of Substances Contaminating the Air";
Central Design Bureau of Hydrometeorological Instrument Making: for developing
and introducing an automatic station for monitoring atmospheric contamination
(ASKZA avtomaticheskaya stantsiya kontrolya zagryazneniya atmosfery).
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The annual savings from use of the station was 28,700 rubles.
Second-Degree Diploma:
Order of the Red Banner of Labor Main Geophysical Observatory imeni A. I. Voyey-
kov: for developing a method for the meteorological forecasting of air contamina-
tion and formulation of recommendations on re~uction of effluent at enterprises
for the purpose of preventing an increase in the concentrations of impurities
during unfavorable periods;
State Oceanographic Institute: for formulating the principles for the organiza-
tion of a hydrobiological network in the seas and introduction of a method for mon-
itoring the quality of sea waters on the basis of hydrobiological indices, prepara-
tion of reviews of the quality of sea waters on the basis of hydrobiological indic-
es and the carrying out of joint Soviet-Swedish expeditions in the Baltic;
Institute of Experimental Meteorology: for developing and introducing a system
for observations of soil contamination in the USSR by metals and chlororganic pest-
icides, development and introduction of inethods for determining DDT and its metab-
olites in soils and methods for ascertaining the gross quantities of inetals in
soils;
Laboratory for the Monitoring of the Environment and Climate: for participation
in investigations and coordination of work on the problem "Global System for Mon-
itoring the Environment" in the scientific-technical cooperation of the member
countries of the Socialist Economic Bloc and implementing ~oint studies in the
fie].d of many-sided background monitoring, for the preparation and development of
a program for a joint expeditionary experiment carried out in the territory of the
Hungarian People's Republic in 1979, the introduction of the methods tested in the
course of the experiment in the network of complex stations in the member countries
of the Socialist Economic Bloc.
Third-Degree Diplomas:
- Uzbek Republic Administration of Hydromete~orol.ogy and Environmental Monitoring~
for developing and introducing a method ~or predicting air contamination in Tash-
kentskaya Oblast, a complex of ineasures for reducing effluent into the atmosphere
during the effective period of the forecast, the effectiveness of which is evalu-
ated on the basis of the decrease in the concentration of imp~r~.ties in the atmo-
sphere;
Lithuanian Republic Administration of Hydrometeorology and Environmental ;4onitor-
ing: for operational prediction of high levels of atraospheric contamination, and
also routine introduction of forecasts of background contamination for the city of
Vilnyus;
Ural Territorial Administration of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitor-
ing: for carrying out investigations and refinement of a method for predicting
high levels of air contamination and introduction of these forecasts into routine
practice;
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Irkutsk Territorial Administration of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Mon-
itoring: for prediction and prevention of high levels of atmospheric cantamina-
tion and introduction into routine practice of a meChod for predicting hi~h levels
c~f contamination of ltmospheric air under the conditiona prevailing in EaRtern
5iberta;
Upper Volga Territorial Administration of Hydrometeorology and Environmental
Monitoring: for the introduction, on a routine basis, of a method for predicting
high levels of atmospheric contamination and work on the organization of the mon-
itoring of atmospheric contamination in the region of the "Yasnaya Polyana" Botan-
ical Reserve;
Kazakh Republic Administration of Hydrometeorology and EnvLronmental Monitoring:
for the introduction, on a practical basis, of a method for predicting high levels
of atmospheric contamination and organization of a system of observations and
warnings of anticipafied dangerous conditions of air contamination over the terri-
tory of Kazakhstan;
Sakhalin Territorial Administration of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Mon-
itoring: for carrying out varied hydrobiological obaervations over the territory
of Sakhalinskaya Oblast, the introduction of the results of investigations in the
national economy, the development of a acale for evaluating the contamination of
rivers in the southern part of Sakhalin with respect to functional characteristics
for an expert evaluation of the quality of waters and the state of water ecosys-
tems.
A number of workers of the USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmen-
tal Monitoring have been awarded the Diploma of Honor and medals of the USSR All-
Union Exhibition of Achievements in the National Economy.
The Diploma of Honor was awarded to:
Sh. A. Musayelyan, M. A. Petrosyants, V. G. Shishkov, D. A. Drogaytsev,.P. S. T~in-
eykin, V. V. Rakhmanov, N. A. Aristov (USSR Hydrometeorological Center), I. S.
Moshnikov, G. A. Kokin (Central Aerological Obaervatory), A. A. Shidlovskiy (Cen-
tral Design Bureau of Hydrometeorological Instrtmnent Making)
A Gold Medal was awarded to:
Ye. G. Lomonosov, V. N. Parshin (USSR Hydrometeorological Center), V. I. Yermakov
(Central Aerological Observatory), I. M. Nazarov (Institute of Applied Geophysics),
A. I. Mekhovich (Central Design Buresu of Iiydrometeorological Inetrwnent Making).
A Silver Medal was awarded to:
S. L. Belousov} B. S. Chuchkalov, P. P. Vasil'yev, A. A. Akulinicheva, A. I. Foti-
yev, V. P. Sadokov, A. A. Vasil'pev, Z..K. Abuzyarov, T. A. Pobetova, M. G. Lub-
nin, V. A. Fedorov (USSR Hydrometeorological Center), Ye. A. Besyadovakiy, S. P.
Perov (Central Aerological Obaervatory), V. G. Khvostov, I. V. Gryta'kiv,
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A. G. Roshchin, I. P. Kuz'minykh (Central Design Bureau of Hydrometeorological In-
strument Makin~), A. Ya. Pressman, A. Yakovlev, V. A. Abakumov, I. B. Pudovkina,
M. M. Novikov, Sh. D. Fridman (Institute of Applied Geophysics), L. R. Son'kin
(Main Geophysical Observatory), A. V. Tsyban' (State Oceanographic Inatitute),
I~. I. Babkina, E. P. Makhon'ko, M. I. Allenov (Institute of.Experimental Meteor-
ology), F. Ya. Rovinskiy, L. M. Filippova (Aerial Methods Laboratory), I. V. Tsvet-
kov (State Committee on Hydrometeorology), V. I. Kuznetsov (Northwestern Administra-
- tion of the Hydrometeorological Service).
A Bronze Medal was awarded to:
L. V. Berkovich, T. G. Ivanidze, T. S. Kruzhkova, R. G. Petukhova, I. A. Petrichen-
lco, Ye. S. Kuryleva, N. N. Bel'skaya, A. D. Chistyakov, N. Ye. Minakova, K. A. Vas--
yukov, M. A. Sorochinskiy, A. Snitkovskiy, td. M. Zakharova, G. K. Veselov, G. T.
Ivanova, A. I. Bostrykina, T. M. Fedunova, A. I. Ugryumov, N. A. Chuzavkova, M. V.
Rubinshteyn, K. M. Sirotov, M. A. Suehkov, N. S. Nechayeva, Ye. S. Zmiyeva, N. D.
Yefremova, N. F..Dement'yev, V. N. Pupkov, A. N. Derevyanko, Ye. S. Zverintseva,
V. V. Brezhnev, 0. M. Kastin, Yu. L. Shmel'kin, Yu. K. Fedorov, V. I. Mamontov, N. I.
Rumyantsev, A. I. Vanyushin, N. S. Yefimov, L. M. Neronova (USSR Hydrometeorological
Center), Yu. V. Vasil'yev, A. P. Papov, V. M. Ignatov, V. N. Alin, V. I. Tatarenko,
A. V. Komotskov, S. A. Vyazankin, V. I. Kon'kov, A. I. Zolkin, A. F. Chizhov (Cen- .
tral Aerological Observatory), V. A. Mal~skiy, A. M. Rudometkin, N. T. Romanenko,
V. G. Pilipyuk, V. P. Smyk, G. F. Markov, V. I. Timofeyev, V. G. Avdeyev, Ye. M.
Pakhomchik (Central Design Bureau of Hydrometeorological Instrument Making), V. F.
Shl:ilev (Far Eastern Scientific Research Institute), A. V. Lysak, V. F. Brendakov,
N. I. Kholikova, V. P. Krivchikova, A. I. Koloskov, S. B. Iokhel'son, V. M. Artemov,
V. I. Rozhdestvenskaya, 0. S. Renne, V. N. Vasilenko, V. P. Chirkov (Institute of
Applied Geophysics), E. Yu. Bezuglaya, I. A. Yankovskiy (Main Geophysical Observa-
tory), 0. A. Klimenko, V. V. Fadeyev, V. M. Mukhin, N. I. Katalevskiy (Geochemical
Institute), G. V. Panov, Yu. L. Volodkovich, N. A. Afanas'yeva (State Oceanographic
Institute), Ts. I. Bobovnikova, N. D. Tret'yakov, S. G. Malakhov, Ya. I. Gaziyev,
G. G. Belov, E. G. Tertyshnik, G. N. Klochkov (Institute of Experimental Meteorol-
ogy), L. I. Buyanova, A. Kh. Ostromogil'slciy, L. V. Burtseva (Aerial Methods Labor-
atory), A. I. Pankov, M. N. Popov (State Coimnittee on Hydrometeorology), N. V. Koro-
leva, L. A. Pavlenko (Uzbek Administration of the Hydrome.teorological Service),
R. P. Chivilite (Lithuanian Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service),
A. N. Andrianov, S. L. Basova, I. M. P4arkovets (Northwestern Administration of the
llydrometeorological Service), I. A. Shevchuk (Western Siberian Scientific Research
Inatitute), N. A. Shapareva (Ural Adminiatration of the Hydrometeo rological Ser-
vice), Yu. I. Onanko (Ukrainian Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service),
I. N. Ponomarenko (Ukrainian Scientific Research Institute), B. B. Chebanenko, V. P.
Zinov'yev (Irkutsk Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service), D. V. Vino-
kurova,~P. A. Borisova (Upper Volga Administration of the Hydrometeorological Ser-
vice), K. Zh. Omarova (IC~zakh Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service),
L. P. Gorelova, V. S. Gladkov (Central.Volga Hydrometeorological Observatory), V. S.
l;uznetsov (Northern Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service), L. V. Daksh
(Latvian Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service), L. I. Sokhina (Murman-
s.koye Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service), N. P. Usova (Saktialinskoye
Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service), V. G. Prokacheya (State Hydro-
logical Institute), 0. N. Frantsuzov (Len~ingrad Division of the State Oceanographic
Institute).
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The total number of participants �rom the USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorology
and Environmental Monitoring was 478 persona. In addition to workers. of the State
Couunittee on Rydrometeorology and the main exhthit of the USSR.Exhibition of
Achievements in the National Economy in the "Hydrometeorological Service" pavi].ion,
awards were also given to outside organizations directly participating in the de-
velopment of a number of themes.
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CONFERENCES, MEETINGS AND SEMINARS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No l, Jan 81 pp 126-127
[Article by N. S. Shapovalova and I. V. Trosnikov]
[TextJ An international conference on the scientific results of the Atlantic Trop-
ical Experiment (GATE), carried out in 1974 within the framework of the GARP trop-
ical subprogram, was held in Kiev during the period 17-23 September 1980.
The conference was organized by a~oint scientific coimmittee working under the ,
aegis of the World Meteorological Orgaaization and the USSR Natiional GARP Com-
mittee with the collaboration of the Administration of the Hydrometeorological .
Service Ukrainian SSR and was held in accordance with resolutions of the Joint
Organizing Co~ittee (JOC) of the WIrID and collaborating agencies (JOC-XIII, 14-20
' April 1974, Stockholm and JOC-XIV, 13-19 April 1978, Mexico City). According to
. these resolutions the most important GATE results were to be set forth in a mono-
graph and its contents should be discussed at the conference.
In accordance with the recommendations of the 17th session of the wo.rking group
on numeri~al experimentation the preparation of the monograph, which was given
the name "Synthesis of GATE Scientific Results," was to be carried out in three
stages. In the first stage the invited experts prspared the sections of the m~no-
graph assigned to them. The second stage was the calling of a conference at which
there was to be presentation and discussion of the reports of invited experts. The
third stage provided for the experts to present the finalized texts of sections of
the monograph, taking into account the proposals and comments expressed at the
conterence.
Participating in the work of the conference were scientists from Great Britain,
Brazil, East Germany, Mexico, Rumania, United States, France, West Germany and
the USSR. The chairman of the international organizing committee for preparin~
for and holding the conference was M. A. Petrosyants, at the same time repreaent-
ing the ~oint scientific committee under WMO suspices. Among the members of the
international organizing committee aC the conference were P. Roundtree (Great
Britain), N. P. Skripnik (Ukrainian SSR) and I. G. Sitnikov (WMO). Yu. V. Tari
beyev represented the USSR National GARP Committee.
The conferees heard 13 reports of invited experts who discussed all chapters of
the monograph.
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The monograph.hegins with the section "Principal Tasks of the Atlantic Tropical Ex-
periment GARP," prepared by M. A. Petros.yants.(USSR). This section sets forth the
history of planning of GATE, the oh~ectives.and components of the basic program and
i~s five subprograms (synoptic scale subprogram, con~rection subprogram, bounda~y
layer investigation subprogram, radiation subprogram, o~eanographic subprogram).
The tasks under the basic GATE program were defined in.the following way:
1) ensure means for evaluating the influence of microscale.weather systems in the
tropics on macroscale circulation (synoptic scale);
2) facilitation of the development of numerical modeling and forecasting methods.
A report by the former director of the GATE s:cientific-administratior. group, I. Kut-
ner (United States), entitled "Observational Strategy of GATE (Retrospective Look),"
in addition .to scientific results, examined organiaational, technical and economic
problems of GATE. In discussing this report the conferees expreased the unanimous
- opinion that the success of GATE was favor�ed hy a properly selected strategy for
implementation of the experiment and the spirit of international cooperation.
I. Kutner also presented a report hy T. N. Krishnamur.t~ and R. G. Pash (United
States) entitled "Macroscale Mean State of the Atmosphere During GATE." The report
gives the results of an analysis of the a~ind and o.cean surface temperature fields
and some other thermodynamic characteristica of the atmosphere and ocean aurface
in the course of the three phases of GATE. A report by R. W. Burpee and R. G. Reid
(United States), entitled "Synoptic Scale Movementa," was'presented by P. Roundtree
(Great Britain). It was dev~nted to a.review of investigationa of tropical waves and
disturbances mac~e on the basis of GATE data. The review included the problems in-
volved in the development and energy characteristics of easterly waves in the West
Africa and Eastern Atlantic regions and their relationships to convection and pre-
cipitation. The problems involved in macroscale disturbanaes of the ICZ and the de-
velopment of hurricanes were also discussed.
Ye. M. Dobryshman (USSR), in a report entitled "Theoretical Investigations of Trop-
ical Waves," gave a review of existing movements in the equatorial atmoaphere and
gave the results of his own inveatigations of wave disturbances arising in the
equatorial region. Much interest was shown in the resulte obtained by the author
in his study of nonlinear effects.
A report by A. Gilchrist, P. Roundtree and D. Shaw (Great Brit~in), entitled "Macro-
scale Numerical M~odeling," gave a review of studies (prepared uaing GATE data) on
the collection of sets of data and on macroacale modeling.
The theoretical and observational aspects of study of the upper l~y.ers of the trop-
ical ocean on the basis of GATE data ~zere covered in reporta by H. Zilder (Weat
Germany) and G. Philander (United Statea).
A report by A. I. Fal'kovich (USSR), entttled "Movementa of Scalea A/B and~B of the
Balance in the iCZ Region," gave data on the structura and development of the ICZ
during the GATE period, and also on components o� the energy balance for the
atmospheric column of air during different perioda of ICZ development. The problems
involved in interaction of movements of different scales are diacusaed.
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A report by A. Betts and R. Hous.e (United States), entitled "Clouds, Convection and
c:unvective Models,'' devoted to a review of the reaulte of atudy of tropical convec-
tive sys.tems, ob.tained on the hasis o� GATE datas ~as of considerable interest.
Inves.tigations of the atmosphertc boundary layer.in the GATE region were discussed
in reports by Yu. A~ Volkov (USSR), entitled "Surface Layer (Interaction Between
the Ocean and the Atmosphere) and Its Parameterization," and H. Hintzpeter and E.
Augstein (Wes.t Germany), entitled "Structure of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Un-
der Different Convective Conditions (Observations and Models)."
In the section "Radiation Processes ar~d Their Parameterization" reports were pre-
sented by Ye. M. Feygel'son and K. Ya. Kondrat'yev (USSR). The latter report was
read tiy M. A. Prokof'yev.
The rasults of GATE were s.ummarized in the "Final Comments," a report prepared by
M. A. Petrosyants (USSR).
In addition to ttiE~reports of the invited experts, the conferees heard 23 addi-
tional reports. 1~aenty of thes.e were related to the subject matter of individual
chapters of the monograph and three were devoted to methodological problems relat-
ed to the reliahility and representativeness of observational data obtained during
the GATE period. Taking into account the importance of studiea of a methodological
character, the conference adopted a reaolution to the effect that methodological
problems must lae reflected in tlie monograph.
After the work of the conference was completed a conference of invited experts and
organizers was called on problems. involved in further preparation of the monograph
(Kiev, 24 Septemher 1980). This conFer2nce was. attended by J. Smagorinsky, head
of the WMO joint scientific committee, and Professor B. R. Deez, director of the
WMO joint planning group. This conference summarized the results of the earlier
conference, heard the opinions of experts on individual chapters of the monograph
and dis.cussed the content of the "Final Cou~ents" presented by M. A. Petrosyants.
Three reviewers for each chapter of the monograph were named and a plan for com-
pleting work on its final preparation and publication was outlined.
. ,
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NOTES FROM ABROAD
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 81 p 128
[Article by B. I. Silkin]
[Text] As reported in SCIENCE NEWS, Vol 116, No 19,~p 324, 1979, about a half-cen-
tury ago the Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovic formulated the hypothesis that
the onset of glaciation on the earth was associated with cyclic changes in the
orbit of our planet around the sun, affecting the quantity and distribution of
the energy received from the sun. Milankovic mentioned four such cycles: with a
duration.of 23,000 years, leading to changes in the time of closeat approach of
these two celestial bodies (r.ow the earth and the aun are closest to each other
in January, but in 10,000 years this will occur in July); with a duration of 41,000
years, during which the inclination of the earth's orbit becomes almost perpendic-
ular to the axis of its characteristi.c rotation, which decreases the contrast be-
tween the seasons of the year and hinders the thawing of polar ice; cyclea with a
duration of 93,000 and 413,000 yeara, during which the orbit is transformed from
an almost perfect circle into a more elliptical orbit, which leads to changes in
the distances between the sun and the earth, exerting an influence on the season
of the year.
/ Dlfterent researchers have been able, using cores taken during drilling, to ahow
the reality of existence of the three M.ilankovic cycles, except the last, ths long-
est, which remained hypothetical. And only now have acientific specialists at the
University of Cincinatti (Ohio,.United States) M. Briskin gnd J. Harrell found evi-
dence of climatic variations corresponding to a cycle with a duration of 413,000
years.
Studying cores of aediments taken in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and taking in
the last 2 million years, they detenained the quantity of ice present in the
earth's polar caps. They also measured the ratio of oxygen isotopes 0-18 and 0-16
in remnants of fossil plankton. The periods of glaciation were establiehed from
the relative increase in the quantity of 0-18, attributable to the fact that 0-16
is held by the ice. The content of the coarse fraction (heavier particlea) in the
sediments indicated periods with more active erosion, caused by melting of the ice.
And in any of these parameters it was possible to trace three complete cycles with
a duration of approximately 413,000 years each.
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Similar evidence was also obtained in a study of the periodicity of changes in
magnetic declination, detected in magnetic rocks. It is possible tnat this is
nor associated directly with clima.tic phenomena, but a correlation between the
changes in the earth's orbit and variations of the earth's magnetic field is en-
tirely probable.
Earlier a cycle with a duration of 413,000 years could not be detected due to the
absence of a corresponding statistical method. Existing methods required the
availability of a long series of data, from which the researcher should select
samples equally distant in time from one another. The method employed by M. Bris-
kin and J. Harrell makes it possible to overcome the lack of part of the data.
The fact that their conclusions are based on materials of regions of the Atlantic
and Pacific Oceans which are remote from one another and on different measurement
parameters makes the conclusions, confirming ti~e M. Milankovic hypothesis, quite
retiable.
As reported in NATURE, Vol 286, p 114, 1980, and in NEW SCIENTIST, Vol 87, No 1211.
p 287, 1980, a group of British participants in FGGE, headed by R. Hyde, has car-
ried out a study of the inf luence of circulation of air masses on the rate of the
earth's rotation. It is known that the seasonal movements of such masses at a
~;lobal scale are capable of leading to changes in the length of day, amounting to
milliseconds.
The observations now being made are some of the first cases of direct measurement
_ of interrelated changes in atmospheric circulation and the length of day at the
scale of several days, not a season. These measurements confirmed well the theory
that the atmosphere, despite its considerably lesser mass than of the earth's
solid body, is sometimes capable of causing changes in its rotation. This, evi-
- dently, is attributable to its positioning over the very surface of the planet
and as a result of this there is an adequate angular momentum for the effect.
The measured effects attain only milliseconds. For example, atmospheric processes
evidently caused a change in the duration of a day by 1 msec, occurring between
21 January and 7 February 1979, and by 1.5 msec, noted between 18 I~fay and 2 June
1979. ~
It is noted that the contribution of the atmosphere to the total angular momentum
of the earth's rotation changes together with the change in zonal circulation of
the air envelope, wher~ large air massPS are driven in the direction of the equator
or away from it.
It is also possible to trace a definite relationship between these processea and
the solar wind. It was demonstrated earlier that activiz2tion af proceases on the
sun has consequences reflected in the weather in the high latitudes of the earth's
uorthern hemisphere. It is evident that the arrival in the earth's neighborhood '
of an additional large stream of part,icles forming the solar wind somehow stimul-
ates the development of systems of low atmospheric pressure which thereafter move
rapidly from wes't to east at the latitudes of Alaska and Northern Europe.
From the point of view of atmospheric circulation this is equivalent to the movement
of air masses precisely of the type which, as is now confirmed by FGGE data, can
cause changes in the length of day which can be measured. .
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Thus, an ohservational confirmation has been obtained of the exis.tence of relation-
ships between changes in the level of s.pot formation on the sun and variations in
the length of day, amounting to milliseconds. Until now many astronomers and geo-
~hysicists have regarded these relationships to be improbable.
(:OPYRIGHT: "Meteorologiya i gidrologiya", 1981
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